June 8, 2015

RESEARCH
Equity Strategy - Model Portfolio Update

With the TRY weakening, rising interest rates and mounting

uncertainties over domestic demand, we expect public banks,
companies with high levels of FX debt and revenues with a high
level of dependence of domestic demand to exhibit a relatively
weak performance; whereas companies with FX based revenues
and a focus on exports could remain defensive. In this context, we
remove VAKBN from our Model Equity Portfolio while adding
TSKB. We remove AKSEN and MGROS, which are both
burdened by high FX debt, while adding ENKAI. Among aviation
stocks, we replace THYAO with TAVHL. Accordingly, our Model
Equity Portfolio consists of the following stocks: AKBNK,
TSKB, CIMSA, ENKAI, TAVHL and TKFEN.

Model Portfolio Performance*

Model Portfolio return since last update**

-3.5%

BIST 100 return since last update

-3.1%

Relative portfolio return since last update

-0.4%

Model Portfolio return (Ytd)

-6.5%

BIST 100 return (Ytd)

-4.4%

Relative portfolio return (Ytd)

-2.2%

* Model Portfolio's performance is calculated with an equal

weighting given to the selected stocks.
**Last update: 25 May 2015

Garanti Model Portfolio vs. BIST 100 Index

1000
800

Model portfolio

BI ST 100

600
400
200
0
12.08
04.09
08.09
12.09
04.10
08.10
12.10
04.11
08.11
12.11
04.12
08.12
12.12
04.13
08.13
12.13
04.14
08.14
12.14
04.15

The latest outcome in the political arena suggests that volatility will
continue in the Turkish equity market, which has underperformed
other emerging equity markets by 19% so far this year. When we
analyze the MSCI Turkey Indexs 1 year forward looking P/E
discount to the MSCI EM Index since 2008, we find that the
deepest discount was around 45% during the 2008-2009 global
financial crisis. Following the December 17 corruption
investigation amid political uncertainty at the end of 2013, the
discount had deepened to its current level of 26%. Therefore we
expect the BIST to deepen its discount level against its peers; at
the Friday closing (81,943), it had a 1 year forward P/E multiple of
10.2x - close to its historic average - and traded at a discount of
19% to the MSCI EM. With the index initially seeking support,
the 78,900-75,000 and 70,000 levels could emerge as a
support range.

