ISSN: 2277-5536 (Print); 2277-5641 (Online)

SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF CRITICAL RAINFALLS IN HORMOZGAN

Ghahraman Javadizadeh
Department of Environment, Bandar Abbas Branch, Islamic Azad University, Bandar Abbas, IRAN.
Page

ABSTRACT
The aim of this study was spatial analysis of critical precipitation in Hormozgan. In order to
achieve this, daily observations of the precipitation in 18 synoptic meteorological stations were
selected during the statistical period of (2007-1993). During this period 749914 daily reports were
reviewed which 6166 of them have daily precipitation. In order to evaluate the status of daily
rainfall, particularly in the province borders, in addition to the synoptic stations of province,
nearest synoptic stations outside the province were selected. In assessment of Hormozgan rainfall
hazard, eight indicators were determined: coefficient of variation of daily rainfall, days with 30
mm rainfall and more, maximum rainfall in one day (mm), the longest period of dry days, the
longest period of wet days, the amount of precipitation above the 90th percentile over the years,
the amount of precipitation above the 95th percentile over the years, total rainfall in three-day
humid periods and during the year. After calculation, determined indicators maps were plotted and
interpreted in arc GIS. The best way of interpolation in mapping was inverse distance weighted.
On the other hand, kriging methods of the amount of rainfall have shown no spatial correlation.
Research findings show that in comparison with other indicators, the coefficient of variation, the
longest period of dry days and maximum daily rainfall have higher effect in critical precipitation.
Environmental indicators in the province declare that thanks to poor vegetation cover daily heavy
rain cause to increase in the runoff coefficient and lead to serious injury. The results show that the
most critical area in terms of precipitation is Jask region that is the first in 6 of 8 indicators.
Bashagerd elevations are in the second rank. Lowest crisis rainfall is in the north of Hormozgan
(Haji Abad) that in all eight selective indexes has the lowest crisis.
KEYWORDS: heavy precipitations, critical precipitations, Hormozgan
INTRODUCTION
The climate events and disasters can be divided into three main groups, meteorological (storms, rainfalls
floods), hydrological events (flooding),and finally geophysical events (earthquakes and volcanoes).among
this, the heavy and floods rainfalls due to the frequency and repeated occurrence, intensity and extent of
performance and damage is very remarkable particularly that nowadays with the development of
urbanization and lack of water permeability its damage is significant in overpopulation centers.
Basically clear and comprehensive definition of critical rainfall or hazardous rainfall that is public
acceptable cannot be found. May be various variables that directly or indirectly are involved in critical
events makes the definition of this term to be difficult. The definition of critical rainfall in Iran is difficult
namely it is unclear what conditions that we know the critical one for example, the same amount of snow
and cold rainfall that occur in Iran, in many countries of the world is not only a crisis but also is normal and
favorable conditions. Therefore critical rainfall has the definition depends on the location and time. It seems
critical rainfall are rainfalls that result of events and natural and human actions occur suddenly and is
considered a threat for human society, economy, infrastructures and the environment.
One of the climatic hazards is a critical and dangerous rainfalls that sometimes is caused by infrastructural
damage, financial and event spirit (Blumenfeld, et al., 2010). In recent years, the effects of global warming
minimum raining patterns and the maximum has strengthened and droughts frequencies occurrence,
flooding and pluvial storms have been increased (dore.2005 and Zhang, et al, 2008). By the beginning of
the twentieth century, raining in the worlds droughts surface show a significant increase of 2% (Halme, et

