Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Study
Part 1 - Review of Risk Assessment
Methodologies and Development of a
Draft Risk Assessment Methodology
for Christchurch
Report No. U04 / 108 : Final
Prepared by
P. Brabhaharan, Robert Davey,
Francis ORiley, and Leonard Wiles
Reviewed by
Report No
Date:
Reference:
Status:
SPT 2004 / 28
August 2005
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Final
Dr David Prentice
Disclaimer
Opus has used the best available information in preparing this report and has interpreted this information
exercising all reasonable skill and care. Nevertheless, neither Environment Canterbury nor Opus accepts any
liability, whether direct, indirect or consequential, arising out of the provision of information in this report.
All rights reserved. This publication may not be reproduced or copied in any form without the permission of
Environment Canterbury (the client). Such permission is to be given only in accordance with the terms of the
clients contract with Opus. This copyright extends to all forms of copying and any storage of materials in any
kind of information retrieval system. The copyright for the data, maps, figures, and tables contained in this report
is held by Opus.
Opus International Consultants Limited 2005
Contents
Introduction...........................................................................................................................................1
Literature Review.................................................................................................................................7
4.1 Scope of Review ..........................................................................................................................7
4.2 General Earthquake Risk Assessment .....................................................................................7
4.3 Earthquake Hazards.................................................................................................................13
4.4 Damage and Loss Modelling ..................................................................................................15
4.5 Earthquake Risk Studies Undertaken for Christchurch and Canterbury.........................24
4.6 Summary of Literature Review...............................................................................................25
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Conclusions .........................................................................................................................................58
Recommendations..............................................................................................................................60
10
Bibliography .......................................................................................................................................63
List of Appendices
Appendix A
Appendix B
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Executive Summary
Environment Canterbury (ECan) needs to know the likely impact and consequences of a
major earthquake on Christchurch, to fulfil its hazard mitigation and emergency
management functions. Opus International Consultants Limited (Opus) was
commissioned by ECan to review risk assessment methodologies and develop a draft risk
assessment methodology for Christchurch.
A comprehensive review of literature relating to earthquake risk assessment has been
completed. Key features of significant relevant literature are presented.
Sources of asset data for the study have been explored by contacting the relevant Councils
and organisations. This indicates that the information required for the risk assessment is
generally available. The inventory would be collected from a variety of organisations, and
would include information on critical facilities.
There is good hazard information available from previous research and studies. Some
additional microzoning information would need to be derived, including a map showing
ground class to modify ground shaking, liquefaction ground damage hazards for the
earthquake scenarios, and slope hazards for the Port Hills. These can be incorporated into
the risk assessment. The tsunami risk could be considered in a separate study.
A spatial approach should be used for the risk assessment using a geographical
information system (GIS) platform, and the results of the study be presented as maps and
accompanying tables and charts, so that the information can be readily used by
stakeholders.
A methodology has been developed to undertake an earthquake risk assessment for
Christchurch. The approach has been based on generating risk information that meets the
objectives of Environment Canterbury and provides a basis for organisations to undertake
risk management actions.
It is proposed that the risk assessment be carried out for four earthquake scenarios, rather
than using probabilistic uniform hazard levels. This would provide information most
suitable for emergency management and meeting functionality requirements for lifelines.
Risk assessment has considerable uncertainty and loss estimates could be derived using
probability distributions so that the uncertainty is explicitly presented. The risk assessed
should focus on direct losses. The socio-economic consequences may be considered later in
follow-on studies.
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Introduction
Environment Canterbury (ECan) needs to know the likely impact and consequences of a
major earthquake on Christchurch, to fulfil its hazard mitigation and emergency
management functions. ECan considers that the earthquake hazard information currently
available is generally of a standard and scale suitable for an earthquake risk assessment.
The Resource Management Act 1991 (RMA) and more recently the Civil Defence
Emergency Management Act 2002 require local authorities to identify, assess and mitigate
the effects of natural hazards and other technological hazards. An assessment of the risk
from earthquakes to Christchurch will assist with the management of the risk, through
reduction, readiness, response and recovery planning.
Opus International Consultants Limited (Opus) has been commissioned by ECan to review
risk assessment methodologies and develop a draft risk assessment methodology for
Christchurch as part of the Earthquake Risk Assessment Study: Part 1.
This report presents the results of this study, and recommends a methodology for use in
carrying out a risk assessment for Christchurch.
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Scope of Study
The scope of the study required by ECan comprises the following steps:
1.
2.
Review in detail the available literature on (any) specific earthquake risk assessments
carried out for Canterbury and/or Christchurch, and methodologies and approaches
developed in New Zealand and internationally for assessing earthquake risk.
This review will include:
(a) A description of the approach used to complete the literature review.
(b) A full bibliographic reference for each report, paper, map or other publication
reviewed.
(c) Details of where each report, paper, map or other publication can be obtained.
(d) A detailed summary of the relevant details of each report, paper, map or
publication.
(e) A discussion on the implications of the literature review findings for the
development of an earthquake risk assessment model for Christchurch.
3.
Investigate the source, availability and nature of building (residential, industrial and
commercial), engineering lifeline infrastructure (water supply, telecommunications,
electricity distribution and roading only) and demographic information for
Christchurch, and provide a summary of the information in the report.
4.
Investigate the source, availability and nature of earthquake hazard information for
Canterbury and Christchurch, and provide a summary of the information in the
report.
5.
Identify (if appropriate), the need for, and nature of, any additional earthquake hazard
information and/or investigations for the purpose of better assessing the earthquake
risk in Christchurch.
6.
Based on the literature review findings and the nature of the existing earthquake
hazard information available for Canterbury and Christchurch, and the existing
available building, engineering lifeline infrastructure and demographic information,
develop a draft risk assessment methodology for Christchurch.
ECan required that this study include the lifelines of water supply, telecommunications,
electricity distribution and roading only. However, this may be extended to include other
key lifelines in the city such as wastewater, ports and rail infrastructure.
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3.1
Objectives
Risk may be defined as the chance of something happening that will have an impact upon
objectives. It is measured in terms of consequences and likelihood [AS/NZS 4360:2004].
The objective of an earthquake risk assessment is to quantify the potential damages and
losses due to future earthquakes (the consequences) and their probabilities of occurrence in
a given period (the likelihood).
3.2
Risk Assessment
The basic steps in an earthquake risk assessment are:
Hazard Analysis:
Loss Estimation :
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Socio-economic Consequences
The social and economic consequences of earthquake damage are also important.
However, the assessment of the social and economic effects is more complex and there isnt
a well defined process to assess these outcomes. Usually these have been assessed as a
multiplier of the direct losses to indicate an order of magnitude of such losses.
