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EG15-05

May 12, 2015

Egg Sector Update: Special Report on Avian Influenza


Avian influenza (AI) is passed freely among migratory birds, often with little or no health consequence
for the infected animal. Because migratory birds generally suffer few adverse health effects from an AI
infection, they are able to serve as the primary vehicle for the virus to spread over long distances and
into domesticated poultry flocks, which have immune systems that are often ill-equipped to handle
many strains of the virus. In some respects, AI might be considered an ever-present danger for
domesticated fowl, though in actuality each outbreak plays out in very sporadic and often unpredictable
ways. Sometimes the virus disappears almost as quickly as it appears while other times the effects are
felt over multiple years. Typically this depends on the level of pathogenicity of the AI subtype in
question, although geographic and seasonal considerations generally come into play as well. In recent
years, the H5N1 and H7N9 subtypes of AI have done the most damage to domesticated poultry and egg
farming operations, predominantly in Southeast Asia but also in many other parts of the world,
including North America. At the present time, it is the H5N2 subtype that has a choke-hold on US
poultry and egg operations, particularly in the Upper Midwest.
Unlike the H5N1 and H7N9 subtypes, H5N2 is yet to demonstrate a serious threat to human health,
which is critical when examining this outbreak from a demand perspective; however, some health
officials have warned that the potential is still there for this strain of the virus to mutate in such a way
that humans are at risk of infection. While AI popped up on the West Coast as far back as December, it
was still considered little more than a nuisance until about two months ago when it started hitting
commercial turkey operations in the central US. AI was discovered in various flocks in Kansas,
Missouri, and Arkansas, raising fears the virus was about to spread into and through the Southeast,
where broiler production is most heavily concentrated. Officials were able to keep the virus contained
in those states, but AI popped up in Minnesota around that same time and quickly spilled over into Iowa
and other surrounding states. Health and veterinary officials in that part of the country have had little
success in preventing the virus from spreading, and the rate at which new cases have been reported over
the past couple of weeks suggests the outbreak is hardly slowing down.
Initially it was the US turkey industry that felt the brunt of the outbreak, and the losses in that sector are
certainly consequential, but its the table egg laying sector thats now faced with the most staggering
losses. Below (next page) is a table that reflects the most current tally of affected animals from the
Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) division of the United States Department of
Agriculture (USDA). APHIS breaks down the losses by geographic location, flock type (commercial or
backyard), species grouping, AI subtype, confirmation date, and flock size. For the purpose of this
report, Informa has isolated only the losses falling under the species grouping labeled Chickens.
While APHIS does not differentiate the specific type of chicken in its reporting, other information
sources available to the public suggest that the overwhelming majority all the chickens that have been
infected are table egg laying hens as opposed to broilers.
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Egg Sector Update


EG15-04
May 12, 2015

State
County
Iowa
Wright
Iowa
Sioux
Iowa
Sioux
Iowa
Wright
Iowa
Sioux
Iowa
Sioux
Iowa
Osceola
Iowa
Wright
Minnesota
Nicollet
Iowa
Madison
Iowa
Sioux
Iowa
Kossuth
Iowa
Clay
Iowa
Buena Vista
Iowa
Buena Vista
Minnesota
Stearns
Iowa
Sioux
Iowa
Osceola
Iowa
O'Brien
Iowa
O'Brien
Iowa
Sioux
Wisconsin
Jefferson
Minnesota
Clay
Iowa
Osceola
Wisconsin
Jefferson
California
Kings
Washington
Okanogan
Source: USDA/APHIS

Page 2

Flyway
Mississippi
Mississippi
Mississippi
Mississippi
Mississippi
Mississippi
Mississippi
Mississippi
Mississippi
Mississippi
Mississippi
Mississippi
Mississippi
Mississippi
Mississippi
Mississippi
Mississippi
Mississippi
Mississippi
Mississippi
Mississippi
Mississippi
Mississippi
Mississippi
Mississippi
Pacific
Pacific

Flock Type
Commercial
Commercial
Commercial
Commercial
Commercial
Commercial
Commercial
Commercial
Commercial
Commercial
Commercial
Commercial
Commercial
Commercial
Commercial
Commercial
Commercial
Commercial
Commercial
Commercial
Commercial
Commercial
Commercial
Commercial
Commercial
Commercial
Backyard

Species
Chickens
Chickens
Chickens
Chickens
Chickens
Chickens
Chickens
Chickens
Chickens
Chickens
Chickens
Chickens
Chickens
Chickens
Chickens
Chickens
Chickens
Chickens
Chickens
Chickens
Chickens
Chickens
Chickens
Chickens
Chickens
Chickens
Chickens

AI Subtype
EA/AM-H5N2
EA/AM-H5N2
EA/AM-H5N2
EA/AM-H5N2
EA/AM-H5N2
EA/AM-H5N2
EA/AM-H5N2
EA/AM-H5N2
EA/AM-H5N2
EA/AM-H5N2
EA/AM-H5N2
EA/AM-H5N2
EA/AM-H5N2
EA/AM-H5N2
EA/AM-H5N2
EA/AM-H5N2
EA/AM-H5N2
EA/AM-H5N2
EA/AM-H5N2
EA/AM-H5N2
EA/AM-H5N2
EA/AM-H5N2
EA/AM-H5N2
EA/AM-H5N2
EA/AM-H5N2
EA-H5N8
EA/AM-H5N2

Conf. Date
8-May-15
8-May-15
8-May-15
7-May-15
7-May-15
7-May-15
7-May-15
5-May-15
5-May-15
4-May-15
1-May-15
1-May-15
1-May-15
1-May-15
30-Apr-15
29-Apr-15
28-Apr-15
28-Apr-15
28-Apr-15
28-Apr-15
27-Apr-15
24-Apr-15
23-Apr-15
20-Apr-15
11-Apr-15
12-Feb-15
3-Feb-15
Total:

Flock Size
pending
581,300
100,000
2,800,000
pending
1,000,000
100,000
1,031,200
pending
1,795,900
165,200
18,800
93,000
5,700,000
40,800
202,500
3,660,000
258,000
98,000
240,000
1,700,000
1,031,000
175,000
3,800,000
200,000
112,900
40
24,903,640

As the table indicates, just short of 25 million chickens almost all table egg laying hens have been
lost in this outbreak in just the past month alone in Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. There are multiple
pending cases, most likely situations in which the mortality rate is elevated and AI is suspected but
additional testing is still needed, which could easily push that total to more than 30 million by midweek.
Coupled with the losses experienced in the turkey sector between 5.5 and 6.0 million birds based on
recent counts its now safe to say that the current AI outbreak has moved into unprecedented territory.
The last time anything similar happened in the US was 1983 when a total of 17 million birds,
predominantly in the Northeast, of all species were lost. Arguably the 2003-04 outbreak would still be
considered more significant than the present one from a global perspective as the animal death loss
totaled in excess of 100 million while the effects on human health were also devastating.
That 2003-04 outbreak that rocked Southeast Asia was difficult to contain given the lack of modernity
in production systems there. Whats making the current spread of H5N2 through the Midwest so
troublesome and confounding to many health officials working to contain and eradicate it is that the
US poultry and egg sector is supposedly the world leader in housing technology and biosecurity
measures. The advanced housing systems in place here in the US are supposed to limit the flocks
exposure to outside elements and specifically other animals that transmit infectious diseases such as
rodents or migratory birds while making containment easier should contamination occur. In the
Midwest, containment has been an elusive concept, which suggests the possibility of widespread lapses
in biosecurity measures but may also indicate just how potent the H5N2 subtype is and how remarkably
capable it is in moving from place to place. This naturally leads into a question of just how many more
birds may be at risk given the difficulty containing AI up to this point.

Copyright 2015 by Informa Economics, Inc.

Egg Sector Update


EG15-04
May 12, 2015

Page 3

Below is a snapshot of key Midwest states and breakdown of how many table egg layers can be found
in each and what that means in terms of share of total inventories on the national stage. Iowa is
suffering the biggest losses, and its the state with the most layers in the US by a fairly wide margin.
Reiterating the point from above about current pending cases, the number of table egg layers lost to
H5N2 in Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin is likely to exceed 30 million by midweek. According to
USDA/NASS, there were slightly more than 70 million layers on hand, on average, in those three states
in 2014. You can add an additional 40-45 million hens possibly at risk in Illinois, Indiana, and
Michigan, which is only notable as a backyard poultry flock in Indiana is likely to test positive for the
H5N8 subtype of AI very soon following a weekend discovery. This subtype has been present in other
areas as part of this broader outbreak, although it hasnt been moving with anywhere near the intensity
and ferocity of the H5N2 subtype. As health officials continue to warn, however, adaptations and
mutations can and do happen, meaning complacency is not an option regardless of the subtype. One
other consideration if AI spears to be heading east is the fact that theres another 50+ million table egg
laying hens in Ohio and Pennsylvania combined.

Copyright 2015 by Informa Economics, Inc.

Egg Sector Update


EG15-04
May 12, 2015

Page 4

It has come up a few times in this report that health officials seem almost baffled as to why current
containment efforts appear to be falling short, and Informa mentioned at the outset that AI has long had
a reputation of being sporadic and unpredictable. With that in mind, hazarding a guess as to the
ultimate damage to US egg industry could very well be an exercise in futility at this point. Informa will
simply do its best based on the current understanding, limited as it is, of this AI outbreak and what has
been generally observed in past ones, taking geographic, seasonal, and biosecurity factors into
consideration. Death losses should soon exceed 30 million table egg layers. The speed at which the
outbreak is moving makes a hard stop to its spread seem highly unlikely. There are at least another 3040 million hens under at least a moderate threat level with another 40-50 million hens that carry a
limited risk of getting infected near-term. Health and veterinary officials have had some time now to
assess the situation and should be able to use their recent lack of success as a way of developing a better
plan of action. On top of that, the approach of summer and arrival of hotter, dryer weather is supposed
to make it more difficult for AI to survive even over shorter journeys. There should still be a few more
cases pop up in the coming weeks, but Informa expects the losses to start tapering off soon. An
additional 10-15 million hens are expected to be lost on top of whats already confirmed and pending
additional testing. That would put total layer inventory losses at around 40-45 million. The graphic
below illustrates death loss trends with the current and projected impact from AI and indicates what the
effect on overall layer inventories will be going forward.

Exceptional profitability throughout the US egg industry last year was fueling an aggressive
expansionary push by many producers, even with uncertainty around the implementation of Proposition
2 in California. Breeding hen inventories reached an all-time high earlier this year, and the replacement
stock from those layers was expected to push the overall table egg laying flock to at least 310-315
million during the second half of 2015. Mounting death losses due to AI will derail that surge in layer
inventories, pushing the flock back down into the 260-270 million range by late summer. Assuming the
virus just fades naturally and/or US egg industry gets much better equipped at handling it, layer

Copyright 2015 by Informa Economics, Inc.

Egg Sector Update


EG15-04
May 12, 2015

Page 5

inventories will be poised for a V-shaped recovery later this year and should keep growing rapidly
through next year. Given the extensive damage done to inventories in the coming months, it will still
take a year or more in a rebuilding effort to get table egg layer numbers back above the 300-million
mark. All these missing layers represent lost egg production as well, which will put a squeeze on shell
egg and egg product supplies for a while to come.

Unlike the US broiler and turkey sectors, the US egg industry has maintained a healthy export program
during this unfolding AI mess. Shipments of US broiler meat were down 11% from year prior levels
during the January-March time period while turkey meat shipments were down 5.8% from year-ago
during that same time period. As the chart above reflects, total US table egg exports during the first
three months of 2015 registered at 1.19 billion eggs (shell egg equivalent), which represented a 20%
increase from year-ago. Export gains during that time period were led by Canada (+16%) and Mexico
(+84%), with the latter a particularly aggressive buyer of US eggs, importing 455 million during the
January-March time period. Mexico is the top consumer of eggs in the world on a per capita basis, and
they have stepped up purchases of US eggs considerably the past 2-3 years due to persistent production
shortfalls related to an outbreak of the H7N3 subtype of AI. Export business has been booming lately,
but Informa sees shipments declining sharply relative to year-ago levels through the balance of 2015, if
for no other reason than a drastic reduction in production capabilities will leave significantly fewer eggs
available to export. Sharp price increases in the near-term will also make eggs cost-prohibitive for some
foreign buyers. A slowdown on the export side will help to some degree with domestic availability,
although it pales in comparison the squeeze that will result from lost production. The recent growth
trajectory of the US egg industry was about to put per capita availability of table eggs in the US at a
three-decade high, but catastrophic losses from AI should easily prevent that from happening.
Copyright 2015 by Informa Economics, Inc.

Egg Sector Update


EG15-04
May 12, 2015

Page 6

Per capita availability of table eggs in the US is charted below on an annual basis since the early 1990s
and includes Informas outlook for both 2015 and 2016 as well. Egg supplies are broken down into the
shell egg and further-processed components. Egg product supplies were record large on a per capita
basis in 2014 and were poised to increase an additional 4%-5%, at least, this year before AI struck.
Based on the geography of farms that have been impacted by the virus and how prices across the entire
egg segment are responding, it appears that the most of the negative impact has been on operations that
supply eggs for the processing segment of the industry as opposed to the shell egg side of the business.
Regardless, both sectors are poised to incur massive supply losses this year, and per capita availability
of all table eggs is projected at 240.5 (shell egg equivalent) overall in 2015. That would represent the
smallest per capita supply total since 1998. Informa sees a decent 3%-4% recovery in per capita
supplies next year, but the industry needs to get to a point where it seems theyre putting AI behind
them before we can feel very confident about that outlook.

Supply losses are going to be deep and painful, notably for buyers and ultimately consumers that will be
forced to pay higher prices for eggs, shell or processed. It will also be very painful and costly for the
suppliers of these shell and processed eggs that have lost so many millions of birds. Egg producers
unaffected by the outbreak will enjoy surging sales at exceptional price points, creating one of the
biggest windfalls of all-time. This all assumes that demand largely holds together, which is hardly a
guarantee when dealing with an animal health issue that is at least tangentially related to human health
and may wind up being more directly related going forward. As the chart below (next page) indicates,
shell egg demand went through a relative soft patch through much of 2010 and early 2011, and this is
often attributed to a salmonella outbreak when nearly 2,000 human illnesses were reported.