Source: Garanti Securities

Model Portfolio Performance as of 8 June 2015

Stock

Included on

# of days in
portfolio

Nominal return

Relative Perf. vs. BIST

100 Index

12-M Target Share

Price

Upside

AKBNK

11.03.2015

86

6.7%

1.9%

9.50

22%

CIMSA

18.05.2015

18

-6.5%

1.2%

19.30

27%

ENKAI

05.06.2015

0.0%

0.0%

6.06

18%

TAVHL

05.06.2015

0.0%

0.0%

20.65

-6%

TKFEN

05.02.2015

120

-19.3%

-15.5%

7.00

53%

TSKB

05.06.2015

0.0%

0.0%

2.14

20%

Model Portfolio Performance as of 8 June 2015

Stock

Included on

# of days in
portfolio

Nominal return

Relative Perf. vs. BIST

100 Index

12-M Target Share

Price

Upside

AKSEN

25.05.2015

11

0.0%

3.2%

3.80

36%

MGROS

31.03.2015

66

0.7%

-0.6%

26.70

27%

THYAO

19.08.2014

290

39.8%

35.2%

11.90

32%

VAKBN

17.10.2014

231

1.5%

-6.4%

6.25

40%
1

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June 8, 2015

RESEARCH
Equity Strategy - Model Portfolio Update
The Turkish banking index underperformed its emerging market peers 21% Ytd and we expect the weakness to
continue after the election results, in view of the market volatility in terms of interest rates and the FX market. The main
source of pressure since the beginning of the year was the sticky deposit rates stemming from domestic and global
volatility, and it is highly likely that banking sector will face increasing funding costs in the coming period. Moreover, the
already subdued demand in the commercial and consumer loan segment will hit the banking sectors top-line. In the light
of recent developments, we shift to a defensive portfolio in our banking preferences. We add TSKB to our Model Equity
Portfolio given its more stable funding structure with no exposure to the TL deposit market. On the other hand, we keep
AKBNK in our model portfolio due to its ability to defend bottom-line given the defensive asset structure and strong
fundamentals. We believe that HALKB and VAKBN will underperform their peers in the coming period due to their high TL
funding structure and state exposure, and hence remove VAKBN from our Model Equity Portfolio. In our view, we believe
that it is highly likely that we will see more cheap and attractive levels in the banking index in the coming period, so
ISCTR will be on our radar screens in the event of a strong retreat due to its strong asset quality. Our banking coverage
trades at a 2015E P/E of 8.2x and P/BV of 1.0x, implying 12% and 24% discounts, respectively. Moreover, our banking
index discount against emerging peers had reached to 11% and 15% respectively, close to the deepest discounts seen in
the past 3 years.

MSCI TR , MSCI EM 1 year fwd looking P/E

Source: Bloomberg, Garanti Securities

1

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June 8, 2015
Model Portfolio Update

RESEARCH

Top Picks
Akbank

Current/Target Price:

Sum m ary Financials & Ratios

TL7.76 / 9.50

2014

2015E

2016E

9.00

Net Income

2,942

3,160

3,482

3,893

8.00

183,737

205,451

224,797

252,634

7.00

21,339

25,112

28,137

31,402

6.00

Loans/Deposits

105%

111%

113%

115%

5.00

NIM

4.2%

4.1%

4.2%

4.1%

Cost/Income

37%

38%

37%

37%

10.6

9.8

8.9

8.0

1.5

1.2

1.1

1.0

ROAE

13.8%

13.7%

13.1%

13.1%

ROAA

1.7%

1.6%

1.6%

1.6%

1mth

3mths

12mths

2%

3%

-3%

01.14
02.14
03.14
04.14
05.14
06.14
07.14
08.14
09.14
10.14
11.14
12.14
01.15
02.15
03.15
04.15
05.15
06.15

2013

Sh's Equity

22%

10.00

(TLm n)
Total Assets

Upside Potential:

AKBNK

BIST100

Valuation Multiples
P/BV

05 June 2015

Stock Market Data

Relative Performance:

52 Week Range (TL):

7.01 - 9.33

Market Cap (TLmn):

31,040

Average Daily Vol (TLmn) 3 mth:

256.2

YTD TL Return(%):

-9

Free float (%):

42

Cimsa

Current/Target Price:

Sum m ary Financials & Ratios

Akbank is trading with 2015E P/E of 8.9x and P/BV of 1.1x, with a
ROE expectation of 13.1%. On the other hand, in terms of P/E, the
last 5 year average premium of Akbank compared to sector is 20%,
which is currently 11%.
On the back of strong core capital ratio and asset quality, strong
funding base, cost efficiency, and ongoing shift in the asset mix in
favour of loans, Akbank is one of the most resilient banks in volatile
times. Akbanks Tier I capital ratio is at 13.2% (peers: 12.2%),
allowing the bank to grow faster than the peer averages in the
medium-term.
Following 1Q15 results, Akbank maintains its 2015YE guidance,
with the management warning of some risks, especially regarding
the NIM due to the weak currency and volatility in the interest rate
market, and also at the Opex line due to the fee repayments.
Therefore, while we maintain our expectation of no change in the
NIM, we have raised our cost growth forecast from 10% to 12%
YoY for Akbank.

