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Indias Neighborhood: Myanmar- March towards Democracy

Transition of Myanmar to Democracy
From 1962 to 2011, the country was ruled by the Military.
The first general election in last 20 years was held in 2010. This was hailed by the junta
as an important step in the transition from military rule to a civilian democracy.
It was boycotted by the main opposition group, Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for
Democracy (NLD) - which had won a landslide victory in the previous multi-party
election in 1990 but was not allowed to govern.
A nominally civilian government led by President Thein Sein - who served as a general
and then prime minister under the junta - was installed in March 2011.
2008 constitution: A quarter of seats in both parliamentary chambers are reserved for the
military, and three key ministerial posts - interior, defence and border affairs - must be
held by serving generals.
US secretary of state visited Myanmar first time in 50 years.
The newly re-elected President Obama followed suit in November 2012, and hosted
President Thein Sein in Washington in May 2013.
Myanmar is the world's largest exporter of teak and a principal source of jade, pearls,
rubies and sapphires. It has highly fertile soil and important offshore oil and gas deposits.
Little of this wealth reaches the mass of the population.
The EU followed the US lead, lifting all non-military sanctions in April 2012 and
offering Myanmar more than $100m in development aid later that year.
Myanmar has huge foreign investment from 32 countries in four major sectors: energy,
oil and gas, mining, and manufacturing.
Indias Economic Interest in Myanmar
India has offered 150 million Dollars credit to Myanmar for establishing a Special
Economic Zone at Sittwe in Myanmar's Buyer's Credit Scheme under National
Export Insurance Account (NEIA)
By 2016 : India, Myanmar and Thailand agreed for trilateral connectivity
project from Moreh in Manipur to Mae Sot in Thailand .
The state-owned firm ONGC Videsh Limited (OVL) won two onshore blocks of
the 18 that were bid out by the Myanmar Govt exploration.
India's investment in Myanmar is now around $273.5 million. It is expected to
soar to $2.6 billion over the next few years.
15% export is happening to India whereas import on only 3% from India.
Opportunities: IT sector, Healthcare , Infra, Telecom
India extended US$ 500 million Line of Credit
Air Services Agreement between India and Myanmar
Joint India-Myanmar Border Area Development
Establishment of the Advance Centre for Agriculture Research and Education
(ACARE)
Rice Bio Park at the Department of Agricultural Research in Nay Pyi Taw

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Cooperation between Myanmar Institute of Strategic and International Studies

and Indian Council of World Affairs.
Establishing of Border Haats across the border between Myanmar and India.
Ethnic Tensions

Since the 1950s, a number of ethnic armed groups have existed in Myanmar.
The largest ethnic group is the Burman people, distantly related to the Tibetans and
Chinese.
Burman dominance over Karen, Shan, Rakhine, Mon, Rohingya, Chin, Kachin and other
minorities has been the source of considerable ethnic tension.
Ceasefire deals signed in late 2011 and early 2012 with rebels of the Karen and Shan
ethnic groups.
Chinese-brokered talks with Kachin rebels in February 2013 also helped to strengthen
peace.
Violence between Buddhists and the Muslim Rohingya erupted in 2013, the official
response to which raised questions at home and abroad about the political establishment's
commitment to equality before the law.
The Rohingyas, numbering nearly a million and thereby constituting a significant portion
of the approximately 55 million population of Myanmar
They were stripped of Burmese citizenship in 1982.
The Geneva Convention on Refugees of 1951 and its Protocol of 1967 are being grossly
violated in respect of the Rohingyas.
The geographical proximity of the Rohingya-inhabited Rakhine state of Myanmar with
Bangladesh has led a large number of Rohingyas to flee to Chittagong, Bandarban and
Cox`s Bazar districts of Bangladesh whenever there is political turbulence in Rakhine
state
There are 16 major ethnic groups, 14 of them em have agreed for ceasefire but not the
Kachins and the Palaung.
Kachins are much the most important as they are more numerous and, as many of them
are Christian (mainly Baptists), they attract much more attention and support from the
West, particularly America.
Since the deterioration of a 17-year ceasefire between the Kachin Independence Army
(KIA), the armed wing of the Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO), and the
government in 2011, thousands have been killed in renewed fighting and more than
100,000 Kachins displaced.
The continuing Kachin violence, together with the slaughter of the Muslim Rohingya
people in Rakhine state in 2012-13, have been major blots in the reforming governments
image.
The talks are fruitful, the government complied with the ethnic armed groups' demand for
building a federal system of government, guaranteeing the democratic rights,
national equality and self-determination.