Copyright 2015 by Informa Economics, Inc.

Egg Sector Update


EG15-04
May 12, 2015

Page 7

Demand has held together relatively well this time around despite heightened coverage of the AI
outbreak in mainstream press. Informa doesnt see that changing much so long as the virus behavior
remains fairly consistent in terms of being lethal only for birds. If that leap into the human population is
made and illness and even death becomes widespread, demand could wind up unraveling just as fast
as the supply side has as losses have mounted. Assuming demand holds together reasonably well,
however, spot prices across the entire complex are poised to be incredibly strong for at least the next
few months until some supply relief is finally made available. Buyers should be prepared for a volatile,
unpredictable, and likely uncomfortable ride over the next several months. Informa has shifted its price
outlook for all key markets sharply higher in lieu of recent developments, and there is likely
considerable upside risk beyond what the outlook suggests.

Due to the pressing and explosive nature of the AI situation, Informa believed it necessary to devote as
much commentary as possible to the topic. Attached to the end of this report is the regular set of tables
and charts that provide updates on the extended set of supply variables and prices that are typically
discussed in greater detail. Due to the constantly evolving nature of this AI outbreak, Informa
encourages readers to reach out to Mark Jordan, Director of Poultry Egg Services, directly at (901) 2024412 to stay abreast of developments.
MWJ
This copyrighted material is intended for the use of clients of Informa Economics, Inc., only and may not be reproduced or electronically
transmitted to other companies or individuals, whole or in part, without the prior written permission of Informa Economics, Inc. The information
contained herein is believed to be reliable and the views expressed within this document reflect judgments at this time and are subject to change
without notice. Informa Economics, Inc., does not guarantee that the information contained herein is accurate or complete and it should not be
relied upon as such.
Copyright 2015 by Informa Economics, Inc.

Egg Sector Update


EG15-04
May 12, 2015

Page 8

EGG PRODUCTION DURING MONTH, TABLE EGG TYPE, MILLION EGGS


YEAR
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
% change 14/13
% change 15/14
% change 16/15
14 cumulative
15 cumulative
16 cumulative
% cum chg 14/13
% cum chg 15/14
% cum chg 16/15

JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
6,912
6,361
6,934
6,690
6,852
6,622
6,832
7,160
6,437
7,198
6,954
7,124
6,878
7,085
7,321
6,579
7,354
7,160
7,336
7,091
7,404
7,428
6,612
7,417
6,983
6,842
6,361
6,430
6,193
6,931
6,753
6,972
6,801
7,104
6,844
2.2%
2.2%
2.2%
3.0%
3.0%
3.1%
4.5%
1.5%
0.5%
0.9% -2.5% -6.7% -10.3% -13.2%
-7.9% -6.3% -6.6% -3.3%
1.9%
6.9% 10.5%
7,321 13,900 21,254 28,414 35,750 42,841 50,245
7,428 14,040 21,457 28,440 35,282 41,643 48,073
6,844 13,037 19,968 26,721 33,693 40,494 47,598
2.2%
2.2%
2.2%
2.4%
2.5%
2.6%
2.9%
1.5%
1.0%
1.0%
0.1% -1.3% -2.8% -4.3%
-7.9% -7.1% -6.9% -6.0% -4.5% -2.8% -1.0%

TABLE EGG LAYERS, 1st OF MONTH, MILLION HENS


YEAR
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
% change 14/13
% change 15/14
% change 16/15

JAN
290.1
298.6
304.3
308.2
281.7
1.9%
1.3%
-8.6%

FEB
289.1
298.8
302.3
304.6
281.0
1.2%
0.8%
-7.7%

MAR
290.3
300.6
303.0
304.7
283.0
0.8%
0.6%
-7.1%

APR
291.1
300.2
304.4
303.1
285.1
1.4%
-0.4%
-5.9%

MAY
289.3
296.0
304.3
289.7
285.6
2.8%
-4.8%
-1.4%

JAN
23.9
24.0
24.1
24.2
24.3
0.7%
0.5%
0.3%

FEB
22.0
21.5
21.7
21.7
22.0
1.2%
-0.2%
1.2%

MAR
23.9
24.0
24.2
24.4
24.4
1.0%
0.7%
0.0%

APR
23.1
23.3
23.5
23.6
23.7
0.9%
0.2%
0.4%

MAY
23.7
24.0
24.2
24.2
24.3
0.6%
0.2%
0.5%

JUN
23.0
23.2
23.4
23.4
23.5
1.0%
0.1%
0.5%

JUL
23.8
23.8
24.3
24.2
24.3
2.1%
-0.6%
0.5%

EGG-TYPE CHICKS HATCHED DURING MONTH, MILLION CHICKS


YEAR
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
% change 14/13
% change 15/14
% change 16/15
14 cumulative
15 cumulative
16 cumulative
% cum chg 14/13
% cum chg 15/14
% cum chg 16/15

JAN
41.3
43.8
44.5
44.2
46.9
1.4%
-0.6%
6.1%
44.5
44.2
46.9
1.4%
-0.6%
6.1%

FEB
40.5
42.2
41.0
43.1
44.7
-3.0%
5.1%
3.7%
85.4
87.3
91.6
-0.7%
2.1%
4.9%

MAR
43.1
43.6
44.2
50.4
49.2
1.5%
14.0%
-2.4%
129.7
137.7
140.7
0.0%
6.2%
2.2%

APR
43.2
46.0
45.7
50.0
49.8
-0.7%
9.4%
-0.3%
175.4
187.7
190.6
-0.2%
7.0%
1.5%

MAY
44.6
50.2
49.1
50.6
51.9
-2.0%
3.0%
2.5%
224.5
238.3
242.4
-0.6%
6.1%
1.8%

JUN
38.8
42.3
44.0
44.8
45.6
4.2%
1.7%
1.9%
268.5
283.0
288.1
0.2%
5.4%
1.8%

JUL
36.0
39.9
42.3
42.2
43.1
5.9%
-0.1%
2.1%
310.8
325.3
331.2
0.9%
4.7%
1.8%

JAN
4.6
7.0
20.8
22.1
39.4
10.2

FEB
(5.1)
4.7
36.9
37.1
31.5
10.3

MAR
2.4
11.2
36.8
70.8
41.2
14.0

APR
(3.1)
(0.3)
46.4
29.6
26.2
10.1

MAY
(16.1)
7.5
28.0
37.9
24.6
(0.4)

JUN
(6.1)
(4.5)
27.8
40.6
23.8
(0.1)

JUL
(1.9)
10.3
37.5
46.9
30.9
7.2

DEC
301.7
306.1
310.1
280.9
310.2
1.3%
-9.4%
10.4%

AVG
291.5
299.6
304.8
284.7
291.9
1.7%
-6.6%
2.5%

Informa forecast in bold.


AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
23.9
23.1
23.9
23.4
24.0
23.4
24.2
23.6
24.2
23.3
24.3
23.9
24.2
23.5
24.3
23.8
24.4
23.6
24.5
23.9
0.9% -0.6%
0.1%
1.3%
0.2%
0.9%
0.3% -0.3%
0.5%
0.4%
0.5%
0.5%

DEC
TOTAL
24.2
281.6
24.3
283.3
24.7
285.8
24.6
286.2
24.8
287.6
1.5%
0.9%
-0.2%
0.1%
0.5%
0.5%

Informa forecast in bold.


AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
42.3
38.3
37.9
36.5
38.8
42.2
42.5
41.8
39.8
43.7
44.5
36.5
43.5
44.4
44.5
41.6
45.0
45.6
45.2
42.4
2.6%
3.7%
4.6% -12.7%
9.2%
1.5%
0.1% 13.9%
3.6%
2.6%
1.6%
1.8%
350.6
394.4
438.8
475.4
368.8
413.2
457.7
499.3
376.2
421.8
467.0
509.4
1.1%
1.4%
1.7%
0.4%
5.2%
4.8%
4.3%
5.0%
2.0%
2.1%
2.0%
2.0%

DEC
TOTAL
41.0
483.4
41.1
514.5
43.0
518.3
44.2
543.4
43.7
553.1
4.5%
0.8%
2.8%
4.8%
-1.1%
1.8%
518.3
543.4
553.1
0.8%
4.8%
1.8%

AVERAGE EGG INDUSTRY MARGINS, CENTS/DOZEN (Informa calc.)


YEAR
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
10-14 average

Informa forecast in bold.


SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
TOTAL
6,727
7,046
7,022
7,263
82,183
7,028
7,300
7,172
7,422
84,944
7,126
7,433
7,353
7,633
87,184
6,363
6,670
6,628
6,934
81,144
7,064
7,405
7,352
7,683
84,318
1.4%
1.8%
2.5%
2.8%
2.6%
-10.7% -10.3% -9.9% -9.2%
-6.9%
11.0% 11.0% 10.9% 10.8%
3.9%
64,765 72,198 79,551 87,184
60,912 67,582 74,210 81,144
61,878 69,283 76,635 84,318
2.7%
2.6%
2.6%
2.6%
-5.9% -6.4% -6.7% -6.9%
1.6%
2.5%
3.3%
3.9%

Informa forecast in bold.


JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
289.1
287.5
287.8
290.6
292.9
297.8
297.2
296.7
298.0
300.9
299.3
303.0
302.9
303.1
305.2
305.6
306.4
306.2
275.8
267.3
264.3
269.8
271.9
276.4
287.7
290.2
293.9
298.3
300.5
305.1
1.9%
2.1%
2.4%
1.6%
2.4%
1.1%
-9.0% -11.8% -13.4% -11.7% -11.3% -9.7%
4.3%
8.6% 11.2% 10.5% 10.5% 10.4%

TABLE EGG PRODUCTION PER LAYER DURING MONTH (Informa calc.)


YEAR
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
% change 14/13
% change 15/14
% change 16/15

AUG
6,922
7,186
7,394
6,476
7,216
2.9%
-12.4%
11.4%
57,639
54,549
54,814
2.9%
-5.4%
0.5%

AUG
12.8
18.6
32.9
54.0
35.5
16.4

Informa forecast in bold.


SEP
OCT
NOV
13.5
9.7
19.2
19.0
21.3
41.7
33.5
34.7
53.0
52.5
53.3
61.3
35.0
35.4
49.0
13.9
14.5
31.4

DEC
15.4
48.4
84.7
75.5
64.3
39.3

AVG
3.8
15.4
39.4
48.5
36.4
13.9

Copyright 2015 by Informa Economics, Inc.

Egg Sector Update


EG15-04
May 12, 2015

Page 9

Informa Economics
EGG & EGG PRODUCT PRICE FORECASTS
low end of reported range
2013
JFM
Eggs (cents/dozen)
Table Eggs, Midwest, Large, A
UB NE Shell Eggs, Large, White
UB MW Shell Eggs, Large, White
UB National Breaking Stock

2013
AMJ

2013
JAS

2013
OND

2014
JFM

2014
AMJ

2014
JAS

2014
OND

2015
JFM

2015
AMJ

2015
JAS

Informa forecast in bold.


2015 2016 2016 2016
OND JFM AMJ JAS

2016
OND

CURRENT
PRICE

119
133
131
66

103
116
113
65

112
125
123
78

136
149
147
90

133
149
147
85

132
141
140
102

122
135
134
82

158
167
170
99

149
153
150
76

129
137
134
93

145
160
158
106

159
172
172
108

134
144
142
80

114
123
121
84

122
136
134
90

142
153
154
99

5/11/2015
117
139
139
104

56
51
87

60
66
76

73
77
76

76
88
66

71
91
59

93
121
65

76
124
65

82
101
67

63
62
76

78
73
93

85
86
84

91
85
83

67
65
72

72
70
78

76
78
77

81
76
78

91
75
94

UB Dried Whole Eggs


UB Dried Albumen
UB Dried Yolk

273
482
242

277
604
201

311
728
195

323
816
173

308
901
152

396
1309
153

393
1424
151

383
1199
159

330
840
187

378
801
236

399
846
254

401
725
252

338
600
217

346
642
210

367
703
222

374
648
226

375
745
235

UB Frozen
UB Frozen
UB Frozen
UB Frozen

73
68
108
105

78
84
94
91

91
94
93
90

95
107
87
84

90
113
80
77

118
140
83
80

110
144
83
80

104
125
85
82

79
83
92
89

98
95
116
113

117
113
111
108

119
107
103
100

89
84
94
91

95
87
98
95

105
96
99
95

105
93
97
94

105
89
110
107

Egg Products (cents/lb)


UB Raw Liquid Whole Eggs
UB Raw Liquid Whites
UB Raw Liquid Yolks

Whole Eggs
Whites
Sugar Yolk
Salted Yolk

TABLE EGG TYPE LAYERS, PULLETS ADDED, AND LAYERS CULLED / REMOVED (million birds)
JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

JFM

AMJ

JAS

OND

2010
TABLE EGG LAYERS, 1st OF MONTH
PULLETS ADDED DURING MONTH
LAYERS CULLED / REMOVED
% OF LAYERS CULLED / REMOVED

285.2 282.8 284.1 285.7 282.0 282.4 283.6 282.2 284.9 280.9 280.9 285.8 284.0 283.4 283.6 282.5
20.7 23.0 24.0 21.9 23.2 24.1 22.7 20.6 23.2 22.6 23.3 24.0 67.7 69.2 66.5 69.9
23.1 21.7 22.3 25.7 22.8 22.9 24.0 17.9 27.2 22.6 18.4 23.0 67.1 71.4 69.2 64.0
8.1% 7.7% 7.9% 9.0% 8.1% 8.1% 8.5% 6.3% 9.6% 8.0% 6.6% 8.1% 7.9% 8.4% 8.1% 7.5%

