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The Telescope of the 2030s - The New York Times

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SPACE&COSMOS

TheTelescopeofthe2030s
JULY13,2015

DennisOverbye

OUTTHERE
Inwhattheytermedacalltoarms,anorganizationofAmerican
universityastronomerssaidlastweekthatNASAshouldbeginplanning
nowtolaunchasortofsupersizeversionoftheHubbleSpaceTelescopein
the2030stolookforlifebeyondEarth.
ThisHighDefinitionSpaceTelescopewouldbefivetimesasbigand
100timesassensitiveastheHubble,withamirrornearly40feetin
diameter,andwouldorbitthesunaboutamillionmilesfromEarth.
Suchatelescope,theastronomerssaid,wouldbebigenoughtofind
andstudythedozensofEarthlikeplanetsinournearbyneighborhood.It
couldresolveobjectsonly300lightyearsindiameterthenucleusofa
smallgalaxyoragascloudonthewaytocollapsingintoastarandplanets,
sayanywhereintheobservableuniverse.
ThecaseforthetelescopeislaidoutinFromCosmicBirthtoLiving
Earths,areportonthefutureofastronomycommissionedbythe
AssociationofUniversitiesforResearchinAstronomy(AURA),whichruns
theHubbleandmanyotherobservatoriesonbehalfofNASAandthe
NationalScienceFoundation.ItwaswrittenbyacommitteeheadedbySara
SeageroftheMassachusettsInstituteofTechnologyandJulianne
DalcantonoftheUniversityofWashington.

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Wehopetolearnwhetherornotwearealoneintheuniverse,said
MattMountain,thepresidentofAURAandtheformerdirectorofthe
Hubble,atanewsconferenceattheAmericanMuseumofNaturalHistory.
Onlyonceinthearcofourspecies,Dr.Mountainsaid,willweturna
cornerandbeabletodeterminehowtheuniverseandourplanetwere
formedandwhetherwearealone.Wecanbethatgeneration,hesaid.
Butonlyifwestartnow.
Inreleasingthereport,theAURAgroupisputtingdownamarkerin
thelong,elaborateandverypoliticalprocessbywhichmajorscientific
projectsarechosenandfunded.Every10years,acommitteeofthe
NationalAcademyofSciencessurveystheastronomicalcommunityand
producesaprioritizedwishlistforthenextdecade.Thissurvey,which
happensnextin2020,servesasablueprintforCongressandNASA.
AURAhasdonethisbefore.Backin1995,theorganizationputouta
report,ledbyAlanDressleroftheCarnegieObservatories,callingfora
spacetelescopetosucceedtheHubble.ThatbecametheJamesWebbSpace
Telescope,designedtolookforthefirststarsandgalaxiesintheuniverse,
anditisontargetforlaunchingin2018,23yearslater.
Inthemodernera,Dr.Mountainsaid,onlyspacescientistsarethis
patient.
ButthecostoftheWebbtelescopeswelledfromaninitialbudgetin
1996of$1.6billiontonearly$9billion,actinglikeawreckingballtothe
restofNASAsspacesciencebudget.Toavoidretracingthattrailoftears,
theAURAastronomerssaidNASAshouldstartinvestingnowinthecritical
technologiesneededtomakefuturetelescopeswork.
SotheHighDefinitiontelescopeisnotdestinedtobethenextitemon
NASAslist,orevennexttonext.AfterWebbinthepipelineistheungainly
namedWfirstAfta(dontask)designedtoinvestigatedarkenergy,the
mysterioussomethingthatisspeedingtheexpansionofthecosmos.That
missionwasthefirstpriorityofthe2010survey,anditcouldliftoffin2024

