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You are on page 1of 47

Random Numbers

1.

2.

Kleber Barcia V.

Random-number generation

Random-variable generation

Chapter 2

generated.

randomness:

Frequency

test

Autocorrelation

Kleber Barcia V.

test.

Chapter 2

Uniformity

Independence.

uniform distribution with pdf:

E r

1, 0 x 1

f ( x)

0, otherwise

a b

2

2

b a

V r

12

Figure: pdf for random numbers

2 1

x

E (r ) xdx

0

2

1

Kleber Barcia V.

V (r ) x dx E r

1

x3

1 1 1 1

3 0 2 3 4 12

3

Chapter 2

method removes the potential for true randomness.

simulates, or imitates, the ideal properties of random numbers

(RN).

Fast

Replicable

and independence.

Kleber Barcia V.

Chapter 2

Middle-square algorithm

Middle-product algorithm

Constant multiplier algorithm

Linear algorithm

Multiplicative congruential algorithm

Additive congruential algorithm

Congruential non-linear algorithms

Quadratic

Blumy

Kleber Barcia V.

Shub

5

Chapter 2

Middle-square algorithm

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

0 and 1

add zeros to the left.

Kleber Barcia V.

Chapter 2

Middle-square algorithm

If x0 = 5735

Then,

Y0 = (5735)2 = 32890225

Y1 = (8902)2 = 79245604

Y2 = (2456)2 = 06031936

Y3 = (0319)2 = 101760

Y4 = (0176)2 = 030976

1.

2.

x1 = 8902

x2 = 2456

x3 = 0319

x4 = 0176

x5 = 3097

r1 = 0.8902

r2 = 0.2456

r3 = 0.0319

r4 = 0.0176

r5 = 0.3097

Small cycles

May lose the series (e.g.: X0 = 0012)

Kleber Barcia V.

Chapter 2

Middle-product algorithm

1.

2.

3.

Y0 = x0* x1

xi = digits of the center

Yi = x1*xi

xi+1 = digits of the center

zeros to the left.

Kleber Barcia V.

Chapter 2

Middle-product algorithm

Example:

Seeds x0 = 5015 y x1 = 5734

Y0 = (5015)(5734) = 28756010

Y1 = (5734)(7560) = 43349040

Y2 = (7560)(3490) = 26384400

Y3 = (3490)(3844) = 13415560

Y4 = (3844)(4155) = 15971820

Kleber Barcia V.

x2 = 7560

x3 = 3490

x4 = 3844

x5 = 4155

x6 = 9718

r1 = 0.756

r2 = 0.349

r3 = 0.3844

r4 = 0.4155

r5 = 0.9718

Chapter 2

1.

2.

3.

Y0 = a*x0

4.

Yi = a*xi

5.

Kleber Barcia V.

10

Chapter 2

Example:

If: seed x0 = 9803 and constant a = 6965

Y0 = (6965)(9803) = 68277895

Y1 = (6965)(2778) = 19348770

Y2 = (6965)(3487) = 24286955

Y3 = (6965)(2869) = 19982585

Y4 = (6965)(9825) = 68431125

Kleber Barcia V.

x1 = 2778

x2 = 3487

x3 = 2869

x4 = 9825

x5 = 4311

r1 = 0.2778

r2 = 0.3487

r3 = 0.2869

r4 = 0.9825

r5 = 0.4311

11

Chapter 2

Linear algorithm

m-1 by following a recursive relationship:

X i 1 (aX i c) mod m, i 0,1,2,...

The

multiplier

The

increment

The

modulus

the statistical properties and the cycle length, must be > 0

"mod (m)" is the residue of the term (axi + c) /m

The random integers are being generated [0,m-1], and to

convert the integers to random numbers:

Ri

Kleber Barcia V.

X i 1

, i 1,2,...

m 1

12

Chapter 2

Linear algorithm

Example:

r1 = 2/99 = 0.02

r2 = 77/99 = 0.77

r3 = 52/99 = 0.52

Kleber Barcia V.

13

Chapter 2

It arises from the linear algorithm when c = 0. The recursive

equation is:

X i 1 aX i modm,

i 0,1,2,...

ri

maximum period are:

X i 1

, i 1,2,...

m 1

m = 2g

g must be integer

a = 3 + 8 k or 5 + 8 k

where k = 0, 1, 2, 3,...

X0 = should be an odd number

Kleber Barcia V.

