Opening Bell

May 12, 2015

Results: Dr Reddys, Apollo Tyres, TV Today,

Ashok Leyland, Jubilant Life Sciences, Sobha
Ltd, Camlin Fine, Motherson, CARE. IIP, CPI
Index Movement (past one month)

Key Developments

BSE (RHS)

The Power Ministry has received bids from gas-based power plants
like Lanco Infratech, GMR Energy, Torrent Power, GVK Power and
Ratnagiri Thermal Power with combined stranded capacity of 8,000
MW, seeking subsidy under the Power System Development Fund
for imported natural gas, for their power plants that have stopped
production due to unavailability of the fuel
For Q4FY15, Mahindra CIEs revenues came in at | 414 crore against
expectations of | 477 crore, vs. | 378 crore QoQ. The company has
merged all its entities. Hence, the numbers are not comparable on a
YoY basis. PAT came in at | 32 crore vs. expectations of | 16 crore
mainly due to a tax rebate
Dr Reddy's Q4FY15 revenues may grow ~15% YoY mainly due to
30% growth in the US business on the back of gValcyte exclusivity
and consolidation of the Habitrol business. We expect EBITDA
margins to expand 355 bps to 26% due to a better product mix
BoB reported its PAT at | 598 crore. Though below estimate, asset
quality surprised positively with GNPA declining QoQ to 3.72% vs.
3.85% adding just | 1359 crore as slippages. NIM declined to 2.17%
vs. 2.2% QoQ. Overall it is positive

Sensex
Nifty

11-May

7-May

5-May

30-Apr

28-Apr

24-Apr

22-Apr

30000
29000
28000
27000
26000
25000
20-Apr

9000
8800
8600
8400
8200
8000
16-Apr

Markets Yesterday
Domestic markets ended positive soon after the government
decided to ease its combative stance on MAT demand accompanied
by a decline in global crude oil prices, hopes of a rate cut by the
Reserve Bank of India while the likelihood of a normal monsoon
further boosted investor sentiments
US markets ended lower after a sharp jump in treasury yields and as
profit booking emerged on the heels of rally seen in past few days

Todays Highlights

13-Apr

Market Outlook
Indian markets may open flat to negative on the back of negative US,
Asian markets. The market would be keenly watching results of major
auto, pharma companies. Parliament activity on GST, Land Acquisition
& other important Bills will be key for any directional move in markets.

NSE (LHS)

Close Previous Chg (%) MTD(%) YTD(%) P/E (1yr fwd)

27,507 27,105
1.5
1.8
0.0
17.1
8,325
8,192
1.6
1.8
0.5
17.0

Institutional Activity
FII (| cr)
DII (| cr)

