Journal of Land and Rural Studies-2015-Palchoudhuri-1-28

Article
A New Socioeconomic
Index for Modelling Land
Use and Land Cover
Change: A Case Study
in Narmada River Basin,
India
Journal of Land and Rural Studies

3(1) 128
2015 Centre for Rural
Studies, LBSNAA
SAGE Publications
sagepub.in/home.nav
DOI: 10.1177/2321024914534051
http://lrs.sagepub.com
Yajnaseni Palchoudhuri1
Partha Sarathi Roy2
Vijay K. Srivastava3
Abstract
Human society has been utilising the natural resources from the dawn of its
civilisation in varying intensity to improve their living standard. Over the course
of time, the extraction of the amenities required for such developmental
purpose, affects the resource use pattern and access. This has resulted in a
change in the existing land use practices in the region. Thus, socio-economic
setting of any region and the land use are interlinked and affect each other.
This article presents a new socio-economic index (SEI) to quantify the socioeconomic status of any river basin. UNDPs Human Development Index of 1990
has been used and modified to compute the index, in which various aspects
of human life are considered and collected from National Survey Samples to
reflect on the basins land use scenario. Results of the analysis are presented
on Narmada River basin as a case study.
Keywords
socio-economic development, human development index, land use change,
human drivers of change, population growth
CEPT University, Ahmedabad, India

UCESS, Hyderabad Central University, Andhra Pradesh, India.
3
National Remote Sensing Centre, Hyderabad, Andhra Pradesh, India.
2
Corresponding author:
Yajnaseni Palchoudhuri, CEPT University, Ahmedabad, India
E-mail: yajnaseni.palchoudhuri@gmail.com, ypalchoudhuri@yahoo.co.in
Downloaded from lrs.sagepub.com at Dehli University Library System on July 18, 2015
Journal of Land and Rural Studies 3(1)
Introduction
Development deals with improvement of quality of human life and consists of
several parameters of the human environment. Some of its major parameters include:
economic growth, education, health infrastructure, degree of modernisation, women
empowerment, grass root participation in decision making in development level of
nutrition, housing quality, distribution of goods and services and access to
communication. These parameters are the indicators of the socio-economic
development of a region which deals with improving the standard of life. Postindustrialisation, this development along with the rapid population growth has
happened unevenly throughout the world. As a result, there is a gradual increase
in the unsustainable utilisation of natural resources (Das, 1999).
Land is the major source of Earths natural resources. Human being has evolved
themselves to harness these resources very effectively. The rapid depletion of
these resources is best reflected in the spatial and temporal variation of land use
classes. Thus, the population growth along with the socio-economic development
of any region is often identified as the major cause behind its land use dynamics
and the environmental change over time. To understand and assess the processes
of land use change in developing countries like India, it is crucial to measure
the growth in various aspects of socio economy and analyse them with respect
to corresponding land use classes. The ISRO-Geosphere Biosphere Programme
(IGBP) has undertaken a nationwide land use land-cover dynamics project (since
2007), studying the complex interaction between human and environment on a
river basin level. In order to assess the human dimensions of land use change, an
attempt is made to generate a robust socio-economic index which can be related
with the temporal and spatial land use dynamics of the basin.
A socio-economic index measures the varying parameters of socio-economic
development of a region (within any river basin). It identifies the homogeneous
(in abstract) social groups that reflect the quality of human life. These parameters
can be broadly grouped under the sub-heads of economy, literacy, health and
infrastructure. The economy parameter constitutes of all the income based measures
and employment source parameters, for example, GDP per capita, Purchasing
power parity (PPP), growth of establishments providing employment, percentage
of population earning income etc. It has been the key determinant of living standard,
defining the extent to which a persons basic needs are met through his ability
to consume. The literacy indicator includes factors like literacy rate, Enrolment
ratio in the schools or access to education. The health parameters cover the health
infrastructure and facilities accessed by the individuals, infant mortality rate and
sex ratio. The infrastructural parameter explains the development of the basic
facilities needed to sustain human life, for example, the drinking water facilities,
access to market and source of employment through road connectivity. All of this
information studying the varying aspects of social and economic growth of any
region is state-wise collected and organised by the Census and National Survey
Samples. It is essential to integrate these socio-economic parameters to generate
a robust index in order to understand the status of socio-economic growth and
Palchoudhuri et al.
development of a region. So far, there has been no such positive effort to generate
such an index comprising all the aspects of socio economy at a national level.
United Nations Development Programs (UNDPs) Human Development Index
(HDI), in 1990 is probably the first successful attempt of its kind, classifying the
different groups of settlement of the nation according to their human development
quotient. As founded by the Pakistani economist Dr Mahbub ul Haq, the Human
Development Index has covered almost all aspect of economic, social, cultural,
political and emotional well being (Noorbakhsh, 1998). The main components
of HDI include a long and healthy life (health parameters), access to education
(literacy parameter) and a decent standard of living (income/economy parameter)
(HDR, 1990). The calculation of the final human development index value is based
on the simple average of these three components. HDI being an aggregate index,
it has not provided with the information regarding the contribution or relative
importance of its different components. It also does not include the infrastructural
indicator of socio-economic growth of a nation, in its calculation. It has not taken
into account the development and the availability of the basic amenities like safe
drinking water, road construction, access to local market and other household
facilities, as an indicator to measure human well being. The availability and
access to these basic requirements of living has immense impact on demographic
and socio-economic growth of the region, which shapes the land use with time.
Since HDI, does not consider the infrastructural parameter of socio-economic
development, hence, cannot be used to study and assess the human dimensions of
land use change. For a country like India, where the range of socio economic and
cultural diversity being extremely high, the HDI value can hardly capture the true
essence of growth in human development within the country or a state, that can
be used in land use change analysis. These issues of Human development Index
have been addressed and modified to generate an integrated socioeconomic index,
in order to link the socio-economic growth of a region to its land use change
scenario with time.
Human Dimensions of Land Use Change

