The South China Sea Dispute:

Developments and Key Challenges

for Regional Order
Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer
Presentation to Executive Education Program
The University of New South Wales at the
Australian Defence Force Academy
June 29, 2015

Outline

Geophysical Nature
Natural Resources
Sea Lanes
UN Convention on Law of the Sea
Extent of claims
Physical Occupation

Geo-Strategic Importance

Hainan
Island

Geo-Strategic Importance

Geo-physical Nature
Three main
features
Paracel Islands
Macclesfield
Bank
Spratly Islands

Natural Resources
Hydrocarbon resources
Oil proven reserves R = 7.7 billion barrels
Oil estimates R = 28-213 billion barrels
Natural gas estimates R = 266 trillion cubic feet

Fisheries
Depletion due to over fishing and pollution
Fishermen going further out to disputed waters

UN Convention on Law of the Sea

A Constitution for the worlds Oceans
Does not address sovereignty claims

Focus on sovereign jurisdiction

Territorial Sea
Exclusive Economic Zones/Continental Shelf
Archipelagic state
Islands/rocks/features/low tide elevations
International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea

High Seas
Military
activities
contested by
China and the
US

Innocent
passage

Claimants:
China
Taiwan
Vietnam
Philippines
Malaysia
Brunei

Chinas 9-dash
U-shaped line
laying claim to
historic
waters (80%
of the South
China Sea)

Overlapping
maritime
zones
EEZs based
on UNCLOS
Chinas
claim to
historic
rights

Sansha City, Woody Island

Woody Island/Yongxing (China)

Features Occupied/Marked

Physical Occupation
Country
Vietnam
Philippines
China
Malaysia
Taiwan
Brunei

Features Occupied
21+
8-10
7-8
5-7
1-2
0

Mischief Reef (China) 1995, 2005, 2012

Mischief Reef

South Johnson
Reef (left) and
Fiery Cross
Reef (below)
March 1988 China
and Vietnam fought
a naval
engagement. China
occupied South
Johnson and Fiery
Cross Reefs

Johnson South Reef

Fiery Cross Reef

Scarborough Shoal (Philippines)

Truong Sa Lon (Vietnam)

High Seas
donut hole
UNCLOS:
islands and
rocks
End of high
seas if EEZs
drawn around
islands

Future Strategic Environment

Australias security environment will be
more challenging over the next 20 years
Erosion of Australias historical military
capability and technological advantages
Strait line extrapolations of current
trends risky
What are the plausible alternatives?

Australia & South China Sea

Challenges
Chinas rise and military modernisation
Security dilemma

Arms build up by regional states

Military technology and weapons systems
Growth of submarine fleets
Cruise missiles

Hot spots
East China Sea, Taiwan, South China Sea

Future Strategic Environment

Strategic uncertainty
Broader range of possible strategic futures
Wild cards
Instability in China and/or Indonesia
Deterioration of China-US relations
Eruption of armed conflict
US abandonment
Climate change

The South China Sea Dispute:

Developments and Key Challenges
for Regional Order
Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer
Presentation to Executive Education Program
Australian Defence Force Academy
June 29, 2015