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The rebels also agreed to the government's principles of non-disintegration of the

union, non-disintegration of national solidarity and perpetuation of sovereignty.
Drug Trafficking
The United Nations Drug Control Programme (UNDCP) and International Narcotics
Control Board (INCB) also warned about the poor state of border security facilities
stating that the region could become a major transit point for illicit drugs .
Golden Triangle and Golden Crescent (Afghanistan-Pakistan-Iran) -has made India's
border vulnerable to drug trafficking.
Myanmar in the Golden Triangle remains the main producer of illicit opium, accounting
for nearly 95 per cent of the total opium produced in the region.
Poor management of the India-Myanmar border creates more problems.
Myanmar hosted the ASEAN drug meeting in Yangon in November 2013 High ranking
officials from the Drug Enforcement Administration of the U.S, Australian Federal Police
and the UN Office on Drugs and Crime also participated. Leaders agreed for stronger
action.
Joint Border Working Group (Moreh Incident)
Four Northeast Indian states share the border with Burma: Arunachal
Pradesh, Nagaland, Mizoramand Manipur .
The border at Moreh in Manipur, Burmese troops crossed the line and entered the
Holenphai village to erect camps, claiming that the region belonged to Myanmar and that
work would not be stopped until the field commander received orders otherwise from
higher authorities.
This is a considerably new development, and authorities from the Indo-Myanmar Border
Fencing Committee (IMBFC) set up by the Indian Government said on a visit that certain
sections of the border are not clearly defined and that neither India nor Myanmar
individually held the answers for this, stressing on the need for comprehensive talks to
settle the issue.
India has suggested Myanmar set up a Joint Border Working Group, JBWG to address
the issue of demarcation of border between the two countries.
This follows attempt by Myanmarese Army to construct a defence post near an
undemarcated border pillar.
Terrorism in India: New Dimension

Interrogation of David Headley, an accused of 26/11 Mumbai attack, yielded that

Pakistani terrorist organization Lashkar-i-Taiyyaba had prepared a video of Mahabodhi
Temple in 2010.
RAW is aware that Rohingya radicals are receiving funds from Saudi Arabia, training
from Pakistan and weapons from Thailand.

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links between Rohingya radicals with terrorist groups like the LeT and Jaish-eMohammed (JeM) of Pakistan, and Harkat-ul-Jihad al-Islami and Jamaat-e-Mujahideen
of Bangladesh.
Arakan Rohingya Nationalist Organization (ARNO) and Rohingya Solidarity
Organisation (RSO) were among the groups who were trained in Afghanistan camps
and were and are active.

Role of Myanmar in fighting Insurgency

The insurgent outfits of Northeast India have lost sanctuaries in Bhutan, Nepal and
Bangladesh.
12th BIMSTEC ministerial meeting, have adopted the BIMSTEC Convention for
Cooperation in Combating International Terrorism, Transnational Organised Crime
and Illicit Drug Trafficking.
ULFA chief Paresh Barua taking shelter in the Kachin state of Myanmar is supposedly
carrying out activities against India.
India and Myanmar have agreed to share intelligence to deal with insurgent groups
Indian government-initiated cross-border projects like the Tamu-Kalewa highway,
Tamanthi River hydroelectricity and offshore blocks in Bay of Bengal and the A1 and A7
gas blocks in Arakan region
There is not much incentive for Myanmar to take any action against them.
Myanmar lost 20-25 soldiers in an operation against an NSCN (K) faction.
India is willing to provide them with better logistical support and a stake in the
maintenance of better relations, Myanmar would not be very keen on helping India with
its insurgency problem.
.
Constitution and Role of Military
A key issue is whether the role of the military, as defined by the Constitution of
Myanmar, will be changed.
A constitution in any democracy must clearly define the position of the military and
provide for appropriate national defence, while providing mechanisms to prevent the
misuse of power.
There should be civilian control over the military, and the military should be subordinate
to the executive arm of government in particular.
To achieve this, the military cannot also be part of the legislature, nor have the power to
appoint ministers.
A range of constitutional approaches can limit military power.

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Some constitutions adopt a minimal approach and briefly refer to the military as
subordinate to the executive, leaving other details for further regulation by the legislature.
Others take a more expansive approach and set out in detail the role of the military and
the limits of its powers.
In Myanmar the military is under the control of the Defence Services Commander-inChief, who is appointed by the President.
But the Presidents appointment is subject to the approval of the National Defence and
Security Council, a majority of whose members are from the military.
In practice, this means the military has significant influence in appointing its own
commander.
The Constitution does not specify the term of the Commander-in-Chief, the
qualifications the position requires, or the circumstances in which he could be removed
from his position.
In contrast, the office of the President has a clear term, the candidate must meet set
requirements, and there is a clear process for removal from office.
There are further differences in relation to the composition of Parliament and the election
of members. The Commander-in-Chief has the power to nominate the Defence Service
personnel in both houses of Parliament, which makes up 25 per cent of the seats. He
also has the power to recommend the appointment of the Minister of Home Affairs,
Border Affairs and Defence.
The 2008 Constitution creates a complex relationship between the President, the
Commander-in-Chief and the military-dominated National Defence and Security
Council.
President appears to be subject to greater regulation, at least in comparison to the
Commander-in-Chief.
In addition to being subordinate to the executive, the military must not be immune from
the law and should also be required to comply with human rights obligations.
There are several different approaches to military justice in democratic countries. In some
systems, a crime committed by a military officer may be heard by the general courts, and
in other contexts such cases are heard by a system of special military courts.
The Constitution of Myanmar also provides for a system of courts martial, with an
ultimate appeal to the Commander-in-Chief.
There is no right to appeal to the Supreme Court in Myanmar, which means that the
decision of the Commander-in-Chief is not subject to review.
This is why it is important that the current constitutional amendment process clarify the
role of the military. Formal changes to ensure that the military is subject to the control of
the executive, and that there are clear limits to its power, would be an important step for
Myanmar to flourish.
Role of India in Myanmars transition to a successful democracy