TL15.15 / 19.30

2013

2014

2015E

2016E

16.00

Net Sales

954

1,094

1,183

1,291

14.00

EBITDA

236

318

331

363

12.00

Net Income

302

193

213

208

10.00

EBITDA Margin

24.8%

29.1%

28.0%

28.1%

8.00

Net Margin

31.7%

17.6%

18.0%

16.1%

P/E

6.8

10.6

9.6

9.8

EV/Sales

2.3

2.0

1.9

1.7

Valuation Multiples

CIMSA

EV/EBITDA

9.5

7.0

6.8

6.2

2.24

1.43

1.58

1.54

8%

9%

10%

10%

Dividend Yield

05 June 2015

Stock Market Data

Relative Performance:

52 Week Range (TL):

Free float (%):

3mths

12mths

-6%

-4%

19%

2,047

Average Daily Vol (TLmn) 3 mth:

YTD TL Return(%):

1mth

12.03 - 16.65

Market Cap (TLmn):

27%

18.00

(TLm n)

EPS (TL)

Upside Potential:

01.14
02.14
03.14
04.14
05.14
06.14
07.14
08.14
09.14
10.14
11.14
12.14
01.15
02.15
03.15
04.15
05.15
06.15

P/E

2.6

BIST100

Cimsa exhibited a relatively robust operating performance

compared to the sector average in 1Q15. The Company is planning
to renovate and triple the capacity at its Afyon plant, which is
expected to enter operation in 4Q16. We believe the new factory
will add value to Cimsa by boosting sales and margins. Moreover,
the Company started to step up its focus on the high margin white
cement segment.
In addition to the aforementioned factors, Cimsas regional
diversification, as well as its export capabilities, enable it to cope
with regional competition and weak domestic demand. We believe
Cimsa offers a good long term investment opportunity.
Cimsa trades at 2015E 6.8x EV/EBITDA and 407x EV/Clinker (TL/
tonnes) multiples, at 15% and 9% discounts to the sector averages,
respectively.

3
40
3

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June 8, 2015
Model Portfolio Update

RESEARCH

Top Picks
Enka Insaat

Current/Target Price:

Sum m ary Financials & Ratios

2014

2015E

2016E

6.40

12,288

12,728

14,380

14,867

5.80

EBITDA

1,951

1,929

847

2,372

5.20

Net Income

1,248

1,441

1,640

1,714

4.60
4.00

EBITDA Margin

15.9%

15.2%

5.9%

16.0%

Net Margin

10.2%

11.3%

11.4%

11.5%

16.5

14.3

12.6

12.0

EV/Sales

1.3

1.3

1.1

1.1

EV/EBITDA

8.3

8.4

19.0

6.8

0.31

0.36

0.41

0.43

1%

0%

2%

1%

1mth

3mths

12mths

0%

15%

-3%

Valuation Multiples

EPS (TL)

ENKAI

Dividend Yield

05 June 2015

Stock Market Data

Relative Performance:

52 Week Range (TL):

4.22 - 5.4

Market Cap (TLmn):

20,600

Average Daily Vol (TLmn) 3 mth:

21.2

YTD TL Return(%):

10

Free float (%):

12

Tav Havalimanlari

Current/Target Price:

Sum m ary Financials & Ratios

Enka has been an underperformer recently. The Company

underperformed the BIST-100 by 4% in the last 10 days. Following
election period, we expect Enka Insaat to remain defensive in a
volatile environment. Although the Companys backlog retreated to
US$2.43bn, following 1Q15 results, Enkas net cash position
remained firm at US$2.8bn. Iraq continue its dominance in the
backlog with 41% share. Despite the ongoing unrest in Iraq, we
understand that Enka is determined to maintain a long term
presence in Iraq and is well positioned to win further energy
contracts. The recent upward trend in oil prices is a market positive
for Enkas business regions, we therefore expect the backlog to
improve in the upcoming period. We also expect the real estate
business in Russia to continue to be a cash cow and we do not see
any major problem in the occupation rates for the rest of the year.
The Companys mainly US$ denominated business, its strong
presence in the markets it has business make the Company one of
the defensive stocks in the market.