CY13
112,221
-73,385

CY14 YTD CY15 Yesterday Last 5 Days

99,525
40,638
170
-4,640
-30,570
10,797
329
5,214

World Indices Monthly performance

Shanghai
4,350
7.4%
Nikkei
19,499
-1.4%

Dow Jones
18,105
1.6%
France
5,028
-4.1%

Kospi
2,094
0.5%
BSE
27,507
-4.8%

Nasdaq
4,994
0.0%
NSE
8,325
-5.2%

U.K.
7,030
-0.8%
Germany
11,673
-5.7%

Nifty Heat Map

Bank of
Baroda
ACC
Sun
Pharma
Yes Bank
Infosys

169.7
17.0%
1,499.0
3.5%
964.4
2.6%
844.4
2.2%
1,993.7
1.8%

Asian
Paints

771.7

United
Spirits

3,369.9

GAIL
RIL
Wipro

1.6%
1.2%
373.1
1.1%
896.0
0.7%
541.5
0.2%

Vedanta
Ltd
HDFC Ltd
Hindalco

230.3
5.7%
1,226.1
3.4%
142.5
2.6%

Power
Grid

143.0

Grasim
Ind

3,556.8

Tech M.
Maruti
L&T
IDEA
Lupin

2.1%
1.8%
631.3
1.6%
3,651.7
1.1%
1,615.3
0.9%
171.1
0.6%
1,769.9
0.0%

SBI
Tata
Motors
PNB
NTPC
Cairn
India
Tata
power
TCS
HDFC
Bank
IDFC
Bharti
Airtel

276.1
5.4%
529.7
3.1%
149.1
2.3%
145.0
2.1%
210.0
1.8%
74.3
1.5%

Ultratech
Tata Steel

0.8%
160.8
0.4%
396.2
-0.4%

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

4.7%
377.1
2.8%

Ambuja
Cement

238.5

ICICI
Bank

323.5

HCL Tech
BHEL

2,556.0 Indusind
Bank
1.1%
990.3

2,823.8

NMDC
BPCL
ITC

2.3%
2.1%
941.9
1.8%
234.7
1.4%
819.7
1.1%
132.0
0.7%
750.8
0.4%
326.5
-0.5%

Hero
Moto

2,384.3

Bajaj
Auto

2,182.4

Coal India
Axis
Bank
Cipla
M&M
ONGC
Kotak
Bank
Dr Reddy
HUL

3.6%
2.8%
372.0
2.3%

Markets Today

551.1

Close Previous

1.9%
666.1
1.7%
1,194.3
1.2%
319.0
1.1%
1,339.1
0.7%
3,359.7
0.3%
864.7
-3.4%

Commodities
Gold (|/10 gm)
Silver (|/kg)
Crude ($/barrel)
Copper ($/tonne)
Currency
USD/INR
EUR/USD
USD/YEN
ADRs
HDFC Bank
ICICI Bank
Tata Motors
Infosys
Dr Reddys Labs

Change (%) MTD(%)

YTD(%)

27,028
37,434
64.7
NA

27,125
37,326
64.9
NA

-0.4
0.3
-0.3
NA

0.5
-0.1
-3.1
0.1

0.0
2.5
12.9
0.0

63.86
1.12
120.16

63.94
1.12
120.08

-0.1
0.0
0.1

-0.7
-0.6
-0.6

-1.3
-7.8
-0.3

56.6
10.8
42.0
31.3
53.0

57.0
10.7
42.6
31.2
53.0

-0.7
0.6
-1.4
0.3
0.0

-4.8
NA
-6.6
-12.7
-12.4

12.4
NA
2.0
-0.8
5.1

Sectoral Index
Sector

2,719
16,383

5-May

2,960
16,758

4-May

3,182
17,676

25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0

6-May

7-May

8-May

11-May

BSE Cash

NSE Cash

NSE Derivative Turnover (| crore)

4-May

5-May

6-May

205,341

0.00

212,584

200000.00

248,478

400000.00
294,267

Prior Values
--10.1bln $
23.95bln $
351.87bln $
7.50%
4.50%
35.74bln $
5.00%
5.20%
-38.6bln $
11.79bln $
6.30%
-12.60%
-2.33%
-0.19%
4.00%
7.50%
6.50%

3,565
20,654

Latest Values
-8.2bln $
4.70%
-39.2bln $
4.00%
7.50%
6.50%

157,343

Release Date
29-May
02~13Mar
11~15May
15-May
29-May
30-May
11~15May
12-May
12-May
02~13Mar
11~15May
14-May
14-May
14-May
14-May
07-Apr
07-Apr
07-Apr

169,387

Period
Apr
Q4
Apr
w/e
Q4
12M
Apr
Mar
Mar
Q4
Apr
Apr
Apr
Apr
Apr
N/A
N/A
N/A

3,148
17,219

Exchange Cash Turnover (| crore)

