METODE STATISTIKA

Kode Matakuliah: STK211, 3(2-3)

Tujuan Instruksional Umum:

Setelah mengikuti mata kuliah ini selama satu semester,
mahasiswa akan dapat menjelaskan prinsip-prinsip dasar
metode statistika, dan mampu mengerjakan beberapa
analisis statistika sederhana.

Pokok Bahasan
Minggu Ke

Pokok Bahasan

Daftar Pustaka

Pendahuluan

1(1-10); 2(1-13)

II

Deskripsi Data

1(13-69);2(33-71);3(44-119)

III

Konsep Dasar Peluang

1(73-131);2(72-146);3(122224)

IV-V

Konsep Peubah Acak dan Sebaran

Peluang Acak

1(135-235); 2(147-204)

VI

Sebaran Penarikan Contoh

1(135-235); 2(147-204)

VII

Ujian Tengah Semester

VIII-IX

Pendugaan Parameter

1(135-235);2(147-204)

X-XI

Pengujian Hipotesis

1(135-235);2(147-204);3(225339)

XII

Analisis Korelasi dan Regresi Linear

Sederhana

XIII

Analisis Data Kategori

XIV

Topik Khusus I

XV

Topik Khusus II

XVI

Ujian Akhir Semester

Kepustakaan
1.

2.

3.

Fleming, M.C. dan J.G. Nellis. 1994. Principles

of Applied Statistic. Routledge. London.
Hamburg, M. 1974. Basic Statistics: A Modern
Approach. Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, Inc.
New York.
Koopmans, L.H. 1987. Introduction to
Contemporary Statistical Methods 2nd ed.
Duxbury, Press. Boston.

PENDAHULUAN

Apa itu statistika?

berasal dari kata statistik
penduga parameter
Ilmu yang mempelajari dan mengusahakan
agar data menjadi informasi yang bermakna
Statistika

Statistika
Populasi

Sampling

Pendugaan

Contoh

Deskriptif

Statistika Deskriptif
vs
Statistika Inferensia

Tingkat Keyakinan

Ilmu Peluang

Langkah-langkah Analisis
Statistika
Studying a problem through the use of
statistical data analysis usually involves four
basic steps.

Defining the problem

Collecting the data
Analyzing the data
Reporting the results

Defining the Problem

An exact definition of the problem is imperative in
order to obtain accurate data about it.
It is extremely difficult to gather data without a
clear definition of the problem.

Collecting the Data

Designing ways to collect data is an important job in

statistical data analysis.
Two important aspects of a statistical study are:
Population - a set of all the elements of interest in a
study
Sample - a subset of the population

Statistical inference is refer to extending your knowledge obtain

from a random sample from a population to the whole
population.

The purpose of statistical inference is to obtain information about

a population form information contained in a sample. It is just not
feasible to test the entire population, so a sample is the only
realistic way to obtain data because of the time and cost
constraints.

Data can be either quantitative or qualitative. Qualitative

data are labels or names used to identify an attribute of
each element. Quantitative data are always numeric and
indicate either how much or how many.

Data can be collected from existing sources or obtained

through observation and experimental studies designed
to obtain new data.

In an experimental study, the variable of interest is identified.

Then one or more factors in the study are controlled so that data
can be obtained about how the factors influence the variables.
In observational studies, no attempt is made to control or
influence the variables of interest. A survey is perhaps the most
common type of observational study.

Analyzing the Data

Statistical data analysis divides the methods for

analyzing data into two categories:

exploratory methods

Exploratory methods are used to discover what the data seems to

be saying by using simple arithmetic and easy-to-draw pictures to
summarize data

confirmatory methods

Confirmatory methods use ideas from probability theory in the

attempt to answer specific questions. Probability is important in
decision making because it provides a mechanism for measuring,
expressing, and analyzing the uncertainties associated with future
events.

Reporting the Results

Through inferences, an estimate or test claims about the characteristics of a

population can be obtained from a sample.
The results may be reported in the form of a table, a graph or a set of
percentages. Because only a small collection (sample) has been examined
and not an entire population, the reported results must reflect the
uncertainty through the use of probability statements and intervals of
values.
To conclude, a critical aspect of managing any organization is planning for
the future. Statistical data analysis helps us to forecast and predict future
aspects of a business operation.
The most successful leader and decision makers are the ones who can
understand the information and use it effectively.

Perkembangan Analisis
Statistika
Analisis statistika telah banyak digunakan pada berbagai
bidang. Analisis statistika yang digunakan mulai dari
analisis statistika yang paling sederhana (statistika
deksriptif) sampai analisis statistika lanjutan
Beberapa ilustrasi analisis statistika:
Statistik Deskriptif
Analisis statistika yang bertujuan untuk menyajikan (tabel dan
grafik) dan meringkas (ukuran pemusatan dan penyebaran) data
sehingga data menjadi informasi yang mudah dipahami.

