09.06.

2015

HowRussiaCouldAnnextheArcticDefenseOne

HowRussiaCouldAnnextheArctic
ByDuncanDepledge
March23,2015

TensionshaveincreasedanotchintheArcticwiththenewsthattheRussianshavestartedamajormilitary
exerciseintheregion.Nearly40,000servicemen,41warshipsand15submarineswillbetakingpartindrillsto
makethemcombatreadyamajorshowofstrengthinaregionthathaslongbeenanareaofstrategicinterest
toRussia.
RussiamightbereshapingnationalbordersinEuropeasitreassertsitsgeopoliticalinfluence,buttheequivalent
bordersintheArctichaveneverbeenfirmlyestablished.Historicallyithasprovenmuchharderforstatesto
assertsovereigntyovertheoceanthanoverland,evenincaseswherewatersareicecoveredformostoftheyear.
Forcenturiestheextenttowhichanationstatecouldcontrolitscoastalareaswasbasedonthesocalledcannon
shotruleathreenauticalmilelimitbasedontherangeofacannonfiredfromtheland.Butthischangedafter
WorldWarII,leadingtotheUnitedNationsLawoftheSeaConvention(UNCLOS)in1982.
UnderUNCLOS,everysignatorywasgiventherighttodeclareterritorialwatersupto12nauticalmilesandan
exclusiveeconomiczone(EEZ)ofupto200forcommercialactivities,suchasfishingandoilexploration.
SignatoriescouldalsoextendtheirsovereigntybeyondthelimitsofthisEEZbyuptoanadditional150nautical
milesiftheycouldprovethattheircontinentalshelvesextendedbeyond200nauticalmilesfromtheshore.

Orderlysettlement
ItisquitecommontoreadaboutascramblefortheArcticinwhichthestatesconcernedDenmark,Norway,
Canada,RussiaandtheUSracetocarveuptheregionbetweenthemselves.Infact,thisisnotavery
accuratedescription.
Therearetwodimensionstodevelopmentsintheregiononelegalandtheotherpolitical.Inlegalterms,these
fivelittoralstateshavesoughttouseUNCLOStoestablishbordersandasserttheirprimacyovermuchofthe
ArcticOceanandtheseabedbelow(withtheexceptionoftheUS,whichisyettoratifytheconvention).
CanadaandRussiahavealsousedthespecialprovisionsprovidedbyArticle234ofUNCLOSrelatingtothe
righttoregulateovericecoveredwaterstostrengthentheirauthorityoveremergingArcticshippingroutes
(theNorthwestPassageandtheNorthernSeaRoute).
In2008thefivestatesissuedtheIlulissatDeclaration,committingtotheorderlysettlementofanypossible
overlappingclaimsusingthelegalframeworkprovidedbythelawofthesea.Thishasbeenreflectedinthe
continentalshelfclaimstheyhavesubmittedtotheUNoverthepast15years:Russia(2001),Norway
(2006),Canada(2013)andDenmark(2014).
Thesesubmissionsareallclaimsforanextensionofexclusiverightstocontinentalshelvesbeyond200nautical
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HowRussiaCouldAnnextheArcticDefenseOne

milesfromeachlandborder.ThisleavesasmallareainthecentralArcticOceanunclaimedbutalsoraises
issuesaboutvariousterritorieswheremorethanonestatehaspostedaclaim(seegraphicbelow).
Amongtheclaimants,RussiahasbeenaskedbytheUNtosubmitfurtherscientificevidenceinsupportofits
case.Thishasnotyethappenedtotheotherstates,butsinceitwilltaketimefortheirclaimstobeassessed,this
mayyetchange.UntiltheUSratifiesUNCLOS,itcantsubmitaclaim.

MapviaIBRU,DurhamUniversity.