Most of the land use and land cover changes (modifications and conversions)
are triggered by human usage of land (Verburg et al., 1997). The term land use
has its origin from the very decision as to how and for what purpose land
resources are used by man. Land cover is in a constant state of flux since the
time of evolution of Earth. There are certain well defined endogenic and
exogenic forces of the Earth and its atmosphere that reforms the features on and
within Earths surface and its surroundings at a regular pace. These physical
parameters that drive the land cover of any region to change are termed as the
direct drivers of change. Thus, the suitability of land for any particular land use/
land cover type is foremost, defined by the attributes of physical factors such as
soil, climate, topography etc. With the gradual change of these physical factors
over time, there has always been a slow but steady change in land cover scenario.
But with the rise of human civilisation, these direct drivers or natural agents of
change are affected indirectly by the human intervention to exploit the natural
resources. Thus, the overall land cover change procedure is accelerated. These
human interactions of land use change are the indirect drivers of change. They
consist of the demographic, economic, socio-cultural and scientific and
technological parameters of human dimensions, which alter the direct drivers of
change more diffusely (Figure 1).
In recent times, land use and land-cover change is more influenced, as the
increasing population needs more space and land to satisfy its demand for
food, shelter and energy requirements. In order to meet this demand for better
living, humans during the last 50 years have altered and influenced the natural
ecosystem to an unprecedented extent (Adamowicz et al., 2005). Different
region of the world has responded differently to these needs on the basis of their
different socio-cultural and economic structure. The historical development of
the region concerned, its cultural and political factors, trade and most importantly
the suitability of the land (defined by the natural drivers) have been the major
constraints reflected in this competition. This complex interaction among the
socio-economic conditions and the suitability of land for the purpose produced
the spatial variation of the land use classes.
Furthermore, global demands have always influenced the Economic factors
like markets and policies, and have a direct impact on the decision making by
land managers through the prices, taxes, subsidies, production and transportation
Relationship between bio-physical, socio-economic
drivers and land use/land cover system
Globally systemic change
Feedback
Socio-economic
drivers
Technological change
Ecological
systems
Bio-physical
drivers
Ba
Ind ckgr
ire ou
ct nd
eff &
ec
ts
Social
systems
Land
managers
Land use
system
Operation
sequence
Feedback
Land
cover
Figure 1: Drivers of Land Use and Land Cover System

Source: Briassoulis (2008).
Regional
and
global
change
Palchoudhuri et al.
cost, capital flows, investments, trade and technology. The ever increasing market
based demands for various land use classes thus lead to an increase of land
under market crops and a reduction in subsistence cropland, and intensification
of agricultural practices (Lambin et al., 2003). Hence, both rise and decline
of a regional population have a large impact on its land use. Many times, land
use has changed because of weak policies and institutional enforcement, for
example, the widespread illegal logging in Indonesia because of corruption and
the devolving of forest management responsibilities to the district level. On the
other hand, strong and effective land use policies have resulted in the proper
restoration of land. Some of policies that have influenced land use change are
state policies to attain self-sufficiency in food, taxation, credits, subsidies; price
control in agricultural inputs and outputs; decentralisation; infrastructure support;
investments in monitoring natural resources; land consolidation; nationalisation;
and international environmental agreements (Lambin et al., 2003). The various
sectors of land use change as mentioned earlier are strongly interlinked within the
various levels of humanenvironment systems. The human intervention and the
natural system of change, follows a vicious cycle, both changing and acting as
feedback to change with time.
Socio-economic Driver of Change

Society has utilised the natural resources in many ways in order to improve life
for every common man. As the population rises with time, the demand for a better
life has increased, magnifying the pressure on natural resources. This has lead to
a change in land use practices in the region, for example, increase in built up area,
increase in crop land area, change in water bodies, decrease in forest area, barren
land and waste land etc. The socio-economic drivers of the land use change are
the factors, which drives the change in land use and land cover scenario, at any
region over the period of time. These drivers comprise of the different aspects of
demography, society, economy, political and institutional factors and processes
such as population change, industrial structure and change, technological change,
the family, market, various public sector bodies, and the related policies, rules,
community organisation and norms.
The main aim of the research lies in the development of an integrated socioeconomic entity and to analyse, how the demographic change and socio-economic
development of a nation can affect its land use scenario over time. This analysis
would help in modelling and projecting future land use changes, enabling the land
planners and policy makers for a better land management.
The study was undertaken with following objectives:
To develop integrated Socio-economic index (SEI) which can act as drivers
as land use and land cover change; and
l To determine relationship of socio-economic and demographic drivers with
land use dynamics in river basin.
l
Study Area
Narmada River Basin
The basin encompasses catchment area of the river Narmada and lies between
20 28 0.97 N to 24 4242.6 N latitude and 68 63.7 E to 81 4616.18
E longitude. It extends over an area of 98,796 Km2. which is nearly 3 per cent
of the total geographical area of the country and is home to 21 million people,
nearly 80 per cent of whom live in villages. The basin lies in the states of
Madhya Pradesh, Chhatisgarh, Gujarat, Maharashtra and Rajasthan. Table 1
gives the number of districts and taluks of each district in each state which falls
in Narmada River basin.
Physiographically, the basin can be divided into hilly and plain regions. The
hilly regions are forested. The plain regions are located between the hilly tracts
and in the lower reaches. This region is fertile thus it is well suited for cultivation.
The climate of the basin is humid and tropical. In the cold weather, the mean
annual temperature varies from 17.5 to 20C and in the hot weather from 30 to
32.5C. In the upper hilly areas, the annual rainfall is, in general, ranges between
1,400 and 1,650 mm. In the upper plains, the annual rainfall decreases from 1,400
to less than 1,000 mm. In the lower plains the annual rainfall decreases rapidly
from 1,000 mm at the eastern and to less than 650 mm representing the most arid
part of the Narmada basin.
Agriculture and forest are the main land cover in the basin. The legal forest
covers an area of about 32 per cent of the basin while 45 per cent area is under
agriculture. Most of the legal forests are highly degraded and the actual dense
forest as per Forest Survey of India is about 15 per cent of the basins geographic
area. The dense forest is located in the hilly regions of the upper basin dominated
by tropical moist tree species. The farmers in the Narmada basin mostly cultivate
small plots located on terrains and are traditionally driven by desire to produce for
sustenance rather than profit. Table 1 and Figure 2 show the distribution of districts
and taluks covered by the basin boundary and the location map of the Narmada
basin containing boundary of each district falling within the basin, respectively.
Table 1: Distribution of Taluks in Each District of the State Covered in Narmada River
Basin
Name of
S. No. the State
Number of Districts in
Each State Located in
Narmada River Basin
Number of Taluks in Each

