Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Introduction
M anagers spend enorm ous am ounts of tim e, energy, and m oney analyzing
the dem and for their p r o d u c t s - a n d it is not a sim ple task. C onsider Peter
D avidson, head of El Diario, New York's Spanish-Language daily new s
paper Trying to build revenues, h e raised the p ap er's price from 35 to 5
cents. A lthough h e expected only a 3 to 5 percent drop in circulation, the ac
tual decline exceeded 30 percent. In this and the follow ing chapters, we
focus attention on the theory of dem and, w hich sheds light on problem s
like Mr. D avidson's. In C hapter 5, w e will look m uch m ore closely at som e
of the techniques used to estim ate the dem and for a product.
1 These num bers are hypothetical, but adequate for present purposes. In subsequent
chapters, w e shall provide data describing the actual relationship betw een the p n c e and
quantity d em anded of various goods. At this point, the em phasis is on th e concept o
m arket dem and schedule, n ot on the detailed accu racy of these num bers.
TABLE 3.1
3,000
2,750
2,500
2,250
2,000
800
975
1,150
1,325
1,500
Price of
computer 3 00O
(dollars)
2,500
2,000
800
1,200
1,600
Quantity demanded
(thousands of units)
population
equal, the
course, the
tle effect in
Price of
computer
increases, one w ould expect that, if all other factors w ere held
quantity of personal com puters dem anded w ould go up. O f
population generally changes slowly, so this factor often has lit
the very short run.
Demand
curve
Quantity demanded
Price of
computer
Demand
curve
w here Q equals the num ber o f personal com puters dem anded in a particu
lar year, P is the average price of personal com puters in that year, I is per
capita disposable incom e during that year, S is the average price of softw are
during that year, and A is the am ount spent on advertising by producers of
personal com puters in that year. T he assum ption in equation (3.1) is, of
course, that the relationship is linear. (Also, w e assum e for sim plicity that
the population in the relevant m arket is essentially constant.)
G oing a step further, it generally is necessary for m anagers and analysts
to obtain num erical estim ates of the b's in equation (3.1). Em ploying the sta
tistical techniques described in Chapter 5, one usually can estim ate these socalled p a ra m e te rs of the dem and function. To illustrate the sorts of results
that m ight be obtained, w e m ight find that
Q = - 7 0 0 P + 2001 - 500S + 0.01 A.
Quantity demanded
(3.1)
(3.2)
Price of
computer
(dollars)
3,000
2,500
Q = - 7 0 0 P + 200(13,000) - 500(400)
+ .01(50,000,000),
(3 3 )
Q = 2,900,000 - 700P.
(3.4)
or
2,000
800
1,200
1,600
Quantity demanded
(thousands of units)
(3.5)
w hich is graphed (together with the dem and curve based on S = 400) in
Figure 3.4. Clearly, the dem and curve has shifted to the right, the quantity
dem anded bein g 100,000 m ore than w hen S = 400 (if P is held constant).
M arket dem and functions can be form ulated for individual firm s as well
as for entire industries. That is, one can form ulate an equation like equation
(3.2) to predict the sales of an individual producer of personal com puters.
In such an equation, the quantity dem anded of the firm 's good w ould be
inversely related to its price bu t directly related to the prices charged b y its
com petitors; and it w ould be directly related to its advertising expenditures
but inversely related to the advertising expenditures of its com petitors. It is
im portant to distinguish betw een industry and firm dem and functions,
since they are quite different. Both are im portant to m anagers, because
firm s often are interested in the effects of variables like disposable incom e
and advertising on industry sales, as well as on the sales of their own
firm w hich obviously is of prim ary significance.
maandeddtomnarnd T
es vmy with regard * the sensitivity of quan y ded ^ e f a T l f SOm! ?dS' a Sma11 chanSe in P * e results in a big
,n 8 n V
^ demanded' for oth goods, a big change in price results
demandae d t atnnSehm
dem anded' To
how sensitive quantity
i
f
i J
g6S m p n ce ' econm ists use a m easure called the price
n i l
dQ
P_
dP ' Q
i T ^ e n t fa c r e a s e fa t
L
the P t o ela S
Of H
t h a t L give m e d a s l l r a 3
2 ^ c e n t change in price.