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al., 1998). But in terms of spatial and temporal is not uniformly (Karland Knight, 1998 and Doherty, et al.,
1999).
Critical rainfalls, the simulating factor is considered for floodwaters and droughts that impose considerable
pressure over the water resources (yang, et al., 2009) and (zhang, et al., 2008). In addition this rainfalls may
affect the agricultural practices, soil vulnerability for erosion, the conditions changes of plant growth and
the land user management change (Scholz, et al. 2008). In assessing the intense rainfalls occurrence of state
of Connecticut (USA), three features the volume, duration and storm intensity peak, study and showed that
between volume and duration of storm, positive relation and between volume and intensity peak, there is a
negative relation (Wang et al., 2010).
Flowler et al study(2005)about the future changes of UK severe rainfalls by using climate regional
model(rcm)and with method of hadrm3h showed that the observed data with simulated data with a return
period the more than 50 years in some parts of England show a significant correlation. Observed trends and
climate regional models in the Middle East show that climate change have the complex effects on over
regional rainfall (Samuels, 2009).
Climatological and topographic diversity on the one hand and increasing rate of population and the use of
natural resources on the other hand have caused that Iran country to be placed at various risks (alijan,1386).
So that the 40 natural disasters in the world the 31 of its cases have been recorded in Iran. Among the
environmental instabilities, climatological hazards, it contains a high percentage of it (Perry and Hollis,
2005).
One of the problems of climatological of Hormozgan province that to agriculture sector, the environment
,and in particular to the regions economy has imposed is occurrence of critical rainfalls and dangerous that
sometimes has affected and impose serious damage to vulnerable areas, especially Minab-Jask axis and
province agricultural poles like Minab and Rudan to farmers imposes enormous damages and is cause
farmland flood victim, roads destroyed, electricity pillar and road and creates the disturbances in the routine
life.
Our current knowledge of damages and hazardous rainfalls consequences in Hormozgan is little and only
in field studies and published statistics of some executive establishment its effects can be found.
According to Hormozgan governor crisis management has imposed gounu storm occurrence in June in 86
to kill 2 people and huge financial damages from east of Hormozgan until Bandar Abbas and according to
the same source during 2 days of raining in November 1391 more than 30 billion dollars to agriculture,
ways of communication and water supply network of province were damaged. The goal of this paper is to
identify the indices to explain critical rainfalls and their location dispersion in the province of Hormozgan.
Hence due to the importance of extreme rainfalls in routine life, their locations identify can be a useful role
for the sustainable development programs and crisis management planning and risk management have.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The province of Hormozgan with a range of approximately 71193.5 km (53 41
till 59 15 eastern
and 25 24 till 28 57 northern) is located in the northern coast of the Persian Gulf and Oman Sea. The
average annual temperature is 26.5
and weight average equal to 170.2 mm (2007-1993) and annual
rainfall between 126 till 250 mm is fluctuate. According to the Demarton Classification System, span under
study has a dry climate and winter season and the rainiest season of the year and summer the least rainfall
is received.
In the province of Hormozgan rainfall distribution due to the atmospheric systems from two Mediterranean
and seasonal causing rain system has been affected. Mediterranean system year cold period rainfalls and
seasonal system that the south east are entered into the country are creates the hot period of year in this
province (Alijani 1995).
Nowadays routine raining data are broadly used in the critical rainfalls analysis and diagnosis space-time
patterns in throughout the world (fowler and Kilsby, 2003). Lana et al(2005)in rainfall irregularities
investigation of fabra station in Spain have used following criteria: the amount of total rainfall, rainfall