District in Each State Located
in Narmada River Basin
Madhya Pradesh
19
67
Chhatisgarh
02
05
Gujarat
20
175
Maharashtra
07
55
Rajasthan
06
29
54
331
Total 05
Source: All India Soil & Landuse Survey (AISLUS) Atlas.
Source: All India Soil & Landuse Survey (AISLUS) Atlas.
Figure 2: Location Map of the Narmada River Basin
Methodology
United Nations Development Program in 1990 has identified parameters that has
defined the socio-economic conditions of a nation and developed indices indicating
the human development and assessing the longevity of human life and their survival
strategy. Some of these parameters can be classified into (i) long and healthy life
life expectancy and medical facilities; (ii) knowledgeliteracy; (iii) safe and decent
livingdrinking water facility; (iv) gender equalitysex ratio; (v) economy
number of establishment and total number of working population in these
establishments and (vi) infrastructureroad and transportation facility.
Selection of Socio-economic parameters
On the basis of the UNDPS Human Development Programme, the effort
has been made to look for those parameters, which explain the three basic
aspects of Socio Economy of the basin, that is, income, education and
health. Since Narmada River basin covers, parts of five different states, as a
result the economy within the basin will vary widely.
The selection criterion has been decided on the basis of the level of
analysis, the availability of data at that scale of analysis uniform for all
states within the basin, and the optimum significance of the selected ones
with respect to the context.
In view of the earlier said criterion, the various socio-economic parameters
of Narmada River basin has been selected which are as follows (Table 2):
l
Selected parameters for Narmada SEI:

Health facility: District-wise health facility collected including the number
of hospitals, dispensaries, community health centres and primary health
centres;
Literacy rate: District-wise number of literates in percentage was
recorded;
Table 2: Selected Socio Economic Parameters for Narmada River Basin
Human Development
Factors (UNDP,1990)
Modified HDI
(UNDP)
Socio-economic Factors
(Narmada basin)
Income
Economy
Number of establishments
Number of working
population
Education
Education
Literacy rates (%)
Health
Health
Medical facilities (number)

Sex Ratio(per 1000 males)
Infrastructure
Drinking water facility

(population having
drinking water)
Road length (km)
Source: Data analysis by authors.
Sources
India Statistics
website, State
Reports pdfs,
Census of India
website
Palchoudhuri et al.
Drinking water facility: District-wise number of population benefited by

drinking water facilities and measured with respect to number of population
for the 3 time frames;
Sex ratio: District-wise ratio of number of female population per thousand
male populations was recorded for the 3 time frames;
Number of establishments: Recorded district-wise number of both
agricultural and non-agricultural establishments that provide employment
to the inhabitants of the region;
Working population: District-wise number of population employed in the
above mentioned establishments; and
Road: Road connectivity is an important aspect of development as it
connects the villages to taluks to districts head quarters to different taluks
and district, enabling local populations to move from one place to other for
their needs. District wise total road length was recorded for the period of
the present study.
Data for all 5 states, within the Narmada River basin, have been collected
from different sources at district level to ensure a greater variability of socio
economy prevailing there.
Development of An Integrated Socio-Economic index (SEI) for the
basin at district level
The selected parameters for socio-economic development of Narmada River
basin at district level have been collected from various earlier mentioned
Government sources for three census years of 1981, 1991 and 2001 at an
interval of 10 years.
The following procedure has been followed for computing an integrated
socio-economic index for the basin at the district level of analysis:
l
Calculation of the selected parameters for the year 1985, 1995 and 2005,
on the basis of the collected input data for the census years of 1981,1991
and 2001 using linear progression.
Organisation of the three time frame data (1985, 1995 and 2005) for all
the five states covering Narmada basin in tabular format.
Calculation of SUB INDEX for each socio-economic parameter using
the formula:
Sub-index (For any parameter) = (Actual valueMinimum value)/
(Maximum valueMinimum value)
Where,
Minimum value = 0
Maximum value = Maximum value of the parameter within the set of
districts located within a river basin.
Actual value = the value that correspond to a particular district.
Calculation of Socio-Economic Index (SEI) from the SUB INDICES
values of the selected parameters, using the linear integration approach:
SEI = ([{(SI-1*a-1)} + {(SI-2* a-2)} + {(SI-7 * a-7)}]/
(sum of the weights))*100
10
Where, SI-1 to SI-7 = Sub index (1 to 7), a -1 to a -7 = Weightage of each

parameter derived from the correlation analysis amongst the parameters as
shown in Table 3.
Organising SEI for three time period in Narmada River basin at taluk
level
The organised district level socio-economic data for Narmada River
basin (Table 4) is appended to the district boundary of the basin for its
spatial representation, using the join function in arcmap. Figures 3 and 4
illustrate the visual representation of the output district-wise SEI map in
thematic and vector format, respectively.
Conversion of the vector layer of Narmada district having three time
appended SEI values from polygon to point feature data, using polygon
to point conversion in arcmap as shown in Figure 5.
Using the Spatial Interpolation technique, TIN in Arcmap, the districtwise socio-economic data are converted into raster format, separately for
each year.
The output raster TIN (Figure 6) is further analysed for the spatial
redistribution of SEI data at taluk level of analysis, using the Narmada
taluk Boundary.
The Output raster SEI (Figure 7) for three time period is used as an input
raster, of the SEI value source, in the zonal statistics table computation,
where a zone represent one taluk in the basin. The zonal statistic table has
been used to extract the mean value for SEI, within a taluk area (zone) and
append the same with the taluk boundary layer, on the basis of taluk name
as shown in Figure 8.
l
Organisation of Population Data at taluk level of analysis