(3-7)
^
PdCe f C tton shirts
* a
dem anded
* e U nited States. If so,
^ COtt n ?hirts is
C onvention dictates
( c o n c e p ts
Price
(dollars)
Demand curve,
price elasticity = 0
in
c o n t e x t
Tennis Anyone?
Demand curve,
price elasticity = co
Quantity
FIGURE 3.5 Demand Curves with Zero and Infin ite Price Elasticities of
Demand The demand curve is a vertical line if the price elasticity is zero and a
horizontal line if it is infinite.
price elasticity of dem and generally w ill vary from one point to another on
a dem and curve. For instance, the price elasticity of dem and m ay be higher
w hen the price of cotton shirts is high than w hen it is low. Similarly, the
price elasticity of dem and w ill vary from m arket to m arket. For exam ple,
India m ay have a different price elasticity of dem and for cotton shirts from
that of the U nited States.
T he price elasticity of dem and for a product m ust lie betw een zero and
infinity. If the price elasticity is zero, the dem and curve is a vertical line;
that is, the quantity dem anded is unaffected by price. If the price elasticity
is infinite, the dem and curve is a horizontal line; that is, an unlim ited
am ount can be sold at a particular price ($15 in Figure 3.5), bu t nothing can
be sold if the price is raised even slightly. Figure 3.5 show s these tw o limiting cases.
P ete S am pras
For further discussion, see New York Times, May 30, 1994.
Price
(cents p e r unit of commodity)
99.95
20,002
100.00
20,000
100.05
19,998
= -
-AP
jr.
4 -5
=
3 - 40
V=
61.67
5 -4
40~ *
The difference betw een these two results is very large. To avoid this diffi
culty, it is advisable to com pute the arc ela sticity o f dem and, w hich uses
the average value of P and Q:
40 - 3
_
,
V=
AQ
AP
(Qi + Q2)/2
(P1 + P2) / 2
AP(Q! + Q2Y
n
(3m
.8 )
where P1 and Q 1 are the first values of price and quantity dem anded, and P,
and Q 2 are the second set. Thus, in Table 3.3,
For instance, consider Table 3.2, w here data are given for very sm all incre
m ents in the price of a commodity. If w e w ant to estim ate the price elastic
ity of dem and w hen the price is betw een 99.95 cents and $1, w e obtain the
follow ing result:
_ 20,002 - 20,000 ^ 99.95 - 100 = 2
V
20,000
'
Price
(dollars p e r unit o f commodity)
3
4
50
40
40 - 3
4 -5
(40 + 3)/2
(4 + 5)/2
------------------------------------------------- = 7 .7 4
100
N ote that w e used $1 as P and 20,000 as Q. We could have used 99.95 cents
as P and 20,002 as Q, but it w ould h ave m ade no real difference to the answer.
But if w e have data concerning only large changes in price (that is, if AP
and AQ are large), the answ er m ay vary considerably depending on w hich
value of P and Q is used in equation (3.8). Consider the exam ple in Table
3.3. Suppose that w e w ant to estim ate the price elasticity of dem and in the
price range betw een $4 and $5. T hen , depending on w hich value of P and Q
TABLE 3.3
v .
(3.10)
Suppose that w e w ant to m easure the price elasticity of dem and w hen price
equals $3,000. At this point on the dem and curve (point A in Figure 3.1),
Q = 2,900,000 - 700(3,000)
= 800,000.
M w m = 2 -6 2 '
w hich m eans that the price elasticity of dem and equals 2.62.
As a further illustration, let's calculate the price elasticity of demand
w hen price equals $2,000 rather than $3,000. A t this point on the demand
curve (point B in Figure 3.1),
Q = 2,900,000 - 700(2,000)
Quantity
demanded (Q )
= 1,500,000.
Since d Q / d P = - 7 0 0 ,
FIGURE 3.6 Values of the Price Elasticity of Demand at Various Points along
a Linear Demand Curve The price elasticity increases as price rises, approach
ing infinity as quantity approaches zero.
g
. = 700) ( 2' - I = 0.93.
