CE 303 - Transportation Engineering

Transportation Planning
Lecture 3 - Trip Distribution
Having determined trip generations Qi (productions Pi and attractions Aj) the next step is the estimation of
target year interchange trip volumes Qij between all pairs of zones. This process is called the trip
distribution. It is illustrated by Fig 3.1.

Trip end estimates

from trip generation
Qi or {Pi, Aj }
Target year
estimates of
interzonal
impedance Wijs
and zonal
attractiveness ajs

Calibrated trip
distribution model

Estimated
target year Qij
Fig. 3.1 Process of estimation of trip distribution.
The rule of trip distribution ensures that all trip attracting zones js compete with each other to attract trips
produced by each zone i. Most trips will be attracted by the zone j with highest attractiveness aj and
lowest travel impedance Wij.
Travel impedance Wij between zone i producing a trip and zone j attracting the trip is associated with the
level of difficulty of travel, travel time, out of pocket travel cost and the like between the two zones. Wij
has a definite effect on the choice of the attracted zone for a trip produced in zone i. In other words choice
of j depends on Wij in addition to aj. Therefore, highest attractiveness aj and lowest impedance Wij are
controlling factors in trip interchanges between two zones. Trip distribution is estimated using one of the
two common mathematical models. They are the Gravity model and the Fratar model.

3.1

The Gravity model

The Gravity model is based on Newtons law of gravitation,

F =k

M 1M 2
r2

(3.1)

Application of this law to trip distribution takes the form,

Qij = k

Pi a j

(3.2)

ij

k and c are parameters of the model.

The model can be calibrated using usual mathematical modeling techniques. According to the model, the
interchange volume Qij between a trip producing zone i and a trip attracting zone j is directly proportional
to the magnitude of trip productions Pi of zone i and trip attractiveness aj of zone j and is inversely
proportional to a function of the impedance Wij between the two zones.
k can be eliminated by applying a trip production balance constraint,

Pi = Qix

(3.3)

The constraint states that the total trips Pi produced by zone i is equal to the sum of overall shares of Pi
trips distributed to the zones x.

Pi = kPi
x

a
k = xc
x Wix

ax
Wixc

(3.4)

(3.5)

which is the expression for k that ensures the trip balance constraint given by Eq. 3.3 is satisfied.
Now, substituting for k we have,

Q ij

= Pi

a
W

j
c
ij

ax

c
W ix

(3.6)

aj

c
Wij
is the proportion of the trips produced by zone i that is attracted by zone j in competition
a
xc
x Wix
with all trip attracting zones x.

The gravity model is often written as,

2

a
F
j ij

Qij = Pi
(a F )
x x ix
where Fij =

(3.7)

1
is known as the travel time factor.
Wijc

Finally, a set of interzonal socioeconomic adjustment factors Kij are introduced during calibration to
incorporate the effects of a limited number of independent variables not included in the model. The
resulting model is,

a j Fij K ij

Qij = Pi
= Pi p ij
(
)
a
F
K
x ix
ix

(3.8)

Where pij is the probability that a trip generated by zone i will be attracted by zone j.
If Aj is the target year trip attractions of zone j, the following equation results,

A j = Q xj

(3.9)

Example: The target year trip productions and relative attractiveness of a four zone city have been
estimated as follows,
Zone, i
1
2
3
4

Trip Productions, Pi
1500
0
2600
0

Attractiveness, ai
0
3
2
5

The calibration of the Gravity model for this city estimated the parameter c to be 2.0 and all
socioeconomic adjustment factors to be equal to unity. Apply the Gravity model to estimate all target year
interchange volumes Qij and to estimate the total target year attractions of each zone. The target year
interzonal impedances Wij were found to be as follows,

