Market Pulse Survey, June 2015

1
MARKET PULSE
June 2015
Survey Methodology
Monthly online survey of 300+ CA REALTORS
Respondents are asked about their last closed
transaction and business activity in their market area

for the previous month and the last year.
LASTTRANSACTION
Over
Below
Jul-14
Sep-14
More than 4/10TransactionsClosed BelowAsking Price

At
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
Q: Did your last closed transaction sell over, at or below asking price?
SERIES: Market Pulse Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS
Jun-15
May-15
Apr-15
Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Aug-14
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
0%
Premium Paid OverAsking Price Increased

Average
14.0%
12.0%
11%
10.0%
8.0%
7.3%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
Q: At what percentage was your last closed transaction sold over asking price?
Jun-15
May-15
Apr-15
Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
0.0%
Premium Paid OverAsking Price Stable

12.0%
Average
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
4.0%
6.7%
7.5%
7.9%
2014-Q2
2014-Q3
10%
10%
10%
2014-Q4
2015-Q1
2015-Q2
2.0%
0.0%
2014-Q1
Q: At what percentage was your last closed transaction sold over asking price?
Discount on Asking Price Increases

0.0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
-6.0%
-8.0%
-10.0%
-12.0%
-14.0%
Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- DecFeb- Mar- Apr- MayJan-15

Jun-15
14
14
14
14
14
15
15
15
15
Average -5.8% -5.6% -5.8% -6.3% -12% -13% -11% -11% -11% -11% -7.0% -11%
Jul-14
Q: At what percentage was your last closed transaction sold below asking price?
Discount on Asking Price Decreased Slightly

Average
2014-Q3
2014-Q4
2015-Q1
-10%
-11%
2015-Q2
0%
-2%
-5.7%
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%
-12%
Q: At what percentage was your last closed transaction sold below asking price?
-10%
65% of Properties Receiving MultipleOffers

80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
Q: How many offers did the seller in your last closed transaction receive?
Jun-15
May-15
Apr-15
Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
0%
10
More Properties Receiving MultipleOffers

70%
69%
66%
61%
60%
58%
60%
67%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2014-Q1 2014-Q2
2014-Q3
Q: How many offers did your last closed transaction receive?

2014-Q4
2015-Q1
2015-Q2
11
Number of Offers Received Flat

Average
4.0
3.5
2.8 2.9
2.7
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0

Jun-15
May-15
Apr-15
Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
0.0
Jan-14
0.5
12
Average Number of Offers Increased

3.5
3.0
3.1
Average
2.8
3.1
2.5
2.5
2.4
2.6
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2014-Q1 2014-Q2
2014-Q3
2014-Q4

2015-Q1
2015-Q2
13
Proportion of Properties with Listing Price

Reductions Declining
35%
33%
30%
25% 26%
25%
20%
28%
29%
31% 31% 31%

28%
23%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Q: Were there any listing price reductions before escrow opened in your last closed transaction?
25%
21%
14
Proportion of Properties with Listing Price

Reductions Declining
35%
Average
30%
25%
20%
31%
15%
10%
20%
25%
28%
25%
5%
0%
2014-Q2 (June)
2014-Q3
2014-Q4
2015-Q1
Q: Were there any listing price reductions before escrow opened in your last closed transaction?
2015-Q2
15
% of Previous Renters Flat

60%
50%
38% 37%
37%
40%
30%
20%
10%
Q: Was the buyer of your last closed transaction a renter immediately prior to purchasing the property?
Jun-15
May-15
Apr-15
Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
0%
16
Proportion of Previous Renters Slightly Down

50%
40%
46%
40%
34%
40%
40%
38%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2014-Q1 2014-Q2
2014-Q3
2014-Q4
2015-Q1
2015-Q2
Q: Was the buyer of your last closed transaction a renter immediately prior to purchasing the property?
17
Fewer Sellers Becoming Renters

30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
Q: Did the seller of your last closed transaction become a renter immediately after selling the property?
Jun-15
May-15
Apr-15
Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
0%
18
Fewer Sellers are Becoming Renters

25%
20%
19%
21%
18%
20%
15%
15%
15%
10%
5%
0%
2014-Q1 2014-Q2
2014-Q3
2014-Q4
2015-Q1
2015-Q2
Q: Did the seller of your last closed transaction become a renter after selling the property?
19
Share of First-time Buyers Fluctuating

45%
% First-time Buyers
Long Run Average
40%
35%
31%
30%
31% 30%
25%
24%
20%
15%
10%
5%
Q: Was the buyer of your last closed transaction a first-time buyer?