/
BP
Q
K
\1,500,000
Thus, the price elasticity of dem and equals 0.93.
A n im portant thing to note is that the price elasticity of dem and can vary
greatly from point to point on a particular dem and curve. A s w e have just
seen, on the dem and curve in Figure 3.1, the price elasticity of dem and is
2.62 at point A, bu t only 0.93 at point B. For any linear dem and curve, the
price elasticity of dem and w ill vary from zero to infinity, as show n in Figure
3.6. If
P = a-bQ ,
w here a is the intercept of the dem and curve on the price axis, and b is the
slope (in absolute term s) of the dem and curve, it follow s that
e - il*
P _ _ 1_ a ~ bQ
dP ' Q ~
b'
Clearly, if the dem and curve is linear, the price elasticity approaches zero as
P ( = a - bQ) gets very sm all, and approaches infinity as Q gets very small.
SUmers [ L. the P roduct equals the quantity dem anded tim es the price
7*
s situation/if the price is reduced, the percentage increase in
hi f u dem anded is greater than the percentage reduction in price (since
folln
T S fr m the definition of the P rice elasticity of dem and). It then
s
ws that a price reduction m ust lead to an increase in the total am ount
pent by consum ers on the com m odity. Sim ilarly, if the dem and is price
(3-lD
a n a ly z in g m a n a g e r ia l d e c is io n s
w here Q is the quantity dem anded of the good, P is its price, and m is some
constant. This kind of dem and curve is of unitary elasticity at all points.
Thus, changes in price have no effect on the total am ount spent on the
product. It is evident from equation (3.11) that, regardless of the price, the
total am ount spent on the product will be m ($10 m illion in Figure 3.7).
Price
(dollars)
Demand
curve
10
Quantity (millions)
FIGURE 3.7 D e m a n d Curve with Unitary Elasticity at All Points The demand
curve is a rectangular hyperbola if the price elasticity of demand is always 1.
Price
(dollars)
To its producers, the total am ount of m oney spent on a product equals their
total revenue. Thus, to the Ford M otor Com pany, the total am ount spent on
its cars (and oth er products) is its total revenue. Suppose that the demand
curve for a firm 's product is linear; that is,
P = a-bQ ,
Demand is
price elastic
(3.12)
w here a is the intercept on the price axis, and b is the slope (in absolute
term s), as show n in panel A of Figure 3.8. Thus, the firm 's total revenue
equals
Marginal
revenue
= a-2bQ
TR = P Q
= (a - bQ )Q
= a Q - bQ 2.
(3.13)
Demand is
price inelastic
a/ 2b
Quantity
demanded (Q)
Dollars
dTR
= ^
_ d(aQ - bQ 2)
dQ
= a - 2bQ ,
(3-14)
Total revenue
= aQ - b Q 2
w hich is also show n in panel A of Figure 3.8. C om paring the m arginal rev
enue curve w ith the dem and curve, w e see that both have the sam e inter
cept on the vertical axis (this intercept bein g a), but that the m arginal
revenue curve has a slope that (in absolute term s) is tw ice that of the de
m and curve.
A ccording to the definition in equation (3.7), the price elasticity of de
m and, rj, equals - ( d Q / d P ) (P / Q ). Thus, since d Q / d P = - 1 / b and P =
a - bQ, it follow s that in this case,
1
V
a-bQ
Q
(3.15)
0
B
Quantity
demanded (Q)
Tou V rpI ! ; ! Re>? onshif >***** Price Elasticity, M arginal Revenue, and
in
= Hq -
d(P Q)
dQ
MR =
dQ
dP
M R = P - % + Q - ttzdQ
dQ
Because d Q / d Q = 1,
TABLE 3.4
MR = P + Q
= P I +
dP
Commodity
dQ
Q
p
dP
dQy
A nd since the definition of the price elasticity of dem and im plies that
Q / P d P / d Q = - l / v ,
MR = P |1
k)
*>
Tomatoes (fresh)
Restaurant meals
Glassware
Taxi service
Radios, TV service
Furniture
Housing
Alcohol
Movies
Air travel (foreign)
Shoes
Legal services
Auto repair
Medical insurance
Gasoline and oil
s urce. H. Houthakker and L. Taylor, Consumer Demand in the United States, 2d ed.
