Cognizant 20-20 Insights

Mitigating Supply Chain Risk:

Planning Around Port Disruptions
To reduce the business impact of U.S. port shutdowns, retailers
need a framework to help them assess their global supply chain
capabilities and make decisions that ensure a consistent supply
of imported goods.
Executive Summary

Breaking Down U.S. Imports

As supply chains increasingly globalize, and

retailers spread their sourcing arms across
the world, the role of international trade and
commerce is growing geometrically. Retailers
already rely heavily on imports (both directly
sourced and via third-party vendors) to fulfill their
inventory. Hence, disruptions to port operations
can have a devastating effect on their business
operations.
This white paper looks at the impact of port
disruption on retailers supply chain operations
and offers ways to mitigate any and all consequences. We also present an overview of options
available to importers to manage risks associated
with import operations in the event of a port
shutdown.

U.S. Imports: A Brief History

The U.S. is the worlds second largest importer,
after the EU,1 with a net value of imports nearing
$2.73 trillion in 2013. More than 80% of U.S.
imports are goods ($2.268 trillion) as opposed
to services, and the consumer goods category
constitutes close to one-quarter of this figure, at
$533B (see Figure 1).

$450
$115
$309
$533

$548

Industrial Machinery & Equipment

Capital Goods
Consumer Goods
Automotive
Food, Feeds & Beverages
Services

Source: http://useconomy.about.com/od/
tradepolicy/p/Imports-Exports-Components.htm
Figure 1

cognizant 20-20 insights | june 2015

$681

A large portion of these imports flow into the

country as containerized traffic via major U.S.
ports. The U.S. imported 22.5 million TEUs (twenty
feet equivalent) in 2013,2 and retailers corner a
major share of these containerized exports.

Rising Retailer Imports

Given the high volume of imports, any disruption

to port operations arising from natural or
man-made causes has a critical impact on
retailers business operations and profit margins.

Top Retailers, Imports in TEUs

750
650
550

Understanding the Impact

of Port Disruptions

450
350
250
150

West Coast ports handle about 70% of the

market share of U.S. imports from Asia, earning
it the title of Gateway of Choice for goods sent
to and from Asia. However, the collective share of
the East Coast and Gulf Coast ports have steadily
increased over West Coast ports in the last few
years, as these ports are increasingly percieved
as viable alternatives by importers (see Figure 3).

2009

2010

2011

Walmart

Sears

Target

Lowes

2012

2013

Home Depot

Source: Aggregated data from www.joc.com.

Figure 2

According to the Journal of Commerces 2013

top importer list, 33% of the top 100 importers
were retailers. Five of the top six importers are
retailers, and the top 10 list each year is dominated
by giants such as Walmart, Target and Lowes (see
Figure 2). Collectively, these retailers constitute
almost 70% of the traffic, measured in TEUs.3

According to the Journal

of Commerces 2013 top
importer list, 33% of the top
100 importers were retailers.
Five of the top six importers
are retailers, and the top 10
list each year is dominated by
giants such as Walmart, Target
and Lowes.
Given the proximity to Chinas ports and connectivity via major shipping lanes, the bulk of these
imports arrive at West Coast ports. The ports of
Los Angeles and Long Beach together handle
about 40% of U.S. imports from Asia. Together,

cognizant 20-20 insights

A typical import lifecycle for a retailer occurs over

a four to six-month period, and involves many
departments, from merchandising through supply
chain and logistics (see Figure 4, next page).
The complexity is further increased due to various
regulations and governmental bodies, such as the
U.S. Customs and Border Patrol, involved in the
import process. Disruptions to port operations
also have a crippling impact on the overall
economy. In addition to natural calamities, labor
issues have disrupted port operations in the past,
such as the recent negotiations between the
International Longshore and Warehouse Union
and Pacific Maritime Association.

Share of U.S. Containerized

Cargo (Imports)

60%

55%

50%

45%

40%

1
97 98 99 00 0 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

East Coast ports

West Coast ports

Source: USA Trade Online/Martin & Associates.