TL22.00 / 24.20

2013

2014

2015E

2016E

21.60

Net Sales

2,595

2,648

3,184

3,326

19.20

EBITDA

1,018

1,231

1,432

1,501

16.80

336

634

689

784

14.40

EBITDA Margin

39.2%

46.5%

45.0%

45.1%

12.00

Net Margin

13.0%

24.0%

21.6%

23.6%

23.8

12.6

11.6

10.2

4.5

4.4

3.6

3.5

Valuation Multiples
P/E

Upside Potential:

TAVHL

EV/Sales
EV/EBITDA

11.4

9.4

8.1

7.7

EPS (TL)

0.93

1.75

1.90

2.16

2%

0%

4%

4%

Dividend Yield

05 June 2015

Stock Market Data

Relative Performance:

52 Week Range (TL):

1mth

3mths

12mths

2%

13%

26%
15.47 - 23.6

Market Cap (TLmn):

7,992

Average Daily Vol (TLmn) 3 mth:

10%

24.00

(TLm n)

Net Income

BIST100

01.14
02.14
03.14
04.14
05.14
06.14
07.14
08.14
09.14
10.14
11.14
12.14
01.15
02.15
03.15
04.15
05.15
06.15

P/E

18%

7.00

2013

Net Sales

Upside Potential:

01.14
02.14
03.14
04.14
05.14
06.14
07.14
08.14
09.14
10.14
11.14
12.14
01.15
02.15
03.15
04.15
05.15
06.15

(TLm n)

TL5.15 / 6.06

21.4

YTD TL Return(%):

19

Free float (%):

41

BIST100

We see TAV as a defensive name with solid fundamentals. We

believe another round of outperformance seems in the cards ahead
of likely market volatility post elections (June 7) on the back of i) the
anticipation of strong near term earnings, ii) its position as the main
beneficiary of anticipated strong demand in the sector given
attractive prices on lower oil prices and competition, iii) a less
unfavourable currency mismatch given the EUR weakness and iv)
work falling behind schedule on Istanbuls new airports.
TAV targets 6-8% total pax growth (up 8% YTD) for the 2015 full
year with an 8-10% rate of growth in pax numbers using Istanbul
Ataturk Airport (8% YTD). The Company expects to generate 1012% revenue growth (20% in 1Q15) and 12-14% EBITDA growth
(18% in 1Q15), while stating its expectation of a 5-10%
improvement in net profit (50% in 1Q15). Considering the YTD
trend, it appears that the Company is on course to meet its targets.
Our forecasts are in line with the guidance.

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June 8, 2015
Model Portfolio Update

RESEARCH

Top Picks
Tekfen Holding

Current/Target Price:

Sum m ary Financials & Ratios

TL4.57 / 7.00

Upside Potential:

2013

2014

2015E

2016E

6.40

Net Sales

3,846

4,475

4,166

4,550

5.80

EBITDA

-24

287

350

354

5.20

Net Income

-64

56

219

247

4.60
4.00

EBITDA Margin

n.m.

6.4%

8.4%

7.8%

Net Margin

n.m.

1.2%

5.3%

5.4%

n.m.

30.2

7.7

6.8

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.3

n.m.

5.5

4.5

4.5

-0.17

0.15

0.59

0.67

0%

0%

4%

4%

1mth

3mths

12mths

-5%

-13%

-21%

01.14
02.14
03.14
04.14
05.14
06.14
07.14
08.14
09.14
10.14
11.14
12.14
01.15
02.15
03.15
04.15
05.15
06.15

7.00

(TLm n)

Valuation Multiples

TKFEN

EV/Sales

Dividend Yield

05 June 2015

Stock Market Data

Relative Performance:

52 Week Range (TL):

4.54 - 6.17

Market Cap (TLmn):

1,691

Average Daily Vol (TLmn) 3 mth:

45.0

YTD TL Return(%):

In 1Q15, Toros Tarim increased its sales volume by 8% YoY,

expanding its market share by 2pp QoQ to 30%. The Company
guides 10.6% EBITDA margin for the segment in 2015, following
the high base of 15.3%.

