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areas. For example, Chinas initiation of the SCO has helped to counter terrorist
activities in the impoverished Central Asian region. The much needed military help
is very useful to the Central Asian states in countering domestic terrorism. The
PANs expedition to the Horn of Africa in 2008 helped to rid the Somalian Coast of
pirates, keeping major shipping lines much safer. Chinas active participation in the
recent H1N1 epidemic by sharing vital information and the invention of a vaccine,
helped to prove that the country is more than willing to contribute to the betterment
of mankind. Hus pledge to commit China to reducing greenhouse gases emission
during the 2009 G20 Summit is a testament to its commitment to keeping the earth
clean. Chins desire to solve global issues is welcomed by nations around the globe.
However, domestic challenges have become serious obstacles that may hinder
Chinas long term resolution of certain global issues which may threaten its national
interests. However, while China is keen on addressing many of such issues its
policies and domestic challenges may become a hindrance to its desire to keep to
their promises. Chinas poor central-regional communications and corruption has
resulted in its failure in delivering its green promises. At the regional levels,
officials are promoted based on economic growth, rather than environmentalism. As
such, the incentives of stimulating growth outweigh that of promoting a cleaner
environment. Furthermore, the regional government tends to cover up flouts of
environment laws through the lack of enforcement or corruption. The 2005 Songhua
River incident showed local officials lack of enforcement. Chinas practical aspects
of its foreign policy may also limit its promises on global peace and security. Chinas
practical aspects of its foreign policy may also limit its promises on global peace
and security. China was involved in Africa and Central Asia based on the following.
Its oil liners which are an essential source of energy were frequently hijacked; China
claims that terrorist cells in Central Asia are assisting Uyghur separatism in Xinjiang.
Hence, China would only be involved in situations where its interests are
threatened.
Chinas rise as a global power may also be welcomed by countries which hope to
create a multi-polar world without a super power. As such it is willing to create
strategic alliances with existing global powers to realize this goal. A typical example
of such collaboration is Sino-Russian relations. With the combined efforts of the
2existing global powers, they are able to balance American power in th world. This
is the common interest of China and Russia. A significant milestone would be the
signing of the Treaty of Good Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation in 2001 and
also the establishment of SCO. Both events are aimed at improving each others
military capability and trade. Other traditional enemies of the US are also willing to
see Chinas rise as a direct balance of American influence in the world. Countries
like Iran Burma and North Korea which are labeled as the Axis of Evil by the
Americans are often ostracized by Washington. Most importantly, they view Chinas
rise as an important milestone on countering American influence.
Countries who feel Chinas economic threat may not be receptive to the dragons
rise as a global power. Chinas ever-growing economic prowess has become a major
threat to existing developed economic bodies. Especially with Chinas natural
endowments in terms of resources and mass labour, many MNCs are actually
transferring their resources from the existing developed economies into China. For
e.g., the US has been experiencing trade deficit with China, due to the influx of
Chinese goods. As a counter to this measure, Washington imposed tariffs on
imported Chinese tires, which Beijing reacted with the same response in Nov 2009.
This trade war has certainly strained Sino-American ties. In order to sustain
economic development, China has been searching for territories that are rich in
energy. As such, Sino-Japanese relationship has been strained due to competition
over the resource rich Senkaku Islands and the Spratly Islands. Therefore, Chinas
current economic prowess has become a threat to existing developed economies
who are especially feeling the pinch now during the current economic crisis. Yet, it is
the same strong economic foundation, that the current economic bodies are
dependent on China for bailing them out of their dire financial situation. However,
the existing economic crisis has shown Chinas strong economic foundation which
has attracted some of the developed economies to form economic alliances with it.
During the recent G20 Summit and the Sino-Japanese Korean summit in 2009, the
current Japanese PM coined the idea of an EU-styled Asian bloc. The Americans
asked the Chinese to purchase US Treasury bonds in the early part of 2009, as a
form of reducing its financial strains. Nonetheless, such cordial relations can only be
seen in the short run as both countries have to satisfy their domestic agendas first.