Key Domestic Economic Indicator

Fed Fiscal Deficit
Current Account
Exports - USD
FX Reserves, USD Final
GDP Quarterly yy
GDP Annual
Imports - USD
Industrial Output yy
Manufacturing Output
Trade Deficit - RBI
Trade Deficit Govt - USD
WPI Food yy
WPI Fuel yy
WPI Inflation yy
WPI Manufacturing Inflation yy
RBI Cash Reserve Ratio
RBI Repo Rate
RBI Reverse Repo Rate

3,080
16,362

Key Data Points

7-May

8-May

11-May

NSE Derivative

Sectoral Performance Monthly Returns (%)

Close

Previous

Change

% Change

Volume

Auto

18832.2

18369.6

462.5

2.5

1178000

Metals

Banks

20878.2

20389.6

488.6

2.4

15950000

BSE Small Cap

11792.7

11901.4

-108.7

-0.9

66926000

Oil & Gas

-3.3

Capital Goods

16383.4

16192.8

190.6

1.2

8047000

Banks

-3.4

Consumer Durables

10186.2

9960.1

226.1

2.3

434000

PSU
Auto

FMCG

8304.6

8368.1

-63.5

-0.8

1023000

Healthcare

17870.6

18140.1

-269.5

-1.5

1830000

IT

11397.0

11502.0

-105.0

-0.9

1254000

Metals

10203.0

9952.6

250.4

2.5

4444000

Power

Mid Cap

10993.0

11070.8

-77.7

-0.7

64406000

Capital Goods

Oil & Gas

9355.9

9240.0

115.9

1.3

1076000

Power

2063.6

2031.8

31.8

1.6

12211000

Real Estate

PSU

7620.5

7444.1

176.4

2.4

22575000

Real Estate

1603.5

1589.3

14.2

0.9

8163000

1.2

-4.4
-4.9

Consumer Durables

-6.3
-6.8
-7.6
-10.3

-12.0

-10.0

-8.0

-6.0
-4.0
(%)

-2.0

0.0

2.0

Key News for Today

Company/Industry
News
Gulf Oil Lubricants Gulf Oil International (Mauritius) Inc, a promoter
group entity of Gulf Oil Lubricants India, has
increased its stake in the company to 64.94%
from 62.5% by acquiring shares in the open
market through block deals

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

View
The increase in stake shows the
confidence of the promoters in the
company. It would have a positive
impact on the stock price

Impact

Sensex Chart

Technical Outlook

We said, "Positive bias...larger positive options

possible if the last fall gets retraced faster..."
The index gapped up above Friday and
holding the Yellow support line, gained
further, to finish 402 points or 1.4% higher.
Except FMCG, most other sectors ended with
gains. PSU banks outperformed while the A/D
ratio ended positive 3:1.
The action formed another Bull candle, with a
small gap-up area below its bottom. The bias
will remain positive on higher high-low after
bouncing from the lower Grey channel. "Faster
retracement" and strength above 27604 today,
followed by dips holding higher lows, would
be positive for eventually testing upper end of
the Grey falling channel. Otherwise not.

Pivot Points

CNX Nifty Technical Picture

SENSEX
NIFTY
ACC
ADANI ENTER.
ADANI PORT
ADITYA BIRLA
ALLAHABAD BANK
AMBUJA CEMENT
AMTEK AUTO
ANDHRA BANK
APOLLO HOSP.ENT.
APOLLO TYRES
ARVIND
ASHOK LEYLAND
ASIAN PAINTS
AUROBINDO PHARMA
AXIS BANK
BAJAJ AUTO

27507.30
8325.25
1498.95
707.15
344.05
1868.15
102.70
238.50
153.40
77.80
1250.60
170.95
256.65
74.30
771.65
1362.80
551.10
2182.40

27467.45
8309.75
1491.90
704.55
343.05
1853.85
102.25
237.30
153.45
77.45
1245.70
170.15
256.00
73.55
769.10
1353.05
549.90
2175.65