Zone i
1
2
3
4

1
5
10
15
20

Interzonal impedance Wij

Zone j
2
3
10
15
5
10
10
5
15
10

4
20
15
10
5

Answer
Note: The trip generation data indicate that there are three types of zones in this city. Zone 1 is purely
residential (no attractiveness). Zones 2 and 4 are purely non residential (no productions)., while zone 3 is
a mixed land use zone.(production and attractiveness). The diagonal elements of impedance matrix
represent intrazonal impedances, i.e. the impedance associated with trips that begin and end within each
zone.
3

Calculate distribution of trip productions (by zones 1 and 3). The calculation of interchange volumes
using

a
F
K

j ij ij
Qij = Pi
= Pi pij for zones i=1 and i=3 are as follows in table form,
(
)
a
F
K
j ij ij

For i =1, P1 = 1500.

j
aj
1
0
2
3
3
2
4
5

For i =3, P3 = 2600.

j
aj
1
0
2
3
3
2
4
5

F1j
0.0400
0.0100
0.0044
0.0025
Total

K1j
1. 0
1. 0
1. 0
1. 0

aj F1jK1j
0.0000
0.0300
0.0089
0.0125
0.0514

P1j
0.000
0.584
0.173
0.243
1.000

Q1j
0
875
260
365
P1=1500

F3j
0.0044
0.0100
0.0400
0.0100
Total

K3j
1. 0
1. 0
1. 0
1. 0

aj F3jK3j
0.0000
0.0300
0.0800
0.0500
0.1600

P3j
0.000
0.188
0.500
0.312
1.000

Q3j
0
488
1300
812
P3=2600

Now calculate the total target year trip attractions of the non residential zones (j=2, j=3, j=4) applying

A j = Q xj
x

A2 = 875+488 = 1363
A3 = 260+1300 = 1560
A4 = 365+812 = 1177
The following trip table gives the summary of the solution,

Zone i
1
2
3
4
Total

1
0
0
0
0
0

2
875
0
488
0
1363

Interzonal trips Qij

Zone j
3
4
260
365
0
0
1300
812
0
0
1560
1177

Total
1500
0
2600
0
4100

Note: It is possible that, trips produced by the mixed land use zone 3 are attracted by the non residential
sector of the same zone. The other diagonal elements in the trip matrix are zero.

Example: You are a planning consultant to a property development company that is considering the
construction of a major shopping centre in a city. At present, the city consists of three residential zones
and the central business district (CBD), where all shopping activity is concentrated. Your client can
acquire land for the proposed shopping centre at any location shown to him by you. The client is
interested in your prediction of the shopping trips the centre will attract if built to compete with the CBD.
The following data have been made available to you,

1. Daily shopping trip production per person

Household income
level (X3)

Personal car ownership per

household(X2)
0
1
2
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.5

Household size (X1

persons/household)
2
3
4
2
3
4

II

2. The relative shopping attractiveness of commercial zones have been found to be given by the
following multiple regression equation A = 5*Xa + 3*Xb.
Xa = area of shopping floor space provided in hectares
Xb = available parking area in hectares.

3. Land use and socioeconomic projections (commercial zones)

Base year

Zone
4 (CBD)
5 (Shopping centre)

Xa
3.0
0.0

Xb
2.0
0.0

Target year
Xa
Xb
3.0
2.5
2.0
3.0

4. Land use and socioeconomic projections (residential zones)

Zone

X1

X2

X3

2
2
3
2
2
2
3
3
1
2
3
4

0
1
1
2
1
1
2
0
1
2
2
2

I
I
I
II
I
II
I
I
II
II
II
II

Number of households
Base year Target year
300
500
300
400
200
300
0
50
400
500
300
200
200
300
100
400
200
200
300
400
400
300
200
400

5. Gravity model parameters

(a) lnF = lnW , where W = interzonal impedance in minutes
Proposed
shopping
5
centre
1
5