Taluk-wise population data are collected at each Census year of 1981, 1991
and 2001 from the Census of India website and has been used as the base
data for the calculation of population data of 1985, 1995 and 2005, using the
following exponential formula of growth (Census of India):
Input data: Population of 1981, 1991 and 2001,
Population Decadal Growth Rate (19811991, 19912001 and
20012011
Formula: (for example)
Population of 1982 = Population of 1981* log(e) {power(Growth
rate 19811991/year)}
Population of 1983 = Population of 1982 * log(e) {power(Growth

Population of 1985 = Population of 1984* log(e) {power(Growth


[where log(e) has a constant value of 2.17828]
l
In a similar procedure, population for 1995 and 2005 is also calculated from
population 1991 and 2001 and their respective growth rates. Table 5 shows the
0.94
0.34
0.34
0.56
0.80
0.40
3.39
0.32
Woking population
Literacy rate
Health facility
Sex ratio
Drinking water facility
Road length
Total
Weightage
Establishment
Establishment
0.24
2.51
0.39
0.86
0.60
0.38
0.29
Woking
Population
0.10
1.06
0.18
0.29
0.40
0.19
Literacy
Rate
0.12
1.31
0.58
0.63
0.10
Health
Facility
Table 3: Calculation of Weightage for the Narmada Socio-economic Parameters-2005
0.06
0.67
0.14
0.52
Sex
Ratio
0.06
0.68
0.68
Drinking
Water Facility
0.094
Road
Length
10.62
370008.00
293977.00
143645.00
180021.00
219672.00
197320.00
214720.00
216611.00
123145.00
127659.00
142843.00
127422.00
110881.00
112638.00
119296.00
97873.00
72877.00
94183.00
94048.00
93634.00
65923.00
1.00
0.79
0.39
0.49
0.59
0.53
0.58
0.59
0.33
0.35
0.39
0.34
0.30
0.30
0.32
0.26
0.20
0.25
0.25
0.25
0.18
Ahmadabad
Surat
Nashik
Vadodara
Sabar Kantha
Rajkot
Mahesana
Kheda
Jalgaon
Bhavnagar
Banas Kantha
Junagadh
Amravati
Jamnagar
Indore
Jabalpur
Buldana
Surendranagar
Bharuch
Gandhinagar
Panch Mahals
DIST_1
Final
Total
Sub
Establishment Index
(Number)
(1)
995199.00
891718.00
448245.00
443019.00
360992.00
376747.00
412971.00
357350.00
228589.00
324566.00
260564.00
236222.00
163445.00
293678.00
331184.00
329591.00
105930.00
194996.00
186853.00
216130.00
105272.00
1.00
0.90
0.45
0.45
0.36
0.38
0.41
0.36
0.23
0.33
0.26
0.24
0.16
0.30
0.33
0.33
0.11
0.20
0.19
0.22
0.11
81.84
79.25
80.22
74.40
70.61
77.80
78.39
76.61
80.76
74.90
55.60
71.77
88.10
70.22
78.22
80.85
81.91
64.89
78.29
77.71
66.25
0.92
0.89
0.91
0.84
0.80
0.88
0.88
0.86
0.91
0.85
0.63
0.81
0.99
0.79
0.88
0.91
0.92
0.73
0.88
0.88
0.75
331.00
696.00
661.00
557.00
493.00
390.00
305.00
354.00
493.00
415.00
499.00
458.00
388.00
312.00
140.00
214.00
324.00
238.00
204.00
205.00
478.00
0.48
1.00
0.95
0.80
0.71
0.56
0.44
0.51
0.71
0.60
0.72
0.66
0.56
0.45
0.20
0.31
0.47
0.34
0.29
0.29
0.69
Total
Final
Final
Total
Final
Working
Sub
Sub
Health
Sub
Persons Index Literacy Index Facility Index
(Number)
(2) Rate (%) (3) (Number) (4)
Table 4: Computation of SEI for Narmada River Basin in 2005
890.00
808.60
922.80
921.40
939.80
923.60
917.40
922.60
931.60
934.20
928.40
953.00
940.80
937.80
914.40
910.00
946.00
925.20
919.40
903.20
939.60
0.86
0.78
0.89
0.89
0.91
0.89
0.89
0.89
0.90
0.90
0.90
0.92
0.91
0.91
0.89
0.88
0.92
0.90
0.89
0.87
0.91
5473085.03
5229625.58
5016518.81
3746203.87
2159375.38
3053284.79
1899385.69
2082973.06
3701033.11
2305717.12
2528789.34
2433727.07
2621003.58
1825875.20
2717344.23
2173968.10
2239091.56
1537676.33
1391599.49
1375094.75
2094037.40
1.00 3942.00
0.96 4313.00
0.92 13635.00
0.68 4180.00
0.39 4443.00
0.56 4349.00
0.35 2226.00
0.38 2497.00
0.68 9705.00
0.42 4233.00
0.46 4283.00
0.44 3734.00
0.48 6222.00
0.33 3530.00
0.50 1472.60
0.40 1612.20
0.41 4197.00
0.28 3511.00
0.25 2738.00
0.25 1970.00
0.38 2274.00
0.29
0.32
1.00
0.31
0.33
0.32
0.16
0.18
0.71
0.31
0.31
0.27
0.46
0.26
0.11
0.12
0.31
0.26
0.20
0.14
0.17
85.14
81.76
64.65
57.15
55.50
53.82
51.90
51.84
50.57
45.81
45.16
44.02
43.33
40.41
39.21
38.37
35.05
34.14
34.11
34.07
33.85
SEX Final Population Final