Figure 3

The Import Lifecycle

2-5 months
prior to in-store date

Classify Products

Domestic
Transportation

Create PO

2 weeks
through in-store date
Receive Goods

Party
Screening

Customs Entry
Filing & Clearance

Key Import Processes

Product Classification
Import Documentation
Landing Cost Calculations

Control
Determination

1 month
prior to in-store date

1-2 months
prior to in-store date

Create Import
Documents

Calculate ELC
Seller Gets PO

Ship Goods

Buyer & Broker

Receive ASN

Export Process

Figure 4

The Monetary Impact of Long-term Supply

Chain Operational Disruptions
According to academic estimates, the 11-day
lockout at West Coast ports in 2002 incurred
billions of dollars in losses.4 The shutdown was
nothing short of an operational nightmare for
retailers. Buyers had to expend time and effort to
prioritize shipments to be flown in or re-routed
to the East Coast. Stores, meanwhile, started to
experience out-of-stocks, and holiday orders were
delayed beyond the season and had to be canceled
in some cases, thus impacting the financial health
of offshore suppliers and factories, as well.
Even when the strike ended after 10 days,
shipments were so backed up that retailers ended
up receiving some goods after Christmas and had
to sell the products at marked-down prices just
to clear inventory. Merchandising was hit hard by
first the scarcity of inventory and then an out-ofseason oversupply scenario.
The prolonged labor contract negotiations in
2014 slowed down port operations yet again,
and retailers margins were impacted. Lululemon
Athletica stated that its fiscal-year fourth-quarter
revenue would be hit by as much as $10M due to
the shipment backup.5
Clothing retailer Ann, Inc. took the initiative to
receive shipments via air-freight for the holiday
season, which significantly impacted margins.6, 7
The risk is more pronounced for specialty retailers
due to the time sensitivity of their products.

cognizant 20-20 insights

Supply Chain Challenges

A large-scale disruption to port operations
typically results in shifting import timelines
and the need to move goods to alternate ports,
thereby leading to spikes in traffic and difficulty
securing resources for transportation.
From a logistics point of view, reserving a
container (20 ft., 40 ft. etc.) for the preferred
lane (origin to destination port) can get difficult,
especially for specialized equipment. In some
cases, the resources could even be allotted in a
round-robin approach in spite of million-dollar
deals between the retailer and the shipping lines.
This scarcity is not just limited to reserving
equipment; it also includes planning for a trailer
to move goods inland. For cases of IPI, the multimodal operator or railroad carriers might run at
full capacity or be overbooked.
In 2014, retailers made contingency plans to meet
the fallout. Between April 2014 and June 2014,
there was an unprecedented increase in port
traffic compared with the same period in fiscal
year 2013. Having learned from their past experiences, retailers advanced their import cycles to
ship goods early to mitigate the repercussions of
a feared shutdown.
Importers also shifted cargo to East Coast ports,
which reduced West Coast port activity from 62%
of all U.S. retail container cargo handled in January
2014 to 59% in May 2014. Some companies even
split volumes to send some goods to other ports
on the East and Gulf Coasts.8

Inventory Management

Port Traffic Spike Causes

Congestion Surcharges
Thirteen carriers, including American President Lines
(APL) and Hanjin Shipping announced a congestion
surcharge (CSU) for containers from Asia to all U.S.
destinations, effective Nov. 26, 2014. The surcharge
averaged $800 for 20-foot containers, $1,000 for
40-feet containers, $1,125 for 40-foot HQ containers
and $1,265 for 45-foot HQ containers.
Other carriers, such as Mediterranean Shipping Co.,
CMA CGM, Hanjin Shipping and Maersk Line, have also
levied CSUs on West Coast shipments.9

From a supply chain perspective, the decision of

lost sales vs. high inventory holding costs (buffer
stock) vs. contingency logistics costs is a strategic
one. During the West Coast shutdown in 2002, Dell
implemented a just-in-case strategy to build
up additional inventory in anticipation of a port
shutdown. While its competitors attempted to
address their logistical nightmare, Dell managed
to capitalize on the situation by building inventory
beforehand.10

Inventory Management
Benefits

Constraints

The possibility of inventory

Distribution center

unavailability can be eradicated.

storage capacity is
needed to support
overflow.

