A Big Joke Burma (Myanmar) Changing to Democracy

Kanbawza Win
The Burmese putsch, which sees the security forces surrounding the headquarters of the
ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) in the capital, Naypyidaw, late on
Wednesday,preventing members there from leaving, speaks a thousand words.Thura (the prefix
Thura means Brave Hero was awarded after his forces destroyed Manerplaw, a jungle stronghold of Karen rebels
near the Thai border) Shwe Manns ouster from the party, was over the role of the military in the

future of Burma, 1and clearly demonstrated that the hypothesis of the country slowly changing to
democracy is completely a farce and a big joke. The Burmese military has demonstrated
itsBurmese Way to Socialism is now demonstrating the Burmese way to Democracy.Surely the
episode was taken from the page ofHitlers Beer Hall Putsch of 1923 where later the world
witness the rise of Nazi Germany. The foreign intellectual prostitutes that wrote in favours of the
Junta as well as creating a favourable climate for investment for their respective governments led
by the cooperated funded ICG are nowdumfounded and President Obamas claim of foreign
policy success has gone down the drain. A Burmese proverb of A snake sees the legs of another
snake, seems to be correct when we dissidents often cried out that it was a farce and the
changing to democracy is just a window dressing to suit, international investment and relent the
economic sanctions for its gross human rights violations, has proved to be true. How can a
leopard change a skin? This saga proved beyond doubt that in their heart of hearts of the
Burmese Tatmadaw still adheres to the dictum of Chairman Mao Zedongthat power comes out
of the barrel of the gun. It also demonstrated that only in real democracy the leadership
changes peacefully and not on any other syst ems.

No Need for Hypocrisy

It proves once and for all, that any one, especially foreign multilateral corporations that is
keen in doing business in the last frontier of Asian, must deal with the military, the powerful
Tatmadaw whose reign is uninterrupted since 1962. Then and only then, that company is eligible
to make a profit over the sweat and blood of the peoples of Burma. As the country opens up
several foreign companies together with a handful of cronies have already benefited immensely
from the countrys perpetual unrest.In order to establish good relations with former generals,
essential for investment, the Western governments focus on providing them with encouragement
and support and couch nice words like, Our objective is to support and accompany Burma in
the transition process. We believe that this can be done more effectively through engagement and
support than continued sanctions, Superficial reforms have been rewarded at the risk of
reinforcing the old, authoritarian power structures knowingly that the regime has quietly returned
to its old habit of arresting political dissidents, killing and silencing journalists, not to
mentionthe inhumane treatment inflicted on theRohingya, Kachin, the Shan and other ethnic
nationalities.
No former Generals now in mufti, have ever admitted their mistakes, nor asked for
forgiveness, let alone being punished. This no doubt means that they will repeat the same
atrocities, as they have being doing for more than half a century when things dont go their way
as this was amply demonstrated last Wednesday. Burmas reforms are often measured against the
practices of dictatorial times and, compared with the relentless oppression of the past, so the
1

Yadana Zaw; Hnin & Tun;Aung Hla, Shwe Mann Sacked as Party Chief in Power StruggleReuteurs News 3-8-2015

reformist generals come off well. In this current structure the whole country is ruled by the
military chief, not the president. Significant power is also vested in the bureaucracy, which
consists mainly of former military officials in civilian clothes and civilians appointed under
preferential treatment. These officials have acted with impunity during decades of military rule,
and often lack the willingness, as well as the knowledge, to act in accordance with new laws and
regulations. The obvious conclusion is that as long as the foundations of military rule remain in
place, the large Western funds flowing into Burma carry the heavy risk of supporting
authoritarianism, instead of democracy. It also helps to create more poverty through corruption:
while the fundamental principle of Business Ethics, Corporate Responsibility, and Sustainable
Development are not incorporated in the new concept of the 3 Ps, planet +people +profit. With
the current Putsch hypocrisy is no longer needed as business always overrules the conscience.As
soon as the army disregarded its brand of socialism in 1988, AIDS was the first to come in, 2now,
the quasi-military government is beckoning sex tourism. 3