N = m/4 = 2g-2

14

Chapter 2

Example:

Use x0 = 17, k = 2, g = 5

Then: a = 5+8(2) = 21

and

x1 = (21*17) mod 32 = 5

x2 = (21*5) mod 32 = 9

x3 = (21*9) mod 32 = 29

x4 = (21*29) mod 32 = 1

x5 = (21*1) mod 32 = 21

x6 = (21*21) mod 32 = 25

x7 = (21*25) mod 32 = 13

x8 = (21*13) mod 32 = 17

Kleber Barcia V.

m=25 = 32

r1 = 5/31 = 0.1612

r2 = 9/31 = 0.2903

r3 = 29/31 = 0.9354

r4 = 1/31 = 0.3225

r5 = 21/31 = 0.6774

r6 = 25/31 = 0.8064

r7 = 13/31 = 0.4193

r8 = 17/31 = 0.5483

15

Chapter 2

to generate new random numbers starting at xn+1, xn+2,

xi xi 1 xi n modm,

i n 1, n 2,..., N

Xi

ri

m 1

Kleber Barcia V.

16

Chapter 2

Example:

x1 =65, x2 = 89, x3 = 98, x4 = 03, x5 = 69, m = 100

x6=(x5+x1)mod100 = (69+65)mod100 = 34

x7=(x6+x2)mod100 = (34+89)mod100 = 23

x8=(x7+x3)mod100 = (23+98)mod100 = 21

x9=(x8+x4)mod100 = (21+03)mod100 = 24

x10=(x9+x5)mod100 = (24+69)mod100 = 93

x11=(x10+x6)mod100 = (93+34)mod100 = 27

x12=(x11+x7)mod100 = (27+23)mod100 = 50

Kleber Barcia V.

r7= 23/99 = 0.2323

r8= 21/99 = 0.2121

r9= 24/99 = 0.2424

r10= 93/99 = 0.9393

r11= 27/99 = 0.2727

r12= 50/99 = 0.5050

17

Chapter 2

Quadratic:

xi 1 ax 2 bx c modm

i 0,1,2,3,..., N

m = 2g

g must be integer

a must be an even number

c must be an odd number

(b-a)mod4 = 1

X i 1

ri

m 1

Kleber Barcia V.

18

Chapter 2

Example:

xi 1 ax 2 bx c modm

i 0,1,2,3,..., N

x1 = (26*132+27*13+27)mod 8 = 4

x2 = (26*42+27*4+27)mod 8 = 7

x3 = (26*72+27*7+27)mod 8 = 2

x4 = (26*22+27*2+27)mod 8 = 1

x5 = (26*12+27*1+27)mod 8 = 0

x6 = (26*02+27*0+27)mod 8 = 3

x7 = (26*32+27*3+27)mod 8 =6

x8 = (26*62+27*6+27)mod 8 = 5

x9 = (26*52+27*5+27)mod 8 = 4

Kleber Barcia V.

19

Chapter 2

It occurs when Quadratic is:

a=1

b=0

c=0

xi 1 xi modm

2

Kleber Barcia V.

i 0,1,2,3,..., n

20

Chapter 2

Maximum Density

gaps on [0,1]

Maximum Period

numbers

to) 2b a big number

Kleber Barcia V.

Rev. 1

21

Chapter 2

Two categories:

H0: Ri ~ U[0,1]

H1: Ri ~/ U[0,1]

Test for independence:

H0: Ri ~ independently

H1: Ri ~/ independently

Mean test

H0: ri = 0.5

H1: ri =/ 0.5

or = 0.2887 with a significance level = 0.05

Kleber Barcia V.

22

Chapter 2

generators is used, it is probably unnecessary to test

spreadsheet programs, symbolic/numerical calculators, tests

should be applied to the sample numbers.

Types of tests:

actually generating any numbers

produced. Our emphasis.

Kleber Barcia V.

Rev. 1

23

Chapter 2

Kolmogorov-Smirnov test

Procedure:

1.

2.

Determine D+, D-

3.

Determine D

4.

5.

Kleber Barcia V.

[Uniformity Test]

24

Chapter 2

Kolmogorov-Smirnov test

[Uniformity Test]

0.81, 0.14, 0.05, 0.93.

Step 1:

Step 2:

R(i)

0.05

0.14

0.44

0.81

0.93

i/N

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

i/N R(i)

0.15

0.26

0.16

0.07

R(i) (i-1)/N

0.05

0.04

0.21

0.13

D- = max {R(i) - (i-1)/N}

Step 4: For a = 0.05,

Da, n = 0.565 > D

So not reject H0.

Kleber Barcia V.

25

Chapter 2

Chi-square test

[Uniformity Test]

n is the # of classes

n

2

0

Ei is the expected # of

the class ith

Oi is the observed # of

the class ith

freedom is tabulated in Table A.6

For a uniform distribution, the expected number Ei, in each class

is:

Ei

i 1

(Oi Ei )

Ei

N

, where N is the total # of observation

n

If X02>X2(; n-1) reject the hypothesis of uniformity

Kleber Barcia V.

