METHODOLOGY

The July 20-26, 2015 NBC News online survey was conducted by SurveyMonkey among a national
sample of 8,228 adults aged 18 and over. The August 7-10, 2015 NBC News online survey reported in
this article was conducted by SurveyMonkey among a national sample of 9,127 adults aged 18 and over.
Respondents for each of these non-probability surveys were selected from the nearly three million
people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day.
Data for each survey have been weighted for age, race, sex, education, and region using the Census
Bureaus American Community Survey to reflect the demographic composition of the United States.
Because the sample is based on those who initially self-selected for participation rather than a
probability sample, no estimates of sampling error can be calculated. All surveys may be subject to
multiple sources of error, including, but not limited to sampling error, coverage error, and measurement
error.
To assess the variability in the estimates and account for design effects, we create a bootstrap
confidence interval, meaning we use the weighted data to generate 1000 independent samples and
calculate the standard deviation of the weighted average using those samples, producing an error
estimate.
When analyzing the survey results and their accuracy, this error estimate should be taken into
consideration in much the same way that analysis of probability polls takes into account the margin of
sampling error. For example, if 47 percent of voters say they support Candidate A and 43 percent of
voters support Candidate B, and the error estimate is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, Candidate A
could be supported by as low as 44 percent of voters and Candidate B could have as high as 47 percent
of support. Therefore, Candidate A does not have a "lead."
The following tables provide the unweighted sample sizes and the error estimates that have been
calculated in place of the margin of sampling error for a variable that is expected to have close to an
even split in most groupings (such as gender):
July 20-26, 2015 NBC News online survey
Group
Unweighted N
Plus or minus
Total sample
8,228
1.6 percentage points
Republican RVs
Democrat RVs

3,060
3,341

2.7 percentage points

2.6 percentage points

18-29
30-44
45-64
65+

1,082
1,909
3,855
1,382

4.1 percentage points

3.4 percentage points
2.4 percentage points
3.9 percentage points

White
Black
Hispanic
Other

6,628
586
428
490

1.8 percentage points

5.8 percentage points
6.1 percentage points
6.3 percentage points

August 7-10, 2015 NBC News online survey

Group
Unweighted N
Plus or minus
Total sample
9,127
1.5 percentage points
Republican RVs
Democrat RVs

3,991
3,214

2.2 percentage points

2.6 percentage points

18-29
30-44
45-64
65+

1,109
2,015
4,273
1,730

4.1 percentage points

3.1 percentage points
2.2 percentage points
3.2 percentage points

White
Black
Hispanic
Other

7,375
566
453
733

1.5 percentage points

5.2 percentage points
5.9 percentage points
4.9 percentage points

Omitted table from the article:

Female
High school education or less
Age: 18-24
Age: 65+
Under $50k
$100k+
White
Self-identified very conservative
Evangelical
Religious attendance - at least once/week

Sample size (N)

Average - Non Trump

Republicans
47%
34%
9%
23%
27%
31%
82%
19%
46%
46%
3,719
(unweighted)

Average Trump
Republicans
41%
43%
6%
24%
31%
28%
87%
21%
37%
32%
932
(unweighted)

Difference in
Averages (Trump
Republicans Non-Trump
Republicans)
-6
9
-3
1
4
-3
5
-2
-9
-14