12th IFToMM World Congress, Besanon (France), June18-21, 2007

Reliability Assessment for Components of Complex Mechanisms and Machines

M. Vintr*
Brno University of Technology
Brno, Czech Republic
AbstractThe article deals with the problem of reliability
assessment of complex mechanisms and machines, it is
specifically focused on the analysis of the current situation in the
field of item reliability prediction. The techniques of the item
reliability prediction using the most credible methods (MILHDBK-217F, PRISM) and reliability databases (EPRD-97,
NPRD-95) are presented in the article. Also the latest item
reliability prediction method FIDES is presented.1
Keywords: Reliability, Prediction, Methods, Databases

I. Introduction
Nowadays the requirements on reliability of the complex
mechanisms and machines are constantly rising.
Suppliers, who are able to manage reliability of
developed and manufactured mechanisms and machines,
have significant competitive advantages. The basis of the
mentioned managing is reliability assessment in the
initial stages of product life.
The reliability of the whole mechanisms and machines
can be assessed using the well-known methods (e.g.
Reliability block diagrams, Fault tree analysis). The
application of these methods requires to assess (or more
precisely predict) the reliability of individual items.
Reliability prediction can be carried out through various
techniques based on the experience with similar items,
experts estimates, etc. However the most credible
approach to prediction of item reliability is utilizing of
internationally accepted reliability databases and
reliability prediction methods.
Therefore the article is focused on characterization of
the most common tools in the field of item reliability
prediction. The tools described in the article are usually
used for prediction of the failure rate () and Mean Time
Between Failures (MTBF).
II. EPRD-97 and NPRD-95 Databases
The databases EPRD-97 Electronic Parts Reliability
Data [6] and NPRD-95 Nonelectronic Parts Reliability
Data [7] were developed by Reliability Information
Analysis Center (RIAC). The RIAC is the U. S.
Department of Defense chartered Center of Excellence.
The databases complement one another and do not
contain duplicated data. The databases enable reliability
prediction of most types of components used in complex

*E-mail: vintr@fme.vutbr.cz

mechanisms and machines. The EPRD-97 database

contains failure rate data on electronic components,
namely
capacitors,
diodes,
integrated
circuits,
optoelectronic devices, resistors, thyristors, transformers
and transistors. The NPRD-95 database contains failure
rate data on a wide variety of electrical, electromechanical
and mechanical components.
Both databases contain data obtained by long-term
monitoring of the components in the field. The collecting
of the data was last from the early 1970s through 1994
(for NPRD-95) and through 1996 (for EPRD-97). The
data collection was focused on obtaining data on relatively
new component types, data on many different sources,
application environments and quality levels.
The purposes of the both databases are to provide failure
rate data on commercial quality components, provide
failure rates on state-of-the-art components in cases where
data or analyses are not feasible or required and
complement MIL-HDBK-217F or other prediction
methods by providing data on component types not
addressed by it.
Both databases are sold in paper and electronic form and
the prediction according to these databases is supported by
most software products focused on reliability prediction.
III. MIL-HDBK-217F Standard
The MIL-HDBK-217F Military Handbook: Reliability
Prediction of Electronic Equipment [5] was developed by
the U. S. Department of Defense in 1961 and it was
revised several times. Support by the Department of
Defense was terminated in 1995.
This standard was primarily developed for reliability
prediction of the military electronic components.
Nowadays the usage of the standard is common in many
non-military areas and it is the most used reliability
prediction method of the electronic component. Values
included in standard are based on statistical analysis of
actual field failures and are used to calculate failure rates.
The standard contains prediction for generic types of
electronic
components,
namely
microcircuits,
semiconductors, tubes, lasers, resistors, capacitors,
inductive devices, rotating devices, relays, switches,
connectors, interconnection assemblies, meters, quartz
crystals, lamps, electronics filters and fuses.
The standard contains two prediction methods, the
parts count method, and the parts stress method.

12th IFToMM World Congress, Besanon (France), June18-21, 2007

A. Parts Stress Method

The parts stress prediction method requires a greater
amount of detailed information and is applicable during
the later design phase when stresses and other
environmental and quality factors are known for each
component.
The basic procedure in calculating the failure rate is by
multiplying a base failure rate by operational and
environmental stress factors. An example of a
semiconductors component part stress model is as
follows:
p = b T A R S C Q E
(1)
where p is predicted failure rate, b is base failure rate, T
is temperature factor, A is application factor, R is power
rating factor, S is power stress factor, C is contact
construction factor, Q is quality factor and E is
environment factor.
The quality and environment factors are used in most
models. The usage and meaning of other factors differ
according to the type of component. Specific values of
base failure rate and factors are included in the standard.
B. Parts Count Method
The parts count prediction method is applicable in the
early stages of design and development when little
information about the design is known. The parts count
method is a relatively simple prediction method using
default stress values. The information needed to apply the
method is generic type of the component, component
quality level and equipment environment.
The model for equipment failure rate with parts count
method is as follows:

EQUIP = N i ( g Q )i
i=n

(2)

i =1

where EQUIP is total equipment failure rate, g is generic

failure rate for the i-th generic part, Q is quality factor for
the i-th generic part, Ni is quantity of the i-th generic part
and n is number of different generic part categories in the
equipment.
The equation applies if the entire equipment is being
used in one environment. If the equipment consists of
several units operating in different environments, the
equation should be applied to the individual units
separately.
Microcircuits have an additional multiplying factor L,
which accounts the maturity of the manufacturing process.
For microcircuits in production for two years or more, no
modification is needed. For those in production for less
than two years, generic failure rate g should be multiplied
by the appropriate L factor. Specific values of generic
failure rate, quality factor and maturity of the
manufacturing process factor are included in the standard.
In general, the parts count method will usually result in a
more conservative estimation of failure rate than parts
stress method.