Jun-15
May-15
Apr-15
Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
0%
20
Share of First-Time Buyers Declining

40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
32%
28%
30%
2014-Q2
2014-Q3
35%
32%
30%
2015-Q1
2015-Q2
10%
5%
0%
2014-Q1
Q: Was the buyer of your last closed transaction a first-time buyer?

2014-Q4
21
Majority Purchases are Primary Residences

Primary residence
Vacation home
Other
13%
18%
Q: What was the intended use of the property?

Jun-15
Apr-15
Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
16%
79% 75%
74%
May-15
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Investment
22
Majority Purchases are Primary Residences

Primary residence
100%
90%
80%
Investment
Vacation home
Other
3%
6%
6%
4%
4%
18%
16%
16%
16%
5%
18%
16%
75%
75%
76%
78%
75%
76%
2014-Q1
2014-Q2
2014-Q3
2014-Q4
2015-Q1
2015-Q2
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Q: What was the intended use of the property?

23
International Buyers Fluctuate

% International Buyers
Long Run Average
12%
10%
7.9%
8%
6%
6.1%
4%
4.7%
3.2%
2%
Q: Was the buyer an international client (one who was not a citizen or permanent resident of the U.S.)?
Jun-15
May-15
Apr-15
Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
0%
24
International Buyers Up Slightly

10.0%
8.5%
8.0%
6.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.6%
5.8%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
2014-Q1 2014-Q2
2014-Q3
2014-Q4
2015-Q1
2015-Q2
Q: Was the buyer an international client someone from the U.S. who purchased a property for a vacation or
investment purposes?
25
MARKET CONDITIONS
26
Floor Calls from Potential Clients Declining

Last Month
Down
Flat
Up
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
Jun-15
May-
Apr-15
Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
0%
May-
10%
Q: Compared to last month, the number of floor calls from potential clients in your market area this month was
27
Floor Calls from Potential Clients Up

Last Month
Down
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
33%
24%
21%
Flat
Up
20%
35%
46%
22%
34%
44%
52%
36%
31%
45%
33%
30%
44%
34%
2014-Q1 2014-Q2
18%
2014-Q3
2014-Q4
2015-Q1
2015-Q2
Q: Compared to last month, the number of floor calls from potential clients in your market area this month was
28
ListingAppointments/Presentations toClients
Decrease
Down
Flat
Aug-14
Oct-14
Last Month
Up
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
Q: Compared to last month, the number of listing appointments and presentations to clients in your
market area this month was
Jun-15
May-15
Apr-15
Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Sep-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
0%
29
ListingAppointments/Presentations toClientsUp
Last Month
Down
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
44%
32%
33%
Flat
26%
Up
21%
34%
56%
40%
24%
27%
2014-Q1
2014-Q2
37%
37%
2014-Q3
34%
31%
45%
2014-Q4
26%
35%
2015-Q1
17%
2015-Q2
Q: Compared to last month, the number of listing appointments and presentations to clients in your market
area this month was
30
Open HouseTraffic Declining

Last Month
Down
Flat
Up
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
LastYear
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Q: Compared to last month/year, open house traffic in your market area this month was
31
Open HouseTraffic Up
Last Month
Down
100%
70%
50%
36%
37%
50%
21%
90%
38%
37%
34%
20%
16%
27%
38%
70%
49%
40%
31%
0%
40%
30%
LastYear
10%
27%
52%
24%
22%
29%
21%
35%
46%
21%
49%
26%
0%
Q: Please indicate the movement of each of the following in your market area compared to last month & last
year Open house traffic
62%
25%
20%
19%
29%
25%
50%
27%
42%
80%
60%
31%
37%
40%
10%
25%
55%
60%
30%
Up
100%
90%
80%
Flat
18%
32
Auctions Steady
Last Month
80%
Down
Flat
Up
60%
40%
20%
0%
Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15
LastYear
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14
Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15
Q: Compared to last month/year, the number of auctions in your market area this month was
33
Auctions Increasing
Down
Last Month
100%
90%
13%
100%
10%
80%
70%
32%
37%
11%
23%
18%
19%
90%
80%
23%
26%
70%
60%
60%
50%
50%
40%
40%
30%
20%
55%
54%
66%
59%
55%
30%
Flat
14%
11%
26%
28%
61%
61%
Up
13%
15%
71%
20%
10%
10%
0%
0%
Q: Compared to last month/year, the number of auctions in your market area this month was
LastYear
17%
19%
15%
15%
68%
66%
34
All Cash Purchases Decreasing
Last Month
Down
Flat
Up
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Jun-14
Aug-14
Oct-14
Dec-14
Feb-15
Aug-14
Oct-14
Dec-14
Feb-15
Apr-15
Jun-15
LastYear
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Jun-14
Apr-15
Q: Compared to last month/year, the number of all cash purchases in your market area this month was
Jun-15
35
All Cash Purchases Up