A number of researchers have considered the economic impact of earthquakes (Cochrane,
1995). More research is continuing to assess such effects. For example, Gordon et al (1997)
outlined a framework for assessing the total economic impact from the effect of
earthquakes on transportation (bridges only considered), using input/output models.
They included changes in traffic demand after the earthquake. However, the practical use
of this model for risk assessment of a road network was not demonstrated (Brabhaharan et
al, 2001). The Multi-disciplinary Center for Earthquake Engineering Research (MCEER) in
the USA has an objective to develop a model for assessing the economic effects of damage
to transportation networks.
Research into the social impacts of earthquakes is currently being carried out by Opus
International Consultants, under a 4 year research programme.
It would be prudent to consider assessment of the socio economic effects of earthquakes as
a future extension of the earthquake risk assessment.
3.4
Outcomes
The primary outcomes of a risk study are summaries and maps highlighting the spatial
distribution of damage and casualties. A typical summary for an asset would include an
overall damage rating, the number of casualties, the number of people affected by the
damage, timeframe for basic reinstatement and likely repair costs.
Key assets covered by the summaries include:
Commercial, industrial and residential buildings;
Critical facilities including hospitals, police stations and fire stations;
Lifelines, including:
substations,
Water assets including reservoirs, pump stations and key water mains.
telephone
For lifelines, the consequential effects (such as availability / disruption to road users)
would also be assessed.
Maps are used to highlight the spatial distribution of damage to assets.
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Applications
The outcomes from a risk assessment study have many applications.
Such applications may include:
Consider the impact of earthquakes and development of appropriate policy on
earthquake risk reduction initiatives (for example Earthquake Risk Buildings Policy
development);
Earthquake risk reduction initiatives through a detailed understanding of the extent
and distribution of damage, critical elements and redundancies;
Prioritisation and justification for founding of earthquake risk, based on a detailed
understanding of the damage and consequences;
Understand and act on the interdependencies and relationships between various
lifelines and emergency response and recovery;
Emergency response planning by the Civil Defence Emergency Management Groups
and Civil Defence Personnel;
Understand the post-earthquake recovery resources requirements based on the
understanding of the extent of damage to buildings and other infrastructure (including
lifelines). Such a study was carried out for the Wellington Region and the results were
published in a number of papers presented in Wellington After the Quake The
Challenge of Rebuilding Cities (Earthquake Commission, 1995).
An earthquake risk assessment for the Greater Wellington Area was undertaken by Works
Consultancy Services (1995) for the Wellington Regional Council. This study has been
used extensively in the understanding of the risks to the region, earthquake risk policy
development, and planning for emergency preparedness. As illustrated above, it has also
provided the basis for understanding the resource requirements for recovery after large
events.
An application of comprehensive assessment of the risk to lifelines, is the risk assessment
of key roads in the Wellington City Road network and development of risk management
strategy undertaken by Opus International Consultants for Wellington City Council
(Brabhaharan, 2004), and this has provided the framework for prioritising, funding and
implementation of key vulnerable roads in the Wellington City, starting with Ngaio Gorge
Road.
This illustrates the usefulness of the results of earthquake risk assessment studies for
earthquake preparedness planning and for developing strategies to minimise the risk from
earthquakes.
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Literature Review
4.1
Scope of Review
A review has been undertaken of New Zealand and international literature on earthquake
risk assessment and of specific earthquake risk assessments carried out for Canterbury or
Christchurch. This literature review has involved:
1.
A review and collation of earthquake hazard and risk reports held by ECan;
2.
3.
4.
Search of relevant information for the study was carried out Opus Information Centre,
which has access to a variety of databases and search facilities which allowed it to search a
variety of papers and reports in journals, conference proceedings, research publications
and studies.
The seminal paper Engineering seismic risk analysis by Cornell [1986], set the scene for
the considerable advances that have been made in earthquake risk assessment over the
past two decades. Many thousands of papers and other publications have been published
on the subject since that time. This review has therefore been limited to those publications
that are particularly relevant to a regional earthquake risk assessment as proposed for
Christchurch.
The review is structured as follows:
4.2
Earthquake Hazards.
This report describes the development of a geographic information system (GIS) based
methodology for a regional seismic hazard and risk analysis, and illustrates this with a case
study. It is particularly useful as it provides a good framework for a GIS based risk
assessment.
A flow chart of the basic procedure that was developed for this risk assessment is shown in
Figure 2.
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Seismicity
Motion-damage (fragility)
Repair cost
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The GIS mapping process for the seismic risk analysis is illustrated in Figure 3.
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Quantitative estimates of losses in terms of direct costs for repair and replacement of
damaged buildings and lifeline system components; direct costs associated with loss of
function (e.g., loss of business revenue, relocation costs); casualties; people displaced
from residences; quantity of debris; and regional economic impacts.
Extent of induced hazards in terms of fire ignitions and fire spread, exposed population
and building value due to potential flooding and locations of hazardous materials.
Databases containing information used as default (built-in) data that are useable in the
calculation of losses.
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4. Ground Motion
4. Ground Failure
Direct Physical
Damage
5. General
Building
Stock
6. Essential and
High Potential
Loss Facilities
7. LifelinesTransportation
Systems
8. LifelinesUtility
Systems
Induced Physical
Damage
9. Inundation
Direct Economic/
Social Losses
13. Casualities
14. Shelter
15. Economic
16. Indirect
Economic
Losses
Most of the models that form the basis of the HAZUS methodology are documented in
detail in the HAZUS Technical Manual, which is freely available from the FEMA website
(http://www.fema.gov/hazus). These models can therefore be adopted and adapted for
use in other methodologies. The GIS based HAZUS software is also freely available, but it
can only be used for the geographical regions that the software has been customised for,
i.e. the US and a few other countries. The HAZUS software has not been customised for
New Zealand.
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Select the area to be studied. This may be a city, a county or a group of municipalities.
It is generally desirable to select an area that is under the jurisdiction of an existing
regional planning group.
Specify the magnitude and location of the scenario earthquake. In developing the
scenario earthquake, consideration should be given to the potential fault locations.
An estimate of the number of ignitions and the extent of fire spread is computed. The
amount and type of debris is estimated. If an inundation map is provided, exposure to
flooding can also be estimated.
The user plays a major role in selecting the scope and nature of the output of a loss
estimation study. A variety of maps can be generated for visualising the extent of the
losses. Numerical results may be examined at the level of the census tract (equivalent to
statistical area unit / mesh block in New Zealand) or may be aggregated by county or
region.
McGuire, RK (2004). Seismic Hazard and Risk Analysis.
McGuire is one of the pioneers of seismic risk analysis, and his monograph provides a
general introduction to methods of seismic hazard and risk analysis. He pays particular
attention to one of the most important aspects of seismic risk analysis, that is, how to deal
with the associated large uncertainties. There are two types of uncertainty:
1.