The MIL-HDBK-217F is freely available on the Internet

and prediction according to this standard is supported by
most software products focused on reliability prediction.
IV. PRISM Method
PRISM Reliability Prediction and Database for
Electronic and Non-electronic Parts is reliability
prediction method developed by System Reliability Center
(SRC).
The prediction method has two parts. The base failure
rate of each component is predicted at first. This base
failure rates are then modified with system-level process
assessment factors.
The PRISM method failure rate model for a system is as
follows:
S = IA ( P IM E + D G + S G +
(3)
+ M IM E G + I + N + W ) + SW
where S is predicted failure rate of the system, IA is
initial assessment of the failure rate, P is parts process
multiplier, IM is infant mortality factor, E is
environmental factor, D is design process multiplier, G
is reliability growth factor, M is manufacturing process
multiplier, S is system management process multiplier,
I is induced process multiplier, N is no-defect process
multiplier, W is wear out process multiplier and SW is
software failure rate prediction.
The initial assessment of the failure rate IA is the failure
rate value which is obtained by using a combination of the
RACRates model (is constituent of the PRISM method),
the failure rate data contained in the reliability databases
or userdefined failure data.
RACRates is component reliability prediction model
that uses a separate failure rate for each generic class of
failure mechanisms for a component. Each of these failure
rate terms is then accelerated by the appropriate stress or
component characteristic. This model form is as follows:
P = o o + e e + c c + i + sj sj
(4)
where P is predicted failure rate, o is failure rate from
operational stresses, o is product of failure rate
multipliers for operational stresses, e is failure rate from
environmental stresses, e is product of failure rate
multipliers for environmental stresses, c is failure rate
from power or temperature cycling stresses, c is product
of failure rate multipliers for cycling stresses, i is failure
rate from induced stresses, including electrical overstress,
sj is failure rate from solder joints and sj is product of
failure rate multipliers for solder joint stresses.
RACRates model is currently available for capacitors,
resistors, diodes, transistors, thyristors, integrated circuits
and software.
Specific values of failure rates, factors and multipliers
are assessed according to the information on environment,
operation, stresses, etc.
The PRISM method is not available in paper form, but
only as software product developed by SRC.

12th IFToMM World Congress, Besanon (France), June18-21, 2007

V. FIDES Method
The latest reliability prediction method is called FIDES.
This method is included in DGA-DM/STTC/CO/477-A
FIDES Guide 2004 issue A: Reliability Methodology for
Electronic Systems [4]. This guide was developed by
consortium of French defense and commercial
aeronautical companies and was published under the
supervision of French Ministry of Defense in 2004.
The method was developed using experienced failure
data from the aeronautical and military area and from
manufacturers. The main aim of this method is to enable a
realistic reliability prediction of electronic equipment,
including systems operating in severe environments
(defense systems, aeronautics, etc.).
The method is focused on electric, electronic and electro
mechanic items, namely integrated circuits, discrete
semiconductors, capacitors, thermistors, resistors,
potentiometers, inductors, transformers, relays, printed
circuit boards, connectors and piezoelectric parts.
The method covers intrinsic failures such as item
technology and distribution quality. It also considers
extrinsic failures resulting from equipment specification,
design, production and integration, as well as selection of
the procurement route. The method takes into account the
failures resulting from development and manufacturing,
and the overstresses linked to the application field such as
electrical, mechanical and thermal.
The general failure rate model is as follows:
Item = Physical Part _ Manufacturing Pr ocess
(5)
where Item is predicted item failure rate, Physical is physical
contribution, Part_Manufacturing is quality and technical
control of the item's manufacture and Process is quality
and technical control of the processes of development,
manufacture and operation of the product containing the
item.
The physical contribution can be expressed as follows:

Physical =
(0 Acceleration ) Induced (6)

