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GDP redirects here. For other uses, see GDP (disam- and adds value to it by producing a car; double counting
biguation).
would occur if GDP added together the value of the steel
Gross domestic product (GDP) is a measure of the size and the value of the car.[3] Because it is based on value
added, GDP also increases when an enterprise reduces
its use of materials or other resources ('intermediate consumption') to produce the same output.
The more familiar use of GDP estimates is to calculate
the growth of the economy from year to year (and recently
from quarter to quarter). The pattern of GDP growth is
held to indicate the success or failure of economic policy
and to determine whether an economy is 'in recession'.
A map of world economies by size of GDP (nominal) in $US,
CIA World Factbook, 2012.[1]
1 History
William Petty came up with a basic concept of GDP to
defend landlords against unfair taxation during warfare
between the Dutch and the English between 1652 and
1674.[4] Charles Davenant developed the method further
in 1695. [5] The modern concept of GDP was rst developed by Simon Kuznets for a US Congress report in
1934.[6] In this report, Kuznets warned against its use as a
measure of welfare (see below under limitations and criticisms). After the Bretton Woods conference in 1944,
GDP became the main tool for measuring a countrys
economy.[7] At that time Gross National Product (GNP)
was the preferred estimate, which diered from GDP
in that it measured production by a countrys citizens
at home and abroad rather than its 'resident institutional
units (see OECD denition above). The switch to GDP
was in the 1980s.
The history of the concept of GDP should be distinguished from the history of changes in ways of estimating
it. The value added by rms is relatively easy to calculate from their accounts, but the value added by the public sector, by nancial industries, and by intangible asset
creation is more complex. These activities are increasingly important in developed economies, and the international conventions governing their estimation and their
inclusion or exclusion in GDP regularly change in an attempt to keep up with industrial advances. In the words
of one academic economist The actual number for GDP
is therefore the product of a vast patchwork of statistics
and a complicated set of processes carried out on the raw
data to t them to the conceptual framework.[8]
GDP estimates are commonly used to measure the economic performance of a whole country or region, but can
also measure the relative contribution of an industry sector. This is possible because GDP is a measure of 'value
added' rather than sales; it adds each rms value added
(the value of its output minus the value of goods that are Angus Maddison calculated historical GDP gures going
used up in producing it). For example, a rm buys steel back to 1830 and before.
1
2 DETERMINING GDP
Determining GDP
2.1
Production approach
4. Farmers incomes
5. Income from non-farm unincorporated businesses
These ve income components sum to net domestic inThe gross value of all sectors is then added to get the gross
come at factor cost.
value added (GVA) at factor cost. Subtracting each sectors intermediate consumption from gross output gives Two adjustments must be made to get GDP:
the GDP at factor cost. Adding indirect tax minus sub1. Indirect taxes minus subsidies are added to get from
sidies in GDP at factor cost gives the GDP at producer
factor cost to market prices.
prices.
2.3
Expenditure approach
The sum of COE, GOS and GMI is called total factor income; it is the income of all of the factors of production
in society. It measures the value of GDP at factor (basic) prices. The dierence between basic prices and nal
prices (those used in the expenditure calculation) is the
total taxes and subsidies that the government has levied
or paid on that production. So adding taxes less subsidies
on production and imports converts GDP at factor cost to
GDP(I).
Total factor income is also sometimes expressed as:
Total factor income = employee compensation
+ corporate prots + proprietors income +
rental income + net interest [11]
Yet another formula for GDP by the income method is:
GDP = R + I + P + SA + W
where R : rents
I : interests
P : prots
SA : statistical adjustments (corporate income taxes, dividends, undistributed corporate prots)
W : wages.