10
2

20

20
10

4
CBD

3
5

Figure showing network and interzonal impedances

(b) Interzonal socioeconomic adjustment factors (Kij)
Zone i
1
2
3

4 (CBD)
1.0
0.9
1.0

Zone j
5 (Proposed shopping centre)
0.9
1.2
1.0

Using the information 1 to 5 calculate all target year interchange volumes and the target patronage (trips
attracted) of the two commercial zones.
Answer
Apply the calibrated trip generation models and the available land use and socioeconomic projections to
find the target year productions and relative attractiveness of the five zones. The shopping trip production
model is a disaggregated cross classification model. Considering the units of the calibrated production
rate, the contribution of each household type to the total zonal production is the product of (number of
households)*(household size)*(trips per person). Therefore for the trip producing zones 1, 2 and 3 the trip
productions are
Zone 1
500 x 2 x 0.2 = 200
400 x 2 x 0.3 = 240
300 x 3 x 0.2 = 180
50 x 2 x 0.5 = 50
P1 = 670

Zone 2
500 x 2x 0.3 = 300
200 x 2x 0.4 = 160
300 x 3x 0.3 = 270
400 x 3x 0.1 = 120
P2 = 850

Zone 3
200 x 1x 0.4 = 80
400 x 2x 0.5 = 400
300 x 3x 0.4 = 360
400 x 4x 0.5 = 800
P3 = 1640

The target year attractiveness of the two competing commercial zones is calculated via the calibrated trip
attractiveness equations as follows,
A4 = 5 x 3 + 3 x 2.5 = 22.5
A5 = 5 x 2 + 3 x 3.0 = 19.0
6

The target year interchange volumes are computed using the Gravity model with the given c = 1 and the
given Kij factors. The following trip matrix results,
Zone i

Zone j
5 (Shopping centre)
504
450
286
1240

4 (CBD)
166
400
1354
1920

1
2
3
Aj

Pi
670
850
1640
3160

The trip matrix shows that 1240 out of the 3160 daily shopping trips (39% of the total) will be attracted
by the proposed shopping centre.

3.2

Fratar model

Fratar model is a growth factor (Gi) model. It begins with base year interchange flow (Qi(b)). It considers
only the interzonal trips, i.e. trips produced and/or attracted outside the boundary of each zone are
considered. It also considers no direction, meaning Qij = Qji. The estimated target year trip generation is,
Qi(t) = Gi * Qi(b)

(3.10)

The model estimates the target year trip distribution Qij(t) which satisfies the trip balance equation,

Qi = Qix

(3.11)

Q12(b)

= Q21(b
) = 20

=
Q3
15
24

)=Q

10

23 (b)

=
)=
(b

)
(b

= 40

)
(b

Q41(b) = Q14(b) = 30

)
(b

Q1

Q32(b

Q4

4
Q43(b)

Growth
factor (Gi)
2
1
2
2
3
3
1
4
(b) Estimated growth factors
Zone i

= Q34(b
) = 35

(a) Base year trip interchange data

Fig. 3.1 An example of Fratar model inputs
7

3.2.1

Fratar Model procedure

The Fratar model procedure is an iterative process. It requires successive approximation of target year trip
generation Qi (current). Target year trip interchange volumes are computed based on anticipated growth
of the two zones at either end of each interchange. The implied estimated target year trip generated is
compiled according to,
Qi (t ) = Qix (t )

(3.12)

Then the target year trip generation is tested against current year trip generation for convergence.
Ri =

Qi (t )
Qi (current )

(3.13)

At convergence, Ri = 1. If not calculate new interzonal flow,

Qij (new) =

Qij (current ) * R j

Q (current ) * R
ix

* Qi (t )

(3.14)

Eq. 3.14 means that the expected trip generation of zone i is distributed among all zones so that a specific
zone j receives its share according to a zone specific term divided by the sum of these terms for all
competing zones x.
The target year trip generation from zone i allotted to interchange i-j resulting from the Eq. 3.14 will not
necessarily be the same as the target year trip generation from zone j allotted to interchange j-i. i.e. Qij
Qji.
But Fratar model employs only one interzonal volume estimate Qij = Qji. Therefore, the two values
should be averaged. Thus,
Qij (current ) = Q ji (current ) =

Qij (new) + Q ji (new)

(3.15)

These values are used to calculate the new adjustment factors Ri. Check whether Ri values are close to
unity. If they are not close unity Repeat the procedure to calculate Qi(current) until Ri = 1 or 1.

