CE 303 - Transportation Engineering

Transportation Planning
Lecture 2 - Trip Generation
Input
Production end

Residential

Residential

Production end

Nonresidential
(business,
schools,
industry)

Nonresidential
(business,
schools,
industry)

Attraction end

Land use and

socioeconomic target
year allocation by zone
Process

Calibrated trip
generation model

Attraction end

Output

Trip ends Q i
Trip productions P i
Trip Attractions A j

Zone j

Zone i
Note : 1. Each zone has two trip ends
2. Zone i has two trip productions
3. Zone j has two trip attractions

Fig. 2.1 Trip ends, production and attractions.

Fig. 2.2 Trip generation

An urban region is first divided into zones to study its travel requirements. A zone can be residential, non
residential or both residential and non residential. Residential zones generate trips while non-residential
zones attract trips. However, a zone which is both residential and non residential will produce and attracts
trips. To estimate the future (target year) trips generated by a zone it is necessary to know the present
(base year) trip generating rates. Using mathematical models the total trips produced by or attracted by
each zone can be determined to estimate the total trips generated by an urban region.
Residential zones themselves are too large to be considered to determine the travel patterns. Residential
zones have households as the smallest entities to ease the travel analysis.

2.1

Zones and households

Individual travel patterns are difficult to trace in a region. Therefore, a region is divided into easy travel
analysis zones. In older models a zone is the smallest entity for trip making interest. Models were
calibrated using overall zonal characteristics.
The zonal characteristics (attributes) like zonal population, average zonal income, average vehicle
ownership, average adults per household are used in the analysis.
Zonal averages in a residential zone do not show variability of the attributes within the zone. This affects
accuracy of estimated trip levels. Eg. Income levels differ from household to household. Therefore,
households are used as the smallest entities in modern trip production models. Zone based models are
known as aggregate models and Household based models are known as disaggregate models.

2.2

Trip productions and attractions

Trips generated in a model for each zone are trip ends denoted by Qi associated with that zone. The trip
ends are either origins or destinations. Generated trips can be either trip productions or trip attractions.
The rule is, residential zones produce trips (Pi) and non-residential zones attract trips (Aj).
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2.2.1 Trip purpose

The next information that has to be extracted in the trip generation analysis is the purpose of the trip. This
can tell the planner a trips destination and the travel mode. By purpose, the trips are commonly
classified as,
(i.) Work trips
(ii.) School trips
(iii.) Shopping trips
(iv.) Social trips
(v.)
Recreational trips.
2.3

Trip generation models

It is necessary to develop a mathematical model which is able to estimate the trips generated by a zone
using the zonal attributes. The commonly used mathematical models are, (1.) Regression, (2.) Trip rate
analysis and (3.) Cross classification models.
2.3.1

Regression models

In a regression analysis model the trip generation is given as a dependant variable by inputting the zonal
trip attributes as the independent variables. An example is the simple linear regression model,
(2.1)
Y = 0 + 1*X1 + 2*X2 + 3*X3 + 4*X4
Y is the dependent variable
X1, X2, X3, X4 etc. are independent variables.
0, 1, 2, 3, 4 etc. are the model parameters.
The trip generation regression models do not necessarily have to be linear regression models. But linear
regression models are commonly used in the estimation of trip generation. A regression model has to be
calibrated using observed data. That means the constants 0 , 1 , 2 , 3 ,4 etc. have to be determined by
regression using observed values of the independent variables (attributes). The zonal trips generated can
be estimated by inputting the zonal attributes to the calibrated model.

Example: The zonal trip production per day in any zone of an urban region is given by the regression
model,
Y = 0 + 1*X1*(2X2 + 3X3 + 4X4)
(2.2)
Where,
X1 = zonal population
X2 = average zonal income
X3 = average vehicle ownership
X4 = average adults per household
0 = 150,
1 = 3.5
2 =.003
3 =1.5
4 = 1.7.
Calculate the number of trips generated per day by each zone which have the following zonal attributes,
Zone i
1
2
3