Strategic decisions can be

made, and consensus can

be built on higher inventory
holding cost.

Capital is blocked for a

significant period.

Profits can be better managed,

with known product margins.

Mitigating Risks, Impact on

Downstream Operations
To meet fallout due to port disruptions, we
suggest that retailers adopt diversified strategies
to prepare for all contingencies. This approach
considers the following factors:

Sourcing decisions.
Inventory management.
Alternate routing strategy.

Alternate Routing Strategy

When it is too late to revise a sourcing decision,
and the business is not comfortable with building
up inventory, the only option available is to analyze
the risk and seek alternate routing options.
By Sea
All the sea-based alternate routes are well-thoughtof, and are completely water-based vs. intermodal
or trans-shipment (see Figures 5 and 6).

U.S. Sea Gateways

Sourcing Decisions
To rationalize sourcing, retailers must investigate
advancing the sourcing cycle, seasonal vs. staple
merchandise sourcing, and category of goods
(i.e., low vs. high value and commodity attributes,
such as perishable, hazardous, etc.).

Canadian
West & East
Coast Ports

West Coast
Ports

Sourcing Decisions
Benefits

East Coast
Ports

Constraints

New or existing suppliers can Stress is increased on

be identified to meet the
expectation.

suppliers due to new

volumes and timelines.

Near-shoring and domestic

supplier options can be
explored or leveraged.

Additional suppliers and

their service commitment
needs to be identified.

Mexico &
Panama

Figure 5

cognizant 20-20 insights

Gulf Ports

U.S. Port Gateways

da

ays
11 d

12

Prince Rupert

ys

4 da

Seattle

ys

12

4 days

13 d
a ys
14 d

4 days
4 days

3 days

1 day

Savannah

1 day

22 days

Houston
21 days

7 days

17 d

ays

Seattle/Tacoma
4 days

Norfolk

Atlanta

Dallas

New York/New Jersey

ys
da

4 days

3 days

14

ays

Oakland
Los Angeles/
Long Beach

day

Marine ports

Los Angeles/
Long Beach

4 days

4 days

Inland destinations

Dallas

Marine routes

New York/New Jersey

Chicago
3 days
Memphis Norfolk
3 day
s Savannah/Charleston
1 day
22 days

Houston

Inland routes

21 days

Lzaro
Crdenas

Routes from Northeast Asia to major inland

destinations (Chicago, Atlanta, Dallas/Ft. Worth)

Comparative shipment times from Northeast

Asia to Chicago, Memphis and Dallas

Figure 6

routing for the West Coast: The

Canadian Gateway or East/Gulf Coast ports are
the preferred routes over West Coast ports for
contingency planning.

>> Halifax

>> Vancouver, Prince Rupert: Inter/multimodal

>> Port of Lazaro Cardenas is a good alterna-

>> Prince Rupert has the best connections to

Trans-shipment hubs: The Caribbean trans-

Alternate

and Montreal: Inter/multimodal for

inland via rail. Halifax: Canadian National
Railway. Montreal: CN and Canadian Pacific
Railroad.

for inland via rail.

the Midwest and Gulf Coast through the Canadian National Railway Co. (CN).

tive to the West Coast, as well.

shipment triangle, encompassing Colon,

Freeport and Port of Spain, is called on by larger
vessels carrying cargo from the Far East, Asia
and America (north, south and central). These
preferred hubs are called by feeder vessels
that can distribute the offloaded containers to
destinations throughout the Americas.

>> Port of Lazaro Cardenas also has rail corri-

dor connections to the U.S. South Central region. Lazaro Cardenas target market in the
U.S. is Texas and the Gulf Coast.