-21

Free float (%):

43

TSKB

Current/Target Price:

Sum m ary Financials & Ratios

TL1.78 / 2.14

14,808

16,273

17,916

1.50

1,885

2,234

2,593

2,937

1.30

Loans/Deposits

70%

61%

62%

63%

1.10

NIM

2.0%

1.6%

1.8%

2.0%

Cost/Income

14%

17%

18%

20%

9.6

8.0

7.5

7.1

Sh's Equity

Valuation Multiples
P/E
P/BV

1.7

1.4

1.2

1.1

ROAE

18.1%

19.0%

17.3%

15.9%

ROAA

2.8%

2.8%

2.7%

2.6%

05 June 2015

Stock Market Data

Relative Performance:

52 Week Range (TL):

12mths

5%

19%

3,115

Average Daily Vol (TLmn) 3 mth:

Free float (%):

3mths

0%

1.41 - 1.84

Market Cap (TLmn):

YTD TL Return(%):

1mth

6.7
5
40

TSKB

12.14

1.70

12,911

11.14

439

10.14

418

09.14

391

08.14

1.90

326

07.14

2016E

06.14

2015E

05.14

2014

Total Assets

20%

2.10

2013

Net Income

Upside Potential:

04.14

(TLm n)

Tekfen Construction ended 1Q15 with a US$2.2bn backlog,

compared to the US$2.4bn backlog at the end of 2014. The
contracting segment recorded TL485mn of revenues in 1Q15,
down by 20% YoY, and a 3.8% EBITDA margin in 1Q15, down by
4.7pp YoY. The company guides for a FY15 EBITDA margin of
6.9% for the segment.

03.14

EPS (TL)

02.14

EV/EBITDA

BIST100

Despite an expected economic slowdown in Tekfen Construction's

major operating regions due to lower oil prices, we expect Tekfen
Holding to be positively affected by long-awaited project awards
and the positive impact of the fertilizer investments in 2H15.

01.14

P/E

53%

BIST100

We view TSKB as a solid banking play in the Turkish banking

space with its unique business model and low risk profile. TSKBs
defensive business model stems from its unique funding structure,
with a long-term and relatively low cost nature, with funds
channeled into the investment financing needs of the corporates
and SMEs. Thus, we think TSKBs investment bank model has a
perfect fit in the current environment of volatile interest rates and
deposit costs.
We believe rising deposit costs and the depreciation of the TL will
favour TSKB as the bank has no exposure to the deposit market or
the weak TL, meaning a high reported NIM for TSKB as the bank
lends in FX but books in TL. TSKB has no currency or duration
mismatches in its lending activities.
TSKB trades at a P/E multiple of 7.5x and a P/BV of 1.2x in its
2015E, pointing to a 21% discount and 23% premium compared to
our sector average. We think TSKB is poised for more of a rerating than other Turkish banks on the back of its higher ROEgeneration capability and relatively low risk profile.
5

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June 8, 2015
Model Portfolio Update

RESEARCH

Performance of Our Model Portfolio vs. BIST-100 (TL return)

2015

2014

15.0%

45.0%

10.0%

36.0%

5.0%

27.0%

0.0%

18.0%
-2.2%

-5.0%
-10.0%

26.4%

12.1%

9.0%

-4.4%
-6.5%
Research
Outperform List

41.7%

0.0%
BIST-100 Index

Research
Outperform List

Relative

2013

2012
70%

4%

53%

56%

-2%

-0.4%

42%

-8%

28%
14%

14%

-14%

-13%

Research
Outperform List

BIST-100 Index

-20%

0%
Research
Outperform List

Relative

2011

BIST-100 Index

Relative

2010

20%

50%

16%

10%

40%

0%

30%

-10%

Relative

73%

10%

-14%

BIST-100 Index

45%

26%

20%

-10%

-20%

15%

10%
-22%

-30%

0%
Research
Outperform List

BIST-100 Index

Relative

Research
Outperform List

BIST-100 Index

Relative

PERFORMANCE OF OUR OUTPERFORM LIST

3 m ths
TL
Our Outperform List
BIST-100 Index
Relative Perform ance

US$

0.7% -1.8%
2.0% -0.5%
-1.3%

6 m ths
TL

US$

2015
TL

US$

Since 2014

Since 2013

Since 2012

TL

TL

TL

US$

-5.8% -19.6% -6.5% -18.3% 32.5% 6.0%

-3.9% -18.0% -4.4% -16.5% 20.9% -3.3%
-2.0%
-2.2%
9.6%

US$

US$

14.4% -23.7% 98.4% 40.7%

4.8% -30.1% 59.8% 13.3%
9.2%
24.1%

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June 8, 2015
Model Portfolio Update