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days over one tenth millimeter, daily rainfall intensity, the ratio of 90 and 95 percentiles rainfall to high of
total year rainfall. Although Benhv et al (2005) in temporal and spatial distribution of china have used
deciles groups and the tenth deciles as intense rainfall have considered. They found that in china the last
deciles is makes up about 50 percent of annual rainfall. Some of researches pay attention to the duration of
the rainfall and believe that the continuity of rainfall, even with low intensity creation the damage. For
example, Kruger (Kruger, 2006) in a study of daily rainfalls in south Africa used following indicators:
annual rainfall, the longest period of dry days, the longest period of wet days, high rainfall of 90 and 95
percentiles, number of days with rainfall more than 30 mm and more, one day highest rainfall in a year, the
highest rainfall the period of 3 days in a year. Alijani(1386) in identifying the hazardous rainfalls of 4 index
as follows has been used: rainfall days 30 mm and more, the amount of rainfalls over the 90 th percentile
during the year, wet periods rainfall total of 5 days or more during the year and the variation coefficient of
daily rainfall. In this study it has been tried to use more comprehensive indicators and sub-indicators 8 to
identify the Hormozgan critical rainfalls:
1-the variation coefficient of daily rainfall 2-rainfall days 30 mm and more 3-rainfall maximum in a day
(mm) 4-the longest period of dry days 5-the longest period of wet days 6-the amount of rainfall over the 90
th percentile during the year 7-the amount of rainfall over the 95 th percentile during the year 8-wet periods
rainfall total of 3 days and more during the year
In relation to wet periods of rainfall, total of 3 days and more during the year, most researchers considered
as an index the wet period 5 days but because in the very dry and low rain climate of Hormozgan, wet
periods 5 days at most stations did not happen so wet period 3 day was selected for identification.
In this paper in order to have spatial analysis of Hormozgan of critical rainfalls of daily raining, the
observations from 18 isometropia meteorological stations that long-term were statistics enjoy from the year
1993 until 2007 were extracted(table 1 and figure 1). In this statistical period the number of 749,914 of
daily report in 93,712 days were recorded that these report number the day 6166 had been raining. These
observations of irimo that monitoring officially, doing meteorological data collecting and gathering has
been obtained. To extract daily raining first all the reports of 3-hour that are as the sinop codes were isolated
with programming in processing excel environment and as the calculations information for doing the
statistical analysis.
In order to investigate the status of daily rainfall, especially in province borders, in addition to the
isometropia stations inside the province, nearest isometropia stations outside the province were also
selected. These stations have shown in figure1. Among these three Darab station, Haji Abad and Qeshm
during their statistical period has been less and since the each station alone investigate and calculated on
the other hand the number of rainfall days is high, hence in the research results and findings does not
ambiguity create.
After extraction of daily raining, statistical control and ensure of data accuracy, the amounts of everyone
the statistical indicators 8 by using the statistical sources and programming in excel environment, extraction
and its results in table 2 has been inserted. Then maps of each of indicators in arc gis software environment
based on the lowest estimated standard error were drawn.
In drawing maps the best interpolation, suitable weighted method with inverse distance was shown. On the
other hand in kriging methods that amount of raining have been not shown any type of spatial correlation.
After drawing daily raining maps of selection indices, by using mentioned software, cells out of the province
were removed. For zoning each of the indicators on the map, the number of statistical population classes
based on Sturgis rule(relation1)and data classes interval also expressed with relation 2(nikukar;1377):

equation
2-equation

k=1+3.322 logn

R
K

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In equation of (1), k shows the number of categories and n indicates the number of data and in equation (2)
r shows the range of changes.
Table 1: synoptic meteorological characteristics of the study
Page

(
m
altitude
6.6
5525

Latitude

Longitude

5225 n
5935 n

2525 e
2612 e

Statistical
years
3991-5552
3991-5552

35

5231 n

2655 e

3991-5552

14.2

5612 n

2525 e

3991-5552

4.8
775.5
2
225
3325
3219
1288.3
6
622
525
15
295
533
52

5212 n
5255 n
5232 n
5239 n
5256 n
5952 n
5225 n
5222 n
5259 n
5222 n
5615 n
5253 n
5232 n
5252 n

2256 e
2255 e
6512 e
2222 e
2515 e
2253 e
2151 e
2522 e
2555 e
2255 e
2129 e
2532 e
2152 e
2256 e

3991-5552
3991-5552
3991-5552
3999-5552
3992-5552
3991-5552
3991-5552
3996-5552
3991-5552
3991-5552
3991-5552
3991-5552
3992-5552
3991-5552

Station

Row

Aboumusa
Baft
Bandar
abbass
Bandar
lengeh
Jask
Jiroft
Chabahar
Haji Abad
Darab
Sirjan
Fasa
Qeshm
Kangan
Kahnooj
Kish
Lar
Lamerd
Minab

3
5
1
5
2
6
2
2
9
35
33
35
31
35
32
36
32
32

Figure 1: the indication of synoptic meteorological characteristics of the study

RESEARCH FINDINGS
The results of selective indices in table 2 are summarized. According the table, the average index of changes
which is one of the important components in identifying the severe and dangerous rainfalls shows the rate

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of 165/5. And if this rate is near zero, it is considered as an important factor in planning. The number of
days with rainfall of more than 30 millimeter in Hormozgan province equal days in a year.
Probably in comparison with the whole country, this rate is a low rate. But regarding the potential
environmental and weak vegetation, the runoff coefficient is high. And this index can bring damages. The
portion of average of maximum rainfall in one day equals 119/5 and its comparison with the weighted
average of annual rainfall equal 17-/2 millimeter it should be indicated that the portion of maximum daily
rainfall in the study area encompasses 70 percents of annual rainfall. And this percent which is higher than
daily rainfall regarding the dry climate can impose damage to the human population and infrastructure.
Significant amounts of other components are also listed in the table. Significant amounts of other
components are also listed in the table.
Table 2-summary of statistics values for the selected index of daily rainfall in different stations of province

Precipitation
over the 95th
percentile.