Alternate

routing for the East Coast: West

Coast and Gulf Coast ports are the preferred
alternates for the East Coast. The Canadian
and Mexican intermodal connectivity to
Eastern and South Central America are equally
competitive.

>> Panama

East (Atlantic/Caribbean Coast):

Manzanillo International Terminal (MIT),
Cristobal, Colon Container Terminal (CCT).

>> Panama West (Pacific Coast: Balboa, Panama International Terminal).

>> Canadian and U.S. West Coast ports all serve

>> Caribbean

Hubs/Freeport Container Port

(Bahamas), Kingston ((Jamaica), Caucedo
(Dominican Republic), Cartagena.

Chicago and the Midwest.

>> Pacific Northwest ports have a comparative

advantage in reaching more northerly inland

markets (Minneapolis).

>> Prince

Rupert specializes in intermodal

moves to Chicago and Memphis via the Canadian National Railway.

cognizant 20-20 insights

Post-Panamax, these ports will have an impact on

all-water cargo movements from rest of world
to the U.S. Gulf Coast and East Coast and viceversa.

Alternate Routing Strategy (By Sea)

Benefits

Constraints

Alternate routing options would help with

planning for uncertainties and provide
opportunities for leveraging them when
needed.

Imports can be distributed across various

gateways as a strategy.

Agility of logistics business partners can be

assessed in case of emergency.

Optimal routing is dependent on the

shipments final delivery destination.

Resources need to be secured during

peak/disruptions.

Business partners need to be identified to

import through a new gateway.

Additional border formalities and compliance

need to be considered when operating through

other countries such as Canada, Mexico, etc.

Business partner associations are new or

experimental.

By Air
This should be the preferred option for high-value and/or high-customer-impact commodities, in which a
stock-out is simply not an option. This is a typical hand-to-mouth strategy: Compute the right quantity
of inventory required to meet demand until port downtime, and airlift this limited stock (precious) to
locations closer to the distribution center or stores.

Alternate Routing Strategy (By Air)

Benefits

Constraints

Viable option for delayed planning, which may Premium freight costs will significantly
occur for various reasons, such as production
delays, high-value commodity, unexpected
disruptions, etc.

Lead times are shorter across the supply

network, from importing through the last mile

to the distribution center or stores.

cognizant 20-20 insights

impact margins.

Does not qualify for all types of commodities.

Space needs to be secured in case of
last-minute planning challenges.

Service vs. cost is a paramount decision.

Diversified Strategy Mix

Sourcing
Decision
Type

Strategic

Inventory
Tactical

Operational and executional

Early in the supply Latest by midway

Supply
Chain
Stage

chain cycle.

Prerequisite for the

sourcing cycle.

Domestic partnership/vendor.

Near-shoring.
Availability of

vendors, both
domestic and nearshore.

Capability of

existing vendors to
support advanced
order cycle.

Key Factors

through the supply

chain cycle.

Anytime before the shipment is

onboard the carrier equipment.

purchase order to
be cut.

Advancing the
Suggested
Actions

Routing

Capability of

Staple vs. seasonal. Alternate ports/

trans-shipment hubs.
Substitute items.
Build up inventory/ IPI/multi-modal.
safety stock.
Air freight/ocean.
Lost sales vs.

inventory holding
cost.

Logistics partners:

Carriers, shipping lines,

freight-forwarders, etc.

COGS, retail prices, Expertise of logistics partners to

profit margins.

Inventory aging.
DC storage
capacity.

support contingency.

Geographical spread of logistics

partners.

Securing resources during peak/

congestion.

existing vendors to
support additional
volumes.

Shortest to longest lead times.

Total logistics cost.
Trade barriers, compliance, duty.
Financial implications: Inter-

national commercial terms

(INCOTERMS), letter of credit, etc.

Cost vs. time trade-off.