2011
TABLE EGG LAYERS, 1st OF MONTH
PULLETS ADDED DURING MONTH
LAYERS CULLED / REMOVED
% OF LAYERS CULLED / REMOVED

286.8 283.2 282.2 284.7 281.5 278.6 281.6 281.6 284.6 285.0 287.9 290.4 284.1 281.6 282.6 287.8
22.0 22.3 26.2 21.8 23.8 23.1 22.2 22.1 23.8 22.4 21.1 24.4 70.5 68.8 68.1 67.8
25.6 23.3 23.7 25.0 26.8 20.1 22.3 19.1 23.4 19.5 18.7 24.6 72.7 71.8 64.7 62.7
8.9% 8.2% 8.4% 8.8% 9.5% 7.2% 7.9% 6.8% 8.2% 6.8% 6.5% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 7.6% 7.3%

2012
TABLE EGG LAYERS, 1st OF MONTH
PULLETS ADDED DURING MONTH
LAYERS CULLED / REMOVED
% OF LAYERS CULLED / REMOVED

290.1 289.1 290.3 291.1 289.3 289.1 287.5 287.8 290.6 292.9 297.8 301.7 289.9 289.8 288.7 297.5
22.9 23.9 24.3 22.3 26.5 24.9 20.3 26.5 23.0 23.3 24.0 21.9 71.1 73.7 69.8 69.2
23.9 22.7 23.6 24.1 26.8 26.4 20.0 23.7 20.8 18.4 20.0 25.1 70.1 77.3 64.5 63.5
8.2% 7.8% 8.1% 8.3% 9.3% 9.1% 7.0% 8.2% 7.2% 6.3% 6.7% 8.3% 8.1% 8.9% 7.4% 7.1%

2013
TABLE EGG LAYERS, 1st OF MONTH
PULLETS ADDED DURING MONTH
LAYERS CULLED / REMOVED
% OF LAYERS CULLED / REMOVED

298.6 298.8 300.6 300.2 296.0 297.2 296.7 298.0 300.9 299.3 303.0 306.1 299.3 297.8 298.5 302.8
25.0 23.5 25.2 23.0 25.6 23.3 23.9 21.8 24.2 26.4 23.9 23.7 73.7 71.8 69.8 74.0
24.8 21.7 25.5 27.2 24.5 23.7 22.6 18.9 25.8 22.7 20.8 25.5 72.0 75.3 67.3 68.9
8.3% 7.3% 8.5% 9.0% 8.3% 8.0% 7.6% 6.3% 8.6% 7.6% 6.9% 8.3% 8.0% 8.4% 7.5% 7.6%

2014
TABLE EGG LAYERS, 1st OF MONTH
PULLETS ADDED DURING MONTH
LAYERS CULLED / REMOVED
% OF LAYERS CULLED / REMOVED

304.3 302.3 303.0 304.4 304.3 302.9 303.1 305.2 305.6 306.4 306.2 310.1 303.2 303.9 304.6 307.6
22.8 24.5 24.2 24.2 24.6 23.2 25.6 25.0 23.3 24.9 23.6 23.7 71.6 72.0 74.0 72.2
24.8 23.9 22.8 24.4 25.9 23.1 23.5 24.7 22.5 25.1 19.8 25.6 71.5 73.3 70.6 70.4
8.1% 7.9% 7.5% 8.0% 8.5% 7.6% 7.7% 8.1% 7.4% 8.2% 6.5% 8.2% 7.9% 8.0% 7.7% 7.6%

2015
TABLE EGG LAYERS, 1st OF MONTH
PULLETS ADDED DURING MONTH
LAYERS CULLED / REMOVED
% OF LAYERS CULLED / REMOVED

308.2 304.6 304.7 303.1 289.7 275.8 267.3 264.3 269.8 271.9 276.4 280.9 305.8 289.5 267.1 276.4
23.9 23.3 25.1 21.9 26.7 25.0 24.7 26.6 26.1 26.2 25.2 25.7 72.3 73.6 77.4 77.1
27.4 23.2 26.8 35.3 40.6 33.5 27.7 21.1 24.1 21.7 20.7 24.9 77.4 109.4 72.8 67.3
8.9% 7.6% 8.8% 11.7% 14.0% 12.1% 10.4% 8.0% 8.9% 8.0% 7.5% 8.9% 8.4% 12.6% 9.1% 8.1%

2016
TABLE EGG LAYERS, 1st OF MONTH
PULLETS ADDED DURING MONTH
LAYERS CULLED / REMOVED
% OF LAYERS CULLED / REMOVED

281.7 281.0 283.0 285.1 285.6 287.7 290.2 293.9 298.3 300.5 305.1 310.2 281.9 286.1 294.2 305.3
25.4 25.6 27.3 24.7 27.8 26.1 25.5 26.6 26.3 26.9 25.7 26.1 78.3 78.6 78.4 78.8
26.1 23.7 25.1 24.2 25.7 23.6 21.8 22.3 24.2 22.3 20.7 22.9 74.9 73.5 68.2 65.9
9.3% 8.4% 8.9% 8.5% 9.0% 8.2% 7.5% 7.6% 8.1% 7.4% 6.8% 7.4% 8.9% 8.6% 7.7% 7.2%

Copyright 2015 by Informa Economics, Inc.

Egg Sector Update


EG15-04
May 12, 2015

Page 10

EGGS PROCESSED UNDER FEDERAL INSPECTION


Million Eggs Broken, Weekly
2012
2013
2014
Week Ended
Weekly
Weekly
Weekly
495
512
496
1/10/2015
479
494
504
1/17/2015
475
480
487
1/24/2015
456
466
498
1/31/2015
472
489
486
2/7/2015
470
494
485
2/14/2015
455
489
485
2/21/2015
463
489
494
2/28/2015
472
488
499
3/7/2015
455
483
506
3/14/2015
452
491
502
3/21/2015
448
482
501
3/28/2015
469
513
523
4/4/2015
490
525
503
4/11/2015
499
517
529
4/18/2015
494
516
534
4/25/2015
522
507
555
5/2/2015
510
501
552
5/9/2015
507
495
547
5/16/2015
492
512
551
5/23/2015
472
510
529
5/30/2015
512
549
550
6/6/2015
507
547
567
6/13/2015
509
532
564
6/20/2015
491
513
569
6/27/2015
467
496
515
7/4/2015
512
539
554
7/11/2015
495
541
535
7/18/2015
496
529
547
7/25/2015
488
550
532
8/1/2015
536
535
541
8/8/2015
541
541
541
8/15/2015
548
529
541
8/22/2015
537
525
536
8/29/2015
512
503
527
9/5/2015
497
523
570
9/12/2015
494
521
552
9/19/2015
505
514
550
9/26/2015
522
518
547
10/3/2015
508
525
530
10/10/2015
499
519
551
10/17/2015
493
524
551
10/24/2015
478
506
542
10/31/2015
512
508
554
11/7/2015
506
494
531
11/14/2015
456
488
519
11/21/2015
500
454
464
11/28/2015
507
503
529
12/5/2015
493
491
494
12/12/2015
500
491
526
12/19/2015
520
451
484
12/26/2015
468
477
484
1/2/2016
Source: USDA/AMS Weekly Processed Eggs Report

Informa forecast in bold.


2015
2012
2013
2014
2015
2015/2014
Weekly
Cumulative Cumulative Cumulative Cumulative % of last year
565
495
512
496
565
113.91%
543
974
1,006
1,000
1,108
110.84%
524
1,449
1,486
1,486
1,632
109.83%
532
1,905
1,952
1,984
2,164
109.09%
530
2,377
2,441
2,470
2,694
109.07%
520
2,847
2,935
2,956
3,214
108.74%
510
3,302
3,424
3,441
3,724
108.23%
513
3,765
3,913
3,936
4,237
107.67%
496
4,237
4,401
4,435
4,733
106.74%
487
4,693
4,884
4,941
5,221
105.67%
494
5,145
5,375
5,442
5,715
105.01%
496
5,593
5,857
5,943
6,210
104.50%
506
6,062
6,370
6,467
6,716
103.86%
524
6,552
6,895
6,970
7,241
103.89%
521
7,050
7,412
7,498
7,762
103.52%
526
7,544
7,928
8,033
8,288
103.18%
512
8,066
8,436
8,587
8,800
102.47%
8,576
8,937
9,139
495
9,295
101.70%
9,083
9,432
9,686
488
9,783
101.00%
9,575
9,944
10,236
490
10,273
100.35%
10,047
10,454
10,765
468
10,740
99.77%
10,559
11,003
11,316
496
11,236
99.29%
11,067
11,550
11,882
508
11,744
98.83%
11,576
12,082
12,446
505
12,249
98.41%
12,067
12,596
13,015
510
12,759
98.03%
12,533
13,092
13,531
469
13,228
97.76%
13,045
13,631
14,085
504
13,732
97.49%
13,541
14,172
14,619
487
14,219
97.26%
14,037
14,701
15,166
499
14,718
97.04%
14,525
15,251
15,698
486
15,204
96.85%
15,061
15,786
16,239
469
15,673
96.52%
15,601
16,327
16,780
469
16,142
96.20%
16,149
16,857
17,320
468
16,610
95.90%
16,686
17,381
17,857
463
17,074
95.61%
17,198
17,884
18,384
483
17,557
95.50%
17,695
18,407
18,954
523
18,080
95.39%
18,189
18,928
19,506
506
18,586
95.29%
18,695
19,442
20,056
506
19,092
95.19%
19,216
19,960
20,603
504
19,596
95.11%
19,724
20,485
21,133
480
20,076
95.00%
20,222
21,004
21,684
500
20,576
94.89%
20,716
21,528
22,235
500
21,075
94.78%
21,193
22,033
22,777
491
21,566
94.68%
21,705
22,542
23,331
473
22,039
94.46%
22,211
23,036
23,861
452
22,491
94.26%
22,667
23,524
24,380
440
22,932
94.06%
23,167
23,978
24,844
393
23,324
93.88%
23,673
24,481
25,373
484
23,809
93.83%
24,167
24,972
25,867
452
24,261
93.79%
24,666
25,463
26,393
482
24,743
93.75%
25,186
25,914
26,877
444
25,187
93.71%
25,654
26,392
27,362
446
25,633
93.68%

Copyright 2015 by Informa Economics, Inc.

Egg Sector Update


EG15-04
May 12, 2015

Page 11

SHELL EGGS BROKEN AND EGG PRODUCT PRODUCTION


YEAR
JAN
FEB
M AR
APR
MAY
SHELL EGGS BROKEN, MILLION EGGS
2,040
1,988
2,057
2,028
2,181
2012
2,075
1,935
2,099
2,142
2,095
2013
2,112
1,917
2,191
2,234
2,345
2014
2,388
2,068
2,171
2015
2,025
1,940
2016
2,099
2,122
2,356
2,111
2,205
1.7%
-0.9%
4.4%
4.3% 11.9%
% change 14/13
13.1%
7.9%
-0.9%
-9.3% -17.3%
% change 15/14
2.6%
8.5%
4.2% 13.6%
% change 16/15 -12.1%
2,112
4,029
6,220
8,454 10,799
14 cumulative
2,388
4,457
6,628
8,653 10,593
15 cumulative
2,099
4,220
6,577
8,688 10,893
16 cumulative
EDIBLE LIQUID WHOLE EGG PRODUCTION, MILLION POUNDS
134.4
129.0
137.7
127.4
136.3
2012
135.4
128.3
140.9
137.2
131.3
2013
130.3
117.5
136.5
138.0
147.4
2014
150.3
132.1
145.9
2015
123.3
116.9
2016
130.0
130.6
149.1
128.4
131.9
-3.8%
-8.4%
-3.1%
0.6% 12.3%
% change 14/13
15.4% 12.4%
6.9% -10.7% -20.7%
% change 15/14
-1.1%
2.2%
4.2% 12.9%
% change 16/15 -13.5%
130.3
247.8
384.3
522.4
669.8
14 cumulative
150.3
282.4
428.3
551.6
668.4
15 cumulative
130.0
260.7
409.7
538.1
670.0
16 cumulative
EDIBLE LIQUID WHITE PRODUCTION, M ILLION POUNDS
58.0
57.4
57.1
60.7
64.6
2012
56.6
53.5
56.3
62.9
63.8
2013
66.2
60.0
66.8
69.8
71.1
2014
72.4
60.3
59.6
2015
63.6
61.9
2016
62.9
64.4
69.0
65.4
69.9
16.9% 12.1% 18.8% 11.0% 11.5%
% change 14/13
9.3%
0.5% -10.8%
-9.0% -12.9%
% change 15/14
6.9% 15.7%
3.0% 13.0%
% change 16/15 -13.1%
66.2
126.2
193.0
262.8
333.9
14 cumulative
72.4
132.7
192.3
255.8
317.7
15 cumulative
62.9
127.3
196.3
261.7
331.7
16 cumulative
EDIBLE LIQUID YOLK PRODUCTION, MILLION POUNDS
30.1
29.3
29.2
30.2
34.1
2012
29.8
27.0
28.9
31.6
32.6
2013
32.8
30.4
33.9
33.4
34.9
2014
35.3
30.5
29.5
2015
32.5
31.8
2016
33.6
34.5
37.1
34.2
36.9
10.2% 12.6% 17.1%
5.6%
7.1%
% change 14/13
7.6%
0.3% -12.8%
-2.7%
-8.8%
% change 15/14
-5.0% 13.3% 25.7%
5.4% 15.8%
% change 16/15
32.8
63.2
97.1
130.4
165.3
14 cumulative
35.3
65.8
95.3
127.8
159.6
15 cumulative
33.6
68.1
105.2
139.4
176.3
16 cumulative
TOTAL EDIBLE LIQUID PRODUCTION, M ILLION POUNDS
222.5
215.8
224.0
218.4
235.0
2012
221.8
208.7
226.1
231.7
227.7
2013
229.3
207.8
237.2
241.2
253.4
2014
258.0
222.8
235.1
219.3
210.6
2015
2016
226.5
229.5
255.2
228.1
238.6
3.4%
-0.4%
4.9%
4.1% 11.3%
% change 14/13
12.5%
7.2%
-0.9%
-9.1% -16.9%
% change 15/14
3.0%
8.6%
4.0% 13.3%
% change 16/15 -12.2%
229.3
437.2
674.4
915.6 1,169.1
14 cumulative
258.0
480.8
715.9
935.2 1,145.7
15 cumulative
226.5
456.0
711.2
939.3 1,177.9
16 cumulative
DRIED EGG PRODUCTION, MILLION POUNDS
13.7
11.6
10.0
12.5
15.1
2012
13.9
11.1
9.3
13.2
13.1
2013
13.7
11.2
11.2
11.8
12.4
2014
12.9
10.8
9.6
11.8
2015
13.3
2016
13.7
11.8
11.1
12.0
13.9
-1.1%
0.5% 20.9% -10.7%
-5.0%
% change 14/13
-5.8%
-3.5% -14.5%
-0.2%
7.1%
% change 15/14
5.6%
9.6% 15.4%
2.1%
4.8%
% change 16/15
13.7
24.9
36.2
48.0
60.4
14 cumulative
12.9
23.7
33.3
45.1
58.4
15 cumulative
13.7
25.5
36.6
48.6
62.6
16 cumulative
Source: USDA/NASS M onthly Egg Products Report

JUN

JUL

AUG

2,144
2,202
2,351
2,208
2,414
6.8%
-6.1%
9.3%
13,150
12,802
13,307

2,069
2,256
2,382
2,180
2,157
5.6%
-8.5%
-1.1%
15,532
14,981
15,463

2,348
2,232
2,375
2,031
2,439
6.4%
-14.5%
20.1%
17,907
17,012
17,902

Informa forecast in bold.


