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Objectives
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EXAMPLE 1
Historical
Note
The name hypergeometric
is attributed to Leonhard Euler. Euler
was born in Basel, Switzerland, on
April 15, 1707. His father was a
minister and wanted Leonhard to
study theology as well. However, after
a discussion with Johann Bernoulli, a
friend from college, Eulers father
allowed him to study mathematics
at the University of Basel. Euler
completed his studies in 1726. Euler
married Katharina Gsell on January 7,
1734. They had 13 children, only 5 of
whom survived. Euler claims to have
made many of his greatest discoveries
with a child in his arms and children
crawling at his feet. In 1740, Euler lost
sight in his right eye.One of his famous
quotes on this loss is Now I will have
less distraction. He eventually lost
sight in his other eye as well, but this
did not slow him down. Euler died on
September 18, 1783, in St. Petersburg.
1kCx21N - kCn - x2
NCn
(1)
The logic behind Formula (1) is based on the Classical Method given on page
263, along with the Multiplication Rule of Counting given on page 304. The Classical Method for computing probabilities states that the probability of an event is the
number of ways the event can occur, divided by the total number of outcomes in
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the experiment. The denominator of Formula (1) represents the number of ways n
objects can be selected from N objects. This represents the number of possible outcomes in the experiment. The numerator consists of two factors. The first factor,
kCx, represents the number of ways we can select the x successes from the k successes in the population. The second factor, 1N - k2C1n - x2, represents the number of
ways we can select n - x failures from the N - k failures in the population. Using
the Multiplication Rule of Counting, we find the number of ways we could obtain x
successes from n trials of the experiment.
EXAMPLE 2
Solution
(a) We are looking for the probability of obtaining 3 successes, so x = 3.
P132 =
112C321200 - 12C 20 - 32
112C321188C172
=
= 0.0833
C
200 20
200C20
112C021200 - 12C20 - 02
200C20
= 1 -
112C021188C202
200C20
= 0.7282
EXAMPLE 3
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EXAMPLE 4
Figure 15
P( X x )
0.278250
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k
N
and
sX =
N - n # # k
b n
B N - 1
N
#N
- k
N
(2)
k
is the proportion of successes in the population. If you look carefully at
N
k
the formulas for the mean and standard deviation and replace
with p, we almost
N
have the formulas for the mean and standard deviation of a binomial random
N - n
variable. (Note that
is a finite population correction factor that approaches
N - 1
1 as the population size increases, while n stays fixed and small relative to N. For
this reason, we ignore its effect on the standard deviation of a binomial random
variable)
The ratio
EXAMPLE 5
Solution
mX = n #
k
12
= 20 #
= 1.2
N
200
and
sX =
N - n # # k
b n
B N - 1
N
#N
- k
200 - 20 # # 12
=
a
b 20
N
B 200 - 1
200
# 200
- 12
= 1.01
200
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1. Explain the similarities and differences between the hypergeometric probability distribution and the binomial probability
distribution.
2. What criteria must be satisfied for a random variable X to be
a hypergeometric random variable?
3. When listing the possible values of the hypergeometric random variable X, it must be the case that x is less than or equal
to the smaller of n or k. Why?
4. In your own words, explain the logic behind Formula (1).
Skill Building
In Problems 58, verify that the following probability experiments
represent hypergeometric probability experiments. Then determine
the values of N, n, k and list the possible values of the random
variable X.
5. In Michigans Winfall Lottery, a player must choose 6 numNW bers between 1 and 49, inclusive. Six balls numbered
between 1 and 49 are then randomly selected from an urn.
The random variable X represents the number of matching
numbers.
6. In a neighborhood of 95 homes, 35 have pets. Suppose that
12 homes are selected at random. The random variable X
represents the number of homes in the sample that have
pets.
7. A manufacturer received an order of 250 computer chips.
Unfortunately, 12 of the chips are defective. To test the
shipment, the quality-control engineer randomly selects 20
chips from the box of 250 and tests them. The random variable X represents the number of defective chips in the
sample of 20.
8. A baseball team has 25 players, 7 of whom bat left-handed.
Suppose that the manager of this team is frustrated with
the way the team is playing, so he decides to randomly
select 9 players to play in the upcoming game. The random
variable X is the number of left-handed batters in the
game.
In Problems 912, a hypergeometric probability experiment is
conducted with the given parameters. Compute the probability
of obtaining x successes.
9. N = 150, n = 20, k = 30, x = 5
10. N = 60, n = 8, k = 25, x = 3
11. N = 230, n = 15, k = 200, x = 12
12. N = 150, n = 10, k = 10, x = 1
In Problems 1316, compute the mean and standard deviation
of the hypergeometric random variable X.
13. N = 150, n = 20, k = 30
14. N = 60, n = 8, k = 25
15. N = 230, n = 15, k = 200
16. N = 150, n = 10, k = 10
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TECHNOLOGY STEP-BY-STEP
TI-83/84 Plus
The TI-83/84 Plus graphing calculators do not have
this feature.
Excel
Computing P(x)
1. If desired, enter the possible values of the random
variable X whose probability you wish to compute
in column A. For example, if we want the probability
that x = 0, 1, 2, or 3 in Example 3(a), we enter 0, 1, 2,
and 3 into column A.
2. With the cursor in cell B1, select the fx icon.
Highlight Statistical in the Function category window.
Highlight HYPGEOMDIST in the Function name
window. Click OK.
3. Fill in the window as shown to obtain the
probabilities from Example 3(a). Click OK.
MINITAB
Computing P(x)
1. If desired, enter the possible values of the random
variable X whose probability you wish to compute in
C1. For example, if we want the probability that x = 0,
1, 2, or 3 in Example 3(a), we enter 0, 1, 2, and 3 into C1.
Computing P (X x)
Follow the same steps as for computing P1x2.
In the window that comes up after selecting
Hypergeometric , select the radio button for
Cumulative probability.
2. Select the Calc menu, highlight Probability
Distributions, then highlight Hypergeometric . . .
3. Fill in the window as shown to obtain the
probabilities from Example 3(a). Click OK.
Note that, if we only want P102, it is simplest to
select the Input constant: radio button and enter
0 in the box.
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N = 49, n = 6, k = 6, X = 0, 1, 2, , 6
N = 250, n = 20, k = 12, X = 0, 1, 2, , 12
0.1856
0.1939
mX = 4, sX = 1.67
mX = 13.0, sX = 1.26
(a) 0.01986
(b) 0.001146
(c) 0.0000229
(d) 0.000000093
(e) 0.02103
(f) 0.766; 0.772; 0.766
19. (a) 0.0087
(b) 0.0507
(c) 0.3590
(d) 0
(e) 0.96
21. 0.6483
23. (a) 0.6539
(b) 0.4065
(c) 0.1270
(d) 0.0245
(e) 0.0014
(f)
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
20
40
60
80
100
Percent Defective
AN61