26

Chapter 2

Chi-square test

[Uniformity Test]

Example: Use Chi-square with a = 0.05 to test that the data shown

are uniformly distributed

0.34

0.90

0.25

0.89

0.87

0.44

0.12

0.21

0.46

0.67

0.83

0.76

0.79

0.64

0.70

0.81

0.94

0.74

0.22

0.74

0.96

0.99

0.77

0.67

0.56

0.41

0.52

0.73

0.99

0.02

0.47

0.30

0.17

0.82

0.56

0.05

0.45

0.31

0.78

0.05

0.79

0.71

0.23

0.19

0.82

0.93

0.65

0.37

0.39

0.42

0.99

0.17

0.99

0.46

0.05

0.66

0.10

0.42

0.18

0.49

0.37

0.51

0.54

0.01

0.81

0.28

0.69

0.34

0.75

0.49

0.72

0.43

0.56

0.97

0.30

0.94

0.96

0.58

0.73

0.05

0.06

0.39

0.84

0.24

0.40

0.64

0.40

0.19

0.79

0.62

0.18

0.26

0.97

0.88

0.64

0.47

0.60

0.11

0.29

0.78

[0, 0.1), [0.1, 0.2), , [0.9, 1.0)

Kleber Barcia V.

27

Chapter 2

Chi-square test

[Uniformity Test]

Intervalo

Oi

Ei

Oi-Ei

(Oi-Ei)2

(Oi-Ei)2

Ei

10

-2

0.4

10

-2

0.4

10

10

0.0

10

-1

0.1

12

10

0.4

10

-2

0.4

10

10

0.0

14

10

16

1.6

10

10

0.0

10

11

100

10

100

1

0

0.1

3.4

Compared to the value of Table A.6, X20.05, 9 = 16.9

Then H0 is not rejected.

Kleber Barcia V.

28

Chapter 2

number i

[Test of Independence]

Ri+(M+1)m

M is the largest integer such that, i (M 1 )m N , where N is

the total number of values in the sequence

Hypothesis:

H 0 : rim 0,

H1 : rim 0,

approximately a normal distribution.

Kleber Barcia V.

29

Chapter 2

[Test of Independence]

r im

Z0

r

im

1 M

im

R

R

i km i (k 1 )m 0.25

M 1 k 0

im

13M 7

12(M 1 )

High random numbers tend to be followed by high ones, and vice versa.

Low random numbers tend to be followed by high ones, and vice versa.

Kleber Barcia V.

30

Chapter 2

Example

Use a = 0.05

Then i = 3, m = 5, N = 30

0.12

0.01

0.23

0.28

0.89

0.31

0.64

0.28

0.83

0.93

0.99

0.15

0.33

0.35

0.91

0.41

0.60

0.27

0.75

0.88

0.68

0.49

0.05

0.43

0.95

0.58

0.19

0.36

0.69

0.87

i (M 1 )m N

3 4 15 30

28 30

Then M = 4

Kleber Barcia V.

31

Chapter 2

Example

35

0.25

4 1 (0.27)(0.05) (0.05)(0.36)

0.1945

35

13(4) 7

0.128

12( 4 1 )

Z0

0.1945

1.516

0.1280

rejected.

Kleber Barcia V.

32

Chapter 2

Test runs up and below the mean

Test poker

Test series

Test holes

-----HOMEWORK 3 at SIDWeb-----

using the Multiplicative Congruential Algorithm. Allow user to enter

values x0, k, g

Give an example printed and the program file

Kleber Barcia V.

33

Chapter 2

from a specific distribution as inputs of a

simulation model.

random variables.

Inverse-transform

Acceptance-

Kleber Barcia V.

technique

rejection technique

34

Chapter 2

Inverse-transform technique

exponential distribution, uniform, Weibull, triangular and

empirical distribution.

Concept:

For

Generate

Find

r (0,1)

r = F(x)

r1

x:

x = F-1(r)

x1

Kleber Barcia V.

35

Chapter 2

Exponential Distribution

[inverse-transform]

r=

r=

F(x)

1 e -l x

for x 0

e lX 1 r

lX ln(1 r )

X

ln(1 r )

l

To generate X1, X2, X3

Xi =

=

=

Kleber Barcia V.

F-1(ri)

-(1/l ln(1-ri)

-(1/l) ln(ri)

Figure: Inverse-transform

technique for exp (l = 1)

36

Chapter 2

Table of Distributions

Distribution

[inverse-transform]

Cumulative

Uniform

F x x a

Weibull

F x 1 e

F x x

Triangular

Normal

Kleber Barcia V.

b a

a

a xb

x0

Inverse-Transform

xi a b a ri

x a ln 1 r

0 x 1

x 2r 0 r

2

2

x

F x 1

1 x 2 x 2 21 r

2

1 r 1

2

x z

37

Chapter 2

Exponential Distribution

[inverse-transform]

(l = 1)

i

Ri

0.1306

0.0422

0.6597

0.7965

0.7696

Xi

0.1400

0.0431

1.078

1.592

1.468

Uniform distribution

Exponential distribution

Kleber Barcia V.