Insecureborders
Legalprovisionsonlygosofar.Thequestionremains:whathappensiftheArcticstatesbecomemoreassertivein
thedelimitationoftheirnationalborders?
CanadaandDenmarkhavemadesignificantcommitmentstobackinguptheirclaims,includingdevelopingnew
securitystrategies.In2012DenmarkestablishedaspecialisedmilitarycommandtopoliceitsArcticterritories,
forinstance.Butoverthelastdecade,itisRussiathathasadvancedthemostsignificantplansforbuildingupits
securityforcesintheregionevenbeforeitsmostrecentexercisesbegan.
Inmaterialterms,RussiacurrentlyhasthemosttogainfromindustriallydevelopingitsArcticzone.TheRussian
Arcticcontainssignificantreservesofhydrocarbons,diamonds,metalsandothermineralswithanestimated
valueofmorethan$22.4tn(15.2tn).Theareaisalreadyamajorproducerofrareandpreciousmetalsand
importantoilandgasfields.
ThismakesiteasytoseewhytheKremlinannouncedin2008thatitwillusetheArcticzoneasastrategic
resourcebaseforthesocioeconomicdevelopmentofRussiainthe21stcentury.In2013theKremlinfurther
observedthatsuchdevelopmentwouldbeheavilydependentonforeigninvestment,technologyandexpertise.
Yetthisapparentopennesstointernationalbusinessinterestshasbeenaccompaniedbyanintensesenseof
insecurityaboutRussiamaintaininginfluenceandauthorityintheregion.ItiswaryofaWesternblocforming
withintheArcticCouncil(thefivelittoralstatesplusFinland,IcelandandSweden)andhaspreferredtoengage
theotherArcticstatesonabilateralorregionalbasis.Russiaisparticularlyconcernedaboutthepotentialforthe
EUandNATOtobecomemoreactiveinArcticaffairs,giventhatalloftheotherArcticstatesaremembersofone
orbothoftheseorganizations.

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VladimirPutinhasspokenpubliclyabouttheneedtokeeptensionstoaminimumintheArctic,whileembarking
onitsextensivemilitaryandsecurityprogramintheregionatthesametimenotleastestablishinganewArctic
strategiccommandlastDecember.
TheKremlinshowedinitsresponsetotheGreenpeace30incident,inwhichenvironmentalactiviststriedto
seizeaRussianoilplatformin2013,thatitwillnottolerateanythreattoitseconomicactivitiesintheArctic,nor
allowanyprecedentthatmightundermineitsauthorityoverwhatitessentiallyregardsasitsterritorialwaters.

Futureuncertainties
RussiawillsubmitanewclaimforanextensionofitsEEZintotheArcticOceantotheUNin2015(encompassing
anareaofroughly1.2msqkm).AlreadystateofficialsinRussiaarepositioningthesituationasatestofwhether
theinternationalscientificcommunitywillacceptRussianscience.
AsecondrejectionofRussianclaimsintheArcticmightfurtherfeedRussianconcernsaboutbeingkeptdown
andencircledbyWesternrivals.Ontheotherhand,ifRussiasclaimisaccepted,therestoftheinternational
communitymightquiterightlybecomeconcernedabouthowtheKremlinwillexertitsauthoritywithinsuch
significantlyexpandedmaritimebordersintheArctic.ThisisbecauseRussiawilllikelycontinueusingArticle
234ofUNCLOStoenableittoexercisecompleteauthorityinitsextendedEEZ,withlittleregardfortherightto
innocentpassage.
ThedeteriorationinRussiasrelationswiththeWestisonlylikelytoupthestakesfortheKremlinwhenitcomes
tosettlingitsmaritimebordersintheArctic.RussiahasremainedengagedintheArcticCouncilandhas
repeatedlycalledfortheArctictoremaininsulatedfromthefalloutfromUkraine.Yetinthecomingyears,
RussiasneighborsarelikelytoremainwaryabouthowexactlytheKremlinplanstonegotiateandsecureits
bordersalongitsArcticfrontier.
ByDuncanDepledge
March23,2015
http://www.defenseone.com/threats/2015/03/howrussiacouldannexarctic/108229/

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