Is Russia losing the battle to ISIS online?

Jun 25, 2015 Yury Barmi ANALYSIS53738

The Russian government needs to do more to counter ISIS propaganda in
social networks, which has proven successful of late in attracting and
recruiting young Russians from both the North Caucasus and the Volga
Region.

Shiite volunteers patrol the area as they secure it against the predominantly
Sunni militants from the Islamic State, previously called the Islamic State in
Iraq and the Greater Syria (ISIS), in the desert region between Kerbala and
Najaf, south of Baghdad, July 3, 2014. Photo: Reuters
It is no secret that Russian nationals are fighting in Syria and Iraq alongside the
so-called Islamic State of Iraq and the Greater Syria (ISIS). The Russian
government has been explicit about its concerns with regard to the
effectiveness of ISISrecruitment in the country among young people. The
estimates given by different officials and government institutions as to how
many Russian citizens have actually joined the terrorist organization vary from
2,000 to 5,000 people.
Something that experts and Russian officials agree on is the upward trend in
ISIS recruitment in Russia. Until now, they also agreed that the problem of
recruitment had essentially been limited to the Muslim regions of the North
Caucasus. Yet a string of recent events has shown that the scope of this
problem has been continuously underestimated in Russia.
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On June 16, FSB head Alexander Bortnikov told the National Antiterrorism
Committee that young people from Central Russia are now finding their way into

Syria where they join the Islamic State. Over 200 residents of the Volga
Region [the Volga Federal District] are fighting for the Islamists in Syria and
Iraq, Bortnikov argued. The key takeaway from this statement is that what was
previously regarded as a problem of the Muslim regions of the North Caucasus is
now plaguing Central Russia as well.
A shocking proof of these words came when four young girls, two of them
students at prestigious universities in Moscow and one - only 16 years old,
attempted to leave for Syria to join the Islamic State. The Kremlin was
certainly taken aback by the fact that ISIS propaganda has reached Moscow
and by how effective its recruitment approach turned out to be.
Vladimir Putins spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told journalists that the National
Antiterrorism Committee and FSB are now working on the recently revealed
cases. It [ISIS recruitment] is a serious issue and a dangerous process, he
said.
The North Caucasus seems to be a relatively easy target for ISIS in terms of
recruitment with members of local defeated extremist groups readily fleeing to
Syria, while Central Russia and the Volga Federal District with its large Muslim
community have been off-limits until now. 200 Russians from the Volga region
that, according to Bortnikov, have joined the Islamic State most likely came
from Bashkiria and Tatarstan, where Muslims constitute over 50 percent of the
population.
Social networks for aspiring jihadis
Yet the most shocking account of a Russian citizen trying to join the Islamic
State happened in Moscow, when a girl named Varvara Karaulova, a student from
the prestigious Moscow State University, disappeared from home. She traveled
to Turkey and only after her story went viral on Russian social networks thanks
to her father was she detained by the authorities at the Syrian border. The
story of Varvara Karaulova sheds light on how the Islamic State recruits new
members in Russia and other post-Soviet states.
The girl allegedly intended to travel to Syria to marry a man from Tatarstan,
who had already joined ISIS but whom Karaulova had never seen in person.
According to a Russian tabloid, she was introduced to her husband-to-be on V
Kontakte (VK), a Russian social network. After three years of virtual love on
VK and WhatsApp the man who goes under the name of Klaus Klaus asked
Karaulova, who had secretly adopted Islam, to travel to Syria in order to marry
him. The fact that the Russian girl was detained at the Syrian-Turkish border in
a group of 13 people indicates that the Islamic State is extremely good at
connecting its online recruits with people on the ground, including in Turkey, a
key transfer point for many new ISIS members.

The Russian authorities claim that Klaus is a professional recruiter of jihadi

wives for the Islamic State and that he had several such love affairs on VK.
Russian social networks, including VK and Odnoklassniki, are flooded with
extremist sympathizers and have become a key element of the ISIS
recruitment strategy in Russia. The Russian General Prosecutors office
demanded in October that VK take down seven pages associated with the
Islamic State, but the pace with which the authorities identify extremist
content online doesnt match that with which new ones pop up.
In fact, hundreds of ISIS communities still exist on VK, some of them disguised
as groups dedicated to Islam or religious preachers, while others operate
undisguised. Unlike Facebook and Twitter, VK does not have a policy that
requires the social network to block pro-ISIS accounts en masse. According to
VKs press secretary, the social network only blocks those accounts that incite
violence or terrorism.
It is estimated that there are over ten thousand small ISIS-related
communities on VK that openly post updates about daily life in the Islamic State,
poetry romanticizing jihad as well as match-making ads of young unmarried
fighters.

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students join ISIS"
ISIS members create accounts both in Russian and Arabic, which is why the
social network can only filter part of the content they post. It is even suggested
that the organization has decided to move some of its promotion activity from
Twitter and Facebook to the Russian social network where extremist posts are
less likely to be deleted.
Following the reports that several extremist groups from the North Caucasus
gave bayah (pledge of allegiance) to the Islamic State, the organization declared
its new governorate in the Southern region of Russia.
This event proves yet again that ISIS is looking to expand its influence into the
post-Soviet space. The recruitment mechanism that seems to be working
flawlessly at the moment is the major tool that will allow the organization to fill
the ranks of the Wilayat Qawqaz (The Caucasus Wilayat).

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The Russian government has so far primarily been dealing with fighters who
intend to join the Islamic State or those of them who return from Iraq and
Syria ignoring the roots of the problem. Recent incidents with Russian girls who
fell victim to ISIS propaganda prove, however, that it was a one-sided approach.

The government needs to counter the threat in the cyber domain where
extremist ideas increasingly gain mass appeal, which should include countering
ISIS rhetoric, targeting online recruitment communities and engaging social
networks in this fight.
Is ISIS propaganda threat exaggeration?
However, regardless of the increasing activity of the Islamic State in recurring
young Russians, some experts argue that the threat of ISIS propaganda is
exaggerated.
So far, it is significantly exaggerated by Russias intelligence and security
services, said Alexei Malashenko, an expert on religion and security matters for
the Moscow Carnegie Center, in an interview to Russia Direct. But at the same
time, we should not forget about ISIS propaganda, which is indeed transmitted
in about 23 languages, including Russian. And there have been some results.
Totally, there are between 1,700 and 3,000 Russian citizens who have joined the
Islamic State.
Malashenko highlights that many recruits have disappointed in the ISIS dream
and some came back. He believes that thinking that those who returned to
Russia from ISIS pose a significant threat is again an exaggeration.
At the same time, he warns that in the case of a worsening economic situation
and economic crisis, corruption and the growth of indignation in Northern
Caucasus, there might be social unrest, which could, partly, turn into religious
radicalism.
In this case, those who returned from ISIS, given their military experience,
could play a role, he said.