Physical _ Contributi ons

where 0 is base failure rate, Acceleration is acceleration

factor indicating sensitivity to the conditions of use and
Induced is contribution of induced factors (overstress)
inherent to the field of application.
The term between square brackets expresses the
contribution of the rated constraints.
The Part_Manufacturing factor is a representative of
component quality and can be expressed as follows:
Part _ Manufacturing = exp[1 (1 Part _ Grade) 1 ] (7)
where 1, 1 is correlating factors that determine the extent
of the effects of Part_manufacturing on the item's reliability.
The Part_Grade can be expressed as follows:
QAmanuf + QAcomp + RAcomp
Part _ Grade =
(8)
36

where QAmanuf is manufacturer quality assurance criteria,

QAcomp is component quality assurance criteria, RAcomp is

component reliability assurance criteria and is criteria of

the experience that the buyer of the item may have of his
supplier.
The Process factor is representative of the quality and
technical control of the reliability in the product lifecycle
and can be expressed as follows:
Pr ocess = exp[ 2 (1 Pr ocess _ Grade )]
(9)
where Process_Grade is grade indicating process control
and 2 is correlation factor that determines the range of the
Process factor.
Specific values of all factors, criteria and required inputs
are assessed according to tables, equations and
recommendations included in the guide.
The electronic form of the FIDES guide is freely
available on the Internet and prediction according to this
guide is supported by some software products focused on
reliability prediction.
VI. Other Approaches
A. RDF 2000 Method
The RDF 2000 reliability prediction method is included
in technical report IEC/TR 62380 Reliability Data
Handbook: A Universal Model for Reliability Prediction
of Electronics Components, PCBs and Equipment
published by International Electrotechnical Commission
(IEC) in August 2004. The technical report is based on
French Telecom standard UTE C 80-810 [8] published by
Union Technique de l'Electricit (UTE) in July 2000.
This method provides elements to calculate failure rate
of mounted electronic components. It makes reliability
prediction easier to carry out, thanks to the introduction of
influence factors.
B. Telcordia SR-332 Standard
The standard Telcordia SR-332 Reliability Prediction
Procedures for Electronic Equipment was developed by
Telcordia Technologies Inc. It originated from the
Bellcore standard developed by AT&T Bell Laboratories
and sometimes it is called Bellcore SR-332. The most
version of this standard was released in May 2001. The
prediction method is focused on equipment for the
telecommunications industry and it is applicable to
commercial electronic products. The method is based on
MIL-HDBK-217F principles and better reflects Bellcore
field experiences.
C. NSWC-98/LE1 Standard
The NSWC-98/LE1 Handbook of Reliability
Prediction Procedures for Mechanical Equipment was
developed by the U.S. NAVY Naval Surface Warfare
Center. The recent version of this standard was released in
September 1998. The standard contains models for
various categories of mechanical components and enables
to predict failure rates which are affected by temperature,
stresses, flow rates and various other parameters.

12th IFToMM World Congress, Besanon (France), June18-21, 2007

D. GJB/z 299B Standard

The GJB/z 299B Reliability Calculation Model for
Electronic Equipment is a Chinese standard translated into
English in May 2001. This standard was developed for the
Chinese army. The standard is very similar to MILHDBK-217 and includes both a parts count and parts
stress prediction method. Sometimes the standard is called
China 299B.
VII. Conclusion
The article surely is not a complete overview of all
databases and methods that are used for reliability
prediction of the items and systems. The article introduces
the most frequently used databases and methods in the
field of complex mechanisms and machines. The methods
that are not introduced in the article are intended for
specific field of application or specific company.
Utilization of the database NPRD-95 is the most
frequently used reliability prediction method of nonelectronic components and it has not a serious rival.
The situation in the field of reliability prediction of
electronic components is rather complicated. The database
EPRD-97 is also worldwide used and it contains a large
amount of component reliability information but it does
not allow to take all influence factors into consideration.
Utilization of the MIL-HDBK-217F standard is the most
frequently used reliability prediction method of electronic
components but development of the standard was
terminated and nowadays it is obsolete. For that reason the
PRISM and FIDES methods offer different approaches to
reliability prediction that eliminate deficiencies of the
MIL-HDBK-217F. However, the PRISM software is
relatively expensive and the FIDES method is relatively
new and insufficiently verified in practice.
A final decision about the choice of proper reliability
prediction method of the complex mechanisms and
machines is notably dependent on the purpose of
prediction and customers demands. According to authors
personal experience it is possible to carry out the most of
the predictions with utilization of databases NPRD-95,
EPRD-97 and MIL-HDBK-217F standard.
References
[1] Dylis, D. D. and Priore, M. G. A Comprehensive Reliability
Assessment Tool for Electronic Systems. In Proc. Ann. Reliability
& Maintainability Symp. 2001. Institute of Electrical & Electronics
Engineers, 2001.
[2] Marin, J. J. and Pollard, R. W. Experience Report on the FIDES
Reliability Prediction Metod. In 2005 Proc. Ann. Reliability &
Maintainability Symp. Institute of Electrical & Electronics
Engineers, 2004.
[3] Smith, Ch. L. and Womack, J. B. Jr. Raytheon Assessment of
PRISM As A Field Failure Prediction Tool. In Proc. Ann.
Reliability & Maintainability Symp. 2004. Institute of Electrical &
Electronics Engineers, 2004.
[4] DGA-DM/STTC/CO/477-A. FIDES Guide 2004 issue A
Reliability Methodology for Electronic Systems. FIDES Group,
2004.

[5] MIL-HDBK-217F. Military Handbook Reliability Prediction of

Electronic Equipment. Department of Defense, 1991.
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Center (RAC), 1997.
[7] Nonelectronic Parts Reliability Data (NPRD-95). Reliability
Analysis Center (RAC), 1995.
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