Precipitation
over the 90th
percentile

Maximum
rainfall in a
day in mm

The
longest
period of
humid
days

The
longest
period of
dry days

Total
maimum
period of three
days ad more
precipitation
in
mm

The number of
days
with
precipitation
greater than 30 mm
per day

Coefficient of
variation
of
daily
precipitation

Index

36.4

15

321

153

525

393

Highest

55
29.2

32
23.8

66
119.5

5
2.2

536
278.5

69
151.1

0.6
1.2

355
165.5

Lowest
Average

Spatial changes of indices in figures 2 to 9 are illustrated and map guidelines from top to bottom are the
effects of this index which are from the weakest to the strongest.
Coefficient of variation (CV) is one of the most important indicator for explaining the critical and dangerous
rainfalls. And usually the poor rainfall is associated with severe variability which has been considered as
unsecure element for successful farmers. If the coefficient variation is high, the probability of
incompatibility with the environmental and creating damages will increase. Precipitation changes represent
standard deviation and mean and can be achieved through the raining pattern and its instability.
As Ramesht (1375) indicates number 40 for this index is determining pivot. In this way, if CV < 40, the
rainfall is regular and if this amount is higher than 40, it represents irregularity of rainfall. According table
2, the coefficient variation 141 to 191 is changeable that in comparison with the index (number 40) is really
high. Thus, all parts of Hormozgan are affected by dangerous and critical rainfall. The maximum coefficient
variation in south east and its minimum have been concentrated in Haji Abad, Minab and Parsian. What
has been conducted in this field by Alikhani(1386) show that daily rainfall coefficient variation in Iran is
obtained 144 percents. Therefore, in comparison with Hormozgan province with average the coefficient
variation is 165.5 percents has high rank in onset of dangerous rainfall.

Figure 2: the coefficient variation of average of daily rainfall in Hormozgan

Figure 3: spatial distribution with rainfall of 30 millimeter and more than annual rainfall in Hormozgan

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Many researchers think that the days with raining of 30 millimeter and more is considered as a n effective
index in causing environmental damages. Based on table 3 the spatial distribution of this index has been
scattered in all parts of this province and in the case of having days with rainfall more than 30 millimeter
the most severe in southeast of Hormozgan from Minab to heights of Beshagard (north of Jask) and its
maximum secondary are concentrated in Bandar Abbas and small range of Parsian. Based on calculation
that has been done in days with rainfalls more than 30 millimeters, 52.1 percents of the province are at the
stake.
Many researchers believe the continuing rainfall can be considered as an indicator of risk. If the duration
of raining be increased, the volume of runoff due to saturated soil has increasing trend. And if the continuing
rains become higher than threshold, it will result in critical rainfall. In Hormozgan province the vegetation
improves coefficient of runoff and flooding. And in the case of continuing raining, serious damage will be
imposed on natural environment and human sources. Based on obtained results and according to table
number 4, the risk of this index in all parts of this province are low and in the case of three day raining or
more only 11.7 percent of the province are dangerous. And this risk in Jask is more than other part of the
province.

Figure 4: the portion of rainfall in humid period of 3 days and more than the annual rainfall in Hormozgan.
Figure 5: spatial distribution of portion of the longest period of dry days in Hormozgan.