The Power Maniacs

Tatmadaw,the power maniacs has its long history of military coups. The First Military
Coup under the pretext of Caretaker Government was launched on Oct.29 th 1958 when General
Ne Win forced the civilian government of U Nu to hand over power to him. 4It was a dress
rehearsal not only for the Revolutionary Councilwhich he established in the SecondMilitary
Coup on 2nd March 1962 but also for theThird MilitaryCoup by SLORC (State Law and Order
Restoration Council) of 1988. So last Wednesday the Fourth Military Coupover the ruling
party explicitly demonstrated that who hold the gun holds power.
Essentially, their power is rooted in the deep racism that has permeated Myanmar
society.Its propaganda encourages a blind racist nationalism, full of references to protecting the
race, meaning the Myanmar as some of the monks like U Wirathu better known as Burmas binladen is doing now, with the active encouragement of the quasi-military regime. This implies
that if the Myanmar do not oppress other ethnic nationalities the Non- Myanmar then they
find themselves to be oppressed. All the ethnic nationalities races including their language,
culture and values must be assimilated into the Myanmar race hence, if the Tatmadaw falls
everything fall is their theory.
Tatmadaw now permeates Burma, controlling virtually every institution and most
business enterprises. Even if some semblance of democracy is adopted, the Tatmadaw would still
be the countrys driving force. The bottom line is that the Tatmadaw dont want to give up
power, or this topic they have been completely intransigent.Tatmadaw generals are just power
maniacs. They will not let it go voluntarily until and unless some superior force wrests it from
them. Once they see that power is slipping out of their hands they will do anything everything to
wrest it back like lastWednesday. Historically they moved against their own civilian government
of Dr. Maung Maung when Ne Win and ButcherSein Lwin were forced to resign in 1988,
andwhen its pet party, the National Unity Party (NUP) won only 10 seats compared to the pro
democratic government led by NLD 392 seats, in the 1990 open elections it broke its own
promise of handing over power to the winner and changed the rules of the game. Thus Sai Wan
Sai of the SHAN wrote, The core problem is that the military is determined to hold on to
power, at all cost, through its sham democratic-trappings. To pave way for its continued hold on
2

During the Burmese Socialist Days there was not a single AID/HIV patient
Poverty drives Myanmar girls into underage sex workthe Irrawaddy 13-8-2015
4
Guardian Sein Wins A Split Storya small booklet
3

power, it has approved its self-drawn constitution, without the people's consent. The election
ensured the military's hold on power. Accordingly, 25 % was allotted to the Tatmadaw without
election and the rest 75% contested by Tatmadaw sponsored parties of NUP and USDP. So the
outcome is predictable. This clearly shows that as long as there as a Tatmadaw there is
practically no hope for the real prevalence of democracy in Burma, not to mention for the
federalism of the Genuine Union of Burma. The Tatamadaw will continue to give one excuse or
another and it will cling to power in perpetuity.

The Watch Dog is Still Active

The infamous political purges of Burmas junta-era were recalled last week
asnews filtered through of a well-planned plot to remove the influential parliamentary speaker
Shwe Mann from the top ruling party post. Current and former generals with close links to the
supremo Snr-Gen Than Shwe are involved in the purge, which saw Shwe Mann, widely viewed
as the third most powerful general in Burmas former military regime, and removed from his
post as USDP chairman. 5 This quiet bloodless, military coup ended the presidential ambitions of
Shwe Mann and turned up the pre-elections heat, which was efficiently executed by Thein Sein
in collaboration with the military, to reconsolidate power ahead of this years crucial election just
before the deadline for the submission of electoral candidates on Friday. New candidates of over
50 young military officers joined the ranks of those who will sacrifice their lives for the army but
not for the country, whittled down from a list of 143 who applied for the November 8 election.
Shwe Mann was nothing if not ambitious, repeatedly expressing his desire to become
president and forging an informal alliance with Aung San Suu Kyi, the leader of Burmas main
opposition partywidely tipped to perform strongly in the upcoming national poll. This unholy
alliance across the political divide had sent cold chills through the spines of the Burmese military
and executive leadership who clearly saw their part being sidelined in the countrys post-election
landscape. 6 They unanimously approach their God Father old man Than Shwe who now
meticulously planned to remove the impending danger.

The Watch dog of Burma

The watch dog Than Shwe who had stayed on the side linehad earlier met veteran
generals from the former regime at his residence on the countrys annual Armed Forces Day in
March just to prove that he remained healthy and still interested in politics. According to The
Irrawaddy he was quite unhappy with the plan he had formulated for a civilian handover in
2010 and has now implement his plan B, which involved the removal of the Shwe Mann faction
and a reconsolidation of power behind the ruling party and the military, as one. The theory of
Mao Zedong now come into great use to be patient until their rivals are weakened before making
a move. Such was the case with Shwe Mann, who was removed shortly after the death of an ally,
5

Zaw:Aung, Shadows of the Past in Shwe Manns Sudden Fall from Grace The Irrawaddy 13-8-2015