2.
Epistemic (or knowledge) uncertainty: the uncertainty that stems from lack of knowledge
about some model or parameter. This type of uncertainty can be reduced (at least
conceptually) by additional data. Examples include maximum magnitude for a source,
median value of ground motion given the source properties, median damage state for
a class of buildings given the ground motion.
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Earthquake Hazards
4.3.1
General Approaches
Area sources are geographical areas within which an earthquake of a given magnitude
is equally likely to occur at any time or location, where the local geological features
that cause the earthquakes have not been identified.
2.
Fault sources are usually individual faults where the tectonic and geological features
causing earthquakes have been identified.
4.3.2
Active fault and historic earthquake data for New Zealand are available in the following
databases.
Environment Canterbury Active Faults Database
http://www.ecan.govt.nz/EcanGIS/ecanpro/viewer.htm
The Environment Canterbury database keeps an up to date record of the active faults in the
Canterbury Region.
Active Faults Database of New Zealand.
http://www.gns.cri.nz/store/databases/indexb.html#Faults
The Active Faults Database of New Zealand is maintained by the Institute of Geological
and Nuclear Sciences. It has been designed to hold all data collected from investigations of
active faults. Along with the locations of active faults, the Active Faults Database contains
the results from field measurements of offset features, trenching, and dating. It also stores
interpretation of these results in the form of the fault recurrence interval, slip rate, single
event displacement and date of last movement.
National Earthquake Information Database
http://www.gns.cri.nz/store/databases/indexb.html#Earthquake
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General
Rojahn, C and Sharpe, R L (1985). Earthquake Damage Evaluation Data for California, ATC-13.
In the mid-1980s, the US Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) undertook a
comprehensive programme to estimate the economic impacts of a major California
earthquake. This included estimates of damages to all types of facilities, the associated
losses and casualties. Because the required earthquake damage and loss data were not
available in the literature, FEMA and Applied Technology Council (ATC) agreed that the
best way to develop the required data was to draw on the experience and judgement of
seasoned earthquake engineers. Accordingly a panel of senior level specialists in
earthquake engineering was established to develop consensus damage and loss estimates.
The expert panel estimated the probability of damage to a range of structure types. The
standard damage descriptions used and the associated damage factors are shown in
Table 1. The damage factor (also commonly known as damage ratio) is the ratio of the cost
of repairing the damage to cost of replacing the structure.
Table 1 - ATC-13 Damage States and Damage Factors (Rojahn and Sharpe, 1985)
The outputs of the ATC-13 study included damage probability matrices, an example of
which is shown in Table 2. By using such matrices, it is possible to estimate the probability
of a structure being in a particular damage state for a given MMI ground shaking intensity,
and to estimate the expected dollar loss by multiplying the damage factors for the structure
by the estimated replacement value.
Estimates were also made of the repair times for given damage states, and number of
casualties for given damage states and occupancy rates.
The data produced by this project remains the most comprehensive source of damage data,
and form the basis of many subsequent loss studies and methodologies.
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HAZUS
Figure 5 provides an example of building fragility curves for the four damage states used
in the HAZUS methodology. These have been derived by analysing the earthquake
response of model building types.
Descriptions of structural and non-structural damage states are provided for all of the
model building types in HAZUS. Examples for one building type (reinforced concrete
moment resisting frames) are given below :
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Slight Structural Damage : Flexural or shear type hairline cracks in some beams and
columns near joints or within joints.
Moderate Structural Damage : Most beams and columns exhibit hairline cracks. In
ductile frames some of the frame elements have reached yield capacity indicated by
larger flexural cracks and some concrete spalling. Non-ductile frames may exhibit
larger shear cracks and spalling.
Extensive Structural Damage : Some of the frame elements have reached their ultimate
capacity indicated in ductile frames by large flexural cracks, spalled concrete and
buckled main reinforcement; non-ductile frame elements may have suffered shear
failures or bond failures at reinforcement splices, or broken ties or buckled main
reinforcement in columns which may result in partial collapse.
Figure 5 - Example HAZUS Fragility Curves for Reinforced Concrete Framed Buildings
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2.
monetary losses due to building damage (i.e. cost of repairing or replacing damaged
buildings and their contents);
3.
monetary losses resulting from building damage and closure (e.g., losses due to
business interruption);
4.
5.
The building damage predictions may also be used to study expected damage patterns in a
given region for different scenario earthquakes (e.g., to identify the most vulnerable
building types, or the areas expected to have the most damaged buildings).
Dowrick, et al. Various
Dowrick and his colleagues have analysed insurance claim records for the 1931 Hawkes
Bay, 1942 Wairarapa, 1986 Inangahua and 1987 Edgecumbe earthquakes in New Zealand.
They have used the data to calculate the damage ratio as a function of MM intensity for a
range of building types and ground conditions. The damage ratio is the cost of damage to
a building divided by the replacement value of the building.
The data from these studies are very important as they provide the most robust empirically
derived information from New Zealand data, as opposed to expert opinion (eg ATC-13) or
theoretically (eg HAZUS) derived damage or loss models. However, the range of building
types covered by the data is limited.
Works Consultancy Services (1995). Earthquake Risk Assessment Studies
Opus International Consultants (Works Consultancy Services, 1995) assessed the damage
and losses to buildings in the Wellington Region, and estimated deaths and injuries, for
selected earthquake scenarios. The methodology that was developed for the studies was in
accordance with the state-of-the-art of the time including the forerunner of HAZUS (NIBS,
1994).
The geographic models for the studies were built up from Valuation Roll Number areas.
The analyses were done with spreadsheets, not GIS.
The building damage models were specifically developed for New Zealand construction
types, based on data from Dowrick, ATC-13 and other sources. The number of buildings,
their floor areas and construction types were supplied by Quotable Value (QV) New
Zealand (Valuation New Zealand). Replacement costs were calculated from construction
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Expected damage to critical facilities (hospitals, police stations, fire stations, CDHQ).
Number of casualties.
The results of these studies have been used extensively, and in particular for earthquake
preparedness planning.
One limitation with the methodology used is that it produced nominally mean estimates
of damage and losses, with only a general indication given of the likely variation from the
mean in any particular event due to uncertainty.
EQC Minerva Model
The Earthquake Commission (EQC) had a computer model developed, to allow it to
predict and plan for insurance losses for the portfolio of assets covered by the EQC scheme.
The EQC model is known as Minerva, and combines a geographical information system,
a hazard model and a dynamic financial analysis model (Middleton, 2002). An outline of
the insurance loss model is given by Shephard et al (2002). The model uses an approach
similar to that shown on Figure 1, and uses the Quotable Value Database, EQC Building
Costs Database and an Aon Soils Database. The earthquake loss system derives losses
based on earthquake sources, a variety of attenuation models, and building damage
vulnerability models (comprising loss tables for different building types and earthquake
intensities and statistical distribution of loss). It should be noted that this primarily covers
residential buildings in New Zealand which are covered by EQC.