Ch. 3
/Demand Theory
TABLE 3.5
Europe
Price
elasticity
Income
elasticity
First class
Regular economy
0.45
1.30
Excursion
1.83
1.50
1.38
2.37
Type o f ticket
Source: J. Cigliano, Price and Income Elasticities for Airline Travel: The North Atlantic
Market, Business Economics (September 1980).
the price elasticity of dem and for first-class air tickets is relatively low, they
have nudged up the prices for such tickets.
It is im portant to recognize that no m anager interested in m axim izing
profit will set price at a point w here the dem and for his or h er product is
price inelastic. To see w hy this is a m istake, recall from equation (3.16) that
marginal revenue m ust be negative if dem and is price inelastic (that is, if
r| < 1). If m arginal revenue is negative, a firm can increase its profit by rais
ing its price and low ering its output. W hy? Because its total revenue w ill in
crease if it sells less. (This, after all, is w hat it m eans to say that m arginal
revenue is negative.) Since the firm 's total cost will not rise if less is sold, its
profits will go up if it sells less.
M arket researchers are continually engaged in studies to estim ate the
price elasticity of dem and for particular products. T he results enable firm s
to answer questions like: H ow m uch of an increase in sales can w e expect if
we reduce our price by 5 percent? To increase the am ount we sell by 10 per
cent, how m uch m ust w e reduce price? These are fundam ental questions of
the sort that firm s confront repeatedly.
For exam ple, take the soft drink industry. T he price elasticity of dem and
or Koyal Crow n Cola has been estim ated to be about 2.4, w hich m eans that
e am ount sold is very sensitive to price. A 1 percent reduction in the price
in a
Wn C ola (holding * e prices of its com petitors constant) results
a 2.4 percent increase in the quantity sold. C oke is even m ore price elasPricpZ Pr v f u f f 7 b d n g ab Ut 5 -5 Thus' a 1 Percent reduction in the
Perronf 6 ^
the Pn ces of its com petitors constant) results in a 5.5
Crown
^ ^
^uantity sold -3 Clearly, the m anagers of Royal
and
n
inform ation to function effectively and they
^ 'n such f o r m a t i o n mberS ^
aCr SS ^
for Es
To see m ore specifically how m anagers use inform ation concerning the
price elasticity of dem and for their products, let's consider in m ore detail
the im portant topic of pricing. A ccording to equation (3.16),
MR = P (l - i j .
From C hapter 2, w e know that m arginal revenue equals m arginal cost if a
firm is m axim izing profit, w hich m eans that
MC = p ( l -
(3.17)
m c (
(3 i8 )
1/2
20 dollars.
For present purposes, the central point to note is that the optim al price
depends heavily on the price elasticity of dem and. H olding constant the
value of m arginal cost, a product's optim al price is inversely related to its
price elasticity of dem and. Thus, if the sh irt's price elasticity of demand
w ere 5 rather than 2, its optim al price w ould be
P = 10
As was stressed in previous sections, price is not the only factor that influ
ences the quantity dem anded of a product. A nother im portant factor is the
level of m oney incom e am ong the consum ers in the m arket If shoppers
have plenty of m oney to spend, the quantity dem anded of m en 's suits is
likely to be greater than it w ould b e if they w ere poverty-stricken Or if in
comes in a particular city are high, the quantity dem anded of cognac is
likely to be greater than it w ould be if incom es w ere low.
