Statistics Controlled Assessment

Climate
Joseph Babalola-Davies
Centre Number: 10834

Investigation:
To find out if there is a correlation between the increase of hotter weather
in the summer and the increase of colder the weather in the winter and to
find out if the increased amount CO2 levels is the cause of these changes.
Aim:
My aim is to investigate whether increased CO2 emissions globally
correlate with increased annual temperatures and to investigate if there is
a correlation between the increased summer temperatures and the
decreased winter temperatures.
Hypothesis:
I predict that the winter and summer temperature over the last 10 years
have changed. Summer temperatures have become hotter and winter
temperatures have become colder.
Plan:
In my coursework, I plan to investigate the difference of temperatures
between this year and the previous 10 years. I will be investigating the
difference in temperature of the summers and winters of 2014 and 2005.
I will conduct this investigation, by using the Meteorological Offices
results as the source of my data, from this I will investigate in what way
that the CO2 level shave affected the average temperature over the years.
I will collect temperatures from the summers and winters of 2005-2014. I
will get my results using summer and a winter temperature, as this is
where the coldest and hottest temperature are more apparent. After
collecting the data, I will calculate the mean average temperature for
summer and winter and then, I will the compare minimum temperatures
with the maximum temperatures of each respective year. After collecting
my data I will use Spearman's rank correlation coefficient to find out if my
data has a correlation between summer and winter, which will also

determine if there is a negative correlation or a positive correlation

between the data.
If there is a positive correlation, this can prove that the winter and
summer temperatures are going in the same direction in warmth or
coldness.
Data will be obtained from the Meteorological Office as I will use
secondary data to conduct my investigation. I will use this site because
the Met Office is gives of the most accurate forecast as they give a five
day prediction of the weather, for any location in Britain. The Met Office
weather forecasts are around 30-40% accurate when predicting weather
but since I am looking at past weather forecasts, that have already taken
place it will not affect the accuracy of my results. I also plan to use other
sites such as the NASA which shall be a source for CO2 levels.
I will analyse and compare the results with each other from each years
average results and compare the summer and winters results with each
year. Then I will calculate how much change there is within each year to
see if there is an increase or decrease in temperature. I have chosen to
investigate over the last 10 years as technology has been more accurate
at collecting data over the last 10, rather than using all the data from
before that, which may not be as accurate. I have not used a random
sample to get my results as, I am investigating the correlation
between the rise of temperature in the summer and the decrease of
temperature in the winter over the course of 10 years. If I was to use a
random sample, I will get inconsistent results as collecting random years
will mean I would not be able to see how temperature changed over the
years. So I have decided to use the recent 10 years, where temperature
fluctuation are more apparent for comparisons data

Collection of data
UK Minimum Temperature (Degrees C)
Year

WINTER

SUMMER

ANNUAL

2005

1.88

10.53

5.88

2006

1.11

11.14

6.11

2007

2.79

10.22

5.95

2008

1.64

10.61

5.47

2009

0.39

10.58

5.55

2010

-1.18

10.40

4.24

2011

-0.46

9.43

5.98

2012

1.73

10.19

5.21

2013

0.68

10.66

5.21

2014

2.48

10.46

6.31

These Results are the average minimum temperature of the season of

each year in degrees Celsius, with the average annual minimum
temperature for each year. Looking at the data it seems that the annual
average minimum temperature has fluctuated over the recent past 5
years
Average CO2(ppm)
379.92
381.79
382.42
385.56
387.31
389.73
391.83
394.28
396.81
398.78

Years
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014

Average CO2 (ppm)

UK Maximum Temperature (Degrees C)

Year

WINTER

SUMMER

ANNUAL

2005

7.55

19.07

13.05

2006

6.61

20.47

13.38

2007

8.34

18.07

13.26

2008

8.11

18.40

12.67

2009

6.05

18.99

12.82

2010

4.50

18.95

11.73

2011

5.34

17.95

13.34

2012

7.45

17.73

12.36

2013

6.03

19.73

12.36

2014

7.98

19.24

13.52

Looking the UK Maximum Temperature 2014 has the highest annual

temperature as well as the highest ever recorded since 1910. When
calculating with Spearmans rank I will only use the annual temperature
as it is the average temperature for all the months and use it to compare
with the CO2 emission emitted. I will compare the summer temperatures
with the winter temperature to see if there is a correlation between these
two