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Lifelines Studies
Lifelines studies have been carried out in a number of cities and regions in New Zealand
starting with Wellington, to consider the potential for damage to lifelines in earthquakes
and other hazards, and understand the interdependencies. These studies were carried out
at a high level to understand the potential damage to lifelines largely based on the expert
judgement of engineering professionals, based on their knowledge.
These include studies for :
Auckland
Hawkes Bay
Invercargill
These studies nevertheless provided the impetus for further assessment of the risk from
earthquakes and other natural hazards, and implementation of mitigation measures.
4.4.4
Water Supply
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Telecommunications Networks
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Road Networks
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This together with a component damage probability matrix (earthquake damaged road link
capacity and the associated probability of damage states for different earthquake
intensities) was used to derive total cost of earthquake damage. This was then compared
with the retrofit cost for that component.
Werner et al (1997) proposed seismic risk analysis of a highway system to estimate the loss
from earthquakes. The use of GIS was suggested, with the following four modules :
Component module with structural, functionality and loss / repair cost data.
Socio-economic module with loss, emergency response and societal effects data.
They demonstrated this model using a simplified deterministic analysis for four
earthquake scenarios (considering only the ground shaking effects) for a section of the road
network in Memphis, Tennessee, USA, and considering only bridges on the road network.
MINUTP traffic forecasting software was used to assess traffic impact. Only direct losses
(repair cost) and traffic disruption costs were considered.
Gordon et al (1997) outlined a framework for assessing the total economic impact from the
effect of earthquakes on transportation (bridges only considered), using input/output
models. They included the change in traffic demand after the earthquake.
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The analyses took into consideration the probabilities of various intensities of each hazard.
In this instance, earthquake and storm hazards were the dominant hazards, and
consequent liquefaction, slope failure, erosion and flooding were also considered.
Dalziell et al (1999) carried out a study of the hazards affecting the road network in the
Central North Island of New Zealand. They considered the state highway network in the
area, and assessed the risk to the Desert Road section of State Highway 1. Computer aided
traffic analysis using a SATURN model was used to consider the impact on traffic using
the road network. The study included consideration of volcanic eruption, earthquakes,
snow and ice as well as traffic accidents.
Brabhaharan et al (2001) developed a GIS based approach for the assessment of the risk to
road networks and a systematic approach for the management of the risk. This was further
developed by Brabhaharan & Moynihan (2002) who presented methods of implementation
of risk management in the New Zealand context. This approach has been successfully
applied to assess the risk to road networks in New Zealand (Brabhaharan, 2002 and 2004).
In particular, the application to the Wellington Road Network has enabled the
development of systematic risk management and implementation.
The approach developed by Brabhaharan et al (2001) would be a useful approach for
assessing the risk to the road network, as it covers the risk to the whole road network, and
the results are readily suited to further assessment of risk management.
4.5
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Inventory Data
5.1
General Approach
Research into potential sources, availability and nature of data for buildings, engineering
lifeline assets and demographic information has been carried out for the Christchurch area.
ECan limited the lifeline infrastructure investigations to water, roads, electricity and
telecommunications. Other assets such as the rail network, ports and wastewater
infrastructure were not investigated but could be included in the earthquake risk study.
The research was undertaken by contacting infrastructure managers at the Christchurch
City Council (CCC), utility and telecommunications companies. Discussions were also
held with people responsible for maintaining and updating information at these
organisations.
The information available is predominantly stored in databases, GIS systems, asset
management plans and seismic investigation reports. Details of these are included in the
sections below.
Another key source of information is the engineering lifelines study for Christchurch that
was undertaken in the mid nineties. The results are summarised in the publication Risks
and Realities (Centre for Advanced Engineering, 1997). This study represents a major
collation of lifeline information that was provided by various organisations in a form
suitable for risk assessments.
5.2
Buildings
The CCC and commercial organisations such as Quotable Value (QV) hold information on
properties and buildings. The council databases have been populated with information
from:
Up until 1998, the Government Valuation Department undertook property valuations and
maintained detailed records of property information. However since the enactment of the
Rating Valuations Act 1998, responsibility for property valuations was transferred to local
councils and detailed land and building data held by the Government Valuation
Department was transferred to the local councils.
Information is generally available at property level or mesh block level. Mesh blocks are
predefined areas that contain information for all properties within the mesh block
boundaries. The number of properties within a mesh block can vary from a few up to
hundreds of properties. The mesh blocks for Christchurch are shown in Appendix A.
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Residential/commercial/industrial classification;
Property use (residential, office, hotel, retail, mixed, storage, education etc);
Numbers of properties;
The three important factors for classifying the earthquake performance of buildings are:
building structure,
age, and
number of storeys.
The age and number of storeys can be readily obtained from commercial or council
databases, however the building structure classification (i.e. unreinforced masonry, steel
frame, concrete frame) is not generally held on any database. The wall material
classification and age of the building can be used to infer the likely building structure with
reasonable accuracy. A small random sample of commercial properties could be inspected
to verify the validity of the assumptions.
CCC has a register of earthquake risk buildings. The data is stored on a GIS system that is
used to prepare LIM reports. The council could supply a spreadsheet file with a property
identifier.
Information on seismic upgrades to commercial buildings is not available on the Council
databases. Seismic strengthening of earthquake prone buildings will generally improve
the structural performance of a building in a seismic event, above the level assessed based
on the building classification only.
Access to the CCC database is typically for in-house staff only, and much of the data and
GIS information is not available in the public domain. Release of data for the ECan
earthquake risk study may require approval by a number of people at the CCC and
conditions of use may apply to data that is deemed potentially sensitive in the public
domain.
ECan and CCC work closely together on many related projects and regularly exchange
information from their databases. Therefore ECan would need to play an active role in
assisting the risk study group with obtaining data from CCC through database searches
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Roads
5.3.1
Local Roads
The road network model can be developed from one of the following two sources:
Topovector data;
RAMM database.
Use of Topovector data requires a software licence. The Topovector data would allow the
entire road network in the Christchurch City to be modelled in GIS. The geometry is based
on 1:50,000 topographic maps. However, the attributes associated with the data are limited
and include such characteristics as the number of road lanes and whether the surface is
sealed or unsealed.
RAMM data could be sourced from the CCC. The RAMM data has a mapping layer that
can be exported into other GIS systems. The RAMM data contains all attributes that
characterise the road including surface width, seal type, traffic volumes and maintenance
history.
The RAMM data has several advantages over the Topovector data. One advantage is that
the results from the analysis, in the form of GIS layers, can be returned to the council for its
own use at a later date, and would be consistent with the data already held by the Council.