In fact, President Obama has to impose tariffs on Chinese tires as a form of
protecting the American tire industry. The current cordial Sino-Japanese relations
may not exist in the long-run, as Hatoyama can only stay in power via elections.
Furthermore, Japanese domestic politics may influence the PMs attitude towards
China.
Major Powers with significant political influence in the world may feel threatened by
Chinas rapid rise, fearing that the latter may reduce them of their influence. The
existing world order may change as China becomes stronger by the day in
International politics. This is especially felt by the West led by the day in
international politics. This is especially felt by the West, led by the USA, who feels
threatened for their influence around the world. As China becomes an important
economical benefactor to many minor nations in Africa and Latin America, its
political standing in the UN or the world may increase significantly. Chinas
formation of cliques in Central Asia through the SCO and SEA through the ASEAN+3,
has become a spread of political influence around the globe. Even traditional allies
of the US are becoming close friends of China such as Japan and Taiwan which
wants closer economic ties with the latter rather than the former. Besides having
more allies, China has also shown defiance against the US in the political arena.
These moves are seen by the US as blatant disregard of its influence in the world.
As a permanent member of the UN Security Council, China has vetoed the
Chinas rising global power has been welcomed internationally. How far do you
agree?
The rise of China is arguably one of the most important events in world politics of
the past quarter of a century. Ever since the beginning of the Reform Era in 1978,
China has been getting stronger economically and militarily. Over the past decades,
both the academic and foreign policy communities have devoted significant
attention to analyzing the specific manifestations of Chinas rise. By now 2 camps
have clearly emerged: an alarmist group that sees a strong China as a military and
economic threat and the realist group that sees stability and prosperity in the world
with a new rising China.
The PRC continues to modernize its nuclear force. Beijing has tested long-range
submarine launched missiles, capable of hitting the continental US from Chinas
littoral waters. Although Beijing remains far behind Washington in the nuclear race,
last fall the Chinese media quoted a military officer stating that the PRC had
already completely ensured that it has second strike capability in part because of
its ability to destroy American satellites. In late December President Hu jintao called
for construction of a strong Chinese Navy, one with blue water capabilities. He
told a communist party meeting that we should strive to build a powerful navy that
adapts to the needs of our militarys historical the needs of our militarys historical
mission in this new century and at this new stage. Indeed, China has been acquiring
Russian weaponry, including submarines and anti-ship missiles. Also in December
Beijing issued a military white paper, affirming the PRCs defensive intent while
announcing planned enhancements of early-warning systems, anti-missile defenses
and airstrike capabilities The International Institute for Strategic Studies figures that
PRC military outlays have trebled over the last decade, and there is no sign that
China intends to slow down. Military outlays continue to increase at double digit
rates, by 15percent last year, according to Chinas official figures. Observes Allan
Behm, formerly with Australias Minister of Defense: China is becoming more
assertive in just about every military field. Washington policymakers are getting
nervous as a result. A number of hawkish analysts believe Beijing will be Americas
next enemy. Even the Bush administration has been issuing warnings about China.
For instance, in 2005 the US Defense Department pointed with some concern at the
PRCs desire to project power beyond its own region. In 2006, the Pentagon
declared: Of the major emerging powers, China has the greatest potential to
compete militarily with the US and field disruptive military technologies that over
time offset traditional US military advantages at best US counter strategies. Dwight
Perkins of Harvard details estimates of Chinese military spending ranging between
$140billion and $280 billion in 2015 even the higher estimate is just 60percent of
what America will spend this year on military programs. However, today America
dominates every region, including East Asia. The US controls the seas next in China
and the skies above China. American forces are on station in South Korea and Japan,
along Chinas borders. The US Pacific fleet employs aircraft carriers, a form of
mobile power projection that Beijing cannot match, to patrol what is effectively an
American lake. China seeks what Washington takes for granted. For the PRC, then,
matching, let alone overtaking, the US will be a daunting task. Beijings most
notable past military asset has been manpower quantity. Much of its outlays have
been devoted to replacing outmoded weapons and professionalizing its oversize
army. The latest white paper calls the spending increase compensatory in nature,
and is designed to enhance the originally weak defense foundation. The more
effective the soldiers and sophisticated their equipment, the more money and effort
that is required. Were it not for the war in Iraq, which is draining away funding from
the Pentagons current operations and future research, America would be rushing
even further ahead. Iraq which is draining away funding from the Pentagons current
operations and future research, America would be rushing even further ahead.