27389.20
8282.70
1476.25
699.20
341.05
1839.10
101.15
235.10
152.25
76.60
1220.25
168.30
254.15
72.25
763.05
1334.80
547.70
2160.10

27623.95
8363.80
1523.25
715.25
347.00
1883.35
104.40
241.75
155.90
79.10
1296.65
173.85
259.70
76.20
781.25
1389.50
554.35
2206.75

27804.70
8414.00
1532.90
726.20
352.00
1898.10
105.65
243.90
159.25
79.90
1302.85
175.20
263.10
77.25
786.70
1410.85
560.10
2233.35

+ve
+ve
+ve
+ve
+ve
Neutral
+ve
+ve
+ve
+ve
+ve
+ve
+ve
+ve
+ve
+ve
+ve
+ve

Nifty
Trend
Trend Reversal
Support
Resistance
20 Days EMA
200 days EMA

Intraday

Short Term

Up
8190
8220-8190
8270-8310
0
0

Range bound
0
8000
8350
8347
8182

Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE

Advances
1758
1045

Declines
971
436

Daily Technical Calls

1. Buy ACC above 1508.00
2. Buy Tata Chemical above 445-446
3. Sell Dabur India below 258.50
*All recommendations are of May Future

See Momentum Pick for more details

Nifty Call Put Strike (No. of shares in lakh) May 2014
7900
8000
8100
8200
8300
8400
8500
8600
8700

26

Intraday Derivative Strategy

52
52

7
8
46

20
36

32
31

13
12

48
7

39
5

60.0

Buy ASIPAI May Fut at 780.00-784.00

View: Bullish
Strategy: Buy Future
Target 1: 794
Target 2: 807
Stop Loss: 766
Market Lot: 250
CMP : 778

40.0

20.0

27
0.0
Put

20.0
Call

40.0

60.0

Sell DLFLIM May Fut at 132.50-133.00

View: Bearish
Strategy: Sell Future
Target 1: 131.25 Target 2: 128.20
Stop Loss: 134.75
Market Lot: 2000
CMP : 131.50

See Daily Derivatives for more details

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Unchanged
102
73

Results/Events Calendar

13

IIP INDIA
CPI INDIA
Export & Import China
PPI Japan YOY
0

20

04

April

Tuesday

KPIT Tech, Tata Elxsi

Bharti Airtel, Idea
Century Plyboard, Gati
Godrej Cons, Marico Kaya
Essel Propack

05

May

Monday

May

Tuesday

Kotak bank, South Indian Bk

Dabur, Firstsource Solutions
Trade Balance US
PPI YoY EC
0

12

May
Monday

Taj GVK
Mahindra CIE
Bank of Baroda
Havells, India Exports (yoy)
India Imports (yoy)

April
Tuesday

28

April

15

May
Tuesday

Dr Reddy, Apollo Tyres

Ashok Leyland, TV Today
Jubilant Life Science
Sobha Ltd, Camlin Life
Motherson Sumi, CARE

22

06

Event
Ind Production YoY
Manu Production YoY
Ind Production YoY
CPI YoY
Ind Production YoY
BoP Current A/c Bal
Industrial Prod MoM
GDP SA YoY
Exports YoY
Imports YoY
Initial Jobless Claims
Continuing Claims
Wholesale Prices YoY
PPI YoY
Ind Production MoM
Manu (SIC) Production

Count
UK
UK
IN
IN
CH
JN
EC
EC
IN
IN
US
US
IN
JN
US
US

April

Thursday

Mahindra Life
IDFC, Shoppers Stop
Marico
Exide, Oberoi Realty
Initial Jobless Claims (US)

07

May

Wednesday

May

Thursday

Titan Co, Hero MotoCorp

Jindal Saw, GE Shipping
Star Ferro Cement
Talwalkar, BASF
Sintex Industries

14

May
Wednesday

Major Economic Events this week

Date
12-May
12-May
12-May
12-May
13-May
13-May
13-May
13-May
14-May
14-May
14-May
14-May
14-May
15-May
15-May
15-May

