Department of Science and Technology

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration

Impacts of Drought in the Philippines

by
Rosalina G. de Guzman2

1Presented

at the International Workshop on Drought and Extreme Temperatures:

Preparedness and Management for Sustainable Agriculture, Forestry

2Philippine

Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration, Quezon

City, Philippines

Outline
1.
1. Background
Background Information
Information
2.
2. Impacts
Impacts of
of Drought
Drought
3.
3. Adaptation
Adaptation Strategies
Strategies
4.
4. Drought
Drought and
and Early
Early Warning
Warning System
System

Background information
The Philippines
a natural disaster-prone country

large number of islands (>7,000);

vast, irregular coastline (17,000 kms);
an average of 19.6 tropical cyclones a year (with 8 to 9
crossing the country triggering floods/landslides);
abundant rainfall, yet some areas are semi-arid; and
statistically significant increases in daytime/nighttime
temperatures.

 Major

drought years are associated

with El Nino events

El

Nino years are associated with less

number of typhoons

Observed Mean Annual Mean Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines

Period: 1951-2006 (departures from the 1961-1990 normal values)
1.5
Anomaly
5 year running mean

Temperature Anomaly (C)

Linear (5 year running mean)

0.5

y = 0.0109x - 0.2423

-0.5

-1

-1.5
51

56

61

66

71

76

81

86

91

Year

An increase of 0.6104C from 1951-2006

96

01

06

Tropical Cyclones tracks in the WNP

Tracks of tropical cyclones that formed in the Western North Pacific (WNP)
during the period 1948-2006 1728 TC ( 1148 entered the PAR) 66% of TC in in
WNP enter or formed in the PAR

ANNUAL FREQUENCY OF OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL

CYCLONES WITHIN THE PHILIPPINE AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY (PAR)

35

32

30

27
25

24

23
21

21

25
22 23 23
21

20

19

20

21

17

19
17

16

17

15

20 19

15

14

15

16

18 17

17
16

12

19.4

18
13

11

10

0
70

72

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

00

02

Y E A R

An average of 19.6 or 20.0 tropical cyclones (all categories) entered/developed

in the PAR and 8 or 9 made landfall/crossing the Philippines annually.

Impacts to Agriculture
Drought

Insufficient Water for Irrigation

Reduced Stream flow

Total Crop Loss

Declining Groundwater
Level

Limiting Water Supply for Farm Household Needs

The Philippine Agriculture

10

Ave. Growth rate = 3.69%

(2001 2005)
6.49

4.56
3.46

4.81
3.95

2.9

3.88

3.14
2.24

0
1996

1997

1998

-5
-6.6

-10

Ave. Growth rate = 1.95%

(1996 - 1999)

1999

2000

2001

2003

2004

2005

2006

Palay Production ( x 1000 MT)

El Nino impacts on rice production

13000

El Nino

11000
10000

El Nino

El Nino

12000

El Nino

9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
82

84

86

88

90
Year

92

94

96

98

Impacts of drought
Crop failure
Reduced irrigated areas

State of calamity in La Union

Philippine Star Jul 31, 2007

Angat water supply down to critical level

Actual monthly inflows compared with the normal values (1968-1998) for Angat
reservoir in Luzon during selected El Nio years (million cubic meters).
1991-1992

Month

1997-1998

Actual

Normal

% of
Normal

Actual

Normal

% of
Normal

October

68.0

304

22

90.2

304

30

November

181.0

291

62

43.4

291

15

December

113.0

211

53

86.9

211

41

January

62.0

101

61

52.0

101

51

February

29.0

57

51

28.0

57

49

March

15.0

51

29

20.9

51

41

Total

468.0

1015

46

321.4

1015

31.6

IMPACTS TO WATER SUPPLY

(water shortage)
Less water for domestic use
Loss of target collection / income
Additional operational cost
- Occurrence of water-borne diseases
Water quality problems

IMPACTS TO IRRIGATION (water shortage)

Loss of target collection to NIA
(irrigation Service Fee)
Reduction of farmers income
Opportunity loss for NIA
Increase in the no. of crimes

Impacts on Irrigation
140,000

Production/Harvested Area

120,000

100,000

80,000

1998 (1) - 86.60 %

60,000

1998 (2) - 43.94 %

40,000

20,000

0
1

1996

1997

1998

1999

Production (M T)

2000

2001

2002

Area Harvested (ha)

Irrigated Palay Production in AMRIS

1 First Semester Harvest (Nov Mar cropping season/dry) 2
Second Semester Harvest (Jun Oct cropping season/wet)

2003

2004

IMPACTS TO HYDROPOWER (water shortage)

Opportunity losses
Increase in the use of other
sources of power such as coal,
thermal, etc.

Impacts on Hydropower
Year

Quarter

1997

77.98

57.38

-20.60

26.4

85.76

64.84

-20.92

24.4

139.61

47.44

-92.17

66.0

133.59

34.61

-98.98

74.1

77.98

27.50

-50.48

64.7

85.76

35.22

-50.54

58.9

1998

10-Yr. Ave
(GWH)

Actual
Generation
(GWH)

Difference

% Reduction

List of Drought Events in the Philippines During the Period 1968 - 1998
Date of Occurrence

Areas Affected

Damages

1. 1968-1969

Moderate to severe drought over most of the

Philippines with Bicol Region as most
severely affected

Total of 5x105 mt
of rice and corn production

2. 1972-1973

Central Luzon, Palawan, Visayas and Mindanao

Total loss of 6.3x105 mt of rice and corn production

3. 1977-1978

The whole of Mindanao except Davao

Total loss of 7.5x105 mt of rice and corn production

4. 1982-1983
Oct. 1982 March 1983
Apr. 1983 Sept. 1983

Western and Central Luzon, Southern Tagalog

Provinces, Northern Visayas, Bohol and
Western Mindanao
Moderate to severe drought affected most of
Luzon, Negros Occidental and Iloilo