Further, China today is concentrating on interests close to home. The IISS
reports:enhancements in the ground forces are concentrated on amphibious
airborne formations, which are primarily directed against Taiwan. Beijing desires to
add carriers to its navy, but analysts think such as stephighly complicated and
expensiveare unlikely before 2015 or 2020. China possesses barely 20 liquid
fuelled and land based missiles capable of reaching the US. China is developing
solid fuelled replacements, but Washingtons strategic nuclear triad long will have
far more, and more sophisticated missiles. Despite its anti-satellite test, Beijing
remains well behind the US in space welfare such as electromagnetic pulse attacks,
to help overcome American advantages. However, such strategies, while preventing
Washington from taking its superiority for granted, cannot defeat the US. To do so
would require more traditional means Concludes General Zhu Chenghu: his country
has no capability to fight a conventional war against the US. For Beijing to close
its multiple military gaps with America would cost hundreds of billions and perhaps
trillions of dollars. Although China is racing ahead economically, enhancing its
ability to spend on the military, it remains poor country. Shanghai is an impressive
city even by Western standards, but municipal per capita GDP in 2005 was
estimated to be only $17,000. Overall, Chinas per capita GDP was just $1700.
Americans was $42000. Even after the Chinas economy exceeds that of the US,
which seems inevitable in the coming years or decades, the Chinese people will
have less surplus than Americans to devote to defense. Beijing is on the rise and
already has begun to insist on being treated like a significant power. But when
asked by a Chinese government official whether the US felt threatened by the
China, the ext-Secretary of defense Donald Rumsfeld rightly responded: the answer
is no, we dont feel threatened by the emergence of China. Washingtons response
to Chinas rise will help determine whether Chinas charge onto the global stage is
smooth and peaceful, or confrontational and violent. Perhaps most important, US
policymakers should not whine. Beijing is entitled to build a larger military. And it
has far more geopolitical cause to do so than does America. In 2005, Secretary
Rumsfeld asked;Since no nation threatens China, one wonders: Why this growing
military investment But the same question could be put to Washington. The chief
threat to America today comes from transnational terrorist groups which are best
addressed by more accurate intelligence, enhanced multilateral cooperation and
increased Special Forces, not new carrier groups. Similarly, the problem of nuclear
proliferation is not readily solvable by large military forces. Rather, creative,
multilateral diplomacy, including enlistment of non-allies such as China is more
likely be effective. More traditional dangers such as conventional and nuclear
attacks on the US are largely absent. China faces a different security environment.