SEP
OCT
NOV

25,372
25,609
27,146
25,332
26,866
6.0%
-6.7%
6.1%

138.5
146.7
143.2
132.6
145.7
-2.4%
-7.4%
9.8%
813.0
801.0
815.7

135.6
150.5
143.9
147.2
137.3
145.3
141.7
147.6
141.2
143.6
130.9
138.3
141.4
149.0
149.4
155.3
145.6
143.0
130.0
125.0
135.7
131.1
120.4
132.0
128.2
150.2
146.9
135.8
139.7
138.8
-0.2%
0.9%
5.8%
8.1% 11.2%
3.4%
-8.1% -16.1%
-9.2% -15.6% -17.3%
-7.7%
-1.4% 20.1%
8.3%
3.6% 16.1%
5.2%
954.4 1,103.4 1,252.7 1,408.1 1,553.6 1,696.6
931.0 1,056.1 1,191.8 1,322.8 1,443.2 1,575.2
943.9 1,094.1 1,241.0 1,376.8 1,516.6 1,655.4

1,663.1
1,663.1
1,696.6
1,575.2
1,655.4
2.0%
-7.2%
5.1%

62.5
61.0
72.9
70.2
75.1
19.5%
-3.7%
6.9%
406.9
387.9
406.7

56.1
65.1
73.6
66.8
65.3
13.1%
-9.2%
-2.4%
480.5
454.8
472.0

67.4
61.5
71.4
60.5
72.2
16.1%
-15.3%
19.4%
551.9
515.2
544.2

59.3
62.0
72.4
66.4
70.8
16.7%
-8.3%
6.6%
624.3
581.7
615.0

58.5
68.4
69.8
61.0
63.1
2.1%
-12.6%
3.5%
694.1
642.6
678.1

52.3
61.6
61.2
57.3
65.6
-0.6%
-6.4%
14.5%
755.3
699.9
743.7

57.6
57.4
66.4
62.3
63.6
15.8%
-6.3%
2.1%
821.7
762.2
807.2

711.6
730.1
821.7
762.2
807.2
12.6%
-7.2%
5.9%

31.7
31.0
36.3
35.5
39.4
17.1%
-2.3%
11.0%
201.7
195.1
215.7

28.5
32.9
37.3
34.3
34.6
13.2%
-8.0%
0.7%
239.0
229.4
250.3

33.4
30.1
35.2
31.2
38.1
16.8%
-11.2%
22.0%
274.1
260.7
288.3

30.6
30.0
35.1
34.5
37.6
17.2%
-1.9%
9.0%
309.3
295.1
325.9

31.4
34.1
33.5
32.6
34.2
-2.0%
-2.4%
4.9%
342.7
327.8
360.2

26.5
30.7
29.8
30.2
35.4
-2.8%
1.4%
16.9%
372.6
358.0
395.5

28.6
27.6
33.1
32.5
34.0
19.6%
-1.7%
4.5%
405.6
390.5
429.5

363.7
366.4
405.6
390.5
429.5
10.7%
-3.7%
10.0%

232.8
220.2
251.3
233.7
237.2
216.1
231.5
238.8
239.8
239.2
233.2
246.1
223.2
223.3
252.4
252.3
255.6
256.9
258.5
236.6
242.5
238.3
231.1
216.7
236.6
224.7
207.9
226.7
260.2
228.0
260.5
255.3
233.2
240.7
236.3
5.7%
5.2%
6.8% 10.2%
5.0%
6.0%
8.6%
-5.6%
-8.4% -15.2%
-7.9% -13.1% -12.1%
-6.5%
9.2%
-1.4% 20.2%
7.9%
3.8% 15.8%
4.3%
1,421.5 1,673.8 1,929.4 2,186.3 2,444.8 2,681.5 2,924.0
1,384.1 1,615.2 1,832.0 2,068.5 2,293.2 2,501.2 2,727.9
1,438.1 1,666.1 1,926.6 2,181.9 2,415.1 2,655.8 2,892.1

2,738.5
2,759.6
2,924.0
2,727.9
2,892.1
6.0%
-6.7%
6.0%

13.1
15.0
14.3
14.6
14.2
-4.6%
1.7%
-2.4%
89.1
87.3
91.4

15.0
13.6
14.6
13.1
14.3
6.9%
-10.3%
9.7%
103.6
100.3
105.8

11.3
12.5
13.9
12.9
13.0
11.4%
-7.6%
1.2%
117.5
113.2
118.8

2,199
2,264
2,423
2,094
2,167
7.0%
-13.6%
3.5%
22,694
21,301
22,439

12.2
12.2
11.7
11.5
11.5
-4.7%
-1.4%
-0.4%
129.2
124.7
130.2

2,008
2,066
2,191
1,928
2,233
6.1%
-12.0%
15.8%
24,885
23,230
24,671

TOTAL

2,147
2,068
2,261
2,102
2,195
9.3%
-7.0%
4.4%
27,146
25,332
26,866

14.3
12.3
14.3
14.3
14.6
16.5%
-0.4%
2.5%
74.7
72.7
77.2

2,162
2,175
2,364
2,196
2,369
8.7%
-7.1%
7.9%
20,271
19,208
20,271

DEC

11.2
9.2
8.2
9.8
10.4
-10.7%
19.4%
5.6%
137.4
134.5
140.6

11.3
10.1
11.0
11.5
11.3
9.6%
4.1%
-1.7%
148.4
146.0
151.9

151.2
145.5
148.4
146.0
151.9
2.0%
-1.6%
4.0%

Copyright 2015 by Informa Economics, Inc.

Egg Sector Update


EG15-04
May 12, 2015

Page 12

DRIED EGG STOCKS, END OF MONTH, MILLION POUNDS


YEAR
JAN
FEB
M AR
APR
WHOLE EGGS, PLAIN PLUS FREE FLOWING
4.9
4.9
4.1
4.0
2013
3.4
3.4
2.5
2.0
2014
3.3
2.7
2.1
2.3
2015
2016
5.6
5.2
4.2
3.8
-30%
-31%
-38%
-51%
% change 14/13
-5%
-21%
-18%
14%
% change 15/14
71%
95%
100%
68%
% change 16/15
ALBUMEN (PLAIN WHITE)
5.8
5.3
4.2
3.2
2013
2.2
2.1
1.8
1.7
2014
5.8
6.1
5.2
5.1
2015
2016
6.0
5.8
5.2
4.7
-63%
-60%
-57%
-46%
% change 14/13
167%
188%
185%
198%
% change 15/14
3%
-5%
0%
-10%
% change 16/15
YOLK, PLAIN PLUS FREE FLOWING
5.3
5.2
4.5
5.1
2013
7.7
7.7
7.9
8.0
2014
3.4
3.8
2.5
2.1
2015
2016
3.0
3.1
2.8
2.8
43%
48%
76%
55%
% change 14/13
-55%
-50%
-68%
-73%
% change 15/14
-13%
-19%
11%
31%
% change 16/15
Source: USDA/AMS Monthly Dried Egg Report

M AY

JUN

JUL

AUG

DEC

3.5
1.8
2.4
3.7
-49%
36%
58%

3.0
2.5
2.8
4.4
-17%
11%
57%

3.3
4.5
3.4
5.3
34%
-24%
55%

4.5
6.0
3.9
6.1
34%
-35%
56%

4.8
5.9
3.9
6.0
23%
-34%
55%

3.6
5.8
3.5
5.3
59%
-40%
53%

2.2
4.7
2.8
4.3
112%
-40%
51%

2.5
3.6
2.8
4.2
43%
-23%
50%

3.2
1.7
4.5
4.6
-46%
161%
3%

2.9
1.9
3.8
4.7
-35%
99%
25%

3.0
2.7
4.2
5.2
-9%
58%
22%

3.2
3.9
4.7
5.8
20%
23%
23%

3.2
4.5
4.9
6.0
40%
9%
23%

3.0
4.7
4.8
5.9
56%
2%
23%

2.8
5.1
4.6
5.8
82%
-8%
25%

2.4
5.3
4.6
5.7
116%
-13%
24%

5.4
7.8
2.3
2.9
43%
-71%
28%

6.0
7.7
2.6
3.3
28%
-67%
27%

6.8
7.6
2.7
3.4
11%
-65%
28%

6.8
6.3
2.4
3.0
-8%
-62%
27%

8.3
5.4
2.3
2.8
-35%
-58%
24%

9.0
4.9
2.0
2.7
-45%
-59%
30%

8.7
4.1
2.0
2.6
-53%
-50%
28%

7.9
3.7
2.0
2.5
-54%
-45%
25%

FROZEN EGG STOCKS, END OF MONTH, MILLION POUNDS


YEAR
JAN
FEB
M AR
APR
FROZEN EGGS, TOTAL
29.7
28.6
27.1
29.3
2013
34.7
34.6
29.0
27.4
2014
34.7
35.6
32.1
2015
32.4
2016
38.5
38.5
35.0
35.2
17%
21%
7%
-7%
% change 14/13
0%
3%
10%
18%
% change 15/14
11%
8%
9%
9%
% change 16/15
FROZEN EGGS, UNCLASSIFIED
15.7
15.5
15.1
15.3
2013
16.0
16.3
12.6
13.1
2014
17.1
17.1
15.5
2015
15.8
2016
18.9
19.1
17.2
17.7
2%
5%
-16%
-15%
% change 14/13
6%
5%
23%
21%
% change 15/14
11%
12%
11%
12%
% change 16/15
FROZEN EGGS, WHOLE & MIXED
8.3
8.0
6.3
8.6
2013
12.4
12.2
10.4
9.3
2014
11.2
12.8
10.6
2015
10.8
2016
12.9
12.8
11.0
11.2
50%
52%
66%
8%
% change 14/13
-10%
6%
2%
17%
% change 15/14
15%
-1%
4%
3%
% change 16/15
FROZEN EGGS, WHITE
3.2
2.9
3.4
3.1
2013
4.1
4.5
4.1
3.4
2014
4.9
4.2
5.0
2015
4.4
2016
4.5
4.3
4.5
4.1
27%
53%
22%
12%
% change 14/13
20%
-5%
21%
30%
% change 15/14
-8%
0%
-11%
-9%
% change 16/15
FROZEN EGGS, YOLK
2.5
2.2
2.4
2.3
2013
2.2
1.7
1.9
1.6
2014
1.5
1.4
0.9
2015
1.3
2016
2.2
2.3
2.3
2.2
-12%
-23%
-21%
-30%
% change 14/13
-32%
-18%
-50%
-23%
% change 15/14
48%
65%
139%
77%
% change 16/15
Source: USDA/NASS M onthly Cold Storage Report

Informa forecast in bold.


SEP
OCT
NOV

M AY

JUN

JUL

AUG

Informa forecast in bold.


SEP
OCT
NOV

DEC

28.9
28.3
33.9
36.3
-2%
20%
7%

30.6
30.1
36.4
40.1
-1%
21%
10%

26.1
31.5
36.2
39.2
20%
15%
8%

30.1
29.8
35.7
38.4
-1%
20%
7%

33.6
31.1
36.6
39.0
-7%
17%
7%

33.8
32.0
36.7
39.2
-6%
15%
7%

29.8
30.3
33.7
36.4
2%
11%
8%

30.4
30.7
35.4
37.9
1%
15%
7%

15.4
13.4
16.7
18.8
-13%
25%
13%

15.9
14.4
18.7
20.6
-9%
29%
10%

12.6
15.2
17.4
19.3
20%
14%
11%

13.3
13.9
16.6
18.4
4%
20%
11%

14.9
14.8
16.7
18.6
0%
13%
11%

14.8
15.8
16.5
18.3
6%
5%
11%

12.2
14.2
15.6
17.1
16%
10%
10%

13.2
15.5
17.0
18.4
18%
10%
8%

8.1
10.2
11.5
11.6
26%
13%
1%

7.8
10.6
11.7
12.2
36%
10%
4%

8.3
10.6
12.8
13.2
28%
21%
4%

11.5
10.6
13.1
13.4
-8%
24%
3%

11.8
10.4
13.4
13.5
-12%
29%
0%

12.5
10.2
13.8
14.0
-19%
36%
2%

11.6
10.7
12.4
13.1
-8%
16%
6%

11.7
10.1
12.9
13.5
-13%
27%
5%

3.1
3.5
4.2
3.6
13%
22%
-15%

4.1
3.6
4.3
4.6
-13%
20%
7%

3.5
3.9
4.0
4.1
12%
3%
2%

3.7
3.6
4.3
4.5
-2%
18%
5%

5.1
4.1
4.7
4.9
-19%
14%
5%

4.9
4.5
4.7
4.9
-9%
4%
5%

4.1
4.0
3.9
4.2
-2%
-2%
7%

3.5
3.6
3.4
3.7
3%
-5%
9%

2.4
1.3
1.5
2.3
-45%
14%
53%

2.8
1.5
1.7
2.6
-47%
15%
54%

1.7
1.8
2.1
2.5
3%
17%
21%

1.6
1.8
1.8
2.1
7%
1%
19%

1.7
1.8
1.7
2.0
4%
-3%
16%

1.6
1.5
1.7
2.0
-4%
14%
14%

1.8
1.5
1.9
2.1
-20%
27%
12%

2.0
1.5
2.1
2.3
-25%
43%
10%

Copyright 2015 by Informa Economics, Inc.