RESEARCH

Recommendation List
05.06.2015

Ticker

Rating

(TL)

Target
Price*

Potential

20%
46%
29%
39%
41%
20%

Close

Upside

Market Cap. Avg. Vol.

**
(US$mn)

P/E
2015E

P/BV

ROE

2016E 2015E 2016E 2015E 2016E

FINANCIALS
Banks
Akbank
Garanti
Halkbank
Isbank
Vakifbank
YKB
TSKB

Conglomerates
Akfen Holding
Dogan Holding
Koc Holding
Sabanci Holding
Sise Cam

Banks
AKBNK
GARAN
HALKB
ISCTR
VAKBN
YKBNK
TSKB

OP
OP
OP
OP
MP
OP

7.90
8.52
13.35
5.61
4.51
4.08
1.78

9.50
19.55
7.25
6.25
5.75
2.14

Ticker

Rating

Close
(TL)

Target
Price*

AKFEN
DOHOL
KCHOL
SAHOL
SISE

MP
UR
MP
OP
MP

6.50
0.66
12.25
10.05
3.47

7.15
13.90
11.90
3.70

Ticker
REIC
Emlak Konut REIC
Is REIT
Sinpas GYO
Torunlar REIC

EKGYO
ISGYO
SNGYO
TRGYO
Ticker

INDUSTRIALS
Adana Cement
Anadolu Efes
Akcansa
Ak Enerji
Aksa Enerji
Anadolu Cam
Anel Elektrik
Arcelik
Aselsan
Aygaz
Bagfas
Banvit
BIM
Bizim Toptan
Brisa
Bolu Cement
Coca-Cola Icecek
Cimsa
Dogus Otomotiv
Enka Insaat
Eregli Demir Celik
Ford Otosan
Gubretas
Indeks
Kardemir
Mardin Cement
Migros
Otokar
Petkim
Pegasus
Soda Sanayii
Tat Konserve
TAV Airports
Tekfen Holding
Turkcell
THY
Tumosan
Tofa
Trakya Cam
Trk Telekom
Trk Traktor
Tpra
Unye Cement

ADANA
AEFES
AKCNS
AKENR
AKSEN
ANACM
ANELE
ARCLK
ASELS
AYGAZ
BAGFS
BANVT
BIMAS
BIZIM
BRISA
BOLUC
CCOLA
CIMSA
DOAS
ENKAI
EREGL
FROTO
GUBRF
INDES
KRDMD
MRDIN
MGROS
OTKAR
PETKM
PGSUS
SODA
TATGD
TAVHL
TKFEN
TCELL
THYAO
TMSN
TOASO
TRKCM
TTKOM
TTRAK
TUPRS
UNYEC

Rating Kapan Target

Price*
(TL)
OP
OP
MP
OP

2.80
1.60
0.76
3.62

3.90
1.81
1.10
4.30

Rating Kapan Target

Price*
(TL)
UP
MP
MP
MP
OP
OP
UR
OP
MP
OP
MP
OP
MP
MP
MP
MP
OP
OP
OP
MP
OP
MP
OP
MP
UP
OP
MP
MP
OP
MP
MP
MP
OP
MP
OP
UR
MP
OP
N/R
MP
OP
MP

6.58
22.90
15.70
1.03
2.81
1.95
1.09
14.35
13.85
10.10
13.55
2.60
47.60
14.15
8.27
5.38
44.35
15.35
16.70
5.16
4.56
34.45
6.74
5.47
1.63
4.32
20.95
87.10
3.81
25.15
5.93
6.00
21.90
4.61
12.20
9.09
7.26
17.40
2.90
7.32
72.40
64.65
4.32