Final
Ratio Sub Having Facility Sub
Length
Sub SEI_
(per Index of Water Index of Roads Index 2005
1000) (5)
(Number)
(6)
(kms)
(7)
(%)
Figure 3: District-wise Socio-economic Classes (2005)
Figure 4: District-wise Spatial Distribution of SEI (1985, 1995 and 2005)
Figure 5: SEI as Point Layer (1985, 1995 and 2005)

16
Figure 6: SEI as TIN (2005)

calculation and organisation of taluk-wise population data within the basin

as part of the analysis. The output population data is then attached to the
spatial database of taluk boundary and rasterised to generate the population
thematic raster of 1985, 1995 and 2005 (Figure 9).
l Correlation of socio-economic and demographic drivers with land use
categories of the basin for three time period.
In order to analyse the relation between the human drivers and land use
dynamics, it is required to organise the temporal changes in both the land
use categories and the drivers database on the same level, so as to identify the
sequences of changes. For the purpose, the land use changes for all categories
are incorporated in the taluk layer along with its respective driver database, for
all three time periods separately, so that we can get the distribution of change
in various land use categories along with their driver values in each taluk.
In Arcmap, Union function has been used to bring the land use data at the
same base with the driver data, so that, the change in the land use area for a
particular class with respect to the change in the driver data for a particular
taluk can be well recognised (Figure 10).
Impact of the drivers on the land use categories can be assessed with
the help of Correlation Matrix, which is built on the land use database for
three years separately (Table 6). A correlation Matrix is an array of row
and column, having the correlation values, which depicts the strength of
relation among different variables of land use categories and its drivers.
A correlation value (denoted by r) ranges from 1 to +1. A high value of
r whether positive or negative, shows a higher dependency among two
variables, which means with a slight change in the first variable, there will
be a significant change in the second one and vice versa. On the other hand,
when the value of r will be more near to the zero, it depicts a lower strength
of relation between the two variables. The sign of r indicates the direction
of relationship; + means that with the increase in independent variable, the
dependent variable increases; means that with increase in independent
variable, the dependent variable decreases.
Palchoudhuri et al.
Figure 7: SEI Raster (1985, 1995, and 2005)

17
Figure 8: Spatial Representation of Taluk-wise SEI Data (1985, 1995, and 2005)
POP_81
POP_
1991
POP_
2001
144232
73641
59153
46556
138970
Babra
Dhari Mahal 126581
Jafarabad
Mahal
Khambha
Mahal
Kodinar
165795
53045
107809
91911
Amreli
277534
198232
270948
176233
Viramgam
161525
307343
261092
137346
Dholka
Dhandhuka 213748
Sanand
252183
278107
Daskroi
214321
308214
183633
Dahegam
600
198181 536.8
84529 407.5
90732 355.6
136253 10922
122983 793.1
217501 838.5
172400 1714.1
193335 790.7
214836 1692.1
434662 2682.9
459183 698.4
250253 620.2
Ahmadabad 2530920 3280692 4220048

City
TALUK
6.45
6.45
6.45
6.45
6.45
6.45
26.61
26.61
26.61
26.61
26.61
26.61
26.61
16
16
14.97
16
16
16
16
16
16
16
16
16
16
16
14.97
14.97
14.97
14.97
14.97
24.25
24.25
24.25
24.25
24.25
24.25
24.25
0.00645
0.00645
0.00645
0.00645
0.00645
0.00645
0.02661
0.02661
0.02661
0.02661
0.02661
0.02661
0.02661
0.01497 0.016
0.01497 0.016
0.01497 0.016
0.01497 0.016
0.01497 0.016
0.01497 0.016
0.02425 0.016
0.02425 0.016
0.02425 0.016
0.02425 0.016
0.02425 0.016
0.02425 0.016
0.02425 0.016
Growth
Growth Growth rate
Growth Growth Growth rate
rate
per yr
Area
rate
rate
rate
per yr
per yr (2001
1981 (912001) (8191) (0106) (200191) (9181) 2006)
Table 5: Organisation of Taluk-wise Population (1985, 1995, and 2005) in Narmada River Basin
Pop
2005
Log(e)
Pop
1995
Log(e)
Pop
1985
273971 1.019059 230514.9
1.012534 456868.2 1.020933
263038 1.020933 232837.8 1.019059 198037.6

334843 1019059 299922.4
143214 1.005034 147158.4 1.011723 132621.8
129266 1.005034 109996.4 1.011723 96297.22
202254 1.011723 184643.3
145602
(Table 5 Continued)
1.012534 208305.8 1.005034 169158.9 1.011723
1.012534 88847.46 1.005034 54121.25 1.011723 48777.77
1.012534 95367.36 1.005034 75135.12 1.011723 61975.93
1.012534
1.012534
1.012534 228612.8 1.005034
1.012534 181207.7 1.020933 301512.3 1.019059 292201.9
1.012534 203212.2 1.020933 175480.4 1.019059 148119.8
1.012534 225811.6 1.020933 333896.7 1.019059 281572.7
1.012534
482642 1.020933
1.012534
1.012534 4435644 1.020933 3564136 1.019059 2729452
Log(e)
146372
397437
100487
53846
132268
101845
142288
260532
145075
23875
307683
81174
Lathi
Damnagar
Lilia Mahal
Rajula
Danta
Dhanera
Disa
Diyodar
Kankrej
Palanpur
Radhanpur
94669
190077
352040
191633
131476
160177
62646
119304
148538
153092
Kunkavawa
Dia
POP_
1991
POP_81
TALUK
(Table 5 Continued)
850
395
120177 595.7
380707 1473.1
185352 795.5
146393 1011.5
458303 1481.5
181174 1188.5
173366 860.4
145628
60722
132139 632.8
157770 839.2
POP_
2001
26.31
26.31
26.31
26.31
26.31
26.31
26.31
6.45
6.45
6.45
6.45
30.87
30.87
30.87
30.87
30.87
30.87
30.87
14.97
14.97
14.97
1497
16
16
16
16
16
16
16
16
16
16
16
0.02631
0.02631
0.02631
0.02631
0.02631
0.02631
0.02631
0.00645
0.00645
0.00645
0.00645
Pop
2005
Log(e)
Pop
1995
Log(e)
Pop
1985
0.03087 0.016
0.03087 0.016
0.03087 0.016
0.03087 0.016
0.03087 0.016
0.03087 0.016
182223 1.020694 142701.8 1.024325 112121.8
153872 1.020694 206306.4 1.024325
159714
481717 1.020694 382098.3 1.024325 286821.3
1.012534 126316.7 1.020694 102752.1 1.024325 89364.95
1.012534 400156.7 1.020694 431371.4 1.024325 338730.1
1.012534 194821.4 1.020694 158869.7 1.024325 26284.13
1.012534
1.012534
1.012534 190429.9 1.020694 207995.2 1.024325 156645.7
1.012534
1.012534 153067.9 1.005034 163426.9 1.011723 138580.2
0.01497 0.016
1.012534 63824.19 1.005034 63917.04 1.011723 56415.66
1.012534 138889.8 1.005034 121724.6 1.011723 105282.5
1.012534 165830.2 1.005034 151551.7 1.011723 160397.9
Log(e)
0.03087 0.016
0.01497 0.016
0.01497 0.016
0.01497 0.016
Growth
Growth Growth rate
Growth Growth Growth rate
rate
per yr
Area
rate
rate
rate
per yr
per yr (2001
1981 (912001) (8191) (0106) (200191) (9181) 2006)
Palchoudhuri et al.
Figure 9: Population Raster (1985, 1995, and 2005)