Ibid

Aung Thaung, a hardliner, in Singapore last month.As the country reels from its most severe
flooding in recent memory, politicians, including Thein Sein, have visited flood-affected areas
no doubt acutely aware of public perceptions ahead of this years poll.
The Burmese have already sees signs of intra-party friction. A petition circulated and
signed by over 1,700 people in Shwe Manns home constituency calling for his impeachment for
not respecting the militarys role in parliament signaled certain top brass had already moved
against him. In June, the NLDs attempt to amend the percentage vote requirement for charter
change from over 75 percent to 70 percent was rejected by the militarys voting bloc. So, too,
was a proposed amendment to scrap the legal ban on anyone whose spouse or children are
foreign nationals from becoming president. While both measures were voted down, Shwe
Manns agreement to allow for a three-day debate put parliaments military representatives in the
hot seat. It is predictable that after Shwe Manns demise, they will likely target his two sons
business interests in telecommunications, trading, and construction as having benefited from
their fathers political clout, as alleged in a U.S. diplomatic cable published by WikiLeaks. 7

The Chosen One

The deployment of troops to enforce the power play signaled that
military commander General Min Aung Hlaing supported the
move. 8The thinking of Min Aung Hlaing and Senior General Than
Shwe, the previous juntas long-time leader is similar as in Min
Aung Hlaing has vowed to follow policies set by former junta leader
Than Shwe, and has signalled a willingness to steer the military away from its repressive role in
national affairs. So naturally the former supremo and ex-director of psychological warfare, and
architect of previous intra-military purges, have played a role from behind-the-scenes.
People in Burma are accustomed to keeping a close eye on their generals. It seems like a
reasonable habit when you consider that the military ruled over half a century relinquishing its
absolute control over politics only recently. Even today, despite three years of liberalising
reforms, high-ranking officers retain considerable sway. 9So one can hardly blame people for
sitting up and taking notice in the Resistance Day of Feb27th, when a local weekly published
details of a speech made by Min Aung Hlaing, declaring that the military is "afraid of no one".
Just in case someone didn't get the message, he also noted that "the Tatmadaw will always follow
policies set by retired Senior General Than Shwe.There are at least two important conclusions
we can draw from Min Aung Hlaing's speeches. First, his remarks signal an important shift in the
development of military doctrine, one that entails a major change in the style of the leadership of
the armed forces. Second, his statements strongly suggest that the commander-in-chief is
considering the possibility of entering politics, perhaps by running for president in the next
national election scheduled for 2015.10
Over the past 25 years, since the military seized power in 1988, the Tatmadaw has
professed to follow an ideology based on Three National Principles - namely, the preservation
of the union, the maintenance of national solidarity and the defence of sovereignty.This was the
third phase of doctrinal development in the recent history of the armed forces. In this historical
7
8

Crispin;Shawn W, What Does Myanmar's Purge Mean for Its Election? 14-8-2015
Ibid

Thazin Aung; Su Mon,Myanmar's man to watch Foreign Policy 17-1-2014

10

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/opinion/Myanmars-man-to-watch-30224439.html

context, Min Aung Hlaing's explicit embrace of "human security" represents a dramatic
departure from the norm. If his statements are to be taken seriously, they indicate an attempt by
the military to win the people's hearts and minds by redefining the armed forces as the defenders
of democracy and social welfare. Than Shwe has chosen this man and the commander-in-chief is
over other senior generals is now positioning himself for the 2015 elections? According to
several sources inside the military, Min Aung Hlaing, who will reach retirement age that same
year, is quietly preparing a run for the presidency. Some Burmeses military lawmakers have
stated that the armed forces will nominate Min Aung Hlaing as a presidential candidate in
2015.11 If this is the case, Min Aung Hlaing's "human security" rhetoric might well resonate with
the public's aspiration, and he could present himself as a statesman with a clear political vision,
perhaps enabling him to profit from intense personal rivalries among the other contenders like
the incumbent president Thein Sein, the parliamentary speaker Thura Shwe Mann, and
opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi. But his qualities has been tested when he vowed that he
will revealed the rape cases of the two Kachin girls.12Tangbau Hkawn Nan Zing (21) and Maran
Lu Ra,(20), the two Christian missionaries were raped and beaten to death by the Myanmar
Tatmadaw soldiers of the Light Infantry Brigade on the night of Jan.19th Jan. 2015 in the
Churchcompound, of
Kwang Hka village, Nam Tao
township, Muse
district, in Northern Shan State. Since
then it has gone Hush.
How can he governed and implement
his human security
when he cannot control his rapist
army?Brig-Gen Wai
Lin, an officer with the Southern
Command and a Lower
House MP who leads the military
lawmakers, told the
media that he expects Sen-Gen Ming
Aung Hlaing to be a
leading candidate for the
presidency. 13The 60-year-old Ming Aung Hlaing took over as commander of Burmas Armed
Forces junta leader Than Shwe retired in June 2010. As part of Burmas democratic transition,
planned by Than Shwe, many senior junta members retired to become civilian lawmakers with
the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) in Parliament and now he picked Min
Aung Hlaing to be his heir.14

