Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Star Power
The Growing Role of Solar Energy
in America
Written by:
Judee Burr and Lindsey Hallock
Frontier Group
Rob Sargent
Environment America Research & Policy Center
November 2014
Acknowledgments
Environment America Research & Policy Center sincerely thanks Nathan Phelps at Vote Solar; Pierre
Bull and Nathanael Greene at the Natural Resources Defense Council; John Farrell at the Institute for
Local Self-Reliance; Anya Schoolman at Community Power Network; and John Rogers at the Union
of Concerned Scientists for their review of drafts of this document, as well as their insights and
suggestions. Thanks also to Tony Dutzik, Tom Van Heeke and Jeff Inglis of Frontier Group for editorial
support.
Environment America Research & Policy Center thanks the Tilia Fund, the Arntz Family Foundation,
the Scherman Foundation, the John Merck Fund, the Barr Foundation and the Energy Foundation for
making this report possible.
The authors bear responsibility for any factual errors. The recommendations are those of Environment
America Research & Policy Center. The views expressed in this report are those of the authors and do
not necessarily reflect the views of our funders or those who provided review.
2014 Environment America Research & Policy Center
Table of Contents
Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Solar Energy Is on the Rise in America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
America Can Obtain a Large Share of Its Electricity from the Sun . . . . . . . . . 13
Solar Energy Has the Potential to Power America More Than 100 Times Over . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Millions of American Rooftops Could Host Solar Panels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
A Solar Future Is Within Reach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Executive Summary
* In this report, solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity, or solar PV, refers to installed solar photovoltaic systems, both distributed and
utility-scale. Solar electricity capacity refers to all solar technologies that generate electricity, including concentrating solar power
systems that use the suns heat rather than its light to generate electricity. The figures in this report do not include other solar energy
technologies, such as solar water heating.
4 Star Power
Figure ES-1. Solar Electricity Technical Potential Compared with Electricity Consumption
Figure ES-2. The United States Can Generate 10 Percent of Its Electricity from Solar Power by 2030
Executive Summary 5
6 Star Power
Executive Summary 7
Introduction
8 Star Power
Introduction9
Figure 1. Annual and Cumulative Installed Solar PV Capacity through 2013, United States6
12,000
10,000
U.S. Cumulative Capacity
U.S. Annual Capacity Additions
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
10 Star Power
Figure 2. The Median Installed Price of Residential and Commercial Solar PV Systems Continues to Fall17
$12
10 kW
$10
10-100 kW
> 100 kW
$8
$6
$4
$2
$0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
12 Star Power
America Can Obtain a Large Share of Its Electricity from the Sun 13
14 Star Power
Figure 4. Over 35 Million Rooftops Can Host Solar Panels Across the United States25
America Can Obtain a Large Share of Its Electricity from the Sun 15
Figure 5. The United States Can Generate 10 Percent of Its Electricity from the Sun by 203029
16 Star Power
Table 1. Solar Energy Growth in Top 25 States for Cumulative Installed Solar PV Capacity31
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
State
California
Arizona
New Jersey
North Carolina
Massachusetts
Nevada
Colorado
Hawaii
New Mexico
New York
Texas
Pennsylvania
Maryland
Florida
Georgia
Ohio
Connecticut
Tennessee
Delaware
Oregon
Indiana
Missouri
Louisiana
Illinois
Vermont
Total Solar
Percent Annual
Total Solar PV
PV Capacity
Growth in Solar PV
Capacity Installed in
Installed in 2013 Capacity by State,
2010 (MW-DC)
(MW-DC)
2010-2013
1,021.7
5,183.4
72%
109.8
1,563.1
142%
259.9
1,184.6
66%
40
469
127%
38.2
445
127%
104.7
424
59%
121.1
360.4
44%
44.7
358.2
100%
43.3
256.6
81%
55.5
240.5
63%
34.5
215.9
84%
54.8
180.2
49%
10.9
175.4
152%
73.5
137.3
23%
1.8
109.9
294%
20.7
98.4
68%
24.6
77.1
46%
4.7
64.8
140%
5.6
62.8
124%
23.9
62.8
38%
0.5
49.4
362%
0.7
48.9
312%
0.2
46.6
515%
15.5
43.4
41%
2.9
41.5
143%
America Can Obtain a Large Share of Its Electricity from the Sun 17
18 Star Power
Figure 6. Large-Scale Solar Power Integration Can Significantly Cut U.S. Power-Sector
Global Warming Emissions43
20 Star Power
Saving Water
22 Star Power
Policy Recommendations 23
Set renewable energy standards with a solar carveout States should adopt renewable energy
standards with mandatory solar carve-outs that
require a significant and growing share of that
states electricity to come from the sun. State
governments should lead the way towards
meeting these goals by installing solar power on
all available government buildings.