38

Chapter 2

Uniform Distribution

behaves uniformly within the

range of 95 to 100 C.

Modeling the behavior of the

temperature.

[Example]

xi a b a ri

Measurements

1

2

ri

0.48

0.82

Temperature oC

95+5*0.48=97.40

99.10

3

4

5

0.69

0.67

0.00

98.45

98.35

95.00

Kleber Barcia V.

39

Chapter 2

Exponential Distribution

behaves exponentially with an

average of 3 min / customer.

Simulate the behavior of this

random variable

[Example]

xi 3 ln 1 ri

Customer

1

2

ri

0.36

0.17

Service Time(min)

3.06

5.31

3

4

5

0.97

0.50

0.21

0.09

2.07

0.70

Kleber Barcia V.

40

Chapter 2

Poisson Distribution

[Example]

follows a Poisson distribution with mean 2 pcs/hour.

Simulate the arrival behavior of the pieces to the system.

P(x)

F(x)

Random digits

0.1353

0.1353

0-0.1353

0.2706

0.4060

0.1353-0.4060

0.2706

0.6766

0.4060-0.6766

0.1804

0.8571

0.6766-0.8571

0.0902

0.9473

0.0369

e a a x

px

, x 0,1,...

x!

x

e a a i

F ( x)

i!

i 0

ri

Pieces/hour

0.8571-0.9473

Arrival

Time

0.9834

0.9473-0.9834

0.6754

0.0120

0.9954

0.9834-0.9954

0.0234

0.0034

0.9989

0.9954-0.9989

0.7892

0.0008

0.9997

0.9989-0.9997

0.5134

0.0001

0.9999

0.9997-0.9999

0.3331

10

0.00003

0.9999

0.9999-0.9999

Kleber Barcia V.

41

Chapter 2

Convolution Method

can be generated by adding other random variables

Erlang Distribution

The sum of exponential variables of equal means

(1/)

Y = x1+x2++xk

Y = (-1/k)ln(1-r1)+ (-1/k)ln(1-r2)++ (-1/k)ln(1-rk)

Where:

Y = Eri= (-1/k)ln(1-ri)

Kleber Barcia V.

42

Chapter 2

Convolution Method

The processing time of certain machine follows a 3erlang distribution with mean 1/ = 8 min/piece

Piece

1-r1

1-r2

1-r3

Process Time

0.28

0.52

0.64

6.328

0.96

0.37

0.83

3.257

0. 04

0.12

0.03

23.588

0.35

0.44

0.50

6.837

0.77

0.09

0.21

11.279

Kleber Barcia V.

43

Chapter 2

To collect empirical data:

Interpolate between observed data points to fill in the gaps

x (i -1) x x (i)

(i 1)

X F ( R) x(i 1) ai R

ai

Kleber Barcia V.

x(i ) x(i 1)

1 / n (i 1) / n

x(i ) x(i 1)

1/ n

44

Chapter 2

[inverse-transform]

Example: Suppose that the observed data of 100 repair times of a machine

are:

Interval

(Hours)

Frecuency

Relative

Frecuency

Cumulative

Frecuencia, c i

Slot, a i

0.25 x 0.5

31

0.31

0.31

0.81

0.5 x 1.0

10

0.10

0.41

5.0

1.0 x 1.5

25

0.25

0.66

2.0

1.5 x 2.0

34

0.34

1.00

1.47

Consider r1 = 0.83:

c3 = 0.67 < r1 < c4 = 1.00

X1 = x(4-1) + a4(r1 c(4-1))

= 1.5 + 1.47(0.83-0.66)

= 1.75

Kleber Barcia V.

45

Chapter 2

loading dock of IHW company is either 0, 1, or 2

x

p(x)

F(x)

0

1

2

0.50

0.30

0.20

0.50

0.80

1.00

scheme becomes:

R 0.5

0,

x 1, 0.5 R 0.8

2, 0.8 R 1.0

Kleber Barcia V.

Consider R1 = 0.73:

F(xi-1) < R <= F(xi)

F(x0) < 0.73 <= F(x1)

Hence, x1 = 1

Rev. 1

46

Chapter 2

Acceptance-Rejection technique

form, a.k.a. thinning

To generate random variables X ~ U (1/4, 1) we must:

Generate R

procedure :

Step 1. Generate R ~ U[0,1]

Step 2b. If R < , reject R,

back to step 1

no

Condition

si

output R

Acceptance-rejection technique is also applied to Poisson,

nonstationary Poisson, and gamma distributions

-----HOMEWORK 4 at SIDWeb-----

Kleber Barcia V.

47

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