Egg Sector Update


EG15-04
May 12, 2015

Page 13

US EXPORTS AND IMPORTS OF SHELL EGGS AND EGG PRODUCTS


YEAR
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
M AY
JUN
JUL
TOTAL US EGG EXPORTS, SHELL EGG EQUIVALENT, MILLION EGGS
246
237
272
292
296
303
283
2012
235
258
313
370
455
403
375
2013
321
339
336
348
375
362
373
2014
405
380
408
2015
326
367
338
322
2016
287
295
332
332
370
337
325
36%
31%
7%
-6%
-17%
-10%
0%
% change 14/13
26%
12%
21%
-6%
-2%
-7%
-14%
% change 15/14
-29%
-22%
-18%
2%
1%
0%
1%
% change 16/15
321
660
996
1,344
1,719
2,081
2,454
14 cumulative
405
784
1,192
1,518
1,885
2,222
2,544
15 cumulative
287
582
915
1,247
1,617
1,954
2,279
16 cumulative
US SHELL EGG EXPORTS, M ILLION EGGS
130
114
118
123
144
147
141
2012
134
134
158
223
292
213
211
2013
148
172
171
191
239
191
254
2014
242
241
268
2015
195
237
201
212
2016
164
162
188
189
232
192
205
11%
28%
8%
-14%
-18%
-10%
20%
% change 14/13
63%
40%
57%
2%
-1%
5%
-17%
% change 15/14
-32%
-33%
-30%
-3%
-2%
-4%
-3%
% change 16/15
148
321
491
682
921
1,112
1,367
14 cumulative
242
483
750
946
1,182
1,383
1,595
15 cumulative
164
325
513
702
935
1,127
1,332
16 cumulative
US EGG PRODUCT EXPORTS, SHELL EGG EQUIVALENT, MILLION EGGS
115
124
155
169
152
156
142
2012
102
124
156
147
163
190
164
2013
173
167
166
157
136
170
119
2014
163
139
140
2015
131
130
137
110
2016
124
133
145
143
137
145
121
70%
35%
6%
7%
-16%
-11%
-27%
% change 14/13
-6%
-17%
-16%
-16%
-5%
-20%
-8%
% change 15/14
-24%
-4%
3%
9%
6%
6%
10%
% change 16/15
173
339
505
662
798
968
1,087
14 cumulative
163
301
441
573
702
839
949
15 cumulative
124
257
401
544
682
827
947
16 cumulative
TOTAL US EGG IM PORTS, SHELL EGG EQUIVALENT, M ILLION EGGS
20
25
28
16
17
24
17
2012
18
16
16
20
18
15
16
2013
12
22
21
32
28
38
36
2014
30
25
34
2015
51
47
50
54
2016
33
35
39
44
42
44
46
-35%
43%
34%
59%
56%
148%
129%
% change 14/13
155%
11%
63%
57%
67%
33%
49%
% change 15/14
9%
39%
15%
-13%
-12%
-12%
-14%
% change 16/15
12
34
55
87
116
154
189
14 cumulative
30
55
89
140
187
237
291
15 cumulative
33
68
106
150
192
236
282
16 cumulative
US SHELL EGG IM PORTS, MILLION EGGS
5
3
2
4
4
5
4
2012
4
2
1
4
3
4
3
2013
3
2
3
18
18
16
16
2014
12
9
13
2015
19
19
17
18
2016
11
7
7
17
17
16
16
-24%
3%
119%
322%
449%
325%
454%
% change 14/13
338%
400%
342%
1%
7%
5%
16%
% change 15/14
-9%
-21%
-43%
-8%
-9%
-3%
-11%
% change 16/15
3
4
7
26
43
59
75
14 cumulative
12
21
34
52
71
87
106
15 cumulative
11
18
25
42
59
75
92
16 cumulative
US EGG PRODUCT IM PORTS, SHELL EGG EQUIVALENT, M ILLION EGGS
15
22
26
12
13
20
14
2012
15
14
14
16
15
11
13
2013
9
21
18
14
11
22
20
2014
19
16
21
2015
32
28
34
35
2016
22
28
31
27
24
28
30
-38%
48%
26%
-12%
-28%
91%
57%
% change 14/13
101%
-22%
17%
129%
164%
54%
76%
% change 15/14
20%
73%
50%
-17%
-14%
-16%
-15%
% change 16/15
9
30
48
62
73
94
115
14 cumulative
19
35
56
88
116
150
185
15 cumulative
22
50
81
108
133
161
191
16 cumulative
Source: USDA/ERS M onthly International Trade Statistics

AUG

Informa forecast in bold.


SEP
OCT
NOV

DEC

TOTAL

287
417
398
360
359
-4%
-10%
0%
2,852
2,904
2,638

404
341
406
380
380
19%
-6%
0%
3,259
3,284
3,019

400
377
453
390
387
20%
-14%
-1%
3,711
3,674
3,406

290
470
426
348
359
-9%
-18%
3%
4,137
4,022
3,764

308
445
607
392
399
36%
-35%
2%
4,744
4,415
4,164

3,619
4,459
4,744
4,415
4,164
6.4%
-7.0%
-5.7%

140
247
248
230
223
0%
-7%
-3%
1,614
1,825
1,555

241
233
242
256
247
4%
6%
-3%
1,856
2,081
1,802

217
240
301
260
251
25%
-13%
-4%
2,157
2,342
2,052

148
225
291
227
220
29%
-22%
-3%
2,447
2,569
2,273

196
218
428
273
266
97%
-36%
-2%
2,876
2,842
2,539

1,860
2,527
2,876
2,842
2,539
13.8%
-1.2%
-10.7%

147
170
150
130
136
-12%
-14%
5%
1,238
1,079
1,084

163
108
165
124
133
53%
-25%
7%
1,403
1,203
1,217

183
138
152
129
136
10%
-15%
5%
1,555
1,332
1,353

141
245
135
121
138
-45%
-10%
14%
1,690
1,453
1,492

112
227
179
119
133
-21%
-33%
11%
1,869
1,573
1,625

1,759
1,933
1,869
1,573
1,625
-3.3%
-15.8%
3.3%

19
20
41
52
47
111%
26%
-10%
231
343
330

16
16
47
45
40
197%
-5%
-11%
278
388
370

12
19
48
40
37
148%
-16%
-9%
326
429
407

12
15
39
39
36
161%
0%
-8%
365
468
443

13
14
29
39
34
110%
37%
-14%
394
507
477

221
203
394
507
477
94.4%
28.7%
-6.0%

2
2
13
13
12
472%
6%
-12%
87
119
103

3
3
16
12
12
521%
-23%
-2%
104
132
116

1
3
13
10
9
311%
-20%
-11%
116
142
125

3
3
11
13
12
285%
19%
-3%
127
154
137

3
2
12
14
12
584%
20%
-15%
139
168
149

39
33
139
168
149
319.3%
21.4%
-11.6%

17
17
29
39
36
65%
35%
-9%
143
224
226

13
13
31
33
28
133%
5%
-14%
174
257
254

11
16
35
30
28
117%
-14%
-8%
209
287
282

9
12
29
27
24
133%
-8%
-10%
238
313
306

10
12
17
25
22
43%
48%
-13%
255
339
328

182
170
255
339
328
50.5%
32.7%
-3.2%

Copyright 2015 by Informa Economics, Inc.

Egg Sector Update


EG15-04
May 12, 2015

Page 14

EGG SUPPLIES IN THE US

Informa forecast in bold.


AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
YEAR
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
TABLE EGG-TYPE CONSUMPTION IN THE US, SHELL EGG EQUIVALENT, MILLION EGGS
6,679
6,199
6,809
6,464
6,509
6,210
6,598
6,746
6,426
6,760
6,783
2012
6,896
6,255
7,034
6,655
6,712
6,493
6,723
6,697
6,630
6,991
6,825
2013
6,969
6,267
7,136
6,884
6,995
6,706
6,915
6,950
6,739
7,000
7,023
2014
7,004
6,238
7,194
2015
6,709
6,553
6,076
6,091
6,128
6,021
6,344
6,383
2016
6,337
5,965
6,757
6,514
6,637
6,431
6,744
6,852
6,721
7,091
7,101
1%
0%
1%
3%
4%
3%
3%
4%
2%
0%
3%
% change 14/13
1%
0%
1%
-3%
-6%
-9%
-12%
-12%
-11%
-9%
-9%
% change 15/14
-10%
-4%
-6%
-3%
1%
6%
11%
12%
12%
12%
11%
% change 16/15
6,969 13,236 20,372 27,256 34,251 40,957 47,873 54,822 61,561 68,561 75,584
14 cumulative
7,004 13,242 20,436 27,145 33,698 39,774 45,865 51,993 58,014 64,358 70,742
15 cumulative
6,337 12,302 19,059 25,573 32,209 38,640 45,384 52,236 58,957 66,048 73,149
16 cumulative
SHELL EGG CONSUMPTION IN THE US, M ILLION EGGS
4,747
4,262
4,761
4,542
4,531
4,336
4,625
4,436
4,327
4,631
4,869
2012
4,954
4,370
4,942
4,593
4,740
4,467
4,621
4,709
4,623
4,799
4,885
2013
5,064
4,491
4,995
4,753
4,770
4,564
4,783
4,784
4,537
4,722
4,882
2014
4,810
4,312
4,991
2015
4,781
4,684
3,968
4,057
4,228
3,924
4,326
4,485
2016
4,592
3,917
4,394
4,470
4,552
4,211
4,759
4,566
4,460
4,996
4,911
2%
3%
1%
3%
1%
2%
4%
2%
-2%
-2%
0%
% change 14/13
-5%
-4%
0%
1%
-2%
-13%
-15%
-12%
-14%
-8%
-8%
% change 15/14
-5%
-9%
-12%
-7%
-3%
6%
17%
8%
14%
15%
10%
% change 16/15
5,064
9,555 14,551 19,304 24,074 28,638 33,421 38,205 42,742 47,464 52,346
14 cumulative
4,810
9,121 14,113 18,894 23,578 27,546 31,602 35,831 39,755 44,081 48,566
15 cumulative
4,592
8,509 12,903 17,373 21,925 26,135 30,894 35,461 39,921 44,917 49,828
16 cumulative
EGG PRODUCT CONSUMPTION IN THE US, SHELL EGG EQUIVALENT, MILLION EGGS
1,932
1,938
2,048
1,922
1,978
1,874
1,973
2,310
2,099
2,129
1,914
2012
1,942
1,885
2,091
2,062
1,972
2,027
2,102
1,988
2,007
2,192
1,940
2013
1,905
1,776
2,141
2,131
2,225
2,142
2,132
2,166
2,202
2,278
2,141
2014
2,194
1,927
2,203
2015
1,928
1,869
2,108
2,035
1,899
2,097
2,018
1,898
2016
1,745
2,049
2,362
2,044
2,085
2,220
1,985
2,285
2,260
2,095
2,190
-2%
-6%
2%
3%
13%
6%
1%
9%
10%
4%
10%
% change 14/13
15%
8%
3%
-10%
-16%
-2%
-5%
-12%
-5%
-11%
-11%
% change 15/14
-20%
6%
7%
6%
12%
5%
-2%
20%
8%
4%
15%
% change 16/15
1,905
3,681
5,822
7,952 10,177 12,320 14,452 16,617 18,819 21,097 23,238
14 cumulative
2,194
4,121
6,323
8,251 10,120 12,228 14,263 16,162 18,259 20,278 22,176
15 cumulative
1,745
3,793
6,156
8,200 10,284 12,505 14,490 16,775 19,036 21,131 23,321
16 cumulative
PER CAPITA TABLE EGG-TYPE CONSUMPTION IN THE US, SHELL EGG EQUIVALENT, EGGS
21.3
19.8
21.7
20.6
20.7
19.8
21.0
21.4
20.4
21.4
21.5
2012
21.8
19.8
22.2
21.0
21.2
20.5
21.2
21.1
20.9
22.0
21.5
2013
21.9
19.7
22.4
21.6
21.9
21.0
21.7
21.8
21.1
21.9
21.9
2014
21.9
19.5
22.4
2015
20.9
20.4
18.9
18.9
19.0
18.7
19.7
19.8
2016
19.6
18.5
20.9
20.1
20.5
19.9
20.8
21.1
20.7
21.9
21.9
0%
-1%
1%
3%
3%
3%
2%
3%
1%
-1%
2%
% change 14/13
0%
-1%
0%
-3%
-7%
-10%
-13%
-12%
-11%
-10%
-10%
% change 15/14
-10%
-5%
-7%
-4%
1%
5%
10%
11%
11%
11%
10%
% change 16/15
22
42
64
86
108
129
150
172
193
215
237
14 cumulative
22
41
64
85
105
124
143
162
181
200
220
15 cumulative
20
38
59
79
100
120
140
161
182
204
226
16 cumulative
PER CAPITA SHELL EGG CONSUM PTION IN THE US, EGGS
15.1
13.6
15.2
14.5
14.4
13.8
14.7
14.1
13.7
14.7
15.4
2012
15.7
13.8
15.6
14.5
15.0
14.1
14.6
14.8
14.6
15.1
15.4
2013
15.9
14.1
15.7
14.9
15.0
14.3
15.0
15.0
14.2
14.8
15.3
2014
15.0
13.4
15.6
2015
14.9
14.6
12.3
12.6
13.1
12.2
13.4
13.9
2016
14.2
12.1
13.6
13.8
14.1
13.0
14.7
14.1
13.8
15.4
15.1
1%
2%
0%
3%
0%
1%
3%
1%
-3%
-2%
-1%
% change 14/13
-6%
-5%
-1%
0%
-3%
-14%
-16%
-12%
-14%
-9%
-9%
% change 15/14
-5%
-10%
-13%
-7%
-4%
5%
16%
7%
13%
15%
9%
% change 16/15
16
30
46
61
76
90
105
120
134
149
164
14 cumulative
15
28
44
59
73
86
98
112
124
137
151
15 cumulative
14
26
40
54
68
81
96
110
123
139
154
16 cumulative
PER CAPITA EGG PRODUCT CONSUMPTION IN THE US, SHELL EGG EQUIVALENT, EGGS
6.2
6.2
6.5
6.1
6.3
6.0
6.3
7.3
6.7
6.8
6.1
2012
6.2
6.0
6.6
6.5
6.2
6.4
6.6
6.3
6.3
6.9
6.1
2013
6.0
5.6
6.7
6.7
7.0
6.7
6.7
6.8
6.9
7.1
6.7
2014
6.8
6.0
6.9
2015
6.0
5.8
6.6
6.3
5.9
6.5
6.3
5.9
2016
5.4
6.3
7.3
6.3
6.4
6.9
6.1
7.1
7.0
6.5
6.7
-3%
-6%
2%
3%
12%
5%
1%
8%
9%
3%
10%
% change 14/13
14%
8%
2%
-10%
-17%
-2%
-5%
-13%
-5%
-12%
-12%
% change 15/14
-21%
6%
6%
5%
11%
5%
-3%
19%
7%
3%
15%
% change 16/15
6
12
18
25
32
39
45
52
59
66
73
14 cumulative
7
13
20
26
32
38
44
50
57
63
69
15 cumulative
5
12
19
25
32
39
45
52
59
65
72
16 cumulative
Source: Informa Economics calculations