Figure 7

Import Supply Chain Risk Assessment

Figure 7 defines the trade-offs among the three
strategies and the key factors within each. Our
assessment framework helps retailers understand
the current business capabilities with respect to
import supply chain operations. The framework
identifies the current import landscape and
determines the agility of the importers supply
chain. With a pre-defined set of assessment
questions, key decision parameters can be

cognizant 20-20 insights

collected to deploy the most suitable importrelated risk mitigation strategy.

Figures 8 and 9 (next page) offer a snapshot of
key business entities and their capabilities, as well
as key factors to consider across the different
entities and their impact on every possible
strategy. These can be assessed to determine
their current state and ability to adapt to a risk
mitigation strategy.

Assessing the Business and its Capabilities for Mitigating Supply Chain Risk

Entities

Capabilities
Organizational Focus

Organizational
Risk
strategy
planning

Alternate Routing

Factors
influencing

Supply Chain

Risk Mitigation
Assessment

Risk Mitigation
Assessment
Assess
capabilities

Risk Sensors

Global Trade Compliance

Transportation Network

Adopt a
strategy

Logistics Service Provides

Business Partners

Vendor
Business Process
& IT Systems

Process and Systems

Figure 8

Factoring Degrees of Influence

A quick checklist of imperatives for making an appropriate supply chain decision.

Capabilities

Factors

Degree of influencing the decision

Sourcing

Accessorial
Charges
Surcharge

Alternate
Routing
Operational
Readiness

Global Trade
Aspects

Inventory

Routing

Port Congestion Charges (CON)

Low

Low

High

Peak Season Surcharge (PSS)

Low

Low

High

Panama Canal Surcharge

Low

Low

High

Suez Canal Surcharge

Low

Low

High

Intermodal Charges (Rail / Road)

Low

Low

High

Intermodal Fuel Surcharge (IFS)

Low

Low

High

U.S Rail Fuel Surcharges

Low

Low

High

Broker Charges

Low

Low

High

Characteristics of the Commodity

High

High

High

Special Handling Requirement

Low

High

High

Lead Times

High

High

High

Vessel Schedule

Low

Low

High

Routing Options

High

Medium

High

Inland Trucking/Rail Capacity

Low

Medium

High

Bill of Lading (BL)

Low

Low

Medium

Cross-border Compliance

Medium

Low

High

Customs Documentation

Medium

Low

High

De-consolidator Process

Low

Low

High

Letter of Credit (validity, terms, etc.)

High

Low

High

INCO Terms on PO FOB, CIF, etc.

High

Low

High

Insurance Terms Specific to Port/Country

Medium

Low

High

Importer and Exporter Consensus

Medium

Medium

Medium

Figure 9

cognizant 20-20 insights

Looking Forward
To prepare for periodic shutdowns or possible disruptions due to contract negotiations and natural
disasters, it is essential for business and supply
chain professionals to build contingency planning
into their systems.
Importers need to begin developing alternate
ports of entry to diversify their import traffic
around the country. Over-reliance on either
East or West Coast ports can greatly hamper
operations in the case of man-made or natural disruptions. Further, importers also need to shore up

their domestic supply chains by creating import

warehouses, distribution centers and a transportation landscape to meet these challenges.
The strength of the supply chain is measured
by its ability to be responsive and agile in an
emergency. Importers should thus look at
building risk mitigation planning and execution
as a competency within their global supply
chain processes and systems. To contend with
unplanned port closures, they need the ability to
decide on cost vs. service tradeoffs, as and when
required.

Footnotes
1

U.S. Imports and Exports: Components and Statistics, About.com,

http://useconomy.about.com/od/tradepolicy/p/Imports-Exports-Components.htm.

Top 25 North American Ports, Journal of Commerce, http://www.joc.com/special-topics/top-25-northamerican-ports.

Ibid.

Brad Plumer, Could a Port Strike Really Cripple the U.S. Economy? The Washington Post, Dec. 27, 2012,
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2012/12/27/could-a-port-strike-really-cripple-the-us-economy/.