Ilustrasi
Stem-and-Leaf Display: Volume
Matrix Plot of Diameter, Height, Volume

Stem-and-leaf of Volume N = 31
Leaf Unit = 1.0

60

70

80

20
15

Diameter

10

10 1 0005688999
(9) 2 111224457
12 3 13468
7 4 2
6 5 11558
1 6
1 7 7

80
Height

60
70
45

10

60

Histogram of Volume
Mean
StDev
N

Frequency

50
40
30

20

10

4
2
0

30.17
16.44
31

Volume

Normal

10

20

40
Volume

60

80

15

Boxplot of Volume

70

12

Volume

20

80

14

70

20

20

45

70

Statistika Inferensia
Perbandingan Rataan Populasi
Satu populasi Uji t atau uji z
Dua populasi Uji t atau uji z
Lebih

dari dua populasi anova

Hubungan antar variabel

dua arah Analisis Korelasi
Hubungan satu arah (sebab akibat) Analisis
Regresi
Hubungan

Ilustrasi Hubungan antar peubah

Analisis Korelasi & Regresi Linier
Matrix Plot of x1, x2, Y1
0

10

12
x1

10
8

10

x2

0
35
30

Y1

25
8

10

12

25

30

35

Ilustrasi Hubungan antar peubah

Correlations: x1,
x2, Y1

x2

Y1

x1
-0.016
0.948

x2

0.891
0.000

0.391
0.088

Regression Analysis: Y1 versus x1, x2

The regression equation is
Y1 = 2.20 + 2.46 x1 + 0.565 x2

Predictor
Constant
x1
x2

Coef
2.200
2.4621
0.56531

S = 1.02180

SE Coef
1.416
0.1353
0.06884

R-Sq = 95.9%

T
1.55
18.19
8.21

P
0.139
0.000
0.000

R-Sq(adj) = 95.4%

Analysis of Variance
Source
Regression
Residual Error
Total

DF
2
17
19

SS
411.21
17.75
428.96

MS
205.61
1.04

F
196.93

P
0.000

Residuals Versus the Fitted Values

Normal Probability Plot of the Residuals

(response is Y1)

(response is Y1)

99

95
90
80

Percent

Residual

-1

70
60
50
40
30
20

-2

10
5

-3
20

22

24

26

28
30
Fitted Value

32

34

36

38

-3

-2

-1

0
Residual

Ilustrasi Hubungan antar peubah

Analisis Regresi Logistik
Binary Logistic Regression: Y2 versus x1, x2
Link Function: Logit
Response Information
Variable
Y2

Value
1
0
Total

Count
12
8
20

(Event)

Logistic Regression Table

Predictor
Constant
x1
x2

Coef
3.87448
-0.516801
0.396576

SE Coef
3.38365
0.357665
0.211489

Z
1.15
-1.44
1.88

P
0.252
0.148
0.061

Odds
Ratio
0.60
1.49

95% CI
Lower Upper
0.30
0.98

1.20
2.25

Log-Likelihood = -10.017
Test that all slopes are zero: G = 6.886, DF = 2,
P-Value = 0.032

Goodness-of-Fit Tests
Method
Pearson
Deviance
Hosmer-Lemeshow

Chi-Square
21.7994
20.0347
14.8216

DF
17
17
8

P
0.193
0.272
0.063

Analisis Data Lanjutan

Analisis Multivariate
Manova
Analisis Komponen Utama
Analisis Faktor
Analisis Cluster
Analisis Diskriminan
Analisis Korelasi Kanonik
Analisis Biplot

Analisis data time series

Data time series merupakan data yang dikumpulkan

secara sequensial menurut periode waktu tertentu.
Peranan ramalan (forecasting) data ke depan
memegang peranan penting dalam menyusun
kebijakan strategis perusahaan/lembaga
Metode Forecasting yang berkembang saat ini,
antara lain:

Metode Rataan Kumulatif

Metode Pemulusan (Smoothing)
ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average)
Fungsi Transfer (Bivariate ARIMA)
MARIMA (Multivariate ARIMA)

Pola Data Time Series

Ilustrasi: Forecasting dengan Metode

Smoothing Moving Average

Formula:

M T M T 1

( X T X T N )
N

Ilustrasi: Forecasting dengan Metode

Smoothing Eksponensial

Bentuk umum:

Ft 1 X t (1 ) Ft

Ilustrasi Metode Winter

(Kasus data musiman)
Xt = b1+b2 t + ct + t

Xt = (b1+b2 t) ct + t

Time Series Plot of x

1400
1200
1000

800
600

Winters' Method Plot for x

400

Additive Method

200

Variable
A ctual
Smoothed

1400

0
5

10

15

20

25
Index

30

35

40

45

1200

Smoothing Constants
A lpha (lev el)
0.2
Gamma (trend)
0.2
Delta (seasonal)
0.2

1000
800

A ccuracy Measures
MA PE
60
MA D
267
MSD
101122

600
400
200
0
1

10

15

20

25
Index

30

35

40

45

SEKIAN
DAN
TERIMA KASIH