24 Star Power
Adopt and preserve strong statewide interconnection and net metering policies These critical
policies ensure that individuals and businesses are
appropriately compensated for the electricity that
they export to the grid, and allow them to move
seamlessly between producing their own electricity and using electricity from the grid. In states
without strong net metering programs, carefully
implemented CLEAN contracts (also known as
feed-in tariffs) and value-of-solar payments can
play an important role in ensuring that consumers
receive a fair price for solar energy, so long as the
payments fully account for the benefits of solar
energy and are sufficient to spur participation in
the market. Policies such as virtual net metering or
shared solar allow the solar market to expand to
low income households, renters, and apartment
dwellers and allow community financing and
ownership of solar.
Policy Recommendations 25
Appendix A. Methodology
26 Star Power
Appendix A 27
data from: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Sales, Revenue,
and Energy Efficiency Form EIA-861, 29 October 2013.
NERC regions could not be identified for utilities responsible for a total of 1.5 percent of electricity sales
nationally. The majority of those sales were in Texas.
State emission factors were created by multiplying
each states percentage of sales per NERC region by
each regions emissions factor.
For Alaska and Hawaii, which are not included in
the NERC regions, we calculated an emissions factor using 2011 data on total electricity generation
and total carbon dioxide emissions from electricity
generation in each state. Generation data came
from: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, Net Generation by State by Type
of Producer by Energy Source (EIA-906, EIA-920, and
EIA-923), December 2013. Emissions data came from:
U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information
Administration, U. S. Electric Power Industry Estimated
Emissions by State, Back to 1990 (EIA-767 and EIA-906),
February 2013.
The use of a constant emissions factor for each state
masks hourly variations in the carbon intensity of
electricity on the grid, meaning that the estimates
in this report do not fully reflect the ways in which
additional solar energy might affect hourly dispatch
of different electricity generators in each region of
the country.
28 Star Power
Appendix A 29
State
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
District of Columbia
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
Electricity
Production from
All Potential
Solar Electricity
Capacity (GWh)
3,758,165
8,283,142
24,556,070
5,023,834
17,699,253
19,452,241
33,961
289,375
2,499
5,274,479
5,566,467
57,127
7,466,971
8,224,624
4,992,152
7,029,897
22,515,073
1,862,803
4,184,643
1,105,986
629,350
111,397
5,290,013
10,840,506
5,016,233
5,381,978
9,741,194
14,131,977
16,945,868
63,453
499,848
33,208,762
1,574,149
Number of Times
Solar Energy
Could Power the
State94
86,183
6,416
75,063
46,860
259,538
53,685
29,492
11,519
11,259
220,674
130,979
9,639