Another advantage is that the RAMM data contains more attributes that describe the road
itself enabling a more robust risk assessment
The RAMM database does not hold any information on bridges, retaining walls and
culverts. The majority of data and maintenance history for these structures are in hardcopy
format.
Studies into seismic vulnerabilities of bridges have been completed by CCC and would be
made available to the risk study group. The detail to which this study has been carried out
is not known at this stage. Bridge and retaining wall drawings and specifications would
also be available to allow the risk study group to briefly assess and classify the seismic
performance if required.
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State Highways
State highways 1, 73, 74 and 75 pass through the Christchurch city area. The highways are
owned and maintained by Transit New Zealand (Transit).
The RAMM database is used to store information on the highway network.
attributes can be exported into a GIS system with RAMM mapping software.
Road
Bridge information is held on a separate database. For Transit, Opus has carried out a
seismic screening of the state highway bridges in the Christchurch area and the results of
this study would be available for the Christchurch risk study.
5.4
5.5
Telecommunications Assets
Telecom New Zealand Ltd (Telecom) and Telstra Clear Ltd (TelstraClear) have
communication networks in Christchurch.
Vodafone and Telecom also operate
independent cellular phone networks.
5.5.1
Telecom
Telecom uses Small World GIS software to store information on their network assets.
Telecoms main assets are exchange buildings, underground communication cables and
cell phone towers.
Telecom has a policy of not releasing drawings showing the complete underground cable
network as this information is commercially sensitive. Telecom has released incomplete or
disjointed information for previous lifelines studies. Most of the drawings were provided
in a CAD format and prepared by in-house Telecom draughtsmen. It may be more difficult
to obtain the same quality of information for this risk study as Telecom no longer have the
in-house drafting capability to provide such services.
Small World GIS compatibility software is available to convert layers and attribute data
into appropriate formats for use in other GIS systems. However the ability to provide
incomplete or disjointed cable network information from a GIS system may be difficult.
Another alternative would be to trace printed outputs from the Small World GIS system
using CAD. The CAD layer could then be imported into the GIS model for Christchurch.
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TelstraClear
The majority of the TelstraClear network has been installed over the last ten years. The
majority of communications equipment is likely to be restrained with seismic restraints and
exchange buildings designed to modern standards.
Information on the TelstraClear network is stored on a GIS system. TelstraClear have
indicated they would be willing to provide information with a lifelines confidentiality
agreement. Exchange buildings, cabinets and major underground cable routes would be
able to be incorporated into a GIS model.
TelstraClear have also provided a summary document of a recent civil defence exercise that
includes information on major cable routes, exchange buildings, vulnerabilities and links to
other providers such as Vodafone and BCL.
5.5.3
Vodafone
Vodafones main assets include cellular towers and small exchange buildings. The
majority of the Vodafone network has been installed over the last ten to fifteen years, so
most of the network has be designed to modern seismic standards.
The tower structures are not susceptible to seismic loading. However the tower
foundations will be susceptible to earthquake induced ground settlement and landslides.
Underground fibre optic cables are also prone to damage from earthquake settlement.
Vodafone exchange buildings are generally small single storey buildings with
communication cabinets. Most cabinets are generally secured by seismic restraints that are
designed to the latest earthquake standards.
5.6
Electricity Assets
Orion NZ Ltd (Orion) owns and operates the local supply network in the Christchurch
region.
Orion receives power via the national grid, which is owned and operated by Transpower
NZ Ltd (Transpower).
5.6.1
National Grid
Transpowers asset information is available in a form that can be imported into a GIS
platform.
Transpowers main assets are substations, transmission lines and
communication towers.
Transpower has undertaken seismic mitigation work at their substations over the last
fifteen years. There are four substations located within the Christchurch city area. The
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Orions main assets are district substations and supply cables. The substations have
switching cabinets housed in buildings and switchyards that contain high voltage
equipment such as circuit breakers and transformers. The electricity cables throughout the
city are a mixture of overhead lines and underground cables.
Orion has a GIS system that holds information on the electricity network.
A copy of the 2005 asset management plan is available on the Orion website. The asset
management plan has a section on risk management that summarises the following topics:
Orion has provided a summary of reports relating to recent seismic investigation work (a
selection of which are listed below). The reports would be made available to the risk study
group.
Dallington 66kV Cable Liquefaction Hazard at the Avon River Crossing, 1998;
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Demographic Information
Demographic information is available from the Statistics New Zealand 2001 Census data.
Information that will be useful in a risk analysis study includes:
The census data can be grouped into appropriate land areas such as the statistical area unit
or mesh block. The mesh block is the smallest unit of area for which population data is
available.
5.8
5.9
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6.1
Introduction
The source, availability and nature of earthquake hazard information have been reviewed,
to assess the appropriateness for use in the earthquake risk study.
A comprehensive list of earthquake hazard information held by ECan was collated and
relevant publications have been obtained and used in this review. Other literature of
earthquake hazard in Christchurch has also been sourced and reviewed.
6.2
Ground Shaking
The Earthquake Hazard in Christchurch (Elder et al, 1991) presented a detailed evaluation of
the earthquake hazards in Christchurch, and contributed to a significant advance in the
knowledge of the earthquake hazards in the city. It considered earthquake fault sources, a
prediction of the intensity of ground shaking (with associated probabilities and recurrence
intervals) and spectra. In addition, it also considered the influence of the geology of the
area, the potential for amplification of shaking, liquefaction susceptibility and earthquake
induced slope failures. It also presented some generic comments on the potential damage
to buildings and infrastructure. However, this did not provide a formal assessment of the
risk.
Natural Hazards in Canterbury (Canterbury Regional Council, 1994) summarised natural
hazards affecting Canterbury. A section of the report presented the seismic hazards
including historical earthquakes, the faults systems capable of causing earthquakes and a
summary of the outcomes of seismic hazards assessments.
Risks & Realities, a report of the Christchurch Engineering Lifelines Group (Centre for
Advanced Engineering, 1997) presents a multi-disciplinary approach to the vulnerability of
lifelines to natural hazards. This comprehensive report only provides a summary of the
earthquake hazards affecting Christchurch.
The report notes that the likelihood of surface fault rupture in Christchurch is remote given
that there are few geological indications of surface fault traces. Faults close to Christchurch
are postulated to be capable of maximum magnitudes of 6.6, whereas faults in the foothills
region can give magnitude 7.5 earthquakes, and the more distant Alpine Fault can give
magnitude 8 to 8.5 earthquakes.
It discusses three potential sources of earthquakes:
1.
2.
3.
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Earthquake
Name
Magnitude
1869
Christchurch
5?
1870
5.5 ?
