Risk Management in Project Management

Evaluation by State Dependency

Definitions:

Objective: An explicit (documented or stated) time-delimited goal to be concretely

achieved in the future.
(Any ‘objective’ or ‘project goal’ assessment is based on the explicit and exhaustive
means to complete it. )
 An Objective is the sum of all its events (O = P(p1….pn)
 An Objective is a projection into the future of events that can / cannot be said to
exist.
 Objective G at time n <> to G at time n+1.
 An Objective is not a logical deduction
 A stated Objective does not contain in itself the means for its accomplishment
 Objective is not deductive.
 An Objective is a goal determined by its means.
 A goal is not a logical entailment of the means.
Any objective ALWAYS justifies the means. It is the way something is done that the
something becomes.
Event: A unit of time in the future in which a defined action takes place (occurrence)
State: The description of the status of event(s) at any given time, based on its function.
Function: The description of the purpose of an event.
Task: Any amount of (time X labor) defined by its function within a time constraint;
synonym = delimited unit of time in the future relative to an objective.
Value: Quantification rules for state evaluation (based on Criticality, Risk, Function,
Task)
Criticality: Subjective value attributed to an event, based on said events ‘role’ or
structural relationship to set Objective.

Each event is always in a specific state at any given time of a project. At project start,
all events are at the same state. This initial state is stateless, meaning that time has not
altered any task value.
Event state = TASK Evaluation. A Function that is fully documented, described by its
boundaries, is known to be of a very high degree of confirmation, can be said to exist (in
time), can be tested.
In order to assess an event state:
Consider: Task Evaluation = Feasibility (can it be done and how?)
The highest degree of confirmation of the above statement determines the validity and
purpose of a task, therefore of the event of which it is a subset.

For each state at time t there is a another state (tn) state which is a risk evaluation
factor
All states at any time

Example
Task 2 depends on 1
Task 3 depends on 2
Task4 depends on 1
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Task 4 depends on task 1, 4
Task 5 depends on 1, 2, 4

So at time x

If Task 1 -> start

All Tasks T+1 -> Start
Or if at time n, task 5 = Late -> dependencies -> T2
While T2 -> T1. So if T1 = late -> Pb(T5) late = 1/3
Late -> lookup task = List all task T finished prior to their due date: Where Complete =
Resource assigned

SETUP of dependency tracker

List A:
- Task
- Resource
- Time allocated
LIST B
- Task Status  Flag = status defined by level 0 – 5 (critical levels factors) ->
sends status code for evaluation to dependency tracker module
- Dependency list (check list) => Takes input from current Task status level ->
measures against all dependant task EX - Say this is task 6 dependants on task 1,
2, 4
LIST C
-
- Flags / Alerts
- Percent complete in % and Pb()
- Status

Task 1 = Status = Delay -> Time due = 2 weeks – (7 oct 2008 ) -> diff of task time 6 –
time 1 = SHOULB be x BUT is … XX ), comparison to schedule –> assign a temp status
Level to task 6 (delay of this magnitude is critical) HOW do I know that? Lookup next
dependency - …. Task 2 = Status = hold, delay -> Time due = ‘ ‘ -> diff of task time 6 –
time 1 = x ), comparison to schedule – assign temp NEW –(X by status of task 4) lookup
next dependency-> Task 4 = Status = in progress, -> status is 4 (75% complete)

Task dependencies -> List -> Module tracker ->

1) takes input of % complete and Status value Number
2) > check on status of associated dependencies
3) > compares with current time AND this task time
4) Evaluates status of current task
5) Looks at project map for time available = resource and proposes. IF not, returns a $$
$ code
6) Task may need cutting…
7) Look at task importance (priorities)
Defined by
Interconnectivity level – importance to architecture
$
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 Time
Function
Resources

ISSUE is COST vs NECESSITY or TIME vs Necessity

In the end all Probability of time completion within project time (will add to 1) Flag
==============================

PM
In optimal conditions:
Meaning for each state there is a counter state which is a risk evaluation factor
Such as
Start -> Stop
Fast - > Slow
Forward -> Backwards
Cancel
Delay
Hold
Derivative of x -> Deviation

Obtain the Minimum of the Maximum (minimax) of set of condition where ‘winning’ is
less the object as not loosing. The strategy being having as much data as possible as to
always be in a situation where the optimal is achieved within the available Max /
minimum amount of variables:
Space
Time
Conditions
Available stats

Example
Task 2 depends on 1
Task 3 depends on 2
Task4 depends on 1
Task 4 depends on task 1, 4
Task 5 depends on 1, 2, 4

So at time x

If Task 1 -> start

All Tasks T+1 -> Start
Or if at time n task 5 = Late -> dependencies -> T2
While T2 -> T1. So if T1 = late -> Pb(T5) late = 1/3

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