Security Sector Responses to Climate Change

and the Political Economy of the Military:

The Case of Vietnam

Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer

Presentation to Regional Conference on The Impact and Implications of
Climate Change: Strategies and Security for ASEAN Member States
Organized by the Cambodian Institute for Cooperation and Peace and
funded by the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung.
Sokha Hotel, Phnom Penh, Cambodia
July 2-3, 2015

Introduction
Elitist Leninist authoritarian regime
Civil and military roles are fused
Historical legacies national defence and
socialist construction
Historical institutionalism salience of conflict
and external threats
Critical juncture 1989 Military Enterprises on
same legal footing as civilian enterprises

1 The Challenge of Climate Change

for Vietnam
Vietnam is one of the top ten countries
globally most likely to be impacted
negatively by climate change.
1st out of 10: GDP, Land Area, Wetlands,
East Asia Urban, East Asia Agriculture,
East Asia Wetlands and World Population
and 2nd out of 10 Urban Area

Sea Level Rise Inundation Zone

East Asia Urban, Agriculture & Wetlands and World Population

GDP, Wetlands, Urban Area, and Land Area

National Strategy on Climate Change,

2011-2020
Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment
designated lead agency, coordinates with
Ministry of Planning and Investment
Ministry of Finance
National Committee on Climate Change Advisory
Group

Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development

Disaster Management Centre
Central Committee for Storm and Flood Control

Hypothesized Impact of
Climate Change
1. Transformation of Vietnams one-party state
2. Response to climate stress by flight
3. Weakening of state control, enhanced autonomy
for provinces and southern region
4. Unlikely to trigger disruptive internal unrest or
broken back state
5. Military challenge from neighbours unlikey
6. Response: self-help & multilateral mechanisms

Part 2
Military-Run Enterprises in Vietnam
Historical Legacies
Two Strategic Tasks, 1975-86
Doi Moi and Its Impact on the Military
The First Wave of Reforms, 1995-97
The Second Wave of Reforms, 1998-2006
Divestiture of Commercial Enterprises

Historical Legacies
The military is one of four pillars of the
regime: Party, State, Fatherland Front
National defence, internal security, political
Anti French Resistance (1945-54) fighting and
economic production
Post-1954: production via state farms
(industrial crops) & economic construction
1965-75: most modern equipment

Two Strategic Tasks, 1975-86

Public order and security, unexploded ordnance,
re-education camps, district officers, new
economic zones
General Directorate for Economic Development
Capital Construction
roads, railways, ports, pipelines, industrial plants,
irrigation, hydropower, land reclamation and airports

Economic Production
afforestation, land cultivation, livestock breeding,
consumer goods at national defence industries

i Mi (Renovation)
and Its Impact on the Military
Strategic readjustment demobilization
Directive 46 (1989) independent economic
accounting system for all VPA enterprises
corporations (cng ty ) and general corporations
(cng ty tng cc)
Massive expansion of military in commercial
production

Four Major General Corporations

Truong Son Construction General Corporation
(12th Corps)
Major infrastructure projects

Flight Service Corporation

Tay Nguyen Corporation (15th Corps)
Rubber, rice, coffee, timber

Thanh An Construction and Assembly

Corporation (11th Corps)

First Wave of Reform, 1995-97

National Defence Industry and Economic
General Department
streamline, cut loss making enterprises
merging small and medium enterprises in the
same line of business
Work force reduced
Remit more revenue to the central government

Military enterprises reduced from 335 to 193

Reclassification of Military Enterprises

Defence-Economic Enterprises
produced and repaired weapons and military
equipment, sideline in commercial goods

National Defence Economic Enterprises

logistics support, produced civilian goods, remote
area economic development

Exclusive Economic Enterprises

producing and trading in commercial products

Second Wave of Reform, 19982006

Central Military Party Commission Directive (May
1988)
Improve business efficiency and ability to take on
major projects
dissolve loss-making military companies
Army enterprises came under increasing pressure to
concentrate on finding a permanent niche in the
civilian economy for themselves

New Economic Department created

Assigned to Economic-Defence Zones in remote
areas

Divestiture of Commercial
Enterprises
Party Central Committee (4th plenum, January
2007) Resolution
Army, police and mass organisations to divest
themselves of all commercial enterprises by 2012
140 Army enterprises to be affected
Army to retain ownership over companies directly
related to national defence and security

Global Economic Crisis 2007-08

Case Study: Military Telecommunications

General Corporation (Viettel)

Conclusion
The military has carved out a corporate role in
Vietnamese society
Military enterprises are former military units
and employ veterans and their families
Revenue is remitted to the state but also used
to improve the livelihood of soldiers and their
families
No real evidence of widespread corruption

Conclusion
The military has reformed its businesses in
parallel with efforts to reform of State-owned
enterprises
Difficult to separate commercial/business
operations from economic production
The political influence of the military within
the party has been static over many years
Politburo, Central Committee, National Assembly

Security Sector Responses to Climate Change

and the Political Economy of the Military:
The Case of Vietnam

Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer

Email: c.thayer@adfa.edu.au