2 DETERMINING GDP
rent, jewelry, gasoline, and medical expenses but Note that C, G, and I are expenditures on nal goods and
does not include the purchase of new housing.
services; expenditures on intermediate goods and services
do not count. (Intermediate goods and services are those
I (investment) includes, for instance, business in- used by businesses to produce other goods and services
vestment in equipment, but does not include ex- within the accounting year.[12] )
changes of existing assets. Examples include construction of a new mine, purchase of software, or According to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis,
purchase of machinery and equipment for a factory. which is responsible for calculating the national accounts
Spending by households (not government) on new in the United States, In general, the source data for
houses is also included in investment. In contrast to the expenditures components are considered more reliits colloquial meaning, investment in GDP does able than those for the income components [see income
[13]
not mean purchases of nancial products. Buying method, below].
nancial products is classed as 'saving', as opposed
to investment. This avoids double-counting: if one 2.3.2 Examples of GDP component variables
buys shares in a company, and the company uses
the money received to buy plant, equipment, etc., C, I, G, and NX(net exports): If a person spends money
the amount will be counted toward GDP when the to renovate a hotel to increase occupancy rates, the spendcompany spends the money on those things; to also ing represents private investment, but if he buys shares in
count it when one gives it to the company would be a consortium to execute the renovation, it is saving. The
to count two times an amount that only corresponds former is included when measuring GDP (in I), the latto one group of products. Buying bonds or stocks is ter is not. However, when the consortium conducted its
a swapping of deeds, a transfer of claims on future own expenditure on renovation, that expenditure would
production, not directly an expenditure on products. be included in GDP.
G (government spending) is the sum of
government expenditures on nal goods and
services. It includes salaries of public servants,
purchases of weapons for the military and any
investment expenditure by a government. It does
not include any transfer payments, such as social
security or unemployment benets.
5
iad human activities are to be included in or
excluded from the measure of the economic
production.[14]
All output for market is at least in theory included within
the boundary. Market output is dened as that which is
sold for economically signicant prices; economically
signicant prices are prices which have a signicant inuence on the amounts producers are willing to supply
and purchasers wish to buy.[15] An exception is that illegal goods and services are often excluded even if they
are sold at economically signicant prices (Australia and
the United States exclude them).
This leaves non-market output. It is partly excluded and
partly included. First, natural processes without human
involvement or direction are excluded.[16] Also, there
must be a person or institution that owns or is entitled
to compensation for the product. An example of what
is included and excluded by these criteria is given by the
United States national accounts agency: the growth of
trees in an uncultivated forest is not included in production, but the harvesting of the trees from that forest is
included.[17]
Within the limits so far described, the boundary is further
constricted by functional considerations.[18] The Australian Bureau for Statistics explains this: The national
accounts are primarily constructed to assist governments
and others to make market-based macroeconomic policy
decisions, including analysis of markets and factors affecting market performance, such as ination and unemployment. Consequently, production that is, according
to them, relatively independent and isolated from markets, or dicult to value in an economically meaningful way [i.e., dicult to put a price on] is excluded.[19]
Thus excluded are services provided by people to members of their own families free of charge, such as child
rearing, meal preparation, cleaning, transportation, entertainment of family members, emotional support, care of
the elderly.[20] Most other production for own (or ones
familys) use is also excluded, with two notable exceptions which are given in the list later in this section.
Non-market outputs that are included within the boundary are listed below. Since, by denition, they do not
have a market price, the compilers of GDP must impute
a value to them, usually either the cost of the goods and
services used to produce them, or the value of a similar
item that is sold on the market.
Goods and services provided by governments and
non-prot organizations free of charge or for economically insignicant prices are included. The
value of these goods and services is estimated as
equal to their cost of production. This ignores
the consumer surplus generated by an ecient and
eective government supplied infrastructure. For
example, government-provided clean water confers
substantial benets above its cost. Ironically, lack
3 GDP vs GNI
GDP can be contrasted with gross national product
(GNP) or, as it is now known, gross national income
(GNI). The dierence is that GDP denes its scope according to location, while GNI denes its scope according
to ownership. In a global context, world GDP and world ganizations normally do not have access to the informaGNI are, therefore, equivalent terms.
tion required (especially information on expenditure and
GDP is product produced within a countrys borders; production by governments).
GNI is product produced by enterprises owned by a countrys citizens. The two would be the same if all of the productive enterprises in a country were owned by its own
citizens, and those citizens did not own productive enterprises in any other countries. In practice, however, foreign ownership makes GDP and GNI non-identical. Production within a countrys borders, but by an enterprise
owned by somebody outside the country, counts as part
of its GDP but not its GNI; on the other hand, production
by an enterprise located outside the country, but owned
by one of its citizens, counts as part of its GNI but not its
GDP.