7.20
27.54
18.70
1.60
3.80
2.50
17.18
13.87
11.37
15.85
3.70
52.20
19.35
9.71
6.70
59.50
19.30
6.06
4.80
33.43
7.36
7.50
2.20
5.01
26.70
71.70
4.32
39.80
6.02
4.90
20.65
7.00
13.95
11.90
16.73
3.93
82.00
77.20
5.36

11,864
13,434
6,265
9,478
4,233
6,659
1,169

86.3
335.7
134.4
91.6
116.5
41.0
2.6

Upside Market Cap. Avg. Vol.

**
Potential (US$mn)
10%
13%
18%
7%

639
648
11,663
7,699
2,215

0.6
6.0
27.0
25.5
4.9

Upside Market Cap. Avg. Vol.

**
Potential (US$mn)
39%
13%
45%
19%

3,995
448
171
680

34.4
2.7
1.5
1.5

Upside Market Cap. Avg. Vol.

**
Potential (US$mn)
9%
20%
19%
55%
35%
28%
20%
0%
13%
17%
42%
10%
37%
17%
25%
34%
26%
17%
5%
-3%
9%
37%
35%
16%
27%
-18%
13%
58%
2%
-18%
-6%
52%
14%
31%
-4%
36%
13%
19%
24%

218
5,091
1,128
282
647
325
45
3,640
2,600
1,138
229
98
5,425
212
947
289
4,235
778
1,379
7,749
5,992
4,539
845
115
477
178
1,400
785
1,430
966
1,120
306
2,987
640
10,077
4,709
313
3,266
805
9,619
1,451
6,078
200

0.4
2.7
1.2
3.2
4.7
1.9
0.9
8.8
4.4
1.2
4.5
0.7
14.6
2.6
1.9
0.8
4.7
1.1
3.7
10.8
22.6
5.0
3.6
0.3
28.5
0.3
5.6
19.0
11.4
19.7
1.8
2.1
8.3
18.7
42.9
105.6
26.3
8.1
3.6
8.8
2.3
27.8
0.1

7.8
9.4
6.0
7.5
6.3
9.3
7.5

6.5
7.8
5.2
6.1
5.7
7.2
7.1

P/E
2015E 2016E
16.8
12.8
8.4
9.7

15.6
10.4
7.2
8.1

0.93
1.22
0.90
0.85
0.73
0.87
1.20

0.84
1.11
0.78
0.76
0.66
0.79
1.06

7.1
7.8
2.8
P/E

2015E
12.6
8.6
22.1
11.5
11.8
8.2
13.4
16.9
9.4
20.3
6.8
25.2
25.7
9.9
9.0
19.4
9.7
12.6
12.2
17.3
10.8
8.7
5.5
8.4
30.4
21.8
23.1
8.8
10.1
24.0
13.2
7.7
14.1
7.1
17.7
11.7
9.6
13.5
10.7
7.7

14.0%
14.9%
16.2%
13.2%
12.2%
11.5%
15.9%

Adj.NAV
(TLmn)

Prem. / Disc.
to adj. NAV

2,831
32,267
30,400
6,752

-40%
-4%
-33%
-13%

P/E
EV/EBITDA
2015E 2016E 2015E 2016E
8.0
17.1
2.9

13.6%
13.4%
15.9%
13.5%
12.1%
9.7%
17.3%

7.3
13.7
29.0
13.4

P/BV
Trailing

6.5
7.7
22.4
6.8

EV/EBITDA

1.2
1.0
0.4
0.5
EV/Sales

2016E 2015E 2016E 2015E 2016E

11.0
9.2
17.6
10.5
57.2
10.8
8.0
5.7
12.2
11.8
9.4
13.5
4.6
20.8
18.9
9.0
7.2
16.1
10.0
12.0
12.1
13.0
10.0
7.2
4.9
7.5
22.1
24.6
17.8
6.9
8.8
18.1
12.0
6.8
11.5
6.5
14.9
9.7
8.1
12.0
8.8
6.8

