Commodities Evening Update

Friday, July 03, 2015

International Commodities

Content
Market Highlights
Days overview
Outlook
Important Events for Today

Prathamesh Mallya
Sr. Research Analyst
prathamesh.mallya@angelbroking.com
(022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134

Kaynat Chainwala
Research Associate
kaynat.chainwala@angelbroking.com
(022) 2921 2000 Extn :6136

Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd.

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Commodities Evening Update

Friday, July 03, 2015

International Commodities

as at 4.00 pm 3rd July 2015

Performance during the day

News and Analysis

Index

Markets weak ahead of Sundays Greek referendum.

Euro Zones Retail Sales gained 0.2 percent in May.
UKs Services PMI jumped to 58.5 levels in June.
European markets are trading on a negative note before a Greek
referendum on EU-prescribed reforms that could determine the
country's future in the euro zone. Asian markets ended mixed
and the US stock futures are trading in the red.

Nifty

Open

High

Low

% Chg
from Prev
day

Last

8440.10

8497.75

8424.15

8484.90

0.47

Sensex

27973.12

28135.43

27897.45

28092.79

0.53

Nikkei

20476.69

20557.51

20431.25

20539.79

0.08

Kospi

2107.51

2109.68

2094.02

2104.41

-0.14

FTSE

22611.14

22709.01

22511.09

22511.09

-0.22
Source: Reuters

Spanish Services PMI fell to 56.1-mark in June from 58.4 levels in

May. UKs Services PMI jumped to 58.5 level in June from 56.5mark in May. Euro Zones Retail Sales gained 0.2 percent in May
as against a rise of 0.7 percent in April.
Spot gold prices are trading higher by 0.42 percent today at
$1168.00/oz while MCX gold futures are trading higher by 0.4
percent at Rs.26299/10 gms. Gold ticked up above a 3-1/2
month low on Friday, as sluggish U.S. jobs data tempered
expectations for a September rate hike by the Federal Reserve
and hurt the dollar. Athens defaulted on a loan repayment to
the International Monetary Fund this week. Greece's left-wing
government called a referendum for Sunday after five months of
acrimonious talks with its official creditors over an aid-forreforms deal broke down without a deal.

as at 4.00 pm 3rd July 2015

Currency

Open

High

Low

Chg from
Prev day

Current

Dollar Index

96.26

96.30

96.04

96.10

-0.20

Euro/$ Spot

1.1084

1.1117

1.1079

1.1112

0.26

INR/$ Spot

63.287

63.49

63.287

63.4675

0.28
Source: Reuters

as at 4.00 pm 3rd July 2015

Commodity

Unit

Open

High

Low

Last

% Chg
from
Prev
day

Spot Gold

$/oz

1165.79

1170.00

1164.4

1168.50

0.24

Comex Gold

$/oz

1166.40

1168.10

1155.5

1163.00

-0.51

MCX Gold
Aug15

Rs/10
gms

26490.00

26560.00

26460

26545.00

0.42

Spot Silver

$/oz

15.68

15.70

15.55

15.67

-0.13

Spot silver prices are trading lower today by 0.2 percent at

$15.64/oz. Profit booking on account of thin activity and a long
weekend is exerting downside pressure. MCX silver prices are
trading higher by 0.42 percent at Rs.36025/kg.

Comex Silver

$/oz

0.1547

0.15695

0.15445

0.15537

-0.10

MCX Silver
July15

Rs/kg

35978

36066

35829

36055

0.51

Crude Oil Nymex

July 15

$/bbl

56.87

57.95

56.50

56.93

-0.05

LME Copper prices gained marginally on Friday as Greek Prime

Minister Alexis Tsipras is campaigning for citizens to vote no,
while the rest of the 19-nation currency bloc says a clear yes
could get Greece back on the path to reform. Also, lower
volatility is observed as US markets are closed today. MCX
Copper is trading higher by 0.4 percent at Rs.373.75/kg till
4:00pm IST owing to Rupee depreciation.