3.2.2 Limitations of Fratar model

1. Fratar model break down mathematically when a new zone is built (introduced) after the base year.
2. Convergence to the target year generation totals is not always possible.
3. The model is not sensitive to impedance Wij.
Example: Consider the base year trip distribution of a simple four zone system given below,
Zone i
1
2
3
4
Qj(b)

Zone j
1
0
20
30
15
65

2
20
0
10
40
70

3
30
10
0
35
75

Find the target year trip distribution.

8

4
15
40
35
0
90

Qi(b)

Gi

65
70
75
90

2
2
3
1

Answer
Use the trip balance equation Qi = Qix to calculate the base year trip generation for the four zones.
x

Zone i
1
2
3
4

Base year trip generation Qi(b)

65
70
75
90

Target year trip generation Qi(t)= Qi(b)*Gi

130
140
225
90

For the first iteration equate the adjustment factors Rj to the growth factors and the current interchange
flows to the base year interchange volumes.
To apply Eq 3.14, Qij (new) =

Qij (current ) * R j

Q (current ) * R
ix

* Qi (t ) we need,
x

Qij(current)
Zone j
2
3
20
30
0
10
10
0
40
35

Zone i
1
0
20
30
15

1
2
3
4

4
15
40
35
0

Ri
2
2
3
1

Qi(t)
130
140
225
90

From which we can have,

Qij(current)*Rj
Zone j
2
3
40
90
0
30
20
0
80
105

Zone i
1
0
40
60
30

1
2
3
4

Qij(current)*Rj
145
110
115
215

Qij(new)
Zone j

Zone i
1
0
51
117
13

1
2
3
4

2
36
0
39
33

Applying Eq 3.15, Qij (current ) = Q ji (current ) =

3
81
38
0
44

Qij (new) + Q ji (new)

2

Qij(current)
Zone j

Zone i
1
2
3
4
Qj(current)

4
15
40
35
0

00
44
99
13
156

44
00
39
42
124

99
39
00
57
194

13
42
57
00
112
9

4
13
51
68
0
we have,

Qi (current ) = Qix (current )

x

156
124
194
112

Now, apply Eq. 3.13, Ri =

Qi (t )
to calculate the target year trip generation of each zone using the
Qi (current )

results above.
Qi(current)
Ri
Zone i
Qi(t)
130
156
0.83
1
140
124
1.13
2
225
194
1.16
3
90
112
0.80
4
The factors show that the current trip generations of zones 1 and 4 are over estimated and the current trip
generations of Zones 2 and 3 are under estimated. For better estimates it is necessary repeat the process
using the latest adjustment factors Ris and the latest trip matrix as the current trip interchange volumes.
The steps are,
1. Applying Eq 3.14, Qij (new) =

Qij (current ) * R j

Q (current ) * R
ix

* Qi (t ) we have,
x

Qij(new)
Zone j

Zone i
1
0
44
108
8

1
2
3
4

2
36
0
57
35

2. Applying Eq 3.15, Qij (current ) = Q ji (current ) =

3
86
54
0
47

Qij (new) + Q ji (new)

2

Qi (t )
and applying Eq. 3.13, Ri =
we have,
Qi (current )

Zone i
1
2
3
4
Qj(current)

1
0
40
97
8

4
8
41
59
0

Qij(current)
Zone j
2
3
40
97
0
56
56
0
38
53

4
8
38
53
0

Qj(current)
156
124
194
112

Ri
0.90
1.04
1.09
0.91

We can see that the Ri values are getting closer to unity. If we do one more iteration we can have
R1 = 0.97, R2 = 0.98, R3 = 1.04, R4 = 1.00.

10