While the US last years ago, against Mexico, over the same period China has been
invaded by a consortium of European powers and Japan; battled the US in Korea;
fought border 160years ago against Mexico over the same period China has been
invaded by a consortium of European powers and Japan; battled the US in Korea;
fought border skirmishes against India and Russia; initiated a limited war against
Vietnam; and endured a bitter civil war and occasional clashes with the ousted
nationalists after the latter fled to Taiwan, a more nationalist Japan allied with
America; a potential unified Korea with uncertain ambitions; the emergence of a
rapidly growing and arming India; continued ties to volatile Pakistan; a mix of
cooperation and competition with Russia. No wonder Chinas defense white paper
points to growing complexities in the Asia-Pacific security environment. While the
US might prefer that the PRC not expand its military, America should understand
why Beijing might be doing so. Moreover, Washington shouldnt panic. America will
far outrange China economically and militarily fro decades. In its white paper, the
PRC sets the strategic goal of building informatized armed forces and being
capable of winning informatized wars by the end of the 21 st century. That leaves
much time to decide how to accommodate and/or counter China. Precisely how to
do so require Washington policymakers to distinguish between US interests which
are vital and which are not. There may come a time when China threatens the US
homeland or seeks hegemonic influence over Eurasia, but it is fair in the future. The
real issue today in the future. The real influence in Asia, something that matters far
more to Beijing than t Washington. Harvard Universitys Robert Ross writes:For the
rise of China to pose a direct threat to US security, China must possess sufficient
military capabilities to challenge the US security, China must possess sufficient
capability to risk war. The USA should encourage Chinas continued integration into
the larger community. That doesnt mean ignoring the lack of democracy violations
of human rights, and rising nationalism. But despite a campaign to turn China into
an enemyinternet columnist Don Feder recently charged that the PRC had a
totalitarian regimethat national has moved a world beyond where it was even
two decades ago. Chinese citizens enjoyed greater personal autonomy and much
greater prosperity. Capitalism and trade dont guarantee development of a liberal
society but engagement is more likely than isolation to yield that result. Even more
important, Washington should avoid treating the China as an enemy. Ostentatiously
attempting to organize other countries, centered around Japan, in an anti-Chinese
coalition would likely fail. Although Tokyo seems increasingly ready to adopt an
aggressive policy, most other nations in the region, including longtime US allies
Australia and South Korea, are far more interested in accommodation with Beijing.
Demanding that nations essentially choose between the US and China might yield
answers unwanted by Washington. Moreover, aggressively confronting China would
spur the Chinese to attempt to develop a countervailing coalition and more quickly
enhance their military forces. By itself, Chinas anti-satellite test is primarily of
symbolic importance. Beijing is gaining influence, but remains decades away from
matching America. Indeed, China faces substantial economic, ethnic, social
challenges, ones that must be overcome before it can become a superpower.
However, the China is soon likely to enjoy the status of a semi-superpower
between the US and the other major powers, argues Tan Xuetong of Beijings
Qianhua University. Chinas influence will continue expanding from there. Beijing
agreed to send 1000peacekeepers to Lebanon, its first such action in the middle
East. It has sought to become a more substanitla player in a region where the US
traditionally holds far more sway. At the United Nations Security Council, China cast
aide its longstanding policy of opposing sanctions against other nations. It vetoed to
impose penalties on North Korea for testing nuclear weapons.
Taipei government, Taiwanese owned factories on the mainland make more than
40percent of Chinas electronic exports. Taiwan and US officials were recently
alarmed to see the Taiwan-invested Semiconductor Manufacturing Industrial
Corporation set up shop in Shanghai to produce chips, the technology at the very
heart of computers. However, as China purchases machinery and raw materials
from its neighbours as never before, China has accompanied its new economic
leverage with diplomatic efforts designed to assure its trading partners that it offers
cooperation, not competition. To compensate neighbours for lsot jobs, China
recently announced a goglobal campaign in which CEOs of Chinese companies are
encouraged to seek investment opportunities in South-East Asia. As part of this
effort, the Bank of China has opened branches in Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore,
and soon will reopen one in Jakarta. One greatly improved bilateral relationship is
that between China and Indonesia. Earlier this year, Chinas state-owned offshore oil
company CNOOC, bought a large Indonesian oil and gas field owned by Spains
Repsol-YPF for US$ 585 million. More recently, another oil company PetroChina,