30

April

Emami Ltd
Lupin
Ashoka Buildcon
0
0

April
Thursday

HDFC Bank, Cyient, SQS

SKF India,Cairn India
Gujrat Gas
Markit China Manu PMI
0

Wednesday

KEC Inter, Greaves Cotton

HSBC India Serv PMI
HSBC India Composite PMI
HSBC China Comp PMI
0

13

23

April

Biocon, HDFC, Kajaria Cera

Shree Cement,Amb Cem
Sesa Sterlite, Federal Bank
Gateway Distriparks
Hexaware, Accelya Kale

April
Thursday

TCS, MindTree
IndusInd Bank
Initial Jobless Claims US
Continuing Claimsd US
0

Wednesday

KSB Pumps, Yes Bank,

Rallis India, Mastek
Trade balance Japan
Exports & Imports YOY Japan
0

29

16

April
Wednesday

WPI India
Industrial Production China
GDP YOY China
Manu (SIC) Production US
0

HCL Tech, Wipro, Just Dial

VST, Symphony,
Persistant Systerms
Govn Debt/ GDP Ratio EC
0

Monday

Vguard, Mangalam Cement

HSBC India Manu PMI
HSBC China Manu PMI
HSBC Euro Manu PMI
0

11

21

April

EPC Industrie,
Bharti Infratel
Maruti
US Composite PMI
0

April
Tuesday

DCB Bank
FDI China
CPI YOY UK
Industrial Production EU
0

Monday

Persistent Systems
Hindustan Zinc
Construction Output YOY EC
0
0

27

14

April
Monday

May
Thursday

Kewal Kiran Cloth, DB Corp

Grindwell Norton
Castrol, HEG, NCC
Balkrishna Industries
JK Tyre, Indian Bank

17

Reliance Industries
ECB Current a/c SA EU
Jobless Claims UK
CPI YOY US
0

24

08

02

May

May

Friday

May
Friday

Torrent Pharma
Cadila Healthcare, HT Media
JSW Steel, Cox & Kings
Nestle, Dena Bank
JK Lakshi Cement

April
Saturday

Ultratech Cement
Petronet LNG
0
0
0

Friday

Hindustan Unilever, PNB

Kansai Nerolac,Vardhman
P&G Hygiene, Gillete India
Ajanta Pharma, Apcotex
GSK Consumer, Eicher

15

25

April

Markit Manu PMI China

Markit Manu PMI US
0
0
0

April
Saturday

LIC Housing Finance

0
0
0
0

Friday

Infosys
Pitti Laminations
PPI Service Japan YOY
0
0

01

18

April
Friday

May

Saturday

0
0
0
0
0

09

May

Saturday

Syndicate Bank
Unichem
SiyaramSilk Mills
Atul Auto
0

16

May
Saturday

J&K Bank
0
0
0
0

Result Preview
Period
Mar
Mar
Mar
Apr
Apr
Mar
Mar
1Q A
Apr
Apr
9-May
2-May
Apr
Apr
Apr
Apr

Expected Previous
0.2%
0.1%
1.0%
1.1%
2.8%
5.0%
4.9%
5.2%
6.0%
5.6%
2075.0B 1440.1B
-0.3%
1.1%
1.0%
0.9%
--21.1%
--13.4%
-265K
-2228K
-2.3%
-2.3%
-2.1%
0.7%
0.0%
-0.6%
0.2%
0.1%

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Company
Dr Reddy
Apollo Tyres
Ashok Leyland
TV Today
Sobha Ltd
Motherson Sumi
CARE

Revenue
Q4FY15E
3,993.0
3,098.0
4,872.6
113.5
739.0
9,010.2
85.0

Chg(%)
EBITDA
YoY
QoQ Q4FY15E
14.7
3.9 1,038.2
-4.1
-0.2
439.1
58.4
45.0
460.3
16.6 -13.8
28.3
18.2
8.3
184.8
7.2
2.1
782.6
12.3
30.5
58.0