X1
1750
2240
1980

X2
Rs 40000
Rs 20000
Rs 35000

X3
1.8
0.6
1.2

Answer.
Trips production per day,
by Zone 1 =150+ 3.5* 1750* (0.003*40000+1.5*1.8+1.7*2.7) = 118301
by Zone 2 =150+ 3.5* 2240* (0.003*20000+1.5*0.6+1.7*5.8) = 131548
by Zone 3 =150+ 3.5* 1980* (0.003*35000+1.5*1.2+1.7*3.6) = 127801
2

X4
2.7
5.8
3.6

2.3.2

Trip rate analysis

The trip rate analysis is simpler than regression models. Trip rate analysis is a combination of several
models that are developed by determining the average trip production or trip attraction rates associated
with the important trip generators within the zone. An example of these trip generators is the land use.
Table 2.1 gives the trip rate analysis of a region based on land use.
Table 2.1 Floor space Trip generation rates grouped by generalized land use categories in downtown
Pittsburgh. (Ref. Fundamentals of Transportation Engineering by CS Papacostas. p 254)
Land use category
Floor space
Person trips
Trips 1000 m2
Residential
254926
6574
25.8
Commercial - Retail
625423
54833
87.7
Commercial - Wholesale
241455
3162
13.1
Commercial - Services
1254748
70014
55.8
Manufacturing
129321
1335
10.32
Transportation
129507
5630
43.47
Public Buildings
276572
11746
42.47

Another trip rate analysis that can be developed for the same region is person trips per hectare of land use
by zones.
Table 2.2 Person trips per hectare by land use and zone. (Ref. Fundamentals of Transportation
Engineering by CS Papacostas p 255)
Personal trips per hectare
Commercial
Average
Manu
Trans Public Public
Resid
Zone
fact
port
build
open
Whole Servi
Used
All
ential Retail
uring
ation
ings
space
sale
ces
land
land
1
128
850
135
445
353
73
595
5
128
100
2
108
423
90
258
183
25
265
3
75
50
3
93
563
115
505
83
35
375
10
80
55
4
75
670
73
385
73
25
245
5
65
43
5
55
463
60
365
55
13
90
5
43
20
6
45
485
48
338
53
18
48
3
35
13
7
38
380
40
328
35
15
10
3
28
8
Average
60
565
328
78
65
23
115
5
50
23
The average personal trips per hectare of land use can now be used to estimate the personal trips
generated in any other zones.
Example: Four zones of an urban region have the following areas of land use. Calculate the trips produced
and attracted by the zones using the trip rates given in Table 2.2.
Area (ha)
Land use category
Zone 1
Zone 2
Zone 3
Residential
2500
150
50
Commercial Retail
375
900
150
Wholesale
450
500
200
Services
150
250
200
Manufacturing
125
0
2500
Transportation
80
250
350
Public buildings
230
1500
125
Public open space
300
350
100
3

Answer
First calculate the trips generated by land use.
Area by land use(ha)
Zone 1
Zone 2
Zone 3
Residential
150000
9000
3000
Commercial Retail
211875
508500
84750
Wholesale
147600
164000
65600
Services
11700
19500
15600
Manufacturing
8125
0
162500
Transportation
1840
5750
8050
Public buildings
26450
172500
14375
Public open space
1500
1750
500
Total
559090
881000
354375
Sort out trip productions and attractions by residential and non residential trip generation.
Personal trips
Type of trips
Zone 1
Zone 2
Zone 3
Production
150000
9000
3000
Attractions
409090
872000
351375
Total
559090
881000
354375
Land use category

There are many ways in which the trip rates can be arranged. Tables 2.3 to 2.5 show hypothetical
examples of different trip rates that can be developed to determine trips generated.
Table 2.3 Example of person-trip attraction rates.
Trips per employee
Trips
per
Retail
Trip purpose
Non
houseShop
retail CBD
Other
hold
center
Home based work
1.70
1.70
1.70
1.70
Home based shop
2.00
9.00
4.00
Home based school
Home based other
0.70
0.60
1.10
4.00
2.30
Non home based
0.30
0.40
1.00
4.60
2.30