ICE -Brent Crude

Oil

$/bbl

61.73

62.06

61.57

61.59

-0.77

MCX Crude Oil

July15

Rs/bbl

3632

3632

3592

3603

-1.04

Copper LME - 3
Month

$/tonne

5789.00

5825.00

5775.00

5794.00

0.11

Rs/kg

372.35

374.60

372.10

373.75

0.38

$/tonne

2030.50

2036.50

2020.00

2021.00

-0.30

Rs/kg

128.90

129.25

128.35

128.65

0.04

$/tonne

1781

1788

1772

1773

-0.59

Rs/kg

113.05

113.30

112.50

112.70

-0.31

$/tonne

12180

12215

11940

12115

-0.66

Rs/kg

772.10

776.00

766.10

774.90

-0.03

$/tonne

1717.00

1730.00

1717.00

1718.50

-0.09

Rs/kg

108.35

108.80

108.00

108.45

0.14

MCX Copper
June15
Zinc LME - 3
Month
Zinc MCX June15

Oil prices are trading lower today with WTI and Brent falling by
0.7 and 0.72 percent respectively. Oil prices fell on Friday as a
rising U.S. rig count stoked fears of global oversupply and after
Chinese regulators opened an investigation into suspected stock
market manipulation. U.S. oil drilling increased this week for the
first time after 29 weeks of declines, a sign U.S. oil production
may start to increase more strongly again after a slowdown due
to a period of low oil prices.

Lead LME - 3
Month
Lead MCX
June15
Nickel LME - 3
Month
Nickel MCX
June15
Aluminum LME - 3
Month
Aluminum MCX
June15

23

Commodities Evening Update

Friday, July 03, 2015

International Commodities
Outlook

Greece referendum on 5th July will be the key for further trajectory of the precious metals. Weak nonfarm payrolls data
released yesterday points towards a sluggish labor market in turn acting as a positive factor.
Traders were keeping a close eye on nuclear talks between Western powers and Iran, looking for any sign of a deal to lift
sanctions on the oil-rich nation. This will act as a negative factor as oil exports from Iran will come in an already oversupplies
oil markets.
We expect LME Copper prices to trade lower as the investors will be completely focused on developments in Greece with the
US markets being closed today in observance of the July Fourth Independence Day holiday.
rd

Technical Outlook for evening session 3 July 2015 ( CMP as of 4.00 pm)
Commodity
Gold Aug15
Spot Gold
NCDEX Gold hedge July15
Silver Sep15
Spot Silver
NCDEX Silver hedge Aug15
Crude Oil July15
Nymex Crude Oil Aug15
Natural Gas July15
LME Copper
Copper Aug15
Zinc July15
Lead July15
Aluminum July15
Nickel July15

Unit
Rs/10 gm
$/oz
Rs /kg
$/oz
Rs /bbl
$/bbl
Rs /mmbtu
$/tonne
Rs /kg
Rs /kg
Rs /kg
Rs /kg
Rs /kg

Support 2

Support 1

26000
1153
23550
35300
15.24
31700
3575
56.05
175
5720
368
127.6
111.6
107.5
757

26100
1157.5
23630
35550
15.4
31900
3600
56.5
178
5750
370
128.4
112.5
108.2
765

CMP

26231
1163
23724
35925
15.6
32145
3642
57.13
180.4
5791
373.4
129.35
113.4
109.05
778.8

Resistance1

26340
1168
23800
36200
15.76
32350
3665
57.55
184
5825
376
130
114
109.6
785

Resistance 2

26460
1173.5
23890
36550
15.95
32600
3700
58.1
186
5865
379
130.8
114.9
110.3
793

Important Events for Today

Indicator

Country

Time (IST)

Actual

HSBC Services PMI

China

7:15am

51.8

53.8

53.5

Medium

Spanish Services PMI

Euro

12:45pm

56.1

58.0

58.4

Medium

UK

2:00pm

58.5

57.4

56.5

High

Euro

2:30pm

0.2%

0.2%

0.7%

Medium

Services PMI
Retail Sales m/m

Forecast

Previous

Impact