Mini WIN

Rank WIN

Mini SUM

Rank SUM

Difference

d2

1.88
1.11
2.79
1.64
0.39
-1.18
-0.46

8
5
10
6
3
1
2

10.53
11.14
10.22
10.61
10.58
10.4
9.43

6
10
3
8
7
4
1

(d)
2
-5
7
-2
-4
-3
1

4
25
49
4
16
9
1

1.73
0.68
2.48

7
4
9

10.19
10.66
10.46

2
9
5

5
-5
4
d2
6d2

25
25
16
174
1044

Processing, analysing and representing data

Minimum temperature was used to calculate the link between winter and
summer temperatures. From using Spearmans rank correlation I have
worked out that theres a negative correlation between the two daters.
Spearman's rank correlation coefficient:
1 - (6 x 174)/ (103-10) = -0.0545454545455.
From the Spearman's rank correlation coefficient: -0.1 (to 1 significant
figure) we can say that it shows that the two set of data show a negative
correlation but it is a weak correlation.
To calculate the UKs mean average temperature over the last 10 years, I
will use standard deviation to calculate the variability and diversity of these
results, collected from the Meteorological Office. A low standard deviation
indicates that the data points are very close to the mean, whereas high
standard deviation would have indicated that the data is spread out over a
large range of values, so this will mean that the data is accurate.
I used a sample population, which is the process of taking a subset of
samples that which represents an entire population. For this reason, a
sample standard deviation was used as it is used for a finite set of
samples whilst a population deviation requires all samples. I could not
attain data prior back to 1910 or evaluate all data from 1910 and
onwards. This is an impractical quantity of data to process, use and
compare. So a sample deviation would be more preferred over a
population deviation.
The standard deviation is a measure which summarises the amount by
which every value within a data varies from the mean. It effectively

indicates how tightly the values in the dataset are bunched around the
mean value, which is why I am using standard deviation. It is the most
robust and widely used measured of dispersion since, unlike the range
and inter-quartile range; it takes into account every variable in the
dataset. When the values in a dataset are tightly bunched together the
standard deviation is small. When the values are spread apart the
standard deviation will be relatively large.
For datasets that have a normal distribution, the standard deviation can
be used to determine the proportion of values that lie within a particular
range of the mean value. For such distributions, it is always the case that
68% of values are less than one standard deviation (1SD) away from the
mean value. 95% of values are less than two standard deviations (2SD)
away from the mean. 99% of values are less than three standard
deviations (3SD) away from the mean. The graph below shows this
concept in diagrammatical form.

Minimum winter temperature

X

x (1.106)mean

(mean)2

1.88
1.11
2.79
1.64
0.39
-1.18
-0.46
1.73
0.68
2.48
11.06

1.88-1.106= 0.774
1.11 -1.106= 0.004
2.79-1.106= 1.684
1.64 -1.106= 0.534
0.39 -1.106= -0.716
-1.18 -1.106= -2.286
-0.46 -1.106= -1.566
1.73-1.106= 0.624
0.68 -1.106= -0.426
2.48 -1.106= 1.374

0.599076
1.6 x 10-5
2.835856
0.285156
0.512656
5.225796
2.452356
0.389376
0.181476
1.887876
14.36964

Mean

1.88+1.11+2.79+1.64+0.39+-1.18+-0.46+1.73+0.68+2.48= 11.06
11.06 10=1.106(mean)
Sample Standard Deviation: (14.36964 (10-1) = 1.2635769334

Minimum summer temperature

X

x 10.422(mean)

(mean)2

10.53

10.53 - 10.422=0.108

0.011664

11.14

11.14- 10.422=0.718

0.515524

10.22

10.22- 10.422=-0.202

0.040804

10.61

10.61- 10.422=0.188

0.035344

10.58

10.58- 10.422=0.158

0.024964

10.40
9.43
10.19
10.66

10.40- 10.422=-0.022
9.43- 10.422=-0.992
10.19- 10.422=-0.232
10.66- 10.422=0.238

0.000484
0.984064
0.053824
0.056644

10.46

10.46- 10.422=0.038

0.001444

104.22

1.72476

Mean
10.53+11.14+10.22+10.61+10.58+10.40+9.43+10.19+10.66+10.46

10.422
104.2210=10.422
Sample Standard Deviation :( 1.72476 (10-1) = 0.437767061347
By calculating the standard deviation I got 0.437767061347 this is a
relative low number, this indicates that the mean of my minimum
temperature are close to the mean value.

Discussion

Winter Minimum temperature averages

12
10
8

Winter Minimum
temperature averages

6
4
2
0

Summer minimum temperature averages

12
10
8

Summer Minimum
temperature averages

6
4
2
0

This
graph shows the speared of the temperatures. A data set with a mean of
1.106 which is shown by the blue line. 80% of the values lie within 1
standard deviation of the mean. 90% of the values lie within 2 standard

deviations of the mean. 100% of the values lie within 3 standard

deviations of the mean.

60% of the values lay Within 1 standard deviation of the mean. 100% of
the values lay 2 within standard deviation of the mean. Line represents
mean data which is 10.422.

