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AreBangladesh'sCompetingPartiesReadytoNegotiate?|Stratfor

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Are Bangladesh's Competing Parties Ready to

Negotiate?
Analysis JULY30,2015|09:00GMT Print TextSize

BangladeshiprotestersshoutslogansduringademonstrationoutsidetheBangladeshNationalistPartyofficein
Dhaka,Feb.16.(MUNIRUZZAMAN/AFPPhoto)

Summary
InanattempttofightrisingIslamistextremisminBangladesh,DhakaannouncedJuly28thearrestsofseveral
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membersofoutlawedjihadistoutfitJamaatalMujahideen.ViolencehasplaguedtheSouthAsiancountry
sincecontestednationalelectionsinJanuary2014theoppositionBangladeshNationalistParty,knownasthe
BNP,leadsacoalitionofcenterrightandIslamistpartiesagainsttherulingAwamiLeague.Butinrecent
monthsarashofIslamistattacksagainstgovernmentinstitutions,securityforces,secularbloggersand
otherciviliansofttargetshasledthemainstreamoppositiontotrytodistanceitselffromviolentextremists.
AstheBNP'sproteststrategylosesmomentum,leaderBegumKhaledaZiahasindicatedthatpartsofthe
oppositionmightbewillingtodropsomeoftheirdemandssuchasimposinganeutralcaretaker
governmenttooverseeelections.TheAwamiLeagueandtheoppositionwilllikelyenterdifficultnegotiations
inthecomingweeksandmonths,butviolenceissettocontinue,especiallyastheAwamiLeaguegrapples
withtheburgeoningthreatofIslamistextremism.

Analysis
Largescalestrikesandprotests,knownlocallyashartals,haveslowedastherulingAwamiLeaguehas
steppedupitscounterterrorismmeasures,deflectingsomeWesterncriticismsleviedagainstDhakafollowing
2014'snationalelections.RegionalsupportfromIndia,atraditionalbackeroftheAwamiLeague,hasalso
extendedbeyondarecentborderagreementtoincludediscussionsonmanufacturinginvestmentand
counterterrorismcooperation.GarmentexportsacriticalcomponentoftheBangladeshieconomy
falteredearlierthisyearasBNPledstrikesshutdownlargesectionsofthecountry'stransportation
infrastructurenetworks.Yet,inthefaceofaresoluteAwamiLeague,theopposition'sprotestmovementhas
loststeam,especiallyinlightoftheupsurgeinIslamistviolence.Theresulthasbeenastrongreturnon
garmentsectorexports,aswellasrisingforeigninvestmentinterestinBangladeshincludingChinese
Japanesecompetitionoverportinfrastructure,manufacturing,powergenerationandroadandrailinitiatives.
SpeakingonJuly26,BNPleaderZiaannouncedthatthepartywasdroppingitsdemandsforacaretaker
governmenttooverseefreshelectionsthoughtheBNPstillwantsnewelectionsoverall.TheBNPisunable
toapplyenougheconomicorsocialpressurethroughitsproteststoweakentherulingparty,whichrelieson
thetacitbackingofthemilitary,securityforces,andparamilitarygroupstoimposeorderandbreakupstrikes.
Zia'sconcessionisexpectedtoresultinaquiet,behindthescenesrestartoftalks.Earlierattemptsstalledin
mid2014,whentheBNPintensifieditssocialunrestmovementagainstwhatitdescribedasanintransigent
AwamiLeague.TherulingpartywasalsofacingU.S.,BritishandEUcondemnationofitselectoralpractices.
TheBNPhadhopedthatinternationalpressure,includingrescindingsomeofthebeneficialtariff
arrangementsforBangladeshigarmentexports,wouldforceBangladeshiPrimeMinisterSheikhHasinato
capitulate.

Bangladeshi Unrest and the Textiles

Industry

Despitetheinternationalcommunity'sfocusontheAwami
League'seffortstomaintainsecurityaswellasitspro
businesspolicies,thegovernment'spositionshowsfew
signsofweakening.TheBNPanditscoalitionpartners
havecontinuedtheirboycottofelectionssincethe2014
parliamentaryelections,andtheyarenowlargelyexcluded
fromnationalandlocalpositions.AsBangladeshworksto
attractmoreinvestmentintothecountry,theBNPmust
waityearsbeforeitcanmeaningfullyreinsertitselfintothe
nationalpoliticalsystem.Aswellasbeingpoliticallyviable,
thereareassociatedeconomicbenefits,suchasoversight
ofgovernmentcontracts,aidpackagesandgraft

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BangladeshconsistentlyrankshigherthanallotherSouth
Asiancountriesinglobalcorruptionindices.
WhiletheBNP'sprimarytactichasbeentoopposetheAwamiLeaguethroughstrikesandprotests,
intensifyingIslamistviolencecouldforceZiaandotherBNPleaderstojointhegovernment'ssecurity
initiatives.TheAwamiLeague'scampaigntoarrestandsentenceJamaateIslami'sleadersintheleadupto
2014electionsresultedinthecountry'slargestIslamistpoliticalparty,andlongtimeallyoftheBNP,
leveragingitsnationalgrassrootsnetworks,addingmuchneededmuscletotheBNPprotests.Butongoing
violenceincludingseveralhighprofilekillings,attacksagainstsecularbloggersandfirebombattacks
againstbusesandtrainshasdamagedtheBNP'sstandingwiththeinternationalcommunity.
SinceJune,theBNPhasbeguntodistanceitselffromitstraditionalIslamistpartner.Protestscalledby
JamaateIslamiopposingthesentencingofitsleadershaveseenlittlepublicsupportfromBNPleadersand
theirassociatedcadres.TheBNPcouldwellbereadytouncoupleitselffromJamaateIslamiandsupportthe
AwamiLeague'seffortstocontainextremism.Ifthisisthecase,theBNPmayfinditslegitimateattemptstore
enterthepoliticalsystemmorefruitfulthanbycontinuingtopursueacampaignofsocialdisruptionthatrisks
givingcovertoextremistactivities.
TheAwamiLeaguehasbeenloathtoconcedeanyoftheBNP'sdemands,butenteringnegotiationswiththe
oppositionwillbewelcomedbytheUnitedStatesandtheEuropeanUniontheprimarydestinationsof
Bangladeshiexports.ButtheAwamiLeaguewillbeeagertobroadcastitspursuitofasolutiontothecountry's
politicalimpasse,andtheBNP'sconcessiononacaretakergovernmentisasignificantone.Reductionsin
publicunrestandviolencewillalsoassuagethedoubtsofwouldbeinvestors,highlightingakeyconcernof
Hasina'seconomicagenda.Negotiationswillcontinuetobedifficult,though,andBangladesh'shartalsand
politicalviolencewillcontinuetotaintanynegotiationprocess.

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