For example, the GNI of the USA is the value of output
produced by American-owned rms, regardless of where
the rms are located. Similarly, if a country becomes increasingly in debt, and spends large amounts of income
servicing this debt this will be reected in a decreased
GNI but not a decreased GDP. Similarly, if a country
sells o its resources to entities outside their country this
will also be reected over time in decreased GNI, but not
decreased GDP. This would make the use of GDP more
attractive for politicians in countries with increasing national debt and decreasing assets.
Within each country GDP is normally measured by a national government statistical agency, as private sector or-
7
GDP in year n 1)
GDP is an aggregate gure that does not consider diering sizes of nations. Therefore, GDP can be stated as
GDP per capita (per person) in which total GDP is divided by the resident population on a given date, GDP
per citizen where total GDP is divided by the numbers of
citizens residing in the country on a given date, and less
commonly GDP per unit of a resource input, such as GDP
per GJ of energy or Gross domestic product per barrel.
GDP per citizen in the above case is similar to GDP per
capita in most nations. However, in nations with very high
proportions of temporary foreign workers like in Persian
Gulf nations, the two gures can be vastly dierent.
Source:Helgi Library,[28] World Bank
GDP per capita is often used as an indicator of living standards.[29] Notably on the rationale that all citizens would benet from their countrys increased economic production as it leads to an increase in consumption opportunities which in turn increases the standard of
living.[30] Similarly, GDP per capita is not a measure of
personal income. In fact GDP may increase while real
The ranking of countries may dier signicantly based on incomes for the majority decline.
which method is used.
The major advantage of GDP per capita as an indicator of
The current exchange rate method converts the standard of living is that it is measured frequently, widely,
value of goods and services using global currency and consistently. It is measured frequently in that most
exchange rates. The method can oer better indica- countries provide information on GDP on a quarterly bations of a countrys international purchasing power. sis, allowing trends to be seen quickly. It is measured
For instance, if 10% of GDP is being spent on buy- widely in that some measure of GDP is available for aling hi-tech foreign arms, the number of weapons most every country in the world, allowing inter-country
purchased is entirely governed by current exchange comparisons. It is measured consistently in that the techrates, since arms are a traded product bought on the nical denition of GDP is relatively consistent among
international market. There is no meaningful 'local' countries.
price distinct from the international price for high
technology goods.nanks 10th by nominal GDP, but
3rd by PPP. The PPP method of GDP conversion
is more relevant to non-traded goods and services.
In the above example if hi-tech weapons are to be
produced internally their amount will be governed
by GDP(PPP) rather than nominal GDP.
GDP is a neutral measure which merely shows an economys general ability to pay for externalities such as social
and environmental concerns.[31] In essence it is intended
to be a measure of total national economic activity a
separate concept. As a consequence GDP not does include several factors that inuence the standard of living.
In particular, it fails to account for:
Quality improvements and inclusion of new It can be argued that GDP per capita as an indicator stanproducts by not adjusting for quality improve- dard of living can be proven through these factors:[29][33]
ments and new products, GDP understates true
economic growth. For instance, although comput More goods and services are available to consumers
ers today are less expensive and more powerful than
computers from the past, GDP treats them as the
Consumers are in a better position to buy goods.
same products by only accounting for the monetary
Productivity correlates with standard of living, and
value. The introduction of new products is also difGDP per capita takes this into account.
cult to measure accurately and is not reected in
GDP despite the fact that it may increase the stan People who live in countries with higher real GDP
dard of living. For example, even the richest perper capita tend to be more educated and live longer.
son in 1900 could not purchase standard products,
such as antibiotics and cell phones, that an average
Goods and services are a key element of economic
consumer can buy today, since such modern convewell-being.
niences did not exist then.
What is being produced GDP counts work that
produces no net change or that results from repairing harm. For example, rebuilding after a natural disaster or war may produce a considerable
amount of economic activity and thus boost GDP.