Rice and corn pro- duction loss of 6.4x105 mt; insurance

claims amounted to P38 M; hydropower generation loss
was P316 M

5. 1986-1987
Oct. 1986 March 1987

Severe drought affected Bicol Region, Southern

Negros, Cebu and Western Mindanao

Estimated agricultural damages of P47 M

Severe drought affected mainland of Luzon,

Central Visayas and Western Mindanao

Estimated hydro energy generation loss was P671 M

6. 1989-1990
Oct. 1989 March 1990

Drought affected Cagayan Valley, Panay Island,

Guimaras, Palawan and Southern Mindanao;
affected rice and corn area totalled 283,562
hectares; major multipurpose water
reservoirs reduced inflow

Estimated 5x105 mt of rice and corn production losses;

hydropower gene-ration loss of P348 M; 10% cutback in
water production in Metro Manila

7. 1991-1992

Severe drought affected Mindanao, Central and

Western Visayas and Cagayan Valley;
affected agricultural areas of 461,800
hectares

P4.09 Billion agri-cultural losses; 20% shortfall in Metro

Manila water supply

8. 1997-1998

About 70 % of the Philippines experienced severe

drought; about 292,000 hectares of rice and
corn area completely damaged

622,106 mt of rice production loss and 565,240 mt of corn

amounting to P 3 B; water shortages; forest fires and
human health impacts

Apr. 1987 Sept. 1987

What can be done?

Other Institutional
/Interventions

Responses

NDCC to proactively address the

impending issue on water crisis
National agencies and LGUs to work
together to monitor ground water levels
Dry spell/Drought Mitigation Plan (risk &
impact assessment, mitigation & response
strategies)
Crop insurance

Adaptation Strategies
1. Utilization of drought and
submergence tolerant rice varieties
(2008-dry season)
GMA-RICE

2.Useofimprovedcropvarietiesthatare
resistanttopestanddiseases
(2006 2007)
BureauofAgriculturalResearch(BAR)andPhilRice
BureauofAgriculturalResearchandCLSU
P5.0M
Source: BSWM

Adaptation Strategies
3.SustainableSystemofIrrigated
Agriculture(SSIA)
P50.0M(20082010)
NationalIrrigationAdministration
DepartmentofEnvironmentand
NaturalResources

Source: BSWM

AdaptationStrategies
4.LOCALIZEDIRRIGATION(DRIPIRRIGATION
waterisappliedbywettingonlyapartof
thesoilinthefieldthroughemitter.
Highlyefficientaswaterisconveyed
throughapipesystem;
Waterisapplieddirectlytoeachplant
suchthatonlythesoilneareachplant
iswetted;
Facilitatesfertigation andthus,could
increaseyieldby20%to70%
DRIP IRRIGATION

Suitableinsteepandundulating
slopes,andsandysoils

Source: BSWM

AdaptationStrategies
5. NIA has embarked a program to repair and rehabilitate
more than 300,000 ha of unserviceable irrigated
farmlands
2006 2010

Diversion Dams

Storage Dams

Source: BSWM

AdaptationStrategies
6. Intensifyestablishmentofrainwater
harvestingstructures(e.g.SWIP)
P1.5B(2008 2010)
BureauofSoilsandWatermanagement

7.Monitoring,provisionofshallowtubewells,
andfingerlingdispersaltovulnerableareas
withhighimpacttoInlandaquaculture
P35.5M
BureauofFisheriesandAquaticResources7
Source: BSWM

AdaptationStrategies
8. NIA has embarked a program to repair and rehabilitate
more than 300,000 ha of unserviceable irrigated
farmlands
2006 2010

Diversion Dams

Storage Dams

Source: BSWM

AdaptationStrategies
9. Intensifyestablishmentofrainwater
harvestingstructures(e.g.SWIP)
P1.5B(2008 2010)
BureauofSoilsandWatermanagement

10. Monitoring,provisionofshallowtube
wells,andfingerlingdispersaltovulnerable
areaswithhighimpacttoInland
aquaculture
P35.5M
BureauofFisheriesandAquaticResources

Impacts of Extreme Dry Condition

A.

Rainfed agricultural areas will be severely affected

B.

Potential reduction in stream flows and water yield of the

different water resources;

Small streams and creeks

Small run-of-the-river irrigation systems
Farm ponds, small water reservoirs, and lakes
Large rivers
Large and major reservoirs
Groundwater source; unconfined and confined shallow
aquifers, deep aquifers

C. Potential increase in crop water requirements due to increase in

crop evapo-transpiration; reduction in irrigated areas

Drought Early Warning and Monitoring System

DATA BASES
HISTORICAL NORMALS
EPISODIC EVENTS
INFORMATION FROM
OTHER SOURCES

ANALYSIS/ASSESSMENT
METHODOLOGIES AND
PROCEDURES

NEAR REAL-TIME
METEOROLOGICAL DATA

CLIMATE UPDATES AND FORECASTS/DROUGHT

ADVISORIES/POTENTIAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT
END USERS
1. Inter-Agency Committee on Water Crisis Management
2. National Disaster Coordinating Council
3. Inter-Agency Technical Working Group on Cereals and
Feed Grains
4. El Nio / La Nia Task Force
5. Media
6. General Public and other End-Users

For more Information, VISIT us at

http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph

Thank you