MM Intensity
recorded in
Christchurch
7-8
6-7
1881
Castle Hill
6.0 ?
Cass ?
5-6
1888
North
Canterbury
7 7.3
5-7
1901
Cheviot
Ms 6.9
Parnassus
1922
Motunau
Ms 6.4
Motunau / Scargill
6-7
1929
Arthurs Pass
Ms 7.01
1929
Buller
Ms 7.8
1994
Arthurs Pass
ML 6.7
5-6
Arthurs Pass
3-6
The report suggests that amplification by about 1 MM unit occurred in Christchurch city in
five of these earthquakes in the 1881 Castle Hill, 1888 North Canterbury, 1922 Motunau,
1929 Arthurs Pass, and 1929 Buller earthquakes.
The probabilistic seismic hazard analysis carried out as part of that study gives contour
maps of peak ground accelerations on average soil sites (Class B) for the Canterbury
Region, for return periods of 50 years, 150 years, 475 years and 1000 years. Similar maps
for 0.2 s and 1 s spectral accelerations are also included. The peak ground acceleration
maps have also been converted into MM intensity maps using an empirical relationship.
Tabulated values are also provided for the main towns, and the values for Christchurch are
reproduced in Table 4.
Deaggregation plots showing the contribution of various earthquake sources to the ground
shaking in Christchurch, for annual frequency of exceedance of 0.8g (0.2 s spectral
acceleration) and 0.1g (2 s spectral acceleration) are presented in the report. The 0.2 s
spectral acceleration is dominated by local M 5 to 6 earthquakes or to some extent by
foothills earthquakes of M 7 to 7.2 at distances less than 40 km.
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Return Period
50 years
150 years
475 years
1000 years
PGA
0.17
0.25
0.37
0.47
0.2 s SA
0.37
0.61
0.97
1.27
0.5 s SA
0.24
0.35
0.49
0.60
1 s SA
0.09
0.16
0.19
0.24
2 s SA
< 0.05
0.08
0.12
0.17
MM I
7.5
7.99
8.52
8.82
Alpine Fault
earthquake
Local earthquake
Magnitude /
distance
M 8 at 75 km to 150 km
MM Intensity
7, possibly 8
7 to 8
Duration
5 s to 10 s
30 s
60 s or more
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment of New Zealand : New Active Fault Data, Seismicity
Data, Attenuation Relationships and Methods (Institute of Geological & Nuclear Sciences,
2000) presents the results of a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for the
whole of New Zealand. This national study gives somewhat lower levels of peak ground
accelerations than from the Canterbury study (IGNS, 1999).
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Figure 6 - Deaggregation Plot, PGA, for 475 year Recurrence Interval, Christchurch
(Institute of Geological & Nuclear Sciences, 2000)
Figure 7 - Deaggregation Plot, PGA, for 1000 year Recurrence Interval, Christchurch
(Institute of Geological & Nuclear Sciences, 2000)
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Figure 8 - Deaggregation Plot, 1s SA, for 475 year Recurrence Interval, Christchurch
(Institute of Geological & Nuclear Sciences, 2000)
Figure 9 - Deaggregation Plot, 1 s SA, for 1000 year Recurrence Interval, Christchurch
(Institute of Geological & Nuclear Sciences, 2000)
Environment Canterbury Active Faults Database Manual (Environment Canterbury, 2004)
summarises how ECan has compiled and holds information on the active faults in the
Canterbury Region. The information includes the location, activity, slip rates, recurrence
intervals, rupture length and displacement and potential magnitude of the earthquake that
could be caused by its rupture.
6.2.2
Liquefaction Hazard
Guilhem and Berrill (1993) assessed the potential for liquefaction at sixteen key lifeline sites
as part of the Christchurch Lifelines Project, and concluded that 12 of the sites appeared
susceptible to liquefaction.
Soils & Foundations (1996) assessed the potential for liquefaction at six stormwater pump
station sites in Christchurch, and concluded that four sites had a high susceptibility, one
had moderate susceptibility and one had low susceptibility to liquefaction. It also makes
brief comments on the potential damage to the pump stations.
Risks& Realities (Centre for Advanced Engineering, 1997) highlights the liquefaction
hazards in Christchurch, and has mapped liquefaction by classifying the ground shaking
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Tsunami Hazards
Tsunamis are a series of very long waves caused by a sudden displacement of the sea by
undersea earthquake fault rupture, landslide or volcanic eruption (undersea or flow into
sea). Earthquake induced tsunamis can be caused by an undersea fault rupture or
consequent landslide. Tsunamis can be locally generated by such events or could be
generated at a distance and travel many hundreds or thousands of kilometres to affect
coastal areas. The tsunami magnitude could be amplified by the local seabed profile.
Most tsunami reports for New Zealand have been associated with distantly generated
tsunamis, and these can reach the Christchurch coastline.
Natural Hazards in Canterbury (Canterbury Regional Council, 1994) provides a discussion
on the tsunami hazards in Canterbury and mainly focuses on the far field tsunamis
originating from the South American coast.
Risks & Realities (Centre for Advanced Engineering, 1997) presents information on Tsunami
hazards that could affect Christchurch.
The risk of a near field tsunami from active faults off the Christchurch coast is not well
understood.
Tsunamis can cause catastrophic damage to coastal areas as evident from the South Asian
Tsunami of 26 December 2004, which caused severe and widespread damage and loss of
life. Following this event, the Ministry of Civil Defence and Emergency Management is
collating information on tsunami hazards in New Zealand. It would be prudent to review
this information, and decide if any further tsunami hazard studies are prudent for
Christchurch. This would then provide the basis for a separate future tsunami risk study.
The tsunami scenarios for Christchurch are likely to be quite different to the other
earthquake scenarios, and a separate study or a separate part to the proposed earthquake
risk study would therefore be appropriate.
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6.4
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7.1
Objectives
Environment Canterbury needs to know the likely impact and consequences of a major
earthquake on Christchurch. This will allow it to fulfil its hazard mitigation and
emergency management functions. The primary purpose of the risk assessment is
therefore to provide information on the impact and consequences of earthquakes on
Christchurch.
7.2
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This risk study focuses mainly on the damage losses and some consequential direct losses.
The indirect consequences such as economic losses and social disruption are much more
difficult to quantify and are not considered in this study. The indirect losses may be
considered separately as a follow-on study based on the results of this study. There are
ongoing research initiatives to develop methodologies to assess the socio-economic
consequences of earthquakes and their impact on the built environment as discussed in
Section 3.3.
For risk mitigation and emergency management, it is important to know the distribution of
the damage and losses, and not just the total losses, to facilitate the planning of risk
reduction and response. A spatial approach to the risk assessment is therefore considered
to be more beneficial.