23,712
143,540
105,173
45,709
40,293
89,048
84,731
11,561
61,814
55,313
104,818
67,989
48,388
82,435
13,863
30,828
35,180
10,870
75,053
23,179
143,163
44
1,291
327
107
68
362
1
25
0
24
42
6
315
57
47
154
559
21
49
96
10
2
50
159
104
65
703
458
482
6
7
1,433
11
30 Star Power
State
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming
Electricity
Production from
All Potential
Solar Electricity
Capacity (GWh)
4,329,556
9,777,286
3,742,742
14,472,440
6,586,711
631,733
17,135
2,803,221
11,645,189
2,295,918
62,153,732
10,290,431
57,475
1,932,186
1,947,153
59,938
5,111,137
11,142,414
Number of Times
Solar Energy
Could Power the
State94
128,085
14,717
152,457
59,341
46,689
144,710
7,708
77,781
11,734
96,381
365,104
29,723
5,511
107,795
92,336
30,817
68,820
16,971
34
664
25
244
141
4
2
36
992
24
170
346
10
18
21
2
74
657
Appendix B 31
State
California
Arizona
New Jersey
North Carolina
Massachusetts
Nevada
Colorado
Hawaii
New Mexico
New York
Texas
Pennsylvania
Maryland
Florida
Georgia
Ohio
Connecticut
Tennessee
Delaware
Oregon
Indiana
Missouri
Louisiana
Illinois
Vermont
Washington
Wisconsin
Michigan
District of Columbia
Utah
Minnesota
Virginia
New Hampshire
South Carolina
Kentucky
Rhode Island
Total Solar
Total Solar
PV Capacity
PV Capacity
Installed in 2010 Installed in 2013
(MW-DC)
(MW-DC)
1,021.7
109.8
259.9
40
38.2
104.7
121.1
44.7
43.3
55.5
34.5
54.8
10.9
73.5
1.8
20.7
24.6
4.7
5.6
23.9
0.5
0.7
0.2
15.5
2.9
8
8.7
2.6
4.5
2.1
3.6
2.8
2
0.2
0.2
0.6
5,183.4
1,563.1
1,184.6
469
445
424
360.4
358.2
256.6
240.5
215.9
180.2
175.4
137.3
109.9
98.4
77.1
64.8
62.8
62.8
49.4
48.9
46.6
43.4
41.5
27.4
22.5
22.2
16.5
16
15.1
12.6
9.6
8
7.9
7.6
Percent Annual
Growth in Solar PV
Capacity by State,
2010-2013
71.8%
142.4%
65.8%
127.2%
126.7%
59.4%
43.8%
100.1%
81.0%
63.0%
84.3%
48.7%
152.5%
23.2%
293.8%
68.1%
46.3%
139.8%
123.8%
38.0%
362.3%
311.8%
515.3%
40.9%
142.8%
50.7%
37.3%
104.4%
54.2%
96.8%
61.3%
65.1%
68.7%
242.0%
240.6%
133.1%
Percent of
Electricity Sales
Met by Solar PV
Generation in
2013
2.8%
3.2%
1.8%
0.5%
0.9%
1.8%
0.9%
4.6%
1.7%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.3%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.3%
0.1%
0.6%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
0.8%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
32 Star Power
State
Maine
Iowa
Montana
West Virginia
Alabama
Arkansas
Idaho
Kansas
Mississippi
Wyoming
Oklahoma
Nebraska
Alaska
North Dakota
South Dakota
Total Solar
Total Solar
PV Capacity
PV Capacity
Installed in 2010 Installed in 2013
(MW-DC)
(MW-DC)
0.3
n/a or < 0.1
0.7
n/a or < 0.1
0.4
1
0.4
n/a or < 0.1
0.3
0.2
n/a or < 0.1
0.2
n/a or < 0.1
n/a or < 0.1
n/a or < 0.1
5.3
4.6
3
2.2
1.9
1.8
1.8
1.1
1
1
0.7
0.6
0.2
0.2
n/a or < 0.1
Percent Annual
Growth in Solar PV
Capacity by State,
2010-2013
160.4%
*
62.4%
*
68.1%
21.6%
65.1%
*
49.4%
71.0%
*
44.2%
*
*
*
Percent of
Electricity Sales
Met by Solar PV
Generation in
2013
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
*
Appendix B 33
Table B-3. Estimated Number of Commercial and Residential Rooftops that Could Host