University

High
school

Other

0.90
-

1.60
-

1.20
-

Table 2.4 An example of traffic generation rates for residential areas

Residential traffic
Morning peak (trips/unit)
Afternoon peak (trips/unit)
generator
In
Out
Total
In
Out
Total
Single family residence
0.23
0.58
0.81
0.60
0.40
1.00
Multifamily apartments
0.08
0.49
0.57
0.46
0.23
0.69
Table 2.5 An example of trip rates for various commercial activities
Trips per 100 m2 GFA* at
Trips per 100 m2 GFA* at
Commercial trip generator
peak hour of operation
afternoon peak street-hour
Drive in restaurants
276.6
116.3
Sit down restaurants
37.7
26.9
Food stores
15.1
12.9
Neighbourhood shopping centres
16.1
15.1
Automobile service stations
30.1
24.8
Motels
0.9
0.6
Office buildings
2.5
2.5
Hospitals
1.1
0.8
* GFA Gross Floor Area of Buildings.
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2.3.3 Cross classification models

Cross classification is an extension of simple trip rate analysis models. They are zone based models but in
trip generation they are used as disaggregate models. In residential trip generation households are further
subdivided into categories or classes that highly correlate with trip making. Trip rates associated with
each category of households are estimated by statistical methods. These rates which are assumed to
remain stable over time are used to estimate trip generation in similar zones. An example of home based
non work calibrated trip production rates are given in Table 2.6.
Table 2.6 Example of home based non work trip production rates for cross classification
Trips per household per day
Vehicles available per
Area type
No of persons per household
household
1
2-3
4
0
0.57
2.07
4.57
Urban high
1
1.45
3.02
5.52
density
2+
1.82
3.39
5.89
0
0.97
2.54
5.04
Suburban
medium
1
1.92
3.49
5.99
density
2+
2.29
3.86
6.36
0
0.54
1.94
4.44
Rural low
1
1.32
2.89
5.39
density
2+
1.69
3.26
5.76

5+
6.95
7.90
8.27
7.42
8.37
8.74
96.82
7.77
8.14

Example: An urban zone contains 200 hectares of residential land, 50 hectares of commercial land and 10
hectares of park land. The zones predicted target year household composition is as follows,
Vehicles per
household
0
1
2+

1
100
300
150

Number of households
No of persons per household
2-3
4
200
150
500
210
100
60

5+
20
50
00

Using the calibrated cross classification rates given in Table 2.6 estimate the total home based non work
trips that the zone produces during a typical day of the target year.
Answer
This is a high density zone (large residential area). The total trip productions Pi of the zone i estimated by
summing up the contributions of each household type is given by,

Pi = N h Rh
h

where Nh is the number of households type h and Rh is the corresponding trip production rate. Thus, the
trip productions by each house hold type is given by,
Vehicles per
household
0
1
2+

Number of trips generated by household type

No of persons per household
1
2-3
4
5+
100 x 0.57
200 x 2.07
150 x 4.57
20 x 6.95
300 x 1.45
500 x 3.02
210 x 5.52
50 x 7.90
150 x 1.82
100 x 3.39
60 x 5.89
00 x 8.27
Grand Total
5

Total by
household type
1296
3499
965
5760

2.4

Trip generation procedure

The trip generation procedure requires travel characteristics. There are two main sets of travel
characteristics. They are, residential and non residential. They are obtained from zonal socioeconomic
and land use projections.
Fig 2.3 shows a flow chart illustrating an example of a procedure for estimating the trip productions and
trip attractions in a zone. Note that the analysis has also included special trip attraction sites. These could
be airports, major shopping centres, hospitals and universities which have unique trip attraction
characteristics.

Inputs
Inputs
Forecast by zone of
total households,
distribution of
household size and
vehicle availability

Identify special
attraction sites

Trip attraction
Trip production
Identify area type
by zone

Apply trip
attraction rates
by zone

Apply trip
production rates
by zone

Obtain total trip

attraction by
zone and
purpose

Trip production by
purpose, by zone
and totals by
purpose

Compare
regional totals to
trip production
and factors if
necessary

Output

Forecasts by zone
of employmant by
type, school
enrollment, area of
parks

Special
attractors
Subtract special
attractors from
zone totals
Estimate special
attractor trip
totals by site
Split special
attractor trips by
purpose by site.

Trip attraction
by purpose, by
zone and totals
by purpose

Output
Fig. 2.3 Example of procedure for prediction of trip attraction and trip production
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