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South China Sea: The Strategic Implications of Chinas Artificial Islands

Presentation to the Joint Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade,
Parliament House, Canberra, August 18, 2015
Carlyle A. Thayer, Emeritus Professor
There are four main drivers behind Chinas policy of constructing artificial islands in the South China
Sea: nationalism, fisheries, hydrocarbons and strategic imperatives. Strategic imperatives are the
most important. China seeks to counter the Obama Administrations policy of rebalancing towards
the Asia-Pacific by developing sufficient military power to dominate the first island chain running
south from Japan, Okinawa, Taiwan, and the Philippines. China seeks to dominate the South China
Sea to protect its sea lines of communications and to secure its southern flank against intervention
by the U.S. Navy and Air Force. Chinas artificial islands in the centre of the South China Sea will
serve as forward operating bases for Chinese fisheries and hydrocarbon industries as well as
maritime law enforcement agencies. More importantly, the infrastructure on these artificial islands
will support a growing military presence in the future. China has not just changed facts on the
ground but is altering the regional naval balance of power. This presentation concludes by arguing
that present U.S. and Australian policies are unlikely to dissuade China from its current course of
action. In summary, China is slowly and deliberately excising the maritime heart out of Southeast
Asia.

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Chinas Perspective: U.S. Rebalancing is About Containing China

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Chinas Counter-Intervention Strategy
Dominate the 1st Island Chain and Protect Chinas Southern Flank in South China Sea

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Chinas Power Projection Capabilities Are Growing
Major Naval Base on south of Hainan Island dock enlarged for aircraft carrier

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Strike Range from Yulin Naval Base

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Chinas Forward Operating Bases in the South China Sea
Infrastructure-building on Artificial Islands in the Spratlys

China: Extension of Runway on Woody Island, Paracels

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Chinas Construction on Fiery Cross Reef

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Mischief Reef

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Chinas Construction on Cuarteron, Gaven, Hughes and Johnson South Reefs

Cuarteron Reef

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Malaysia: China Maintaining a Permanent Presence near Luconia Breakers