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(c) Population normally distributed, 2 known, sample size less than 30.
Normal distribution
Population not normally distributed, 2 unknown, sample size greater
than 30.
Because the sample size is large you can invoke the CLT and use the fact
that s2 is a consistent estimator of 2 to justify using the normal
distribution.
(d)
2.
$265,000,
$50,000,
150, ~
:
250,000; :
250,000
Rejection region:
250,000
1.645
50,000
150
256,715.68
Thus Type II error (Probability of not rejecting H0 when it is false):
256,715.68|
260,000
256,715.68 260,000
0.8
0.2119
50,000 150
1
0.7881
The power of the test gives the probability of correctly rejecting the null
hypothesis when it is false.
(b)
Under
250,000
1 power
under 260,000
250,000 260,000
$256,715.68
3.
. ,
,
10
6.9514
17.9 1.833
10
17.9 4.029
13.871,21.929
(b)
Everything else the same, we could not construct a confidence interval in the
same way as in (a) since the t distribution is only valid if the underlying
distribution is normal. This problem could be overcome by obtaining a larger
sample size and then making use of the central limit theorem (and replacing
by s).
4.
EXCEL summary statistics and histogram for distance traveled indicate non
normality. The distribution is skewed to the right, the median is much less than
the mean, and the sample mean is only 1.35 standard deviations from zero:
Odometer (km)
Mean
Standard Error
Median
Mode
Standard Deviation
Sample Variance
Kurtosis
Skewness
Range
Minimum
Maximum
Sum
Count
78560.83
5384.86
67980
147000
58246.19
3392618896
3.426
1.528
315597
403
316000
9191617
117
Frequency
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
20000
60000
100000
140000
180000
Odometer (kms)
220000
260000
300000
While the population distribution seems nonnormal, the sample size is large
enough to invoke the CLT and hence to assume the sample mean is
approximately normally distributed.
In Question 2 of the Week 8 we assumed known but here we consider the
more likely situation where it is unknown and we replace by s as calculated
by EXCEL. The 95% confidence interval is given by
5.
58,246
117
78561 10,554
68,007,89,115
78,561
1.96
It is known that 80% of people suffering from a particular disease are cured
by a certain medication. Test the claim of the developers of a new
medication that their product is more effective in curing the disease, using a
5% significance level and a random sample of 400 people with the disease
where 330 are cured by using the new medication. (Hint: Use the normal
approximation and ignore the continuity correction.)
:
0.8,
0.8,
400,
0.05 &
0.825
Therefore we can use the normal approximation to the binomial & under H0:
1
0.8 0.2
~
,
~ 0.8,
400
So, ignoring the continuity correction, calculate the empirical significance
level or pvalue:
0.825 0.8
1.25
0.1056
0.825
0.8 0.2 /400
Because pvalue > (0.1056 > 0.05) we do not reject H0 & conclude there is not
enough evidence to support the developers claim of a more effective cure.
(Alternatively rejection region: z >1.645 or 0.8329
6.
SIA: Crime statistics (Note: You can check your answers in the NSW
BOCSAR report on driving under the influence of cannabis used in
Question 4, Week 9.)
A recent study of driving under the influence of cannabis, reports a
confidence interval for the population proportion of people who have ever
used cannabis as (0.539, 0.627). This is based on a sample of 502.
(a)
Since the confidence interval for the population proportion is always centered
on the point estimate, is always the middle point, i.e.
0.539 0.627
0.583
2
(b)
Assuming
~
0.583
/
.
and
/
0.0220
0.044
0.022
2.00
0.583 0.417
502
implying /2 =0.0228 & hence =0.0456 or 4.56%.
(Report indicates =5% with the difference due to rounding.)
7