The in c o m e e la s tic ity o f d e m a n d for a particular good is defined to be
the percentage change in quantity dem anded resulting fro m a 1 percent change in
consumers' income. M ore precisely, it equals
_ dQ
I
SI " q
where Q is quantity dem anded, and I is consum ers' incom e. F o r som e prod
ucts, the incom e elasticity o f dem and is positive, indicating that increases in
consum ers m oney incom e result in increases in the am ount of the good
consumed. For exam ple, one w ould generally expect luxury item s like
gourm et foods to have positive incom e elasticities. O ther goods have nega
tive incom e elasticities, indicating that increases in m oney incom e result in
ira d e s T f m
l i c l l c u l w th
'
g ght h aW neS ative incom e elasticities.
corf an
all ccom
o r nmeodities
d V 6 mCT
^ constant.
tlCity f d6m and' * is assum ed that the P ^ e s
are held
lo w f h L t
Firms m aking n
tiv d y Z i d i r r
gh inC m e elaStidtieS are likeIy to grow relam lfn
P
m6S nSe m an expanding economy, w hereas firm s
m aking products w ith low incom e elasticities are likely to experience m Z
m odest expansion. O n the other hand, if the econom y i s j o lte d b y a s e Z
c o ~ t i c m t r T r / i 1sharpiy-firms mak- g ^
those m aking products
e S t S i^
m ajor pro'ducte
1 - 1/5
f
T ^ r
S
^
*
f d"
iS f ^
to p
7
g ry C h W and M ichigan State's
ss
= 12l/i dollars
G iven the im portance of the price elasticity of dem and in determ ining the
optim al price of a product, it is not hard to see w hy m anagers are so intent
on obtaining at least rough estim ates of its value. (In Chapters 11 to 13, we
will say m uch m ore about optim al pricing policies.)
(3-19)
m a n d f e lir s ^
a 1.50 percent increase m the quantity dem anded of such tickets.
Ch. 3
/Demand Theory
CONSULTANTS CORNER
TABLE 3.6
States
___________ _
In c o m e e la s tic ity o f d e m a n d
C o m m o d ity
1.54
1.49
1.48
1.42
1.40
Alcohol
Housing, owner-occupied
Furniture
Dental services
Restaurant meals
Shoes
Medical insurance
Gasoline and oil
Butter
Coffee
Margarine
Flour
1.10
0.92
0.48
0.42
0
0.20
-0 .3 6
Source: H. Houthakker and L. Taylor, Consumer Dem and in the United States.
Table 3 6 show s the incom e elasticity of dem and for other com m odities. In
m e a s u r i n g incom e elasticities, incom e can b e defined as the aggregate mcom e of consum ers (as in Table 3.6) or as p er capita m com e (as m the nex
section), depending on the circum stances.
$ $
Country
Thousands o f tons
consum ed p e r ye a r
United States
Canada
Japan
France
United Kingdom
Germany
Other European countries
Total
90
14
110
35
16
8
22
295
711
10/000
I 1,700
m i
= .24.
Thus, the incom e elasticity of dem and equals .24, w hich m eans that a 1 per
cent increase in per capita disposable incom e is associated w ith a .24 per
cent increase in the quantity dem anded of good X.
G oodX
E le ctricity
C a lifo rn ia o ra n g e s
B utter
Pork
Besides price and incom e, still another factor influencing the quantity de
m anded of a product is the price of other com m odities. H olding constant
the product's ow n price (as w ell as the level of m oney incom es) and allow
ing the price of another product to vary m ay result in im portant effects on
the quantity dem anded of the product in question. By observing these ef
fects, w e can classify pairs of com m odities as s u b s titu te s or c o m p le m e n ts ,
and w e can m easure how close the relationship (either substitute or com
plem entary) is. C onsider two com m odities, good X and good Y. If good Y's
price goes up, w hat is the effect on Qx, the quantity of good X that is de
m anded? T h e cross e la s tic ity o f d e m a n d is defined as the percentage change
in the quantity dem anded o f good X resulting fro m a 1 percent change in the price
o f good Y. Expressed in term s of derivatives,
/ v i/
. Jx _
Q
(3.20)
py
Natural gas
Florida interior oranges
Margarine
Beef
+ 0.20
+0.14
+0.67
+0.14
=
'xa
dp
G ood Y
= 0.5 Py
Q
Although the value of the cross elasticity w ill depend on the values of P
and Qx, the goods w ill alw ays be substitutes, since T} m ust be positive, re
gardless o f the values of Py and Qx. If Py = 500 and Q x = 1,500,
/ 500 ,
^ = a5( W = -1 7 The cross elasticity of dem and is of fundam ental im portance to firm s be
cause they continually m ust do their best to anticipate w hat w ill happen to
their ow n sales if their rivals change their prices. To do so, they need infor
mation concerning the cross elasticities of dem and. Table 3.7 show s the
cross elasticities of dem and for selected pairs of com m odities. In C hapter 5,
we will take up som e of the statistical techniques used to estim ate them.