9.5
7.3
8.5
7.9
12.7
9.0
5.0
7.1
8.4
12.4
8.1
12.9
5.6
16.5
7.4
8.2
6.5
10.6
6.9
15.1
7.1
9.9
4.1
8.5
5.0
6.1
9.6
13.6
9.7
6.7
6.5
13.4
8.3
4.5
5.7
7.4
11.6
7.5
5.3
10.8
7.9
5.4

7.9
7.5
7.5
7.2
10.3
7.4
4.6
6.7
7.7
10.6
8.0
9.5
4.6
13.5
6.3
7.3
5.8
9.0
6.2
6.1
6.8
8.1
3.7
7.2
4.6
5.6
8.7
14.4
7.7
5.5
5.7
11.8
7.8
4.5
5.4
6.7
9.8
5.8
4.8
9.7
6.7
5.1

6.9
2.2
1.5
2.1
2.1
1.5
0.9
0.6
0.9
2.3
0.5
1.6
0.4
0.8
0.2
1.6
2.2
1.9
1.9
0.9
1.4
1.1
0.7
0.2
1.2
1.9
0.6
1.7
0.7
0.8
1.5
0.9
3.4
0.4
1.8
0.9
1.7
1.2
1.0
1.6
0.6
1.7

1.2
2.2
1.3
1.9
1.8
1.4
0.9
0.6
0.8
2.0
0.4
1.3
0.3
0.7
0.2
1.5
1.7
1.6
1.8
1.1
1.3
0.9
0.6
0.2
1.0
1.7
0.5
1.8
0.6
0.7
1.4
0.8
3.2
0.3
1.7
0.8
1.5
0.9
0.9
1.5
0.5
1.5

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RESEARCH

Disclaimer

Model Portfolio stock picks have been selected among equities with an Outperform (OP)
recommendation by the Research department, considering both long term financial data based
company analysis and short term expectations. The Model Portfolio revision report sets out the reasons
why a stock may be promoted to the portfolio or demoted from it; a stocks entry to or exit from the
Model Portfolio does not imply that its long term recommendation has been changed. The Model
Portfolio is a virtual portfolio based on the equally weighted cumulative performance of the stocks it
contains. Therefore, any changes made to and within the Model Portfolio may not necessarily
correspond with investors risk-reward preferences.
This document and the information, opinions, estimates and recommendations expressed herein, have been
prepared by Garanti Securities Research Department, to provide its customers with general information
regarding the date of issue of the report and are subject to changes without prior notice. All opinions and
estimates included in this report constitute our judgment as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
This document and its contents do not constitute an offer, invitation or solicitation to purchase or subscribe to
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contents form the basis of any contract, commitment or decision of any kind.
Investor who have access to this document should be aware that the securities, instruments or investments to
which it refers may not be appropriate for them due to their specific investment goals, financial positions or risk
profiles, as these have not been taken into account to prepare this report. Therefore, investors should make
their own investment decisions considering the said circumstances and obtaining such specialized advice as
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from sources believed to be reliable. However, Garanti Securities cannot guarantee the accuracy, adequacy, or
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account of this report.
The market prices of securities or instruments or the results of investments could fluctuate against the interests
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investor. Indeed, in the case of some investments, the potential losses may exceed the amount of initial
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Thus, before undertaking any transaction with these instruments, investors should be aware of their operation,
as well as the rights, liabilities and risks implied by the same and the underlying stocks. Investors should also be
aware that secondary markets for the said instruments may be limited or even not exist.
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Definition of Stock Ratings

OUTPERFORM (OP)

The stock's return is expected to exceed the return of the BIST100 over the next 12 months.

MARKET PERFORM (MP) The stock's return is expected to be in line with the BIST100 over the next 12 months.
UNDERPERFORM (UP)

The stock's return is expected to fall below the return of the BIST100 over the next 12 months.

RESEARCH
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