DEC

TOTAL

6,996
7,016
7,076
6,571
7,315
1%
-7%
11%
82,660
77,312
80,464

79,180
80,927
82,660
77,312
80,464
2.1%
-6.5%
4.1%

4,923
5,138
4,955
4,573
5,234
-4%
-8%
14%
57,301
53,139
55,062

54,990
56,842
57,301
53,139
55,062
0.8%
-7.3%
3.6%

2,073
1,878
2,121
1,998
2,081
13%
-6%
4%
25,359
24,174
25,402

24,190
24,086
25,359
24,174
25,402
5.3%
-4.7%
5.1%

22.2
22.1
22.1
20.4
22.5
0%
-8%
11%
259
240
248

251.8
255.4
259.0
240.5
248.4
1.4%
-7.1%
3.3%

15.6
16.2
15.5
14.2
16.1
-4%
-8%
14%
180
165
170

174.8
179.4
179.5
165.3
170.0
0.1%
-7.9%
2.8%

6.6
5.9
6.6
6.2
6.4
12%
-6%
3%
79
75
78

76.9
76.0
79.4
75.2
78.4
4.5%
-5.4%
4.3%

Copyright 2015 by Informa Economics, Inc.

Egg Sector Update


EG15-04
May 12, 2015

Page 15

Informa Economics Egg Projections


USDA MIDWEST TABLE EGGS, GRADE A, WHITE, LARGE, CENTS/DOZEN
YEAR
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
% change 14/13
% change 15/14
% change 16/15

JAN
FEB MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
111.8
97.0 104.1 102.8
82.1
98.0
118.4 118.3 119.6 103.4 111.0
95.3
118.6 141.5 139.4 152.3 121.7 121.3
116.7 139.0 192.1 133.7 122.0 130.2
135.8 123.4 143.2 121.9 108.8 110.1
0%
-2%
16%

20%
-2%
-11%

17%
38%
-25%

47%
-12%
-9%

10%
0%
-11%

27%
7%
-15%

JUL
AUG
SEP OCT
NOV DEC
111.0 136.8 125.0 119.1 129.6 129.5
110.2 112.3 112.0 112.0 139.8 155.7
127.7 121.5 117.4 122.6 149.8 200.4
141.7 148.8 143.9 144.6 152.4 180.0
120.5 124.7 120.5 121.4 138.5 165.3
16%
11%
-15%

8%
22%
-16%

5%
23%
-16%

9%
18%
-16%

7%
2%
-9%

29%
-10%
-8%

UB NORTHEAST SHELL EGGS, WHITE, LARGE, CENTS/DOZEN


YEAR
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
% change 14/13
% change 15/14
% change 16/15

JAN
FEB MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
113.9 108.4 121.6 107.4
98.0 111.0
134.4 123.4 139.9 110.8 128.5 108.4
134.3 155.1 157.3 156.7 136.0 129.9
131.7 151.3 175.5 127.4 139.9 143.9
149.3 134.1 148.4 123.2 124.8 121.8
0%
-2%
13%

26%
-2%
-11%

13%
12%
-15%

41%
-19%
-3%

6%
3%
-11%

20%
11%
-15%

JUL
AUG
SEP OCT
NOV DEC
131.1 141.5 141.2 127.2 140.9 137.4
121.0 127.6 126.4 127.8 156.1 162.0
143.0 133.8 129.2 134.0 173.2 194.6
158.8 163.2 159.1 159.0 172.8 184.9
135.6 137.1 134.1 134.2 157.1 168.2
18%
11%
-15%

5%
22%
-16%

2%
23%
-16%

5%
19%
-16%

11%
0%
-9%

20%
-5%
-9%

UB MIDWEST SHELL EGGS, WHITE, LARGE, CENTS/DOZEN


YEAR
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
% change 14/13
% change 15/14
% change 16/15

JAN
FEB MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
113.9 107.3 120.2 106.4
96.0 109.0
133.8 122.0 136.0 106.8 125.7 106.2
130.8 155.2 154.6 156.0 135.7 127.9
129.5 149.1 171.1 122.4 137.8 141.4
147.3 132.9 145.0 120.2 123.0 119.6
-2%
-1%
14%

27%
-4%
-11%

14%
11%
-15%

46%
-22%
-2%

8%
2%
-11%

20%
11%
-15%

JUL
AUG
SEP OCT
NOV DEC
130.0 141.7 141.5 127.4 141.8 137.4
121.0 125.5 121.7 124.2 156.5 161.4
143.5 129.4 128.0 134.0 173.9 200.8
158.4 160.3 156.6 157.4 173.0 187.0
135.3 134.4 131.8 132.7 157.4 170.3
19%
10%
-15%

3%
24%
-16%

5%
22%
-16%

8%
17%
-16%

11%
-1%
-9%

24%
-7%
-9%

UB SOUTH CENTRAL SHELL EGGS, WHITE, LARGE, CENTS/DOZEN


YEAR
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
% change 14/13
% change 15/14
% change 16/15

JAN
FEB MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
119.3 112.9 127.4 110.1
99.9 114.4
141.8 128.6 142.8 112.0 132.2 111.8
139.2 164.2 162.0 164.4 142.5 135.9
138.0 159.1 181.5 132.6 143.4 148.0
154.8 140.7 152.8 127.5 128.6 125.8
-2%
-1%
12%

28%
-3%
-12%

13%
12%
-16%

47%
-19%
-4%

8%
1%
-10%

22%
9%
-15%

JUL
AUG
SEP OCT
NOV DEC
136.4 148.6 148.3 135.5 148.8 144.4
128.8 132.3 129.6 132.2 164.9 169.9
152.0 137.7 137.0 143.0 184.9 211.6
166.1 167.8 164.5 165.9 182.0 196.0
142.6 141.4 139.5 140.7 166.0 178.8
18%
9%
-14%

4%
22%
-16%

6%
20%
-15%

8%
16%
-15%

12%
-2%
-9%

25%
-7%
-9%

USDA CENTRAL STATES BREAKING STOCK, >48 LBS, NEST RUN, CENTS/DOZEN
YEAR
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
% change 14/13
% change 15/14
% change 16/15

JAN
FEB MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
50.7
48.1
57.3
50.1
47.5
51.5
70.0
62.6
70.8
59.6
68.9
63.8
64.0
81.4 103.1 109.3 105.1
93.1
55.6
77.1 110.3
90.0
98.3 112.7
81.0
71.8
93.3
84.0
87.7
89.1

JUL
AUG
SEP OCT
NOV DEC
62.7
78.8
89.3
81.0
88.0
74.5
71.5
80.3
80.1
85.9
98.7
91.9
78.5
79.7
87.3
97.2 101.5 101.6
103.1 103.7 110.1 114.1 111.5 104.0
84.7
89.3
95.2
99.6 103.7
97.5

-9%
-13%
46%

10%
31%
-18%

30%
-5%
-7%

46%
7%
-15%

83%
-18%
-7%

53%
-6%
-11%

46%
21%
-21%

-1%
30%
-14%

9%
26%
-14%

13%
17%
-13%

3%
10%
-7%

11%
2%
-6%

May 2015 forward forecast


Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
104.3
94.3 124.3 126.0
118.8 103.2 111.5 135.8
133.2 131.8 122.2 157.6
149.3 128.7 144.8 159.0
134.1 113.6 121.9 141.8
12%
12%
-10%

16%
1%
-11%

16%
7%
-12%

May 2015 forward forecast


Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
114.7 105.4 137.9 135.2
132.5 115.9 125.0 148.7
148.9 140.8 135.3 167.3
152.9 137.1 160.4 172.3
143.9 123.3 135.6 153.2

ANN
123.3
130.5
148.1
155.6
139.0

12%
3%
-6%

28%
-2%
-12%

13%
3%
-11%

13%
5%
-11%

May 2015 forward forecast


Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
113.8 103.8 137.7 135.5
130.6 112.9 122.7 147.4
146.9 139.9 133.6 169.6
149.9 133.9 158.4 172.4
141.7 120.9 133.8 153.5

ANN
122.7
128.4
147.5
153.7
137.5

12%
2%
-5%

21%
-3%
-10%

10%
18%
-16%

ANN
112.2
117.3
136.2
145.4
127.8

15%
2%
-11%

15%
4%
-11%

May 2015 forward forecast


Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
119.9 108.1 144.5 142.9
137.7 118.7 130.2 155.7
155.1 147.6 142.2 179.8
159.5 141.3 166.1 181.3
149.4 127.3 141.2 161.9

ANN
128.8
135.6
156.2
162.1
144.9

13%
3%
-6%

24%
-4%
-10%

8%
18%
-15%

16%
1%
-11%

15%
4%
-11%

May 2015 forward forecast


Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
52.0
49.7
77.0
81.1
67.8
64.1
77.3
92.1
82.8 102.5
81.8 100.1
81.0 100.4 105.6 109.9
82.0
86.9
89.7 100.3

ANN
65.0
75.3
91.8
99.2
89.7

22%
-2%
1%

24%
-4%
-10%

9%
19%
-16%

60%
-2%
-13%

9%
17%
-15%

6%
29%
-15%

9%
10%
-9%

22%
8%
-10%

Copyright 2015 by Informa Economics, Inc.

Egg Sector Update


EG15-04
May 12, 2015

Page 16

Informa Economics Egg Projections


UB LIQUID WHOLE EGGS, NON-PASTEURIZED, CENTS/LB
YEAR
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
% change 14/13
% change 15/14
% change 16/15

JAN
FEB MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
39.6
40.0
52.4
48.1
43.5
45.3
52.4
52.1
63.8
56.6
60.0
64.0
61.8
68.9
83.5
98.2
95.0
87.0
53.3
61.9
74.7
59.2
89.8
83.7
62.6
67.6
70.3
66.6
76.9
73.7

JUL
AUG
SEP OCT
NOV DEC
55.0
67.3
79.9
76.7
79.2
65.6
65.2
76.1
77.5
77.0
77.0
72.5
77.1
75.8
75.3
77.0
79.3
88.6
78.6
87.2
90.5
90.9
91.9
88.7
70.6
77.3
80.3
80.4
81.7
80.3

18%
-14%
17%

18%
2%
-10%

32%
-10%
9%

31%
-11%
-6%

73%
-40%
12%

58%
-5%
-14%

36%
-4%
-12%

0%
15%
-11%

-3%
20%
-11%

0%
18%
-12%

3%
16%
-11%

22%
0%
-9%

UB LIQUID WHOLE EGGS, PASTEURIZED, CENTS/LB


YEAR
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
% change 14/13
% change 15/14
% change 16/15

JAN
FEB MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
45.6
46.0
58.4
54.1
49.5
51.3
58.4
58.1
69.8
62.6
66.0
70.0
65.8
72.9
87.5 102.2
99.0
91.0
57.3
65.9
78.7
63.2
94.0
87.9
66.8
71.8
74.4
70.8
81.2
77.9

JUL
AUG
SEP OCT
NOV DEC
61.0
73.3
85.9
82.7
85.2
71.6
71.2
82.1
82.7
81.7
81.0
76.5
81.1
79.8
79.3
81.0
83.3
92.6
83.2
91.5
94.4
94.6
95.3
92.5
74.9
81.4
84.0
83.9
84.9
83.8

13%
-13%
17%

14%
3%
-10%

25%
-10%
9%

25%
-10%
-5%

63%
-38%
12%

50%
-5%
-14%

30%
-3%
-11%

-3%
15%
-11%

-4%
19%
-11%

-1%
17%
-11%

3%
14%
-11%

21%
0%
-9%

UB LIQUID ALBUMEN, NON-PASTEURIZED, CENTS/LB


YEAR
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
% change 14/13
% change 15/14
% change 16/15

JAN
FEB MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
43.5
42.7
45.8
43.9
41.1
41.0
44.0
49.1
59.6
63.0
67.0
69.0
79.5
92.0 100.5 115.6 121.1 125.6
65.6
60.3
60.1
51.8
79.6
86.2
69.7
66.2
60.4
60.7
72.2
75.8

JUL
AUG
SEP OCT
NOV DEC
44.6
48.5
48.0
48.0
50.9
47.0
70.5
78.1
82.4
87.2
92.7
83.2
126.0 125.4 122.0 112.8 100.2
91.1
83.2
87.2
88.0
87.7
87.3
79.9
75.6
79.1
79.5
78.6
77.5
70.6

