Netaji Subhas Institute of Technology

Delhi University
Dwarka, New Delhi
Instrumentation and Control Engineering

Chaos Theory

Submitted By

Submitted To:

Ayush Bhatnagar
Choudhary

Ms. Tanushree

447/IC/13

Report Writing

ICE 1

IC 221

Chaos Theory- A Brief Summary

Chaos is the science of surprises, of the nonlinear and the
unpredictable.
Chaos explains how small changes reflect in larger systems be it
as complex as electric circuits, lasers, fluids, chemical reactions or
as simple as the pendulum. It also has been thought possibly to
occur in the stock market. An explanation for chaos is established
by the Butterfly Effect and the Lorenz Attractor. The Butterfly
Effect says flapping of the wings of a butterfly here can cause a
hurricane at some other place. A tiny difference in initial
parameters will result in a completely different behavior of a
complex system. Edward N. Lorenz uses Fractals to explain the
Chaos Theory. Fractal Theory helps us in the understanding of the
Lorenz Attractor, a figure which explains Chaos theory. The Chaos
theory also helps us in the study of complex non linear chaotic
systems such as double pendulums, which are practically used
everywhere in science today. The practicality of chaos theory
makes it one of the most relevant and interesting theories in the
world.

(i)

Introduction
The trouble with weather forecasting is that it's right too often for
us to ignore it and wrong too often for us to rely on it.
Patrick Young
Chaos is from the Greek word Khaos, meaning "gaping void". There are many
explanations as to who or what Chaos is, but most theories state that it was
the void from which all things developed into a distinctive entity, or in which
they existed in a confused and amorphous shape before they were separated
into genera With inquisitive scientific minds like ours, finding out causes of
simple events, however random or particular they might be, causes us to
delve into Chaos Theory. Chaos theory is the study of nonlinear dynamics,
in which seemingly random events are actually predictable from simple
deterministic equations. We also discuss The Butterfly Effect based on
similar observations by Edward Lorenz. With a little knowledge of calculus,
we delve into the mathematical aspect of chaos, Fractal Geometry. Using it
we also discuss The Lorenz Attractor, a model to demonstrate the chaotic
theory. We would like first of all to sketch some of the main steps in the
historical development of the concept of chaos in dynamical systems, from
the mathematical point of view.

1. The Butterfly Effect

A Groundbreaking
Proposition
1.1 The History:
The concept of the butterfly effect is attributed to Edward Norton Lorenz, a
mathematician and meteorologist, who was one of the first proponents
of chaos theory. Edward Lorenz, a meteorology professor at MIT, entered
some numbers into a computer program simulating weather patterns and
then left his office to get a cup of coffee while the machine ran. When he
returned, he noticed a result that would change the course of science. On
this day, Lorenz was repeating a simulation hed run earlierbut he had
rounded off one variable from .506127 to .506. To his surprise, that tiny
alteration drastically transformed the whole pattern his program produced,
over two months of simulated weather. This idea that small causes can have
very large effects, what has now become the idea in chaos theory that
outcomes can be very sensitively dependent on initial conditions, was
popularized as the Butterfly Effect after a talk Lorenz gave in 1972 at the
American Association for the Advancement of Science.

1.2 History of the Study of Chaos

1.3 The Theory What Happened

Next:
Newtonian laws of physics are completely deterministic: they assume that, at
least theoretically, precise measurements are possible, and that more
precise measurement of any condition will yield more precise predictions
about past or future conditions. The assumption was that - in theory, at least
- it was possible to make nearly perfect predictions about the behavior of any
physical system if measurements could be made precise enough and that
the more accurate the initial measurements were, the more precise would be
the resulting predictions.
The butterfly effect, also known as sensitive dependence on initial
conditions, has a profound corollary: forecasting the future can be nearly
impossible.
Poincare discovered that in some astronomical systems (generally consisting
of three or more interacting bodies), even very tiny errors in initial
measurements would yield enormous unpredictability, far out of proportion
with what would be expected mathematically. Two or more identical sets of
initial condition measurements - which according to Newtonian physics would
yield identical results - in fact, most often led to vastly different outcomes.
Poincare proved mathematically that, even if the initial measurements could
be made a million times more precise, that the uncertainty of prediction for
outcomes did not shrink along with the inaccuracy of measurement, but
remained huge. That the tiny change in his simulation mattered so much
showed, by extension, that the imprecision inherent in any human
measurement could become magnified into wildly incorrect forecasts.

Edward Lorenz

Henri Poincar

1.4 Practical Applications of Chaos

Theory :
Lorenzs work has also led to improvements in weather forecasting, which he
credited to three things: wider data collection, better modeling, and the
recognition of chaos in the weather, leading to whats called ensemble
forecasting. In this technique, forecasters recognize that measurements are
imperfect and thus run many simulations starting from slightly different
conditions; the features these scenarios share form the basis of a more
reliable consensus forecast.
Although Chaos Theory may appear to be an abstract concept within modern
science, it has many applications within our lives.

Washing machine manufacturers have used chaotic motion to improve

the performance of their machines. A tiny pump vibrates with chaotic
cycles to stir the water more efficiently.
The stock market is a good example as although it is somewhat
random it does follow some trends
Weather forecasting is chaotic, as we know from Lorenz's discoveries.
The human heart also has a chaotic pattern. The time between beats
doesn't remain constant but also depends on a persons activity and
stress. This analysis of the heartbeat can help medical researchers in
controlling irregular heartbeats.
The solar system contains many chaotic patterns.
The motion of gas in a vacuum is chaotic. Although the particles are
flying everywhere, they follow structure and pattern.
Fractals are used to produce many of the modern computer art we see
in latest films.