outbid four rivals to but the Indonesian assets of Devon Energy Corporation for
US$262million. China is already a leading manufacturer. Singapore, for example,
has lost more than 42000jobs to China in the last five to 10years because of Chinas
lower cost of doing business. And lower labour costs may cause multinationals in
Malaysia to relocate their assembly plants to the mainland. Prime Minister Mahathir
Mohamad has told Malaysians to stop viewing China as a black hole sucking
foreign investment away from Asean. We want to live with the fact that there is a
China and it is gping to be very prosperous, very big and economically powerful,
said Mahathir. China is leading the effort to create an Asian Monetary Fund for
regional purposes. It is working on the ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement for
ratification in 2010. Its strong support for and participation in the 10+3 summits
bringing together the ten nations of SEA with Japan, South Korea, and China have
brought unprecedented stability and prosperity to Southeast Asia. In 2009, China
and Japan have proposed setting up a common fund to help tide Southeast Asia
over the present global financial credit squeeze. Both countries have agreed to
contribute 35% each to the fund. Laruence Brahm, an American Lawyer and
entrepreneur based in Beijing and a noted author on China claims American
ideologues are truing to shift the blame oversea for what is clearly an American
economic crisis. In addition, Brahm says China really isnt competition for the US,
not anywhere near. China is just a US$10trillion economy, says conservative
Republicans gloss over the fact that America benefits hugely from China. He relates
a personal story Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji shared with him. Zhu was visiting the
US and he needed a new pair of running shoes, says Brahm, the author of the
recent biography on the premier, Zhu Rongji and the Transformation of Modern
China. He sent an aide to go buy him a pair of Nikes. The pair of running shoes
when it left Chinas ports. The aide came back and said $5. Zhu was shocked. You
mean to say our manufacturers made only $5 the premier told me sums up the
entire Sino-US relations. Much of the rest of that $130 percentage was pure profit
for Nike and the American retailers. In other words, good Sino-US relations are a
winning combination, albeit with America winning much more handsomely than the
Chinese. The fact is that American corporations and shareholders enrich themselves
by sub-contracting out to China and that Americas middle class consumers benefit
by being able to but at affordable prices at discounters like Wal-Mart or Kmart.
Since Taiwan and China began to trading with each other in the late 1980s
Taiwanese corporations have invested US$100billion on the mainland. Some
50,000Taiwanese companies employ more than 10million workers in China today.
Global Sources Chairman and Chief Executive Hinrichs say he is optimistic that
conflict can be averted, across the Taiwan Strait as well as between Beijing and
Washington Strait, as well as between Beijing and Washington: Both countries have
a lot to gain by making sure that peace happens, says Hinrichs. We have no
choice but to live in harmony. In 1997, during the Asian Financial Crisis South East
Asias seemingly unstoppable growth was abruptly brought to a halt under the
weight of countless bad loans, As the money gushed out of Asia, Washington
ordered the region to swallow its IMF medicine, then invited those venture
capitalists still standing to invest in American dotcoms attempting to froge what
was foolishly called the New Economy. In 2001, the venture capital has evaporated,
the dotcoms were bankrupt and most of the new economy has been exposed as a
fraudulent scheme abetted by greedy accountants. In America, 2009 global
investors are heading towards the exits, securities firms are bleeding the money
and the euro is worth slightly more than the dollar for the first time in two and a half
years. Can the world regain its former economic growth? Probably, but first
structural reforms are needed particularly in China, which has become one of the
worlds most stratified societies thanks ironically to the Communist partys embrace
of wealthy entrepreneurs in 2002 with jiang Zemins Three Represents China, with
its vast $US 2trillion in foreign reserves can help. Hopefully, the optimists will carry
the day. In 2006, China promised to provide well over $10billion in low-interest loans
and debt relief to Asian, African and Latin American countries over the next two
years. It invited 48Afircan countries to Beijing last month to a conference aimed at
promoting closer cooperation and trade.
For nearly 3decades, China has followed a dictum laid down by the late Deng
Xiaoping, taoguang yanghui, literally to hide its ambition and disguise its claws.
The prescription was generally taken to mean that China needed to devote its
energy to developing economically and should not seek to play a leadership role
abroad. Hu JinTao has talked about peaceful development rather than peaceful
rise. Chinas rising global power must be seen and welcomed internationally in this
context. The realists have argued for Chinas sustained economic development as
vital to worlds stability and prosperity and not treat the countrys development as
irresponsible and dangerous as the collapse of China would have far-reaching
ramifications.