The US and EU were Tricked

In the Western world, Australia and Japan were not considered at moral or ethnics but at
least the people of Burma gives much weight to US and EU having reined on the sanctions on
the military Juntas of the world including Burma. The high hope of the West soon collapsed
when the reform process quickly stalled as the hope for a transitional partnership of Daw Aung
San Suu Kyi with the President Thein Sein analogous to that between South Africas Nelson
Mandela and F W de Klerk, became disillusioned. 15 Hopes of amending the Constitution, which
ensures the militarys grip on the country, were dashed; crackdowns on journalists and upcoming young students the future of the country was rife, the state-sanctioned rise of militantly
nationalistic Buddhist monks indicated that hardliners were still pulling the strings.The
11

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/opinion/Myanmars-man-to-watch-30224439.html
Photo from Kachinland news
13
Zaung Htet: Tha Lun Military MP Says Army Chief Could Become Candidate for President The Irrawaddy 111-2013
14
http://www.irrawaddy.org/burma/military-mp-says-army-chief-become-candidate-president.html
15
Crispin;Shawn W, What Does Myanmar's Purge Mean for Its Election? 14-8-2015
12

emergence of Shwe Mann as Daw Suu Kyis ally was the only bright spots in this darkening
picture. His credentials made him an improbable friend: where NLD MPs-elect and others had
retreated after the 1990 election debacle. The group included the Provisional Coalition
Government of Burma, headed by Dr. Sein Win andmost of the students leaders in Diaspora has
returned to work for the country16. It was at this critical moment that shows it true colour.Min Ko
Naing, a leader of the 88 Generation democracy movement, expressed concern over the reports
of the USDPs use of security forces to resolve a dispute within its ranks. Changes like these
are normally carried out at party congresses. Only those in charge know why the security forces
had to come in during the night to carry out the changes, but this is not a good development for
the countrys future.
The State Department and the Senate majority leader both voiced concern Friday over
how general-turned-politician Shwe Mann was removed as party leader on Wednesday night in a
murky power play reminiscent of the decades the country also known as Burma spent under
direct military rule. U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon called on all parties "to recommit to
free, fair and credible elections in November," Republican Sen. Mitch McConnell, the most
prominent congressional voice on Burma, has expressed mounting unease over the country's
direction. He said the manner of Shwe Mann's ouster "should give pause to supporters of
democratic reform in Burma." McConnell, of Kentucky, said "The reported role of
state securityforces in the effort to unseat a party official is deeply disturbing, especially given
Burmese history," 17
Shwe Mann's careerhas epitomized the nation's historic shift from military rule to
fledgling democracy. The former junta member was a close associate of then-dictator Than Shwe
and visited North Korea in 2008 to promote defense ties. He has visited Washington twice, most
recently in May. He met top administration officials.Katina Adams, a State Department
spokeswoman for East Asia, said: "It is important that authorities act in a way that reinforces not decreases - the Burmese public's confidence in their government's commitment to democratic
processes."This week, Republican and Democratic leaders of the House Foreign Affairs
Committee called for U.S. sanctions on those responsible for increasing human rights abuses
against Rohingya Muslims and others in Myanmar, saying thousands have been displaced or
disenfranchised."The failure to do so undermines U.S. policy of promoting democratic reforms
and human rights," Reps. Ed Royce, R-Calif., and Eliot Engel, D-N.Y., wrote in a letter Tuesday
to Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew.
Shwe Mann and Thein Seins personal rivalry created the intra-governmental tension
needed to convince the U.S. and Europe that check-and-balance democracy was taking root after
nearly five decades of unaccountable military rule. (Shwe Mann famously criticized Thein Seins
government for a lack of transparency in May.) Perceptions of reform, combined with an
easing of media censorship and mass release of political prisoners, were pivotal to the decisions
in Washington and European capitals to suspend or lift economic and financial sanctions that for
decades had crippled Burmas economy. 18
The military seems to have considered the worst scenario. 19 In the elections, there is
going to be a three-way competition among the alliance of the USDP and the military, the Suu
16

http://news.yahoo.com/general-myanmar-military-staying-politics-074750346.html
Burmese military flexes its musclesMyanmar military staying in politics 14-8-2915 AP News Washington
18
Crispin;Shawn W, What Does Myanmar's Purge Mean for Its Election? 14-8-2015
19
Xu Liping, Myanmese militarys soft coup indicates trend in upcoming elections Global Times 16-8-2915
17