2.2 An Example of Fractals with

Fractional Dimensions- Sierpinskis
Triangle
Sierpinski's Triangle demonstrates this quite well: a triangle within smaller
triangles within smaller triangles within ever smaller triangles, on and on.
Many shapes in nature display this same quality of self-similarity. Clouds,
ferns, coastlines, mountains, etc. all possess this feature.

Sierpinskis Triangle and its fractal dimensions

2.3 The Lorenz Attractor Fractal

Edward Lorenz, a curious meteorologist, was looking for a way to model the
action of the chaotic behavior of a gaseous system. Hence, he took a few
equations from the physics field of fluid dynamics, simplified them, and got

the following 3-D system

Here , , and make up the system state, is time, and , , are the
system parameters.
represents the "Prandtl number," the ratio of the fluid viscosity of a
substance to its thermal conductivity; however, one does not have to know
the exact value of this constant; hence, Lorenz simply used 10. The variable
" " represents the difference in temperature between the top and bottom of
the gaseous system. The variable " " is the width to height ratio of the box
which is being used to hold the gas in the gaseous system. Lorenz used 8/3
for this variable. The resultant x of the equation represents the rate of
rotation of the cylinder, "y" represents the difference in temperature at
opposite sides of the cylinder, and the variable "z" represents the deviation
of the system from a linear, vertical graphed line representing temperature.
If one were to plot the three differential equations on a three-dimensional
plane, using the help of a computer of course, no geometric structure or
even complex curve would appear; instead, a weaving object known as the
Lorenz Attractor appears. Because the system never exactly repeats itself,
the trajectory never intersects itself.

Figure 1: The Lorenz Attractor

3.Chaos and Chaotic

Systems
3.1 What are Chaotic Systems?
It is a Complex system that shows sensitivity to initial conditions, such as
an economy, a stock market, or weather. In such systems
any uncertainty (no matter how small) in the beginning will produce rapidly
escalating and compounding errors in the prediction of
the system's future behavior. To make an accurate prediction of longterm behavior of such systems, the initial conditions must be known in their
entirety and to an infinite level of accuracy.
The typical features of a chaotic system include:
Nonlinearity. If it is linear, it cannot be chaotic.
Determinism. It has deterministic (rather than probabilistic) underlying
rules every future state of the system must follow.
Sensitivity to initial conditions. Small changes in its initial state can
lead to radically different behavior in its final state. This butterfly effect
allows the possibility that even the slight perturbation of a butterfly flapping
its wings can dramatically affect whether sunny or cloudy skies will
predominate days later.
Sustained irregularity in the behavior of the system: Hidden order
including a large or infinite number of unstable periodic patterns (or

motions). This hidden order forms the infrastructure of irregular chaotic

systems---order in disorder for short.
Long-term prediction is mostly impossible due to sensitivity to initial
conditions, which can be known only to a finite degree of precision.
A simple example of a chaotic system in computer science is a pseudorandom number generator. The underlying rule in this case is a simple
deterministic formula. However, the resulting solutions, such as the pseudorandom numbers are very irregular and unpredictable. We also note that a
small change in the initial condition (seed) can yield a significantly different
sequence of random numbers. These pseudo-random number generators are
chaotic but also periodic with certain periods. Such generators viewed
carefully yield the hidden order characteristic of chaos.

3.2 Some More Examples of

Chaotic Systems

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Chaos theory studies the behavior of dynamic systems that are highly
sensitive to initial conditions. Thus, the deterministic nature of these systems
does not make them predictable.
Most physical system are chaotic, so it is easy to name some examples of
chaotic systems. Here are a few:
1) Double pendulum:

It is a pendulum with another pendulum attached to its end, and is a simple

physical system that exhibits rich dynamic behavior with a strong sensitivity
to initial conditions. The double pendulum undergoes chaotic motion, and
shows a sensitive dependence on initial conditions.

Figure 2 : Motion of the double compound pendulum

2) The bifurcation diagram of the logistic map:

The bifurcation parameter r is shown on the horizontal axis of the plot and the
vertical axis shows the possible long-term population values of the logistic
function.

3.3Application of Chaotic Systems

4.aConclusion
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Chaos has already had a lasting effect on science, yet there is much still
left to be discovered. Many scientists believe that twentieth century
science will be known for only three theories: relativity, quantum
mechanics, and chaos. Chaos shows up everywhere around the world.
From the currents of the ocean and the flow of blood through fractal blood
vessels to the branches of trees and the effects of turbulence, chaos has
inescapably become part of modern science. As chaos changed from a
little-known theory to a full science of its own, it has received widespread
publicity. Chaos theory has changed the direction of science: in the eyes
of the general public, physics is no longer simply the study of subatomic
particles in a billion-dollar particle accelerator, but the study of chaotic
systems and how they work.

5. Bibliography

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http://en.wikipedia.org/
http://www.abarim-publications.com/
http://www.wisegeek.org/
http://fractalfoundation.org/
http://www.referenceforbusiness.com/
http://www.quora.com/
http://mathworld.wolfram.com/
http://perso.ens-lyon.fr/
http://www.plouffe.fr/
http://functionspace.org/

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