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ifallgoeswell.
TheHighDefinitionSpaceTelescopestandsattheendofanexciting
lineofexoplanetresearch.ThankstotheKeplerspacecraft,astronomers
thinktheynowknowthatroughly10percentofthestarsinourgalaxyhave
EarthsizeplanetsatthesocalledGoldilocksdistancesuitableforliquid
waterandlife.ButtheplanetsKeplerhasdiscoveredaretoofaraway
hundredsoflightyearstostudyclosely.
Thereisalreadyonerocket,theDeltaIVHeavy,thatcouldlaunchthis
telescope,andtheSpaceLaunchSystemthatNASAisdevelopingtosend
astronautstodeepspacewouldbeevenbetter.Packedintoarocket,the
telescopewouldunfoldinspacelikeabutterflyspreadingitswings,a
techniqueNASAhopesithasperfectedwiththeWebb.
Moreover,evenamillionmilesfromEarth,itcouldbeserviceableby
robotsorevenastronauts.Itwouldbecrazynottodoit,saidNeil
deGrasseTyson,thedirectorofthemuseumsHaydenPlanetarium,who
moderatedadiscussionofthetelescopereport.Henotedthatamillion
mileswouldbebyfarthefarthestahumanhadeverbeenfromEarth,
smashingtherecordsetwhentheApollo13astronautsswungaroundthe
moonandreachedadistanceof249,000milesin1970.
StandinginthebackoftheroomatthemuseumwasMichael
Massimino,aformerastronautwhotwiceworkedonHubbleinorbitandis
nowaColumbiaprofessorandadviserattheIntrepidSea,Air&Space
Museum.Hesaidhewouldbehappytogo.WhenIaskedhimafterward,he
sadlyagreedthatby2030,humanswillstillnothavebeenanyfartherinto
space.
Thebiggestpendingtechnicalproblemissuppressingtheglarefrom
starstofindtheirplanets.Thesun,forexample,is10billiontimesbrighter
thantheEarth.Thefuturespacetelescopewouldbeequippedwithan
internalcoronagraph,adiskthatblockslightfromthecentralstar,making
adimplanetmorevisible,andperhapseventuallyastarshadethatwould
floatmilesoutinfrontofittodothesamething.Investinginthislight

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suppressiontechnologynowmightpreventthecostoverrunsthatledtothe
Webbtelescopesnearlybeingcanceledafewyearsago.
Whichraisesthedelicateissueofhowmuchthiswouldallcost.
Lackingthekindofdetaileddesignfromwhichestimatescouldbe
reliablymade,Dr.Mountainandhiscolleaguessaidonlythatitwould
qualifyaswhatNASAcallsaflagshipmission,likeHubble.Thatputsitin
theballparkof$10billion,thesameasthecostofCERNsLargeHadron
Collider,wheretheHiggsbosonwasdiscoveredthreeyearsago.
Iusedtothink$10billionwasalotofmoneybeforeTARP,the
TroubledAssetReliefProgram,the$700billionbailoutthatsavedthe
banksin2008andapparentlyhasbroughthappydaysbacktoWallStreet.
Comparedwiththis,thesciencebudgetischumpchange,lunchmoneyata
placelikeGoldmanSachs.Butifyouthinkthisisnotabargain,youneed
lookonlyasfarasyourpocket.CompanieslikeGoogleandApplehave
leveragedmodestinvestmentsincomputerscienceinthe1960sinto
trillionsofdollarsofeconomicactivity.NotevenArthurC.Clarke,the
vauntedauthorandspaceageprophet,sawthatcoming.
WhichistosaythatallthatNASAmoneywhetherforplanetary
probesorspacestationtripsisspentonEarth,onthingsthatweliketo
saywewantmoreof:hightechnology,education,amoreskilledworkforce,
jobs,prideinAmericanandhumaninnovation,nottomentiongreater
cosmicawareness,adoseofperspectiveonoursituationhereamongthe
stars.
Evenifweneverdiscoverevenasinglemicrobeanywhereelse,the
moneyspentonthesearchforlifeouttherewillmakelifebetterforthoseof
usstuckhereonEarth.
Thereisnothingtobegainedbydelaying.AsDr.SeagerfromM.I.T.
said,thecentralquestionarewealone?isnotgoingaway.Itwill
alwayshaveapricetagonit.
Speakingtotheyoungpeopleintheaudience,Dr.Tysonsaid,Ifyoure

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12yearsoldnow,youllbeouragebythetimeithappens,andthenyouwill
becarryingthetorch.
AversionofthisarticleappearsinprintonJuly14,2015,onpageD3oftheNewYorkedition
withtheheadline:TheTelescopeofthe2030s.

2015TheNewYorkTimesCompany

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