Chg(%)
PAT
YoY
QoQ Q4FY15E
32.9
5.9
755.9
-4.8 -10.5
287.6
150.2 93.3
261.2
11.3 -35.2
15.3
8.7 21.4
69.9
-9.7 -13.6
257.5
13.1 48.6
40.6

Revenue = NII; EBITDA = PPP for Banks and NBFC

Recent Releases
Date

Report

11 May 2015

Company Update- Cyient Ltd

11 May 2015

Result Update- Titan Company

11 May 2015

Result Update- Punjab National Bank

11 May 2015

Result Update- Hindustan Unilever

11 May 2015

Result Update- Ajanta Pharmaceuticals

Chg(%)
YoY
QoQ
56.6 31.6
2.1 55.9
-28.1 713.8
-3.4 -41.9
-0.4 16.5
-14.9 -28.0
-1.6
9.3

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currencies and commodities. Also,
elaborating the likely impact on the Indian
bourses.
Trading outlook for a month based on
medium-term technical trends considering
key technical indicators & statistical
information.

Medium & Long term recommendations

Tecno Funda
On basis of Technical and Fundamental
whenever opportunity occurs we give these
Pick/Technical
calls
Deliver Call
Positional Derivatives
Stocks on the move

Identifying Out-performers/Under-performers
vis a vis index along with positional
recommendation on Stocks/Nifty.
Covers stocks, which are likely to show
significant upward movement in the next 15
days due to change in trader sentiment.

Detailed Company
Report

Fundamental report understanding the

business model and future prospects of the
company & valuations.

Equity Model
Portfolio
High Dividend
Yield Stocks

A portfolio based on your risk appetite: large

cap, midcap and diversified
Features high dividend yielding stocks for
assured returns on investment

Trading Page iCLICK-2-GAIN

Trading Page iCLICK-2-GAIN
Trading Page iCLICK-2-GAIN
iClick-2-Gain

Weekly

1-7 days

5%

Research page-We
Recommend, Trading Page,
iCLICK-2-GAIN
& iClick-2-Invest

Weekly

1-7 days

4 5%

Research page-We
Recommend, Trading Page

Weekly

1-7 days

4 5%

Research page-We
Recommend, Trading Page

Monthly

30 days

Trading Page

Monthly

30 days

Trading Page

Monthly

30 days

10%

Research page-We
Recommend, Trading Page,
iClick-2-Invest

Not regularly
recommended

3 months

20%

Trading Page, iCLICK-2-GAIN

& iClick-2-Invest
Trading Page, iCLICK-2-GAIN

Fortnightly
Fortnightly every
alternate Wednesday

> 7-15
days

5 7%

When published

> 1 year

> 20% &

above

Quarterly

Research page-We
Recommend, Trading Page,
Scroller, iCLICK-2-GAIN
Research page-We
Recommend, Trading Page,
iCLICK-2-GAIN
& iClick-2-Invest
Research page-We
Recommend, iClick-2-Gain
Research page-We
Recommend, iClick-2-Gain

Pankaj Pandey

Head Research
ICICIdirect.com Research Desk,
ICICI Securities Limited,
1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,
Road No 7, MIDC
Andheri (East)
Mumbai 400 093
research@icicidirect.com

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

Disclaimer
ANALYST CERTIFICATION
We /I, Pankaj Pandey Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the
subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.

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and other business relationship with a significant percentage of companies covered by our Investment Research Department. ICICI Securities generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts
and their relatives from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover.
The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and
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It is confirmed that Pankaj Pandey Research Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months.
Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions.
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publication of the research report.
Since associates of ICICI Securities are engaged in various financial service businesses, they might have financial interests or beneficial ownership in various companies including the subject
company/companies mentioned in this report.

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research