Kyi-led opposition National League for Democracy (NLD), and the alliance of ethnic minority
forces. If the NLD wins the election, it will be the worst result for the military. It would have
been humiliating for any ruling party, and for a party of arrogant generals it was morale-crushing
as well. Evidently, this new democracy thing was not working out as the Tatmadaw had
hoped.20

Non-Myanmar Ethnic Nationalities, Beware

This Putsch gives a loud and clear message, to the Non-Myanmar ethnic nationalities
either to stay on perpetually as a second class citizens or to fight to the end as their predecessors
has done like half a century ago. Knowing full well that most of the ethnic nationalities like
Karen and Shan are feeling the fatigue of war and is desirous of seeking peace the Tatmadaw has
exploited the situation in collaboration with the Euro-Burma office and betrayers like Karen
Mutu Say Po and Shan Yawd Sauk.Success at the peace talks could be a game-changer for Min
Aung Hlaing, who have his eye on the presidency. With presidential elections just around the
corner, substantive progress in talks with the ethnic armies can bolster the commander-in-chiefs
chances in two key ways: First, it will help him develop a political platform and a clear image,
both crucial to making the shift into electoral politics. Second, it will help him win votes in
parliament. As member of the Nationwide Ceasefire Coordinating Team (NCCT) commented,
the army chiefs priority, as he has told senior military officials, is to obtain not just an end to the
fighting. 21
For more than six decades since the last British forces pulled out, Burma has been
ravaged by civil war between the central government and the ethnic armed groups. In 1947,
independence hero General Aung San reached a deal, called the Panglong Agreement, that
guaranteed ethnic minority groups broad rights and full administrative autonomy for frontier
regions is now gone. Since then all the Non- Myarmar have rose against the Myanmar led central
government up to this day.Its important to note that the military has often used ceasefire
agreements as part of a broader strategy for containing the rebellions on the countrys periphery.
The military concluded temporary ceasefires with certain groups while using the respites thus
granted to intensify pressure on others. There were 14 ceasefire agreements between the military
junta and the ethnic armed groups from 1989 to 2004 (including one with the KIA that only
broke down in June 2011). This containment strategy did reduce clashes to some extent, but was
unable to produce any lasting solutions because there was no genuine political dialogue between
the ethnic groups and the junta. The recent draft ceasefire agreement suggests that the sides are
making progress, and could indeed sign a long-term peace agreement If Min Aung Hlaing can
bring the negotiations to a successful end by the end of 2014, it would be an enormous boost to
his prestige. A deal would mark a major breakthrough for the country, which has suffered from
an intractable civil war for more than six decades. Its a high return wager for his potential
presidential bid.22
It would also offer some very practical advantages. Burmas parliament, as it presently
exists, is divided up according to a quota system that gives a certain number of seats to various
interest groups. Support from the ethnic groups represented in parliament could help give his
candidacy a crucial boost. As it stands, the military bloc within Burmas parliament would be
20

Nagara; Bunn, More woes for Myanmar The Star 16-8-2015

21

Thazin Aung;Su Mon, Why Burmas Top General Is Playing Peacemaker 15-4-2015

22

http://foreignpolicy.com/2014/05/15/why-burmas-top-general-is-playing-peacemaker/

enough to make him one of the countrys three vice presidents but the military holds just 25
percent of seats, not enough to make him president. A peace deal, and the ensuing support from
Burmas ethnic minorities, would give him an edge on his competitors both inside parliament
and in the countrys ethnic regions.With a ceasefire in hand, there would be enough room for
Min Aung Hlaing to maneuver for the presidency to outstrip his potential rivalries: Aung San
Suu Kyi, who is still barred from running under an obscure article in the 2008 constitution, and
the leaders of the ruling party, who have little or no public support. Meanwhile, escalating social
unrest caused by the heated sectarian violence between Buddhists and Muslims, continuing
conflicts over land ownership, and a general lack of rule of law continue to destabilize domestic
politics. Ultimately, the military chiefs success will depend on how shrewdly he manages the
peace agreement and whether he can present himself as a strong, effective leader in the countrys
fragile transition.A genuinely peaceful and federal Burma remains an ambitious and elusive goal.
If Min Aung Hlaing can show decisive progress toward that end, and did not insist on total
surrender on the ethnics nationalities and reduced the army to a real professional federal army
just to defend the country from outside invaders instead of the Tatmadaw that concentrates on
the ethnic cleansing of the Non-Myanmar ethnic nationalities for the past half a century plus.