21
Figure 10: Union of LULC with Driver Database (2005)
23
Palchoudhuri et al.
Table 6: Correlation Analysis between Land Use Classes and Corresponding Driver
Database (1985, 1995, and 2005)
Forest
(1)
Sp. Veg
(2)
Water Built Up
Body(3)
(4)
rain05
0.215
0.036
0.127
temp05
0.367
0.038
0.078
0.520
0.120
2005
ele
slope%
sd
Cropland(S)
Waste
Land(6)
Fallow
Land(7)
0.002
0.103
0.114
0.028
0.055
0.117
0.052
0.023
0.136
0.105
0.080
0.129
0.159
0.505
0.290
0.091
0.137
0.227
0.071
0.012
0.192
0.183
0.149
0.092
0.173
0.067
0.059
0.065
0.073
0.010
0.837
0.194
0.042
0.097
0.277
0.223
0.047
0.094
0.010
0.009
0.022
0.527
0.233
0.590
0.056
0.556
0.352
0.423
rain95
0.327
0.009
0.202
0.063
0.144
0.210
0.151
temp95
0.388
0.017
0.119
0.092
0.243
0.113
0.138
pop05
sei05
drainge05
1995
ele
0.515
0.039
0.196
0.136
0.242
0.161
0.130
slope%
0.506
0.213
0.112
0.149
0.037
0.106
0.248
0.197
0.061
0.194
0.107
0.014
0.051
0.194
sd
0.073
0.022
0.020
0.883
0.196
0.047
0.066
0.185
0.127
0.026
0.132
0.119
0.004
0.195
0.437
0.141
0.079
0.019
0.454
0.081
0.175
rain85
0.296
0.035
0.159
0.034
0.216
0.273
0.252
temp85
pop95
sei95
drng95
1985
0.334
0.003
0.074
0.089
0.310
0.109
0.173
ele
0.497
0.093
0.197
0.131
0.295
0.178
0.229
slope%
0.522
0.142
0.116
0.141
0.072
0.093
0.250
0.217
0.050
0.172
0.111
0.123
0.084
0.055
pop85
0.078
0.080
0.033
0.824
0.251
0.078
0.087
sei85
0.034
0.038
0.046
0.073
0.036
0.099
0.041
drng85
0.320
0.028
0.028
0.019
0.402
0.020
0.343
sd
Result and Discussion

For Narmada River basin, the significant socio-economic factors are the economic
factors and the drinking water facilities, followed by the health facilities and the
road connectivity, as shown in Table 3. The correlation values have validated the
authentication of the socio-economic model, chosen for the computation of socioeconomic index for the basin.
24
According to the output socio-economic index map of Narmada basin, the

highest index value within the basin is found in the regions of Ahmadabad and Surat
of Gujarat and Nasik of Maharashtra and the lowest socio economy is found in the
Dangs district of Gujarat, because of the existing tribal community (Figure 11).
Similar to the socio-economic factors, the demographic factor has also followed
the same trend of change over time, as evaluated from the population data. The
highest value for total population per district of the Narmada basin is found in the
Ahmadabad and Nasik district of Gujarat and Maharashtra and the Dangs being
the lowest, as shown in Figure 12.
Since land resources have been used for human benefit since ages, population
and socio-economic growth of a human community have strong impact on the
land use dynamics. With increased population, there would be the demand for
more land for agriculture or looking for fuel wood or timber. Larger numbers of
SEI 2005 (%)
Ra
jn
Ba and
na ga
Sa s K on
ba an
r t
Ah Ka ha
m nth
ad a
ab
Po Raj ad
rb ko
an t
Am dar
re
Va Khe li
do da
da
Su ra
Va rat
l
Ra sad
tla
Jh m
ab
Ea Ind ua
st or
-N e
i
Ra ma
is r
H en
Ja ard
ba a
l
M pur
an
d
N S la
an eo
du ni
Ja rba
lga r
Ak on
N ola
as
D Si hik
u
C ng roh
hi ar i
tta p
ur ur
ga
rh
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Figure 11: Graphical Representation of District-wise Socio-economic Index of Narmada

