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p k (1 p) n k ( p (1 p ))n 1
k
k 0
P( X k )
1
P ( X k 1)
n k
p (1 p ) n k
n!(k 1)!(n k 1)! p (n k 1) p
k
1 (1)
n k 1
k!( n k )!n!(1 p )
k (1 p )
n k 1
p
(1 p )
k 1
n k
p (1 p ) n k
n!(k 1)!( n k 1)! p k (1 p ) n k
(k 1)(1 p )
k
1
k
!
n
1
n k 1
(n k ) p
k
!
(
n
k
)!
n
!
p
(
1
p
)
n k 1
p
(1 p )
k 1
(2)
(1) (n k 1) p k kp
k p( n 1)
(2) (k 1)(1 p) np kp
k p (n 1) 1
p(n 1) 1 k p(n 1)
if p(n 1) , k = p(n+1)-1 or p(n+1)
if p(n 1) , k = [ p(n+1) ]
3!
4!
0.43 0.6
0.43 0.62 0.43 (1 3 x0.6 6 x0.36)
2!
2!2!
= 4.96 x 0.43
(2) Four out of seven games :
P ( A wins ) 0.44
4!
5!
6!
0.4 4 0.6
0.44 0.6 2
0.4 4 0.63
3!
3!2!
3!3!
2-25 The probability of being dealt a royal straight flush (ace, king,
queen, jack, and ten of the same suit) in poker is about 1.3x10-8.
Suppose that an avid poker player sees 100 hands a week, 52
weeks a year, for 20 years.
a. What is the probability that she never sees a royal straight
flush dealt?
b. What is the probability that she sees two royal straight flushes
dealt?
100 x 52 x 20 = 104000
(a) ( 1.3 x 10-8 )104000 = 0.9987
103998
104000
1 1.3 x10 8
(1.3 x10 8 ) 2 9 x10 7
2
(b)
2-28 Let p0, p1, , pn denote the probability mass function of the
Pk
Pk 1
Pk
(n k 1) p
Pk 1
kq
k = 1, 2, , n
n k nk
p q
( n k 1) p
k
n k 1 n k 1
kq
p q
k 1
( n k 1) p
Pk 1
kq
k = 1, 2, , n
P( X x)
Pk 1
k
k = 1, 2, , n
x e
x!
Pk
k e
(k 1)!
Pk 1
k!
k 1 e k
Pk
Pk 1
k
1 &
k
Pk
1
Pk 1
k !
1 k
if , k = or -1
if , k = []
1 1
tan 1 ( x)
2
- x
1 1
tan 1 ( x)
2
- x
1 1
tan 1 x 0
x 2
1 1
tan 1 x 1
x 2
lim
(2) F ( x)
1
1
0, x. F(x)
1 x2
1 1 1
lim tan x F ( x0 )
(3)
x x0 2
F(x)
(b) f ( x) F ( x)
1
1
1 x2
dx 0.1
(c) a
1 x2
1
1
0 .1
tan ( x )
1
( tan 1 a ) 0.1
2
1 1
tan 1 a ( )
2 10
a 3.078
,- x
1
( )
2
n
( n 1)!
( )
n 1
2
2n 1 (
)!
2
Gamma function
(t )
e y y t 1dy
y
e dy e y 0 1
(a)
(1)
(b)
( x 1)
e y y x dy
y x 0 ( e y ) xy x 1dy
0
e y y x 1dy
= x (x)
(c) ( n) ( n 1)( n 1)
= ( n 1)(n 2)( n 2)
=
= (n 1)(n 2)3 2 1 (1)
= ( n 1)!
1
2
Pf: (1) n = 1, ( ) .
(2) n = k (k is an odd integer.)
k
(k 1)!
( )
k 1 .
2
2 k 1 (
)!
2
(3) n = k + 2.
k 1
by (b ) k
k2
k
k
k (k 1)!
(
) ( 1)
( )
x 2
k 1
2
2
2 2
k 1 k 1
22
(
)!
2
2
( k 1)!
k 1
2k 1 (
)!
2
By (1)(2)(3) ,.
x2
e 2 dx
as
that of showing
x2
2 dx
y2
2 dy
= 2
x2
1
e 2 dx 1
2
i.e. claim:
x2
e 2 dx
Sol :
Let
x2
e 2 dx
x2
2
x2
e 2 dx
dx
y2
2 dy
( x y )
2
dxdy
Let X r cos
Y r sin
dxdy rdrd
0 0
r 2
e 2 rd dr
= 2 r e
0
=
r 2
2 e 2
r 2
2 dr
= 2
x2
e 2 dx
x2
1
e 2 dx 1
2
2-57
X ~ N ( , 2 ) and Y aX b , where a<0 , show that Y ~ N (a b, a 2 2 )
Sol:
X ~ N ( , 2 )
Y aX b, a 0
f X ( x)
f Y ( y)
1
2
1
2
X=
Y b
,
a
1
a
( x ) 2
2 2
y b
)
a
2 2
1
a
( y ( b a )) 2
1
2 a
2 a 2 2
Y ~ N ( a b, a 2 2 )
2-58
If U is uniform on [0,1] , find the density of
Sol:
U ~uniform[0,1]
f U (u ) 1 , Y= U
P (Y y ) P ( U ) y ) P (U y 2 ) y 2
f Y ( y ) (y)=2y
, 0 y 1
2-60
Find the density function of Y= e Z , where Z ~ N ( , 2 ) .This is called the
lognormal density, since log Y is normally distributed.
Sol:
Z~N(,)
Let Y= e Z , Z= ln Y ,
1
f Y ( y ) f Z (ln y ) y (y)=
1
y
1
2
(ln y ) 2
2 2
1
y
ln x
2
= 2 y exp(( 2 2 ) )
0 x , , 0
2-63
Suppose that follows a uniform distribution on the interval
[
, ].Find the cdf and
2 2
density of tan .
Sol:
~U[
f ( ) =
, ]
2 2
1
, ]
2 2
2
2
x
2-67
The Weibull cumulative distribution function is F ( x) 1 e
( x )
x 0,>0,>0
(a) Find the density function
(b) Show that is W follows a Weibull distribution , then
X= (W
f ( x ) e
x
( )
(b) X= (W
W (x)
( )
x
1
( ) 1 x 1e , x 0,>0,>0
, X ~ Weibull ( , )
1
1
x
f X ( x) (x ) 1 e
(c)
x
(
)
?
F Z ( z ) z F W (w) 1 e
let z= 1 e ( )
1
x
e x ~ exp(1)
w
( )
1-Z= e ( )
ln(1 z ) ( ) w
( ln(1 z ))
let W=
then X ~ Weibull ( , )
( ln U )