81%
-17%
6%

79%
-34%
-9%

87%
-34%
10%

69%
-40%
0%

83%
-55%
17%

81%
-34%
-9%

82%
-31%
-12%

61%
-30%
-9%

48%
-28%
-10%

29%
-22%
-10%

8%
-13%
-11%

9%
-12%
-12%

UB LIQUID ALBUMEN, PASTEURIZED, CENTS/LB


YEAR
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
% change 14/13
% change 15/14
% change 16/15

JAN
FEB MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
48.5
47.7
50.8
48.9
46.1
46.0
49.0
54.1
64.6
68.0
72.0
74.0
84.5
97.0 105.5 120.6 126.1 130.6
70.6
65.3
65.3
57.8
85.6
92.2
74.6
71.1
65.3
66.0
77.6
81.3

JUL
AUG
SEP OCT
NOV DEC
49.6
53.5
53.0
53.0
55.9
52.0
75.5
83.1
87.4
92.2
97.7
88.2
131.0 130.4 127.0 117.8 105.2
96.1
89.2
93.1
94.0
92.6
92.0
84.7
81.1
84.5
84.9
83.5
82.4
75.4

72%
-16%
6%

74%
-32%
-9%

79%
-33%
9%

63%
-38%
0%

77%
-52%
14%

75%
-32%
-9%

76%
-29%
-12%

57%
-29%
-9%

45%
-26%
-10%

28%
-21%
-10%

8%
-13%
-10%

9%
-12%
-11%

UB LIQUID YOLK, NON-PASTEURIZED, CENTS/LB


YEAR
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
% change 14/13
% change 15/14
% change 16/15

JAN
FEB MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
65.3
65.1
69.6
68.0
66.0
66.0
95.0
84.9
80.0
76.7
75.9
76.5
61.0
57.9
56.8
64.7
65.0
65.0
72.0
73.7
83.2
87.0
99.0
94.1
72.4
70.0
72.7
76.1
80.4
78.7

JUL
AUG
SEP OCT
NOV DEC
76.0
99.7 120.8 131.2 128.4 107.7
76.0
76.0
76.0
70.9
63.3
63.0
64.6
65.0
65.0
65.0
65.3
71.5
85.7
81.3
85.1
85.4
82.5
80.9
76.1
76.5
79.7
79.7
77.0
76.8

-36%
18%
1%

-15%
33%
-11%

-32%
27%
-5%

-29%
46%
-13%

-16%
34%
-13%

-14%
52%
-19%

-15%
45%
-16%

-14%
25%
-6%

-14%
31%
-6%

-8%
31%
-7%

3%
26%
-7%

13%
13%
-5%

May 2015 forward forecast


Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
44.0
45.6
67.4
73.8
56.1
60.2
72.9
75.5
71.4
93.4
76.1
81.6
63.3
77.6
85.5
90.5
66.8
72.4
76.1
80.8
27%
-11%
6%

8%
11%
-11%

22%
-2%
-7%

May 2015 forward forecast


Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
50.0
51.6
73.4
79.8
62.1
66.2
78.7
79.7
75.4
97.4
80.1
85.6
67.3
81.7
89.7
94.1
71.0
76.6
80.1
84.2

ANN
63.7
71.7
84.6
83.2
78.0

21%
-11%
5%

55%
-17%
-7%

7%
10%
-11%

18%
-2%
-6%

May 2015 forward forecast


Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
44.0
42.0
47.0
48.6
50.9
66.3
77.0
87.7
90.7 120.8 124.5 101.4
62.0
72.6
86.1
84.9
65.4
69.5
78.1
75.6

ANN
45.4
70.5
109.3
76.4
72.1

78%
-32%
6%

47%
-16%
-6%

4%
12%
-11%

ANN
57.7
66.2
80.6
79.2
74.0

16%
-16%
-11%

55%
-30%
-6%

May 2015 forward forecast


Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
49.0
47.0
52.0
53.6
55.9
71.3
82.0
92.7
95.7 125.8 129.5 106.4
67.1
78.6
92.1
89.8
70.3
75.0
83.5
80.5

ANN
50.4
75.5
114.3
81.9
77.3

71%
-30%
5%

82%
-40%
-4%

2%
12%
-11%

15%
-16%
-10%

51%
-28%
-6%

May 2015 forward forecast


Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
66.7
66.7
98.8 122.4
86.6
76.4
76.0
65.7
58.6
64.9
64.9
67.3
76.3
93.4
84.0
82.9
71.7
78.4
77.4
77.8

ANN
88.7
76.2
63.9
84.2
76.3

-32%
30%
-6%

76%
-38%
-5%

62%
-31%
-9%

-15%
44%
-16%

58%
-29%
-9%

-15%
30%
-8%

2%
23%
-6%

-16%
32%
-9%

Copyright 2015 by Informa Economics, Inc.

Egg Sector Update


EG15-04
May 12, 2015

Page 17

Informa Economics Egg Projections


UB LIQUID YOLK, PASTEURIZED, CENTS/LB
YEAR
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
% change 14/13
% change 15/14
% change 16/15

JAN
FEB MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
68.3
68.1
72.6
71.0
69.0
69.0
98.0
87.9
83.0
79.7
78.9
79.5
64.0
60.9
59.8
67.7
68.0
68.0
75.0
76.7
86.2
90.0 102.0
97.2
75.4
73.0
75.7
79.1
83.4
81.7

JUL
AUG
SEP OCT
NOV DEC
79.0 102.7 123.8 134.2 131.4 110.7
79.0
79.0
79.0
73.9
66.3
66.0
67.6
68.0
68.0
68.0
68.3
74.5
88.6
84.3
88.1
88.4
85.5
83.9
79.0
79.5
82.7
82.7
80.0
79.8

-35%
17%
1%

-14%
31%
-11%

-31%
26%
-5%

-28%
44%
-12%

-15%
33%
-12%

-14%
50%
-18%

-14%
43%
-16%

-14%
24%
-6%

-14%
30%
-6%

-8%
30%
-6%

3%
25%
-6%

13%
13%
-5%

UB FROZEN WHOLE EGG, CENTS/LB


YEAR
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
% change 14/13
% change 15/14
% change 16/15

JAN
FEB MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
65.5
64.0
72.3
74.2
70.1
70.3
70.8
70.0
77.1
74.4
77.8
83.0
82.3
87.3 100.0 117.3 118.3 117.5
71.3
77.9
89.0
74.0 109.5 111.3
93.1
86.5
86.7
85.8
99.1 100.8

JUL
AUG
SEP OCT
NOV DEC
75.2
86.9 100.7 101.6 100.5
85.7
83.8
93.7
96.0
96.0
96.0
92.0
111.0 110.8 106.9 104.3 103.0 103.5
110.6 118.7 122.1 121.5 120.5 114.1
99.5 106.1 108.4 107.6 106.7 101.8

16%
-13%
31%

32%
0%
-10%

25%
-11%
11%

30%
-11%
-3%

58%
-37%
16%

52%
-7%
-9%

42%
-5%
-9%

18%
7%
-11%

11%
14%
-11%

9%
17%
-11%

7%
17%
-11%

13%
10%
-11%

UB FROZEN EGG WHITES, CENTS/LB


YEAR
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
% change 14/13
% change 15/14
% change 16/15

JAN
FEB MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
69.3
68.0
68.0
66.3
64.1
64.0
64.0
67.2
74.2
79.6
84.0
88.0
107.5 112.8 119.7 134.6 139.7 144.9
87.2
82.9
77.8
69.1 106.5 109.7
93.9
84.0
75.1
76.1
90.4
93.3

JUL
AUG
SEP OCT
NOV DEC
64.8
67.0
67.0
67.0
68.7
67.7
89.7
94.8
96.0 102.0 110.0 109.0
145.0 144.4 143.0 137.4 125.5 113.1
111.0 113.5 113.5 114.0 108.9
99.3
94.2
96.3
96.2
96.5
94.2
88.0

68%
-19%
8%

62%
-23%
-15%

68%
-27%
1%

61%
-35%
-3%

69%
-49%
10%

66%
-24%
-15%

65%
-24%
-15%

52%
-21%
-15%

49%
-21%
-15%

35%
-17%
-15%

14%
-13%
-14%

4%
-12%
-11%

UB FROZEN SUGARED YOLKS, CENTS/LB


YEAR
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
% change 14/13
% change 15/14
% change 16/15

JAN
FEB MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
86.2
86.0
86.8
87.4
87.0
87.0
114.4 105.9 102.3
94.9
93.4
93.0
82.7
79.7
77.8
82.7
83.0
83.0
88.0
89.5
99.0 103.0 118.2 128.1
96.4
94.3
91.6
93.4
98.9 102.6

JUL
AUG
SEP OCT
NOV DEC
93.0 118.5 138.1 147.5 146.3 128.4
93.0
93.0
93.0
90.5
85.0
84.0
83.0
83.0
83.0
83.0
83.2
87.6
119.4 110.1 103.9 104.9 102.9 100.7
99.8
98.5
97.9
98.5
96.7
95.6

-28%
6%
10%

-11%
44%
-16%

-25%
12%
5%

-24%
27%
-7%

-13%
25%
-9%

-11%
42%
-16%

-11%
54%
-20%

-11%
33%
-11%

-11%
25%
-6%

-8%
26%
-6%

-2%
24%
-6%

4%
15%
-5%

UB FROZEN SALTED YOLKS, CENTS/LB


YEAR
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
% change 14/13
% change 15/14
% change 16/15

JAN
FEB MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
83.2
83.0
83.8
84.4
84.0
84.0
111.4 102.9
99.3
91.9
90.4
90.0
79.7
76.7
74.8
79.7
80.0
80.0
85.0
86.5
96.0 100.0 115.0 124.9
93.2
91.1
88.4
90.2
95.6
99.3

JUL
AUG
SEP OCT
NOV DEC
90.0 115.5 135.1 144.5 143.3 125.4
90.0
90.0
90.0
87.5
82.0
81.0
80.0
80.0
80.0
80.0
80.2
84.6
116.2 106.8 100.7 101.6
99.6
97.4
96.5
95.2
94.5
95.2
93.3
92.3

-28%
7%
10%

-11%
45%
-17%

-25%
13%
5%

-25%
28%
-8%

-13%
25%
-10%

-12%
44%
-17%

-11%
56%
-20%

-11%
34%
-11%

-11%
26%
-6%

-9%
27%
-6%

-2%
24%
-6%

4%
15%
-5%

May 2015 forward forecast


Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
69.7
69.7 101.8 125.4
89.6
79.4
79.0
68.7
61.6
67.9
67.9
70.3
79.3
96.4
87.0
86.0
74.7
81.4
80.4
80.9
-31%
29%
-6%

2%
22%
-6%

-16%
30%
-9%

May 2015 forward forecast


Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
67.3
71.5
87.6
95.9
72.6
78.4
91.2
94.7
89.9 117.7 109.6 103.6
79.4
98.3 117.1 118.7
88.8
95.2 104.6 105.4

ANN
80.6
84.2
105.2
103.4
98.5

24%
-12%
12%

-14%
42%
-16%

9%
15%
-11%

25%
-2%
-5%

May 2015 forward forecast


Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
68.4
64.8
66.3
67.8
68.5
83.9
93.5 107.0
113.3 139.7 144.1 125.3
82.6
95.1 112.7 107.4
84.3
86.6
95.6
92.9

ANN
66.8
88.2
130.6
99.5
89.8

66%
-27%
2%

50%
-17%
-3%

-14%
28%
-8%

ANN
91.7
79.2
66.9
87.2
79.3

17%
-14%
-14%

48%
-24%
-10%

May 2015 forward forecast


Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
86.3
87.1 116.5 140.7
107.5
93.8
93.0
86.5
80.1
82.9
83.0
84.6
92.2 116.4 111.1 102.8
94.1
98.3
98.7
96.9

ANN
107.7
95.2
82.6
105.6
97.0

-26%
15%
2%

67%
-32%
-9%

20%
7%
-11%

-2%
22%
-6%

-13%
28%
-8%

May 2015 forward forecast


Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
83.3
84.1 113.5 137.7
104.5
90.8
90.0
83.5
77.1
79.9
80.0
81.6
89.2 113.3 107.9
99.6
90.9
95.0
95.4
93.6

ANN
104.7
92.2
79.6
102.5
93.7

-26%
16%
2%

-12%
40%
-16%

54%
-22%
-15%

-12%
42%
-16%

-11%
34%
-11%

-11%
35%
-12%

-2%
22%
-6%

-14%
29%
-9%

Copyright 2015 by Informa Economics, Inc.