Prolonged dry periods can lead to climatic irregularities, and if the distance between two raining is high, its
severity will increase and by its turn can create damages. Based on table 2, the average of the longest dry
period of days in Hormozgan is 278/5 days meaning more than 9 months in a year lacks rainfall which show
high rates in our country. In according the figure 5 and based on this index, more than 95 percents of this
province area are affected by the critical hazard rainfall.
The longest days of humid period can be taken into account as an index for explaining the vulnerable
rainfall. If the number of raining days is high, soil gradually saturates the water and by reducing the
infiltration capacity, the runoff volume will increase which result in dangerous rainfall and flood. According
the figure 6, the portion of this index in happening of critical rainfall in Hormozgan is not considerable and
in the severe situation is equal 2 percent and in the lowest case equal 1 percent. Thus, there's a lot of
variations among the strongest and weakest states. According the figure, the effect of this index in hazardous
incidence of rainfall in semi eastern is more than west.

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Figure 6: spatial distribution has the longest portion in period of humid days in Hormozgan.
Figure 7: spatial distribution of maximum daily rainfall in comparison to annual rainfall in Hormozgan

The maximum daily rainfall can be considered as an index for identifying the regional hazard. The portion
of this index in comparison to annual rainfall in dry places is impressive and noteworthy. And in the case
of this index, 85 percents of the area of this province has critical and dangerous rainfall. And only in north
of Hormozgan, this index is low. Based on estimated calculations, the maximum rainfall that happened in
one day includes 74 percents of all annual rainfall. For example, in Jask station, the maximum daily rainfall
(173 millimeter) is more than the average annual rainfall (126/9).

Figure 8: the portion of rainfall higher than 90 th percentile in annual rainfall in Hormozgan.
Figure 9: spatial distribution of rainfalls higher than 95 th percentile in annual raining in Hormozgan.

Most researchers think the 90th percentile as an indicator of recognizing the daily rainfall hazard. The 90th
percentile means 90 percents of data is smaller than it and 10 percent of data are greater than it. The greater
the rainfall of this percentile is, the irregularity can be found more and the probability of this hazard will be
increased. According to the table 8, this index has not been strong effectiveness in inducing hazard
precipitation and has the portion of less than 30 percent and are extended like separated cells in Minab, and
the west of Qeshm Island. However the 95th percentile has been concentrated in Jask, Minab and farthest
west of this province.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION

In analyzing the critical rainfall of Hormozgan, 8 indices for recognizing the climate hazard have been
analyzed. And the map of each of these indices in arc gis has been traced and the regions affected by critical
and dangerous rainfall have been determined.

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Regarding the dominance of subtropical high pressure systems and continuous subsidence of air,
atmospheric processes in Hormozgan province are affected by the whole of desert climate in a way that
lacks rainfall more than 9 months in a year. Moreover, the extreme daily rainfall and its distribution is nonuniformity. For example, one day rainfall in Jask station in some years is more than the average of annual
long-time.( the annual average 126.9 and the maximum daily rainfall 173 millimeter). Lack of insufficient
rainfall for crop growth, has escalated the poverty of vegetation. In the case of critical raining due to runoff
coefficient, have serious damage to environment. The environmental indices in the region show that
Hormozgan province has the dangerous potential of precipitation. However, this point should be considered
that the effects of indices are different in the case of rainfall hazard in terms of regional. Because the
vulnerability for example, 50% of maximum daily rainfall in Hormozgan is worse than other regions due
to poor vegetation and low permeability of soil.
The comparison and analysis of produced maps indicate that spatial distribution of dangerous rainfall in
Hormozgan province is concentrated in special regions. The most critical region from the perspective of
daily rainfall is Jask. Among the 8 selective indices of critical rainfall, it has been ranked first. Mountain
in Beshagard in a distance parallel to Oman Sea has been ranked in the second rate of hazard rain. The north
of Hormozgan (Haji Abad) from the perspective of dangerous precipitation has the minimal risk. West of
Hormozgan, Bandar Abbas, Minab, Rudan, and the islands have the moderate situation from the perspective
of critical rainfall.
This selective indices show the spatial distribution of rainfall indices hazards is tremendous in Hormozgan.
In a way that the coefficient indices of variation, the longest period of dry days and maximum daily rainfall
than other indicators of effectiveness is highly critical of precipitation and in the event of a hazard index
greater than 85 percent of the area will be rain.

ACKONWLEDGEMENT
This study has been taken from the research project of << spatial analysis of critical rainfall in
Hormozgan>> that has been finished in Islamic Azad University of Bandar Abbas. So, special thanks have
been announced for financial support and essential facilities of carrying out this project.

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