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Buddhist installations in India will be target thus India must ensure that the transition is
done without any damage.
The recent easing of Western economic and financial sanctions as reward for political
reforms in Myanmar opens the way for India to play a more proactive role. At the same
time, New Delhi will give priority to securing its own economic and commercial
interests, including oil and gas exploration, vis-a-vis rising competition against new and
old powers in the region.
India's economic involvement in Myanmar, largely through the public sector, has in the
past been marred by complaints about implementation delays and quality control. Thus
private sector should be encouraged from Indian side.
China represents another challenge. China was close to the previous authoritarian regime
in exchange for commercial concessions, thus there would be a shift under civil rule.
Thus India can protect Myanmars interest by giving more options for trade and
investment.
India must ensure human right protection through economic engagement which was not
observed by china as the government's suspension of the US$3.6 billion Myitsone dam
project commissioned to Chinese investors shows insensitivity at Chinas part for local
community.
Furthermore the lack of connectivity and poor rail-road links in border areas of Myanmar
and India's contiguous northeastern region poses a formidable challenge for making
Myanmar a land bridge between South and Southeast Asia.
India's "Look East" aims to fill this infrastructural gap, including by building roads to
connect the two countries.
Initiatives dealing with unresolved ethnic conflicts have raised hopes for peace, India
must push for governments needs to move beyond temporary ceasefires and resolve
underlying political issues.
India must teach Myanmar valuable lessons in multiculturalism from India, especially in
the fields of adopting federal democratic practices and managing ethnic conflicts.

Strategic Importance of Myanmar

First, it wants to trade directly with Southeast Asian countries such as Thailand and
Malaysia. Second, it would be in Indias interest to keep China at bay in Myanmar. But in
order to do so, the Northeast needs to be pacified.
Myanmar is the second- largest of Indias neighbours and the largest on our Eastern
flank.
Myanmar provides the Eastern littoral of the Bay of Bengal. An unfriendly Myanmar
hosting foreign naval presence would be a grave threat to Indias security.

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Myanmar has a big border with China in the North, contiguous with the Sino- Indian
disputed border. Military analysts can gauge the various strategic complications that
arise from such a configuration in case Myanmar is under unfriendly influence.
Myanmar bridges South Asia and India with South-East Asia. It also acts as a buffer
between Indias North Eastern States and the Southern provinces of China.
There is a need that India must engage with Myanmar Politically, Militarily and
economically.
In Indias quest for strategic partnerships, Myanmar acquires top priority being a vital
geo-strategic entity on her Eastern flank and sharing a long border with China.
Myanmars providing the major Eastern littoral to the Bay of Bengal imparts added
strategic significance to Indias naval strategies. Myanmar has not permitted China to
turn it into a strategic de-stablising entity for India, like Pakistan. India should therefore
make a determined effort to forge a strategic partnership with Myanmar.
Quickread: Myanmar

Unlike Bangladesh, Myanmar, despite its critical importance for India security,
Indias Look East Policy and the stability imperative for the Northeast does not
receive as much attention as it should.
Part of the reason is that Myanmar has undergone long periods of insurgency and
has suffered international isolation.
During its years of isolation, Chinas influence in the country has grown while
Indias engagement has reduced.
The next 20 years will see greater interaction between India and Myanmar.
The political changes in Myanmar are slow but promising.
In a marked departure from the past trends, the US Secretary of State, Hillary
Clinton visited Myanmar in November 2011 and in April 2012, Aung San Suu Kyi
participated in the fledgling democratic process in Myanmar and won the byelections to become a member of the national legislature.
Myanmar is rich in natural resources and has a superb geo-strategic location.
China has invested considerably and rapidly in Myanmar and there is a
perception that it may seek to push India out of Myanmar.
The challenge before India in the next 20 years will be to ensure that it invests in
Myanmar, contributes to its growth and draws it into the various regional
cooperation projects.
The development and connectivity of infrastructure projects between Northeast
India and Myanmar is of critical importance. The game changing event that might
occur in the not too distant future is the completion of the oil pipeline from the
Bay of Bengal through Myanmar to China.
Myanmar will be more integrated with the world and its isolation will end. This
will open up fresh avenues for Indo-Myanmar relations.

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