Egg Sector Update


EG15-04
May 12, 2015

Page 18

Informa Economics Egg Projections


UB DRIED WHOLE EGGS, CENTS/LB
YEAR
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
% change 14/13
% change 15/14
% change 16/15

JAN
FEB MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
233.6 230.0 243.5 251.2 245.0 245.0
278.5 269.0 271.5 269.3 277.8 285.0
288.9 298.3 336.4 390.0 397.0 400.0
339.3 325.0 325.0 310.7 410.1 413.9
360.2 344.8 307.6 317.6 358.0 361.9
4%
17%
6%

11%
9%
6%

24%
-3%
-5%

45%
-20%
2%

43%
3%
-13%

40%
3%
-13%

JUL
AUG
SEP OCT
NOV DEC
258.2 299.6 335.9 360.0 360.0 324.0
287.0 317.0 330.0 330.0 325.3 313.1
400.0 392.9 385.0 385.0 385.0 380.3
398.4 396.2 402.5 408.9 406.9 387.6
358.2 367.4 374.9 380.3 378.4 362.7
39%
0%
-10%

24%
1%
-7%

17%
5%
-7%

17%
6%
-7%

18%
6%
-7%

21%
2%
-6%

UB DRIED BLENDS, 65%-75% WHOLE, CENTS/LB


YEAR
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
% change 14/13
% change 15/14
% change 16/15

JAN
FEB MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
202.1 200.0 200.0 200.0 200.0 204.3
232.8 232.0 232.0 232.0 238.0 240.0
255.0 255.0 261.0 294.3 298.5 300.0
300.0 300.0 300.0 291.4 336.9 334.6
313.5 293.0 274.9 281.8 301.8 302.4
10%
18%
5%

10%
18%
-2%

13%
15%
-8%

27%
-1%
-3%

25%
13%
-10%

25%
12%
-10%

JUL
AUG
SEP OCT
NOV DEC
211.7 237.2 265.1 280.0 280.0 258.6
240.0 259.8 270.0 269.6 265.0 263.1
300.0 300.0 300.0 300.0 300.0 300.0
342.3 343.7 336.8 340.7 338.7 331.0
306.3 314.8 318.2 321.6 319.7 313.6
25%
14%
-11%

15%
15%
-8%

11%
12%
-6%

11%
14%
-6%

13%
13%
-6%

14%
10%
-5%

UB DRIED ALBUMEN, CENTS/LB


YEAR
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
% change 14/13
% change 15/14
% change 16/15

JAN
FEB MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP OCT
NOV DEC
449.3 445.0 447.3 450.0 446.5 445.0 455.0 488.5 505.0 510.0 510.0 492.5
469.1 465.5 511.0 550.7 608.0 652.5 689.5 731.8 761.8 792.6 828.4 827.9
830.5 883.5 990.0 1162.4 1321.4 1444.0 1465.0 1436.0 1371.7 1292.0 1198.1 1106.0
932.6 808.3 780.5 744.3 804.7 853.1 859.0 848.9 829.8 775.3 715.2 683.2
633.3 600.1 567.0 590.4 645.6 688.9 702.6 707.4 699.1 675.6 648.3 621.0
77%
12%
-32%

90%
-9%
-26%

94%
-21%
-27%

111%
-36%
-21%

117%
-39%
-20%

121%
-41%
-19%

112%
-41%
-18%

96%
-41%
-17%

80%
-40%
-16%

63%
-40%
-13%

45%
-40%
-9%

34%
-38%
-9%

UB DRIED YOLKS, CENTS/LB


YEAR
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
% change 14/13
% change 15/14
% change 16/15

JAN
FEB MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
170.2 170.0 171.0 173.0 173.0 173.0
260.2 238.6 225.8 210.4 196.8 195.0
159.5 148.5 148.2 152.6 153.0 153.0
178.2 180.5 203.0 210.0 233.8 263.2
234.4 216.0 201.4 202.7 208.6 218.9

JUL
AUG
SEP OCT
NOV DEC
186.6 244.0 299.1 320.0 324.8 298.3
195.0 195.0 195.0 187.5 167.7 165.0
153.0 150.3 150.0 150.8 154.6 170.9
256.6 254.1 251.8 254.2 250.4 250.9
217.8 221.3 225.6 227.3 223.7 227.7

-39%
12%
32%

-22%
68%
-15%

-38%
22%
20%

-34%
37%
-1%

-27%
38%
-3%

-22%
53%
-11%

-22%
72%
-17%

-23%
69%
-13%

-23%
68%
-10%

-20%
69%
-11%

-8%
62%
-11%

4%
47%
-9%

UB LIQUID WHOLE EGGS, PORTABLE CONTAINERS, CENTS/DOZEN


YEAR
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
% change 14/13
% change 15/14
% change 16/15

JAN
FEB MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
63.5
62.0
70.3
72.2
68.1
68.3
68.8
68.0
75.1
72.4
75.1
80.0
79.3
84.3
96.4 113.3 114.3 113.5
68.3
74.9
86.0
71.0 115.2 111.9
80.5
83.9
84.0
82.9
99.3
99.0

JUL
AUG
SEP OCT
NOV DEC
73.2
84.9
98.7
99.6
98.5
83.7
80.8
90.7
93.0
93.0
93.0
89.0
107.0 106.8 102.9 101.0 100.0 100.5
106.2 114.2 117.6 117.5 116.5 110.2
95.9 102.5 104.8 104.3 103.6
98.7

15%
-14%
18%

32%
-1%
-10%

24%
-11%
12%

28%
-11%
-2%

56%
-37%
17%

52%
1%
-14%

42%
-1%
-12%

18%
7%
-10%

11%
14%
-11%

9%
16%
-11%

8%
17%
-11%

13%
10%
-10%

May 2015 forward forecast


Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
235.7 247.1 297.9 348.0
273.0 277.4 311.3 322.8
307.9 395.7 392.6 383.4
329.8 378.2 399.0 401.1
337.6 345.8 366.8 373.8
13%
7%
2%

19%
5%
-7%

25%
2%
-6%

May 2015 forward forecast


Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
200.7 201.4 238.0 272.9
232.3 236.7 256.6 265.9
257.0 297.6 300.0 300.0
300.0 321.0 340.9 336.8
293.8 295.4 313.1 318.3

ANN
228.3
247.9
288.7
324.7
305.1

11%
17%
-2%

43%
-4%
-9%

13%
12%
-6%

16%
12%
-6%

May 2015 forward forecast


Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
447.2 447.2 482.8 504.2
481.9 603.7 727.7 816.3
901.3 1309.3 1424.2 1198.7
840.5 800.7 845.9 724.6
600.1 641.6 703.0 648.3

ANN
470.3
657.4
1208.4
802.9
648.3

87%
-7%
-29%

26%
8%
-8%

26%
2%
-8%

ANN
282.2
296.1
369.9
377.0
356.0

47%
-40%
-11%

84%
-34%
-19%

May 2015 forward forecast


Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
170.4 173.0 243.2 314.4
241.5 200.7 195.0 173.4
152.1 152.9 151.1 158.8
187.2 235.6 254.2 251.8
217.3 210.1 221.6 226.2

ANN
225.3
202.7
153.7
232.2
218.8

-37%
23%
16%

117%
-39%
-20%

17%
14%
-8%

-8%
59%
-10%

-24%
51%
-6%

May 2015 forward forecast


Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
65.3
69.5
85.6
93.9
70.6
75.8
88.2
91.7
86.7 113.7 105.6 100.5
76.4
99.4 112.7 114.7
82.8
93.7 101.1 102.2

ANN
78.6
81.6
101.6
100.8
95.0

23%
-12%
8%

-24%
54%
-11%

96%
-41%
-17%

50%
-13%
-6%

-23%
68%
-13%

20%
7%
-10%

10%
14%
-11%

Copyright 2015 by Informa Economics, Inc.

25%
-1%
-6%

Egg Sector Update


EG15-04
May 12, 2015

Page 19

Informa Economics Egg Projections


UB LIQUID SUGARED YOLKS, PORTABLE CONTAINERS, CENTS/LB
YEAR
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
% change 14/13
% change 15/14
% change 16/15

JAN
FEB MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
84.2
84.0
84.8
85.4
85.0
85.0
111.4 102.9
99.3
91.9
90.4
90.0
79.7
76.1
73.8
78.7
79.0
79.0
84.0
85.5
95.0
99.0 115.0 109.9
88.4
86.0
88.2
90.0
95.9
93.9

JUL
AUG
SEP OCT
NOV DEC
90.8 115.5 135.1 144.5 143.3 125.4
90.0
90.0
90.0
87.5
82.0
81.0
79.0
79.0
79.0
79.0
79.2
83.6
101.2
96.7 100.5 101.5
99.6
97.4
91.1
91.5
94.6
95.3
93.5
92.4

-28%
5%
5%

-12%
28%
-10%

-26%
12%
1%

-26%
29%
-7%

-14%
26%
-9%

-13%
46%
-17%

-12%
39%
-15%

-12%
22%
-5%

-12%
27%
-6%

-10%
28%
-6%

-3%
26%
-6%

3%
16%
-5%

UB LIQUID SALTED YOLKS, PORTABLE CONTAINERS, CENTS/LB


YEAR
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
% change 14/13
% change 15/14
% change 16/15

JAN
FEB MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
81.2
81.0
81.8
82.4
82.0
82.0
108.4
99.9
96.3
88.9
87.4
87.0
76.7
73.1
70.8
75.7
76.0
76.0
81.0
82.5
92.0
96.0 111.6 106.5
85.5
83.2
85.4
87.2
92.9
90.9

JUL
AUG
SEP OCT
NOV DEC
87.8 112.5 132.1 141.5 140.3 122.4
87.0
87.0
87.0
84.5
79.0
78.0
76.0
76.0
76.0
76.0
76.2
80.6
97.7
93.2
97.0
98.0
96.1
93.9
88.0
88.4
91.5
92.2
90.4
89.4

-29%
6%
6%

-13%
29%
-10%

-27%
13%
1%

-26%
30%
-7%

-15%
27%
-9%

-13%
47%
-17%

-13%
40%
-15%

-13%
23%
-5%

-13%
28%
-6%

-10%
29%
-6%

-4%
26%
-6%

3%
17%
-5%

UB NATIONAL BREAKING STOCK, 48-50 LBS, NEST RUN, CENTS/DOZEN


YEAR
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
% change 14/13
% change 15/14
% change 16/15

JAN
FEB MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
50.0
48.0
57.1
50.8
48.0
51.6
63.1
63.6
70.8
59.4
70.9
65.6
64.4
84.4 105.5 109.4 105.5
92.2
56.1
78.2
93.6
66.9
99.1 112.7
79.6
73.3
87.7
75.4
88.6
89.3

JUL
AUG
SEP OCT
NOV DEC
64.3
79.0
89.3
81.1
88.0
72.9
73.0
80.7
80.3
82.9
99.3
89.0
78.3
80.5
88.0
97.4 100.5
98.5
103.8 104.1 109.6 112.9 111.4 101.2
85.4
89.8
95.2
98.5 103.4
94.8

2%
-13%
42%

7%
33%
-18%

33%
-7%
-6%

49%
-11%
-6%

84%
-39%
13%

49%
-6%
-11%

41%
22%
-21%

0%
29%
-14%

10%
25%
-13%

17%
16%
-13%

1%
11%
-7%

11%
3%
-6%

UB MIDWEST SHELL EGGS, WHITE, MEDIUM, CENTS/DOZEN


YEAR
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
% change 14/13
% change 15/14
% change 16/15

JAN
FEB MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
95.7
87.4
98.1
91.8
82.3
82.9
110.8
99.9 111.7
96.3 109.5
93.7
119.8 127.3 136.8 137.0 125.0 115.2
118.0 134.0 135.3
96.5 123.3 123.3
134.0 113.7 120.3 102.4 110.6 104.7
8%
-2%
14%

27%
5%
-15%

22%
-1%
-11%

42%
-30%
6%

14%
-1%
-10%

23%
7%
-15%

JUL
AUG
SEP OCT
NOV DEC
99.7 101.5 120.3 107.8 120.3 115.4
92.6 106.8 101.8 110.0 120.6 126.6
106.1 102.8 106.5 122.0 132.6 142.2
123.2 128.5 133.5 141.0 136.6 141.5
103.8 108.0 111.9 119.1 124.0 129.1
15%
16%
-16%

-4%
25%
-16%

5%
25%
-16%

11%
16%
-16%

10%
3%
-9%

12%
0%
-9%

UB NORTHWEST SHELL EGGS, WHITE, MEDIUM, CENTS/DOZEN


YEAR
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
% change 14/13
% change 15/14
% change 16/15

JAN
FEB MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
110.2 101.2 113.5 107.8
98.4
98.0
120.1 108.6 121.8 105.3 119.1 103.3
131.8 141.0 152.0 151.4 139.0 128.5
131.7 145.4 147.7 111.5 139.1 137.9
146.2 125.2 133.2 115.8 124.4 117.7
10%
0%
11%

30%
3%
-14%

25%
-3%
-10%

44%
-26%
4%

17%
0%
-11%

24%
7%
-15%

JUL
AUG
SEP OCT
NOV DEC
113.8 115.5 133.6 121.4 133.4 127.2
100.7 114.2 111.7 119.4 128.8 132.7
117.4 114.0 117.0 132.0 142.3 153.3
136.0 140.7 146.0 153.6 148.6 153.4
115.1 118.9 123.0 130.2 134.5 139.4
17%
16%
-15%

0%
23%
-16%

5%
25%
-16%

11%
16%
-15%

10%
4%
-9%

16%
0%
-9%

May 2015 forward forecast


Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
84.3
85.1 113.8 137.7
104.5
90.8
90.0
83.5
76.5
78.9
79.0
80.6
88.2 108.0
99.4
99.5
87.6
93.3
92.4
93.7
-27%
15%
-1%

-3%
23%
-6%

-15%
25%
-7%

May 2015 forward forecast


Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
81.3
82.1 110.8 134.7
101.5
87.8
87.0
80.5
73.5
75.9
76.0
77.6
85.2 104.7
96.0
96.0
84.7
90.3
89.3
90.7

ANN
102.3
89.2
75.8
95.5
88.7

-28%
16%
-1%

-13%
37%
-14%

-4%
24%
-6%

-15%
26%
-7%

May 2015 forward forecast


Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
51.7
50.1
77.5
80.7
65.8
65.3
78.0
90.4
84.8 102.4
82.3
98.8
76.0
92.9 105.8 108.5
80.2
84.4
90.1
98.9

ANN
65.0
74.9
92.1
95.8
88.4

29%
-10%
6%

-14%
38%
-14%

-12%
26%
-7%

ANN
105.3
92.2
78.8
98.8
91.7

9%
10%
-9%

23%
4%
-8%

May 2015 forward forecast


Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
93.7
85.7 107.2 114.5
107.5
99.8 100.4 119.1
128.0 125.7 105.1 132.3
129.1 114.4 128.4 139.7
122.7 105.9 107.9 124.0

ANN
100.3
106.7
122.8
127.9
115.1

19%
1%
-5%

57%
-9%
-9%

-13%
26%
-7%

11%
6%
-11%

15%
4%
-10%

May 2015 forward forecast


Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
108.3 101.4 121.0 127.3
116.8 109.2 108.9 127.0
141.6 139.7 116.1 142.5
141.6 129.5 140.9 151.8
134.9 119.3 119.0 134.7

ANN
114.5
115.5
135.0
141.0
127.0

21%
0%
-5%

26%
-9%
-7%

5%
29%
-15%

28%
-7%
-8%

5%
22%
-16%

7%
21%
-16%

12%
7%
-11%

17%
4%
-10%

Copyright 2015 by Informa Economics, Inc.

Egg Sector Update


EG15-04
May 12, 2015

Page 20

Copyright 2015 by Informa Economics, Inc.

Egg Sector Update


EG15-04
May 12, 2015

Page 21

Copyright 2015 by Informa Economics, Inc.

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