River Basin, 2005.
TOTAL POPULATION 2005
Ra
jna
n
Ba dang
na
ao
s
Sa Ka n
ba nth
r
Ah Kan a
ma th
da a
ba
Ra d
Po jko
rb
an t
d
Am ar
K reli
Va heda
do
da
r
Su a
r
Va at
ls
Ra ad
tla
Jha m
bu
a
I
Ea ndo
st- re
Ni
m
Ra ar
ise
Ha n
Jab rda
alp
Ma ur
nd
la
Na Seo
nd ni
ur
Jal bar
ga
o
Ak n
ola
Na
sh
Du Sir ik
n
Ch gar ohi
itt pu
au r
rga
rh
7000000
6000000
5000000
4000000
3000000
2000000
1000000
0
Figure 12: Graphical Representation of District-wise Total Population of Narmada River

Basin, 2005.
Palchoudhuri et al.
25
people would also ensure that more labourers would be available, forcing wages
down and making activities that need labour, such as agriculture, more profitable.
An effect in the same direction may occur if the demand for agricultural products
expands because of the growing number of people who need to be fed (ContrerasHermosella, 2000; Panayotou, 1995). In the Table 6, the relation between various
drivers (both human and physical) with the land use categories prevailing over
Narmada basin, at a scale of 250,000, has been shown. Looking to its history of
economy, over a period of 20 years, Narmada basin has grown as a prominent
agricultural economy. This is because of development of extensive irrigation
facilities induced by the Narmada River dam. Thus, the major changes in land
use classes that have taken place from 1985 to 2005, is mainly found in crop
land, built up area and forested areas. As evident from the Table 6, the highlighted
values refer to those drivers which are having a significant level of impact on the
corresponding land use category. The level of significance depends on the level
of analysis of the concerned data which in case of Narmada were 331 (number of
taluks) and the spatial scale of data analysis were 250,000 scale. Depending on the
level of analysis, which is referred to as unit of freedom, the threshold of correlation
significance is determined. According to this threshold, the values of correlation
coefficient (r) are highlighted in the table, which represent the significant drivers
for a class in a particular year. The land use change measurement depends on the
spatial scale of analysis, thus higher the spatial scale, larger the areas of land use
change can be detected and measured. Since the scale of analysis considered for
Narmada basin is at 2,50,000 for its whole areal coverage, thus the correlation
values (Table 6), the drivers are having with the land use change though significant
but are not very high (for example, the relation SEI is having with the land use
classes in 1995 and 2005).
It is also evident from the table, that there is a difference in the drivers of
change for a particular class from year to year. For example, the socio-economic
driver is an important agent of change for some of the classes in 1995 and 2005,
but in 1985, it has no impact on the land use change for any class. Similarly, the
population growth is affecting the classes like settlement and cropland the most
rather than any other land use class. The most affected land use categories like the
forest, built up and agriculture have been largely impacted by the human drivers
of population, socio economy and drainage parameters (including both natural
and canal drainage), especially after the construction of Narmada dam on the river.
The Narmada River dam, has developed the irrigational facilities, leading to an
increase in crop area, and has ensured the availability of drinking water facilities,
to the remote areas. It has become the source of employment, for the power plant
set ups, thus improving the socio economy of the basin. Henceforth, in a period
of 20 years, the socio economy condition of the basin has improved due to the
various social and economic developmental aspects, along with a steady rise in
population, which has acted as a feedback in changing the land use scenarios, for
the betterment of human life.
Following the data analysis, it can be said that humans and their ever increasing
needs, has a significant relation with the land cover change over time. This is
where, it brings the term land use, which means, human utilisation of land. It
26
is quiet tough to assess the land use change over time and predict for the future,
without considering the human drivers as the agent of land use change. Land use
change hence, is associated with population growth, global market enhancement,
technological innovation and rural developmental policy. Opportunities and
constraints for new land uses are thus created by markets and policies. Land
cover changes are mostly driven by the peoples response to these opportunities
and constraints (Lambin et al., 2003). Sometimes, the population growth also
induces certain technological progress and institutional changes that contribute
to reduced pressures on forests. It may result in agricultural intensification
by increasing the soil fertility using various agricultural techniques instead of
agricultural areal expansion. In response to the global market, there is also a gradual
shift to cash crops on the existing fields and an expansion of agriculture into more
fragile, marginal areas. At more local levels, population density is determined
by road connectivity, soil fertility, employment opportunities, infrastructural
availability and access to markets. Several studies show that population growth in
any forested and sparsely populated areas occurs in response to road construction,
available high-quality soils, and growing demand for agricultural products
(Angelsen and Kaimowitz, 1999). This implies that these factors inevitably lead
to an increase in population and constantly modifying the land use and land cover
scenarios of the region in response to their needs.
In social science studies, the variables are always correlated and
interdependent. Thus, in order to derive a composite index of socio-economic
parameters using any statistical technique, special care is to be taken on the
nature of analysis, availability of the data and objective and scale of analysis. A
nations development in terms of social and economic growth can be categorised
in broad sectors of health, economy and communication. The growth in each
sector further depends on several correlated variables. For a large scale analysis
of regional socio-economic growth of each sector, it is essential to identify the key
variables, accountable for most of the variations in the socio-economic patterns
of the region (Adhikari, 2006). Since the scale of analysis in Narmada basin case
study is as small as 250,000, thus contributions of the variables are considered
with respect to their weightage they are having on the socio-economic condition
of the basin. The Australian Bureau of Statistics in their Socio-Economic Index
for Areas (SEIFA) has identified the Principal Component Analysis as an
important technique of dimension reduction. It has enabled them to summarise
the whole set of inter-dependent variables in each sector into a manageable
form without much loss of original information. Their main objective was to
find a few set of key variables which can account for most of the variation in
the growth of a particular socio-economic sector. This technique of dimension
reduction is significantly important in the large scale evaluation of socioeconomic growth at any local or regional level. Depending upon the purpose
of summarising variables and how the variables group together, one or more of
the principal components are used to create the final index (Adhikari, 2006). On
the other hand, the New Zealand SEI depends more on the concept of Return
to Human Capital model of social stratification (Davis et al., 1997). It follows
a fundamental relationship between cultural resources (education) and access
Palchoudhuri et al.
27
to material reward (income) and this relation is mediated through occupational

