GLOBAL TRANSACTIONS FORECAST | FRANCE

The economic recovery in France is finally coming to life, but its

Our forecast shows the total value of completed M&A deals

falling from US$94.1 billion in 2014 to US$65.4 billion in 2015,
before peaking at US$90.4 billion in 2017. Deal activity will slow
from 2018 to 2020 following a pullback in equity prices.

VOLUME OF M&A TRANSACTIONS

3,000
N UM B E R OF DE AL S

unlikely that GDP growth will accelerate significantly over the

next few years. The European Central Banks quantitative easing
policies should help sustain a recovery in M&A and IPO activity in
the near future. But transactional activity will trend lower again
in 2018 as the ECB scales back monetary support and equity
prices retreat.

DOMESTIC

TRANSACTION ATTRACTIVENESS*
Money supply

C R O SS - B O R D E R ( I N B OUND )

Business regulation
GDP per capita

1,500

Legal structure

FORECAST

Ease of doing business

1,000

Freedom to trade
Government effectiveness

500

Sovereign credit risk

0
2010

similar pattern, rising from 1,988 in 2014 to 2,624 in 2017, then

dropping to 1,854 in 2020.

5.7

Openness to trade

2,000

We expect the number of completed M&A deals to follow a

OVERALL
SCORE

Size of stock market

2,500

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

10

The share of inbound cross-border transactions will remain

stable at 50% of France's total completed M&A deal value in
2017, compared to 47% in 2014.

VALUE OF M&A TRANSACTIONS

in 2014 to US$4.1 billion in 2015, before peaking at US$5.1

billion in 2017.

100

KEY DRIVER SUMMARY (AVERAGE 2015-2020)

France

Global

FORECAST

40

3.0

Stock market capitalization (% of GDP)

74

101

20

Money supply (% of GDP)

73

124

Trade (% of GDP)

51

60

Ease of doing business (World Bank)

74

62

Legal structure (Fraser Institute)

7.2

6.5

Freedom to trade (Fraser Institute)

8.0

7.4

D OM ESTIC

CROSS-BORD ER

FORECAST

60

1.6

10

C R O SS - B O R D E R ( I N B OUND )

80

GDP growth (% annual)

Source: Oxford Economics

DOMESTIC

US$ B ILLIO N

120

US$ B ILLIO N

Domestic IPO issuance is projected to rise from US$3.7 billion

VALUE OF IPO TRANSACTIONS

6
4
2
0

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

*The Transaction Attractiveness Indicator is an overall score calculated using a weighted average of 10 factors. The score reflects the attractiveness of a country's
current environment for M&A and IPO activity on a scale from 0 to 10. It's based on data on key economic, financial and regulatory factors that are typically
associated with higher M&A and IPO activity, such as a country's sovereign credit risk and openness to trade. Because many of these factors change slowly
over time, a country's current score is a strong indicator of whether it will have the right features to attract transactional activity in the future.

GLOBAL TRANSACTIONS FORECAST | FRANCE

M&A AND IPO TRANSACTIONS (COMPLETED)

2014

2015f

2016f

2017f

2018f

2019f

2020f

TOTAL M&A TRANSACTIONS (US$bn)

94.1

65.4

74.7

90.4

83.9

74.4

66.4

% of Global M&A transactions

3.8

2.4

2.5

2.7

2.6

2.5

2.5

Domestic (US$bn)

49.8

27.5

36.4

44.9

39.7

34.7

30.8

Cross-border, inbound (US$bn)

44.3

37.9

38.3

45.5

44.2

39.7

35.6

TOTAL VOLUME OF M&A TRANSACTIONS (Number of deals)

1,988

2,019

2,227

2,624

2,370

2,082

1,854

Domestic (Number of deals)

1,578

1,554

1,757

2,065

1,827

1,595

1,417

Cross-border, inbound (Number of deals)

410

465

470

559

543

487

437

TOTAL IPO TRANSACTIONS (US$bn)

5.0

4.2

5.0

5.8

3.9

2.9

1.4

% Global IPO transactions

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.3

1.2

0.8

Domestic (US$bn)

3.7

4.1

4.5

5.1

3.7

2.8

1.3

Cross-border (US$bn)

1.3

0.1

0.5

0.7

0.3

0.1

0.1

ECONOMIC FORECAST
2014

2015f

2016f

2017f

2018f

2019f

2020f

Real GDP growth (% yoy)

0.2

1.4

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.6

1.6

CPI (% yoy)

0.5

0.1

1.4

1.6

1.6

1.7

1.7

Merchandise Trade (% of GDP)

47

48

50

51

52

53

54

10-year government bond yield (%)

1.7

0.8

1.5

2.1

2.5

2.9

3.3

Equity prices (LCU, end of year % change)

0.8

17.4

3.0

0.0

-6.1

-3.0

4.0

2,017

1,976

1,956

1,953

1,874

1,857

1,974

MACROECONOMIC DRIVERS

FINANCIAL DRIVERS

Stock market capitalization (US$bn)

Source: Oxford Economics