Solar Panels by State
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
State
California
Texas
Florida
New York
Pennsylvania
Illinois
Ohio
Georgia
Michigan
North Carolina
New Jersey
Virginia
Arizona
Washington
Massachusetts
Tennessee
Missouri
Indiana
Alabama
Wisconsin
South Carolina
Minnesota
Maryland
Louisiana
Colorado
Kentucky
Oklahoma
Oregon
Mississippi
Connecticut
Iowa
Nevada
Arkansas
Kansas
New Mexico
Utah
Commercial Rooftops
that Could Host Solar
Panels
415,508
327,770
207,209
155,619
101,493
131,600
117,995
106,406
101,019
113,322
70,489
95,122
57,309
81,610
89,510
83,306
94,998
66,819
57,434
58,530
50,669
84,857
68,380
57,882
49,147
56,522
51,981
46,140
35,552
48,355
48,496
24,127
40,185
45,526
18,238
27,051
Residential Rooftops
that Could Host Solar
Panels
3,701,213
2,741,805
2,438,513
1,787,189
1,226,008
1,163,833
1,128,346
1,109,040
995,518
962,588
786,448
747,646
775,301
641,251
618,287
623,658
598,419
617,855
591,183
579,178
582,327
519,436
527,040
536,506
490,718
426,211
369,082
370,157
346,652
327,360
296,056
319,367
292,210
272,515
244,846
219,291
34 Star Power
Rank
State
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
West Virginia
Nebraska
Maine
Idaho
Hawaii
New Hampshire
Montana
Rhode Island
Delaware
South Dakota
North Dakota
Vermont
Alaska
District of Columbia
Wyoming
Total
Commercial Rooftops
that Could Host Solar
Panels
21,560
29,271
17,902
15,118
15,208
17,787
9,523
14,145
10,657
13,146
11,037
8,431
8,655
7,348
5,461
3,491,426
Residential Rooftops
that Could Host Solar
Panels
194,216
176,940
159,321
148,071
141,584
135,741
106,955
101,776
90,268
81,014
72,435
71,291
67,678
66,054
58,346
31,644,743
Appendix B 35
Notes
1. See Methodology.
2. Stephen Ansolabehere and David Konisky, Energy:
What Americans Really Want, The Boston Globe, 14 September 2014. A 2013 Gallup poll also supports this conclusion: Dennis Jacobe, Americans Want More Emphasis on
Solar, Wind and Natural Gas, Gallup, 27 March 2013.
3. John Farrell, Institute for Local Self-Reliance, Rooftop
Revolution: Changing Everything with Cost-Effective Local
Solar, March 2012.
4. 14,000 MW and 3.2 million homes: Cumulative solar
electricity capacity (including solar photovoltaics and concentrating solar power (CSP)) was at 15.9 GW in the second
quarter of 2014, according to Solar Energy Industries Association, New Report Shows U.S. Solar Industry Nearing 16 GW
of Installed Capacity (press release), 4 September 2014. According to SEIA, 1.9 GW of this capacity is CSP: Solar Energy
Industries Association, Major Solar Projects in the United
States Operating, Under Construction, or Under Development,
15 August 2014. We included only CSP projects that were
listed as operating in the CSP total. 97 MW in 2003: Larry
Sherwood, Interstate Renewable Energy Council, U.S. Solar
Market Trends 2013, July 2014.
5. Solar Energy Industries Association, New Report
Shows U.S. Solar Industry Nearing 16 GW of Installed Capacity
(press release), 4 September 2014.
6. This chart displays year-by-year data through the end
of 2013 from Galen Barbose,Nam Darghouth,Samantha
Weaver andRyan H. Wiser, Lawrence Berkeley National
Laboratory, Tracking the Sun VII: An Historical Summary of
the Installed Price of Photovoltaics in the United States from
1998 to 2013, 2014.
36 Star Power
7. About 0.7 percent, calculated assuming solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity operates at 14 percent capacity and
concentrating solar power (CSP) operates at 46 percent
capacity. Capacity factors based on NRELs national
capacity-to-generation figures in Anthony Lopez, et al.,
National Renewable Energy Laboratory, U.S. Renewable
Energy Technical Potentials: A GIS-Based Analysis, July 2012.
National figures on installed solar PV and CSP as of the
second quarter of 2014: Solar Energy Industries Association, Solar Market Insight Report 2014 Q1, accessed at www.
seia.org/research-resources/solar-market-insight-report2014-q1, 4 September 2014, and see note 5.
8. See note 5.
9. National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Best Research
Cell Efficiencies, accessed at www.nrel.gov, 8 July 2013.
10. Alan C. Goodrich et al, Assessing the Drivers of
Regional Trends in Solar Photovoltaic Manufacturing,
Energy & Environmental Science 6: 2811-2821, doi: 10.1039/
c3ee40701b, 2013.
11. Ehren Goossens, Solar Boom Driving First Global
Panel Shortage Since 2006, Bloomberg, 19 August 2014.
12. Peter Bronski et al., Rocky Mountain Institute, The
Economics of Grid Defection: When and Where Distributed
Solar Generation Plus Storage Competes with Traditional Utility Service, February 2014.
13. See note 6.
14. Michael Aneiro, Barclays Downgrades Electric
Utility Bonds, Sees Viable Solar Competition, Barrons, 23
May 2014.
15. See note 3.
Notes37
September 2014, and 2012 residential electricity consumption reported in U.S. Energy Information Administration,
Short-Term Energy Outlook, 9 September 2014.
38 Star Power
Notes39
40 Star Power