7.3
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7.5
Modelling Uncertainty
There is a considerable amount of uncertainty in earthquake risk assessments.
dominant uncertainties are :
The
Within event (rate of attenuation of earthquake shaking between source and location
in Christchurch, and through different ground conditions)
Losses (damage repair cost and consequential costs given damage state)
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Assigning a range of values for the parameters based on the uncertainty, with a
suitable probability distribution.
Monte Carlo analysis using a program such as the @Risk module of spreadsheets.
This would lead to outcomes that are probability distributions or ranges, which can be
stated in terms of a mean and confidence intervals.
This would involve assessment using a combination of GIS and spreadsheets with a
module with Monte Carlo simulation capability such as @Risk.
7.6
General Description
A potential risk assessment model for the Christchurch Risk Study is described and
discussed below. The approach is consistent with that used in HAZUS99 (FEMA, 2001),
and other studies undertaken in New Zealand (Works Consultancy Services, 1995 and
Brabhaharan, 2002).
The risk should be quantified by, for example, $ losses (cost of repair), numbers of pipe
breaks and number of casualties. For lifelines (in particular water supply and roads) it
would be prudent to quantify the consequential loss of service (loss of water supply for
users and traffic disruption). Indirect losses such as business and social disruption are not
included, and could be considered in a follow-on study as discussed in Section 3.3.
In general terms, loss (or numbers of breaks, etc) could be estimated as follows:
Loss = f (hazard, vulnerability, exposure), where:
o
hazard is a condition that increases the chance of loss (e.g. proximity to a fault line),
The process of earthquake risk assessment proposed for Christchurch may be visualised as
a series of GIS themes, each representing a layer of data. This would require the
acquisition of data in a GIS format that would include :
(a) infrastructure maps to establish location and various properties of each asset,
(b) earthquake hazard information, comprising
ground shaking
ground class
liquefaction
slope failure
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General Approach
Obtaining reliable inventory data is the most difficult and time-consuming part of
earthquake risk studies. It is therefore necessary to very carefully design an inventory
model for each infrastructure type that will meet the requirements of the risk methodology
while making use of data that are readily accessible. This requires professional judgement
by engineers experienced in earthquake engineering.
Infrastructure inventory data would be collected from various sources as follows:
(a) Demography Statistics New Zealand
(b) Buildings (Residential, commercial and Industrial) from ECan, CCC or QV
(c) Critical Facilities (Hospitals, Fire Stations, Police Station, Emergency Response
Centres)
(d) Roads CCC and Transit NZ
(e) Water Supply CCC
(f) Telecommunications Telecom, TelstraClear, Vodafone
(g) Electricity Orion, Transpower
The following assets should be covered in the study:
the water supply network to estimate the number and distribution of repairs;
the main telecommunication, power and road networks to enable the loss of service
experienced from these networks and their impacts to be estimated.
A GIS theme would be formed for each type of infrastructure inventory data, which would
include information supplied by the asset owners, CCC or ECan. Assets would be
classified according to their vulnerability to damage based on age, construction type and
other infrastructure-specific characteristics.
Buildings
Information on buildings could be obtained from Christchurch City Council, ECan or
Quotable Value (QV), as discussed in Section 5.2.
Mesh block information would be ideal for residential areas that contain one or two storey
buildings. Typical residential properties have similar seismic performance levels that
would only vary depending on the localised ground conditions. Therefore the time and
effort required to process property data in areas smaller than mesh blocks is not justified as
ground shaking and ground damage is not likely to vary significantly within a mesh block.
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Residential
Commercial
Industrial
Structural Class:
Timber frame
Light steel frame
Tilt-up concrete
Steel moment frame
Steel braced frame
Concrete moment frame
Concrete shear wall
Unreinforced masonry
Reinforced masonry
Structural class could be inferred from building age as discussed in Section 5.2. Similar
classes should be developed for other infrastructure. Building age is also a key
consideration as it relates to earthquake design standards at the time of construction, as
discussed in Section 5.2.
Critical Facilities
Specific information on critical facilities such as hospitals, fire stations, police stations and
emergency response centres will be obtained so that the potential damage to these critical
buildings in earthquakes can be assessed.
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Hazard Modelling
Earthquake Scenarios
A scenario approach to the earthquake risk assessment is proposed as discussed in Section
7.3 of this report.
Four earthquake scenarios are proposed, as summarised in Table 6.
The first three scenarios are discussed in Section 6.2.1.
The fourth scenario is a possible large earthquake on a hidden earthquake source close (say
10 km to 20 km) to Christchurch, perhaps an extension of the North Canterbury faults into
the Canterbury Plains. This is a conjectured source and would indicate the level of damage
from a large, say magnitude 7, earthquake in the Canterbury Plains where the earthquake
sources are poorly understood, and could provide a possible extreme scenario. This
scenario would require further consideration, and reviewed against seismological
knowledge before it is adopted as a scenario for the risk study.
Table 6 - Earthquake Scenarios for Risk Study
Scenario
Magnitude / distance
MM Intensity
Duration
Local earthquake
M 5.5
closer than 20 km
7, possibly 8
5 s to 10 s
M8
at 75 km to 150 km
7 to 8
60 s or more
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Foothills earthquake on
Ashley, Springbank, Porters
Pass-Amberley Faults
M 7.2
closer than 50 km
30 s
M7
At 10 km to 20 km
9+
25 s to 30 s
Source Data
Fault data (locations, magnitudes, rupture type, recurrence intervals) can be sourced from
the Environment Canterbury (2004) Active Faults Database and other publications (e.g.
Institute of Geological & Nuclear Sciences, 1999). Further information on potential
earthquake sources in the Canterbury plains would need to be obtained from Geological
and Nuclear Science.
Attenuation
International trends in earthquake hazard and risk modelling (e.g. HAZUS) use ground
motions (e.g. PGA, spectral accelerations) as the earthquake intensity parameter, rather
than MM intensity. McVerrys attenuation model (McVerry et al, 2000) has been
developed from New Zealand earthquake data and is therefore the most appropriate for
this study.
Ground shaking in the Christchurch area would be derived from the source model and the
McVerry Attenuation relationships and mapped in GIS.
Microzonation
Microzonation effects should be taken into consideration by deriving the following maps:
(a) Ground Class map, from the ground information collated by ECan for the liquefaction
study of Christchurch (Beca, 2003).
(b) Liquefaction ground damage maps, derived by extrapolation of the liquefaction
ground damage map prepared for the Alpine Fault event, for ECan (Beca, 2004).
(c) Slope failure hazard maps, prepared using the broad scale map prepared for the
Christchurch lifelines study (Centre for Advanced Engineering, 1997), improved
through consideration of the terrain (topography data) and site reconnaissance of the
small area affected in the Port Hills.
The ground shaking from earthquake scenarios would be modified using ground class
maps.