1-(6x188.5)/ (103-10) = -0.142424242424. We can say that it shows that

the two sets of data show weak, negative correlation.
Looking at this graph I can clearly see that there is little correlation
between the annual temperature and CO2 levels.
Year
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014

Rank

ANNUL Max
ANNUL
Max
13.05
13.38
13.26
12.67
12.82
11.73
13.34
12.36
12.36
13.52

Rank

Difference
Average

2
CO2d(ppm)

(d)
379.92

381.79
382.42
385.56
387.31
389.73
391.83
394.28
396.81
398.78

AverageCO2
379.92

13.05

-5

25

381.79

13.38

-7

49

382.42

13.26

-4

16

385.56

12.67

387.31

12.82

389.73

11.73

25

391.83

13.34

-1

394.28

12.36

2.5

5.5

30.25

396.81

12.36

2.5

6.5

42.25

398.78

10

13.52

10

6d2

188.5
1131

By calculating the correlation of these two data, I had found out that
theres a negative correlation between the two data. This suggest the
amount of CO2 in the air globally has not in fact influenced the
temperature in the UK as the Spearmans ranking shows there is a -0.1
correlation, which means there is a very weak correlation between the
two.

In my graph, the temperature moves in a similar direction, however the

change is too small to notice at some points, but in between 2007 and
2006 there are dips in both CO2 levels and temperature and gradually the
temperature also increases along with the CO2 levels showing there is a
correlation.
UK Minimum Temperature
Summer & Winter
12
10
8

Temperature(C )

6
4
2
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
-2

Looking at this graph, I can see there is some sort of correlation between
the summer temperatures and the winter temperatures, however there is
a weak correlation between the two data. On the other hand, there is a
trend where there is temperature fluctuation. The two line graphs have a
weak

correlation,

but

this

does

support

my

hypothesis.

had hypothesized, that the warmer summer was, the warmer winter
would be resulting, in a positive correlation as shown in the graph.

Max summer & Minimum winter

temperature
25
20
15
temperature(Celsius)

10
5
0
1
-5

10

Interpretation of data and discussion of results

To conclude, I believe that my hypothesis about the global temperatures
affecting the temperatures in the UK was correct, but it appears when
using Spearmans rank to show a correlation it comes out with a
negative correlation, suggesting that two of my datas are moving away
from each instead of the same direction. My data on CO2 emissions
suggest that CO2 levels and annual temperature have steadily gone up, as
it does correlate with NASAs graph of CO2 levels.
These fluctuations may be due to natural respiration of plants which take
in

carbon

dioxide, causing

these

fluctuated movements on

the

graph. However, I believe my hypothesis about the increased winter and

summer temperatures were correct as my graph shows when winter

temperatures increased so did the summer temperatures showing a
correlation to these yearly changes as shown in the maximum summer
and the minimum temperature chart.
When using Standard deviation on my minimum summer result, my
calculations had shown that the data was close to the average. My
minimum winter data was more dispersed in terms of averages, as shown
in the scatter graph, meaning it was not close to the average mean data.
This suggests there were outliers in minimum winter results. This may
have caused slight errors in my investigation.
When comparing CO2 levels with annual temperature, I had attained a
negative correlation coefficient due global warmings effect upon climate
levels, which may have caused the temperature variations, as I did not
take into account that global warming can cause colder climates than
usual, such as in 2010 which had one of the coldest but also one of the
highest temperatures to date. Caused by the hot air around the globe
condensing into moisture, and then was released in the form of snow
which had caused the cooler temperature in 2010.

When storms occur, this added moisture can fuel heavier precipitation in
the

form

of

more

intense

rain

or snow,

which causes

these

abnormal temperatures, which I had not taken into account when forming
my hypothesis. Such years should have been omitted in my investigation.
The seasons we experience are a result of the Earths tilted axis as it
revolves around the sun. During 2010s winter crises, our hemisphere was
tilted away from the sun and its light hits us at a different angle, making
temperatures lower.
An increased sample of data would have been better than to use,
however my results were only skewed due to climate change making
weather unpredictable. For such reason, there were negative correlations

in my data, as the weather has become more severe it was only natural,
that such investigation would have had irregular results.

Bibliography
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tma
x/date/UK.txt
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmin
/date/UK.txt
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/global.html
http://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation
https://www2.ucar.edu/climate/faq/how-much-carbon-dioxide-and-otherkinds-greenhouse-gas-already-atmosphere

https://statistics.laerd.com/statistical-guides/measures-of-spreadabsolute-deviation-variance.php
http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/global.html
http://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/data/data.html
ftp://aftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/products/trends/co2/co2_mm_mlo.txt
http://www.loc.gov/rr/scitech/mysteries/seasons.html