structure. The NZSEI, identified three variables of age, income and education to
derive a value for occupational socio-economic status. Each value of the status
is an optimally weighed combination of income and education corrected for age
based on the assumption of the model.
The main purpose of this research work was to derive a relationship between
the land use change of any region and its socio-economic growth represented by
socio-economic index values. The socio-economic growth of any region depends
largely on the overall development of human life, expanding human capabilities
and enlarging their choices to live full and creative lives (Fukuda-Parr, 2003).
The people are the beneficiaries of such a development and the courses of the
change that it brings on the land cover to make it more resourceful for their
use. Thus, in order to assess the socio-economic growth of the river basin in
true sense and to analyse how it affects its land use land cover scenario with
time, UNDPs Human Development Index is considered as a mean to derive
the socio-economic index for the Narmada basin. With the use of four basic
sectors of development, that is, economy, health, education and infrastructure,
the index is computed, the value of which relates well to the corresponding land
use scenario of the region. This type of socio-economic Index suits best for the
small scale study of overall social and economic development of a river basin
affecting the land use dynamics of the region. The major sensitivity of such
indices lies in the arbitrariness and unavailability of the data records as well
as the uncertainty of the fact which variable is more crucial for the growth of a
particular sector of socio economy.
Conclusion
In this article we presented a study on land use dynamics in relation to the impact
of selected socio-economic conditions and demographic conditions prevailing in
the Narmada River basin.
In general, development can be viewed as a multi-dimensional phenomenon,
which defines the existing land use scenarios over the region. Here in this study,
a composite index of development is constructed in the name of socio-economic
index using four broadly accepted components: (i) economic production and
economic condition or in other words level of economic development; (ii) basic
needs to survive; (iii) health and health-related services and (iv) communication.
The values of the index support the general socio-economic conditions
prevailing over the concerned states covering the basin. The factors, which are
found out to be more important for the overall development process in Narmada,
relate to basic needs like education, employment opportunities and facilities like
safe drinking water, Health care infrastructure, etc. Temporal development in
the socio-economic status along with population growth has a direct impact on the
change of land use classes like agriculture, forestry and human settlement, as it
is evident from the correlation analysis. Thus, it can be concluded that to assess
the dynamicity of land use classes over time and to predict them for future, its
28
essential to consider the human drivers along with the physical ones and organise
them according to the scale of analysis, in order to select the significant agent of
change for a particular land use class.
Acknowledgements
The present study as been carried out as part of ISRO Geosphere Biosphere Programme
(IGBP) on landuse/land cover dynamics in Indian river basins and impact of human
drivers thereof.
The authors are thankful to Director, IIRS for all necessary support and to Dr Kanchan
Chopra for reviewing the article and providing valuable suggestions.
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Article

Journal of Land and Rural Studies

CEPT University, Ahmedabad, India

Journal of Land and Rural Studies 3(1)

Human Dimensions of Land Use Change

Journal of Land and Rural Studies 3(1)

Figure 1: Drivers of Land Use and Land Cover System

Socio-economic Driver of Change

Journal of Land and Rural Studies 3(1)

Number of Taluks in Each

Source: All India Soil & Landuse Survey (AISLUS) Atlas.

Source: All India Soil & Landuse Survey (AISLUS) Atlas.

Figure 2: Location Map of the Narmada River Basin

Journal of Land and Rural Studies 3(1)

Selected parameters for Narmada SEI:

Literacy rates (%)

Medical facilities (number)

Drinking water facility

Source: Data analysis by authors.

Drinking water facility: District-wise number of population benefited by

Journal of Land and Rural Studies 3(1)

Where, SI-1 to SI-7 = Sub index (1 to 7), a -1 to a -7 = Weightage of each

Organisation of Population Data at taluk level of analysis

Population of 1985 = Population of 1984* log(e) {power(Growth

Drinking water facility

Source: Data analysis by authors.

Table 3: Calculation of Weightage for the Narmada Socio-economic Parameters-2005

Source: Data analysis by authors.

Table 4: Computation of SEI for Narmada River Basin in 2005

SEX Final Population Final

Source: Data analysis by authors.

Figure 3: District-wise Socio-economic Classes (2005)

Source: Data analysis by authors.

Figure 4: District-wise Spatial Distribution of SEI (1985, 1995 and 2005)

Source: Data analysis by authors.

Figure 5: SEI as Point Layer (1985, 1995 and 2005)

Journal of Land and Rural Studies 3(1)

Figure 6: SEI as TIN (2005)

calculation and organisation of taluk-wise population data within the basin

Figure 7: SEI Raster (1985, 1995, and 2005)

Source: Data analysis by authors.

Dhari Mahal 126581

Ahmadabad 2530920 3280692 4220048

273971 1.019059 230514.9

1.012534 456868.2 1.020933

263038 1.020933 232837.8 1.019059 198037.6

143214 1.005034 147158.4 1.011723 132621.8

129266 1.005034 109996.4 1.011723 96297.22

202254 1.011723 184643.3

1.012534 208305.8 1.005034 169158.9 1.011723

1.012534 88847.46 1.005034 54121.25 1.011723 48777.77

1.012534 95367.36 1.005034 75135.12 1.011723 61975.93

1.012534 228612.8 1.005034

1.012534 181207.7 1.020933 301512.3 1.019059 292201.9

1.012534 203212.2 1.020933 175480.4 1.019059 148119.8

1.012534 225811.6 1.020933 333896.7 1.019059 281572.7

1.012534 4435644 1.020933 3564136 1.019059 2729452

Source: Data analysis by authors.

182223 1.020694 142701.8 1.024325 112121.8

153872 1.020694 206306.4 1.024325

481717 1.020694 382098.3 1.024325 286821.3

1.012534 126316.7 1.020694 102752.1 1.024325 89364.95

1.012534 400156.7 1.020694 431371.4 1.024325 338730.1

Population of 1985 = Population of 1984* log(e) {power(Growth