(3.21)
VA = -8 2 q a /Q
a n a ly z in g m a n a g e r ia l d e c is io n s
If
103
$2,
nA = .82 (2) = 1.64.
This elasticity is useful because it tells the firm 's m anagers that a 1 percent
increase in advertising expenditure results in a 1.64 percent increase in the
quantity dem anded. In later chapters, w e shall see how inform ation of this
sort can be used to help guide m ajor m anagerial decisions.
M ay 1994
355.000
1.024.000
325.000
392.000
518.000
993.000
277.000
402.000
London Times
Daily Telegraph
Independent
Guardian
(a) Based on these figures, what
was the price elasticity of dem and for
the London Tim es? (b) W as the cross
electricity of dem and betw een the
D a ily Telegraph and the London
Tim es positive o r negative? W ould
you expect it to be positive or nega
tive? W hy? (c) Did this price reduction
increase o r decrease the London
Tim ess total revenue from new spaper
sales? (d) Based on new spaper sales
=
518,000 - 355,000
~~355,000 + 5 1 8 ,0 0 0 \
August 1993
(3 22)
P to B lten. lb s B a n s te y
la b ile
nos
N e w Y orkpf vi/W iB . p is
vvav***tofTwo
in :ha i w e vailoy
T o ca y'3 tofcert. p a g i 3 a
30 - 45
: 45 + 30 = .93.
Summary
Ch. 3 / Demand Theory
T his assum es th a t the dem and curve
did not shift betw een A ugust 1993 and
M ay 1994. (b) Positive, since a cut in
the price of the London Tim es re
duced the quantity sold of the D aily
Telegraph. It w ould be expected to be
positive since the London Tim es and
the D aily Telegraph are substitutes, (c)
Total revenue from new spaper sales
fell from 355,000 X 45 pence =
15,975,000 pence to 518,000 X 30
(3.25)
Since this equation is linear in the logarithm s, the param eters a, bv and
j __Can readily be estim ated by regression analysis. In C hapter 5, w e will
learn how such estim ates can b e made.
Summary
Thus,
- * B ..L =b
dP
Q
1
(3.23)
= Q.
I w
Thus,
S Q .l = b
dl
Q
r
(3.24)
1. The m arket dem and curve for a product show s how m uch of the prod
uct will be dem anded at each price. T he m arket dem and curve shifts in
response to changes in tastes, incom es, the prices of oth er products, and
the size of the population.
2. The m arket dem and function for a product is an equation show ing how
the quantity dem anded depends on the product's price, the incom es of
consum ers, the prices of other products, advertising expenditure, and
additional factors. H olding all factors other than the prod u ct's price con
stant, one can derive the m arket dem and curve for the product from the
m arket dem and function. M arket dem and functions can b e form ulated
for individual firm s as w ell as for entire industries.
3. The price elasticity of dem and is the percentage change in quantity de
m anded resulting from a 1 percent change in price; m ore precisely, it
equals ( d Q/ d P) (P/Q). W hether a price increase (or decrease) results in
an increase in the total am ount spent by consum ers on a product de
pends on the price elasticity of demand.
4. M arginal revenue is the change in total revenue resulting from a 1-unit
increase in quantity; that is, it equals the derivative of total revenue w ith
respect to quantity. M arginal revenue equals P (1 1 /17), w here P is
price and 77 is the price elasticity of demand.
3- The price elasticity of dem and for a product tends to b e high if the prod
uct has a large num ber of close substitutes. A lso, it often tends to be
higher in the long run than in the short run. It is som etim es asserted that
the dem and for a product is relatively price inelastic if the product ac-