Last Month
Down
100%
90%
21%
19%
29%
90%
37%
39%
36%
60%
35%
50%
40%
35%
30%
10%
40%
25%
28%
0%
2014-Q32014-Q4 2015-Q1 2015-Q2
32%
24%
22%
52%
59%
46%
23%
41%
10%
0%
2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2015-Q1 2015-Q2
Q: Compared to last month/year, the number of all cash purchases in your market area this month was
36%
40%
20%
35%
18%
50%
30%
44%
23%
80%
70%
70%
20%
LastYear
Up
100%
80%
60%
Flat
36
Majority of REALTORS Expect Better/Similar

MarketConditionsOver the NextYear
Worsen
Same
Improve
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
Q: What are your expectations for market conditions over the next year?
Jun-15
May-15
Apr-15
Mar-15
Feb-15
Jan-15
Dec-14
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
May-14
Apr-14
Mar-14
Feb-14
Jan-14
0%
37
REALTORS Expect Mostly Similar/Better Market

ConditionsOver the NextYear
Worsen
Same
Improve
100%
90%
80%
70%
55%
33%
40%
42%
58%
60%
47%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
36%
10%
45%
45%
45%
15%
34%
22%
13%
2014-Q1 2014-Q2
2014-Q3
2014-Q4
Q: What are your expectations for market conditions over the next year?
8%
2015-Q1
40%
13%
2015-Q2
38
Why REALTORS Expect MarketConditions to

Worsen
New mortgage regulations, short supply, higher prices.
Prices are too high.
History.
Buyers are pulling away due to inflated prices.
Rising interest rates.
Q: Why do you expect real estate market conditions to worsen over the next year?
39
Top 10 Counties
May 2015
June 2015
Los Angeles
Los Angeles
San Diego
San Diego
Alameda
Riverside
Riverside
Orange
Santa Clara
Alameda
Sacramento
Santa Clara
Orange
Sacramento
Fresno
San Luis Obispo
Contra Costa
Marin
10
San Mateo
Sonoma
Q: In which county do you live?


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1

transaction and business activity in their market area

More than 4/10TransactionsClosed BelowAsking Price

Premium Paid OverAsking Price Increased

Premium Paid OverAsking Price Stable

Discount on Asking Price Increases

Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- DecFeb- Mar- Apr- MayJan-15

Discount on Asking Price Decreased Slightly

65% of Properties Receiving MultipleOffers

More Properties Receiving MultipleOffers

Q: How many offers did your last closed transaction receive?

Number of Offers Received Flat

Q: How many offers did your last closed transaction receive?

Average Number of Offers Increased

Q: How many offers did your last closed transaction receive?

Proportion of Properties with Listing Price

31% 31% 31%

Proportion of Properties with Listing Price

% of Previous Renters Flat

Proportion of Previous Renters Slightly Down

Fewer Sellers Becoming Renters

Fewer Sellers are Becoming Renters

Share of First-time Buyers Fluctuating

Long Run Average

Q: Was the buyer of your last closed transaction a first-time buyer?

Share of First-Time Buyers Declining

Q: Was the buyer of your last closed transaction a first-time buyer?

Majority Purchases are Primary Residences

Q: What was the intended use of the property?

Majority Purchases are Primary Residences

Q: What was the intended use of the property?

International Buyers Fluctuate

Long Run Average

International Buyers Up Slightly

Floor Calls from Potential Clients Declining

Floor Calls from Potential Clients Up

Open HouseTraffic Declining

All Cash Purchases Decreasing

All Cash Purchases Up

2014-Q32014-Q4 2015-Q1 2015-Q2

2014-Q3 2014-Q4 2015-Q1 2015-Q2

Majority of REALTORS Expect Better/Similar

REALTORS Expect Mostly Similar/Better Market

Why REALTORS Expect MarketConditions to

Prices are too high.

Buyers are pulling away due to inflated prices.

Rising interest rates.

San Luis Obispo

Q: In which county do you live?

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