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Damage Modelling
General Approach
A damage model could be developed for each asset type, which relates the intensity of the
earthquake to the expected level of damage defined as damage state.
Buildings
The building damage modelling would be based on the HAZUS standard damage states,
none, slight, moderate, extensive and complete. Damage descriptions would be provided
for each building class in each damage state.
The models would be in the form of fragility curves similar to those shown in Figure 11.
They could be derived from HAZUS, ATC-13, New Zealand data (Dowrick et al various) as
well relevant other data (e.g. from Northridge).
Estimates would also be made of damage due to post-earthquake fire.
Slight/Minor
Moderate
Extensive
Complete
1.0000
0.7500
0.5000
0.2500
0.0000
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
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1.4
0
0
1600
PGV (mm/sec)
16% (ALA)
Median (ALA)
84% (ALA)
Mean (ALA)
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Loss Modelling
Economic Loss
Economic loss estimates would be limited to cost of repairing building damage. These
losses are calculated by assigning damage ratios (cost of repair/replacement cost) to the
damage states.
While it is possible to estimate the cost of repairing other infrastructure such as pipelines,
power cables, etc, this would require the total inventory to be modelled, i.e. local as well as
main networks, which is not the intention of this study.
Loss of Function
The impact of the damage on the functioning of the lifelines could be assessed. This could
be modelled as availability /outage states.
The consequence of damage to the pipelines, electricity and telecommunications could be
assessed as the loss of supply to properties, and the consequence of damage to roads as the
traffic disruption.
Casualties
Deaths and injuries are principally attributable to the failure of man-made structures and
facilities. Of these the largest proportion of casualties would be due to building damage.
The casualties could be estimated for a day-time and night-time earthquake, based on
population estimated as discussed in 7.6.2.
The model proposed is to generally follow the HAZUS approach.
7.7
Outputs
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Uncertainty
There are high levels of uncertainty, from both random process effects and lack of
knowledge, associated with all stages of the risk assessment process. Outputs that take
account of these uncertainties could be in the form of a probability distribution rather than
a single number.
The uncertainty would be reflected by applying probability distributions to the hazard,
damage and loss models, and using Monte Carlo analyses to calculate the results.
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Conclusions
A comprehensive review of literature relating to earthquake risk assessment has been
completed. This included New Zealand and international literature. Key features of
significant relevant literature are presented.
Sources of asset data for the study have been explored by contacting the relevant Councils
and organisations. This indicates that the information required for the risk assessment is
likely to be available. Building data is available from Environment Canterbury,
Christchurch City Council or Quotable Value, and the most effective means of obtaining
the data and the cost needs to be confirmed. Telecom New Zealand has indicated that they
would make information available, but this would be limited due to commercial sensitivity
reasons. The data Telecom are willing to make available needs to be confirmed.
The hazard information that is available for the risk assessment has been reviewed.
Generally there is good hazard information available from previous research and specific
studies for Environment Canterbury. To facilitate risk assessment it is considered prudent
to derive some additional microzoning information including a map showing ground class
to modify ground shaking and extrapolate the liquefaction ground damage hazards for
other earthquake scenarios. It would also be useful to assess the slope hazards for the
small part of Christchurch affected in the Port Hills. These relatively limited tasks can be
effectively incorporated into the risk assessment.
A methodology has been developed to undertake an earthquake risk assessment for
Christchurch. This takes into account recent developments in risk assessment approaches,
the earthquake hazard and the existing infrastructure in Christchurch. The approach has
been based on generating risk information that would match the objectives of Environment
Canterbury for the study and to provide a basis for organisations to undertake risk
management actions.
The risk assessment would be based on modelling the inventory (assets), the hazards,
damage and losses. The inventory would be collected from a variety of organisations, and
would include information on critical facilities.
It is proposed that the risk assessment be carried out for four earthquake scenarios, rather
than using probabilistic uniform hazard levels (e.g. 10% probability in 50 years). This
would provide information most suitable for emergency management and meeting
functionality requirements for lifelines. The four earthquake scenarios proposed are the
Alpine Fault earthquake, a foothills earthquake, a local earthquake and a possible
earthquake on a hidden fault source near Christchurch. The hidden fault scenario requires
further consideration and discussion before adoption.
The earthquake shaking would be derived using the McVerry attenuation relationships,
and the ground class would be assessed to derive motions across Christchurch that takes
into consideration the ground conditions. The liquefaction and slope hazards would be
from existing studies and would be extended as required for other scenarios.
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Recommendations
Environment Canterbury will be commissioning an earthquake risk assessment
study for Christchurch. The objectives of such a risk assessment are to understand
the likely impact and consequences of a major earthquake on Christchurch, to fulfil
its hazard mitigation and emergency management functions, and provide
information to stakeholders for them to fulfil their responsibilities under the Civil
Defence Emergency Management Act.
The following recommendations are made:
(i)
A risk assessment study be carried out as envisaged to provide information for risk
management planning and implementation by Environment Canterbury, and other
stakeholders.
(ii)
The study be based on the outline methodology presented in HAZUS and Figures 1
to 3 in this report.
(iii)
(iv)
(v)
Building and demographic data be obtained from ECan, Christchurch City Council
or QV, after considering the most effective way to obtain the data in a format
suitable for the study. Confirm with Telecom New Zealand, what information it
would make available for this study.
(vi)
(vii)
Three earthquake scenarios and a possible fourth scenario be used for the risk
assessment, to provide earthquake risk information to enable emergency response
planning for a range of scenarios. The fourth scenario of a hidden Canterbury
Plains Fault earthquake should be discussed with seismologists as part of the risk
assessment, to decide on the appropriateness for this study.
(viii)
A ground class map be compiled based on ground information collated for ECan
for the liquefaction study, to enable modifications of bedrock shaking to be assessed
across the Christchurch City.
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The liquefaction ground damage map for the Alpine Fault compiled for ECan be
extended to present liquefaction ground damage for earthquake scenarios.
(x)
The earthquake induced slope failure hazard presented in the lifelines report be
enhanced to represent the slope failure hazards in the Port Hills Area, through a
review of aerial and topographical maps and site reconnaissance.
(xi)
(xii)
(xiii)
The damage from fire following earthquakes be included in the risk assessment.
Consideration should be given to using recent New Zealand research into fire
following earthquake.
(xiv)
The earthquake risk to critical facilities such as hospitals, fire stations, police
stations and emergency response centres be assessed in addition to the area wide
assessment of the other buildings.
(xv)
Casualties be assessed based on day time and night time population distributions,
based primarily on building damage.
(xvi)
(xx)
(xxi)
The results of the study be presented through a series of maps to present the spatial
distribution of damage, and accompanying charts and tables.
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10
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Appendix
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Appendix
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