Clark Schultz, West Coast Port Slowdown Weighs on Retailers and Shippers, Seeking Alpha, Dec. 19, 2014,
http://seekingalpha.com/news/2189095-west-coast-port-slowdown-weighs-on-retailers-and-shippers.

Andria Cheng, West Coast Port Dispute Threatens to Derail Holiday Season, MarketWatch, Nov. 10, 2014,
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/west-coast-port-dispute-threatens-to-derail-holiday-season-2014-11-10.

Carter Evans, Goods Held Hostage in West Coast Port Battle, CBS News, Jan. 15, 2014,
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/goods-held-hostage-in-west-coast-port-battle/.

Robert Bowman, Retailers Step Up Holiday Imports in Case of a West Coast Port Strike, Forbes, July 9,
2014, http://www.forbes.com/sites/robertbowman/2014/07/09/retailers-step-up-holiday-imports-in-caseof-a-west-coast-port-strike/.

Corianne Egan, 13 Carriers Reinstate Congestion Surcharges to U.S. West Coast, Journal of Commerce,
Nov. 25, 2014, http://www.joc.com/maritime-news/container-lines/mediterranean-shipping-co/13-carriersreinstate-congestion-surcharges-us-west-coast_20141125.html.

10

Bill Breen, Living in Dell Time, Fast Company, http://www.fastcompany.com/51967/living-dell-time.

cognizant 20-20 insights

References

Charles W. W. Mitchell, III, Impact of the Expansionof the Panama Canal: An Engineering

Analysis, Spring 2011, http://www.ce.udel.edu/UTC/Mitchell%20-%20Impact%20of%20the%20

Expansion%20of%20the%20Panama%20Canal%20FINAL%20with%20Chapters.pdf.

Brandon C. Morrison, Race-to-the-Top: East and Gulf Coast Ports Prepare for a Post-Pana-

max World, May 2012, http://dukespace.lib.duke.edu/dspace/bitstream/handle/10161/5201/

MP-Brandon%20Morrison-FINAL.pdf?sequence=1.

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Top 100 U.S. Importers in 2013, Journal of Commerce, http://www.joc.com/international-tradenews/trade-data/united-states-trade-data/top-100-importers-2013.html.

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Scudder Smith, Parsons Brinckerhoff, U.S. Container Trade Outlook, LAEDC International Trade

Outlook Conference, June 5, 2014, http://laedc.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/LAEDCOutlook_

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About the Authors

Kasiviswanathan Palanisamy is a Senior Consultant within Cognizant Business Consultings Retail
Practice. He has over 12 years of experience across supply chain and information technology and has
worked on projects involving third-party logistics, freight-forwarding, business process management,
consulting, product lifecycle management and package implementation, with clients in the retail and
consumer goods markets in areas encompassing warehousing, transportation, global trade, inventory
management and point of sale. He can be reached at Palanisamy.Kasiviswanathan@cognizant.com.
Rachit Anand is a Senior Consultant within Cognizant Business Consultings Retail Practice. He has over
four years of experience in the IT industry in consulting, ERP and business analysis. He has worked
on marquee engagements with leading global retailers in the areas of supply chain, global trade,
e-commerce and omni-channel retail. He has an M.B.A. in Supply Chain and IT from the National Institute
of Industrial Engineering, Mumbai, India. Rachit can be reached at Rachit.Anand@cognizant.com.

About Cognizant
Cognizant (NASDAQ: CTSH) is a leading provider of information technology, consulting, and business
process outsourcing services, dedicated to helping the worlds leading companies build stronger businesses. Headquartered in Teaneck, New Jersey (U.S.), Cognizant combines a passion for client satisfaction, technology innovation, deep industry and business process expertise, and a global, collaborative
workforce that embodies the future of work. With over 100 development and delivery centers worldwide
and approximately 217,700 employees as of March 31, 2015, Cognizant is a member of the NASDAQ-100,
the S&P 500, the Forbes Global 2000, and the Fortune 500 and is ranked among the top performing and
fastest growing companies in the world. Visit us online at www.cognizant.com or follow us on Twitter: Cognizant.

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