GDP per capita as a standard of living is a continued usage because of that fact that people have a fairly accurate
idea of what it is and that it is tough to come up with quantitative measures for things like wellbeing, quality of life,
and happiness.[29]
9
In conclusion, the argument for using GDP as a standard- world, and, therefore, has little or no value in economic
of-living proxy is not that it is a good indicator of the analysis. Says Shostak:[35]
absolute level of standard of living, but that living standards tend to move with per-capita GDP, so that changes
The GDP framework cannot tell us
in living standards are readily detected through changes
whether nal goods and services that were
in GDP.
produced during a particular period of time
are a reection of real wealth expansion,
or a reection of capital consumption. For
instance, if a government embarks on the
8 Limitations and criticisms
building of a pyramid, which adds absolutely
nothing to the well-being of individuals, the
Simon Kuznets, the economist who developed the rst
GDP framework will regard this as economic
comprehensive set of measures of national income, stated
growth. In reality, however, the building of
in his rst report to the US Congress in 1934, in a
the pyramid will divert real funding from
section titled Uses and Abuses of National Income
wealth-generating activities, thereby stiing
[6]
Measurements":
the production of wealth.
The valuable capacity of the human mind
to simplify a complex situation in a compact
characterization becomes dangerous when not
controlled in terms of denitely stated criteria.
With quantitative measurements especially, the
deniteness of the result suggests, often misleadingly, a precision and simplicity in the outlines of the object measured. Measurements of
national income are subject to this type of illusion and resulting abuse, especially since they
deal with matters that are the center of conict
of opposing social groups where the eectiveness of an argument is often contingent upon
oversimplication. [...]
All these qualications upon estimates of
national income as an index of productivity are
just as important when income measurements
are interpreted from the point of view of economic welfare. But in the latter case additional
diculties will be suggested to anyone who
wants to penetrate below the surface of total
gures and market values. Economic welfare
cannot be adequately measured unless the personal distribution of income is known. And no
income measurement undertakes to estimate
the reverse side of income, that is, the intensity and unpleasantness of eort going into the
earning of income. The welfare of a nation can,
therefore, scarcely be inferred from a measurement of national income as dened above.
In 1962, Kuznets stated:[34]
Distinctions must be kept in mind between
quantity and quality of growth, between costs
and returns, and between the short and long
run. Goals for more growth should specify
more growth of what and for what.
Austrian School economist Frank Shostak has argued that
GDP is an empty abstraction devoid of any link to the real
So what are we to make out of the periodical pronouncements that the economy, as depicted by real GDP, grew by a particular percentage? All we can say is that this percentage
has nothing to do with real economic growth
and that it most likely mirrors the pace of monetary pumping. We can thus conclude that the
GDP framework is an empty abstraction devoid of any link to the real world.
The UKs Natural Capital Committee highlighted the
shortcomings of GDP in its advice to the UK Government in 2013, pointing out that GDP focusses on ows,
not stocks. As a result an economy can run down its assets
yet, at the same time, record high levels of GDP growth,
until a point is reached where the depleted assets act as a
check on future growth. They then went on to say that
it is apparent that the recorded GDP growth rate overstates the sustainable growth rate. Broader measures of
wellbeing and wealth are needed for this and there is a
danger that short-term decisions based solely on what is
currently measured by national accounts may prove to be
costly in the long-term.
Many environmentalists argue that GDP is a poor measure of social progress because it does not take into account harm to the environment.[36][37]
In 1989 Herman Daly and John B. Cobb developed the
Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare (ISEW), which
they proposed as a more valid measure of socio-economic
progress, by taking into account various other factors such
as consumption of non-renewable resources and degradation of the environment.
10
10
OECD Better Life Index - The better lives compendium of indicators produced in 2011 reects
some 10 years by the organisation to develop a wider
of set of indicators more closely attuned to the measurement of wellbeing or welfare outcomes. There
is felt to be considerable convergence (in 2011) in
high income countries about the kinds of dimensions
that should be included in such multi-dimensional
approaches to welfare measurement - see for instance the capabilities measurement research project
capabilities approach.
Composite Wealth Indicators Namely yearly material wealth (an amended version of GNI to include depletion of natural resources and the costs
of pollution), biological wealth (measured through
life expectancy) and thus expected material wealth
(or physical wealth), a linear combination of biological and yearly material wealth (the amount of material wealth expected to be produced by an individual
during his/her lifetime).[39]
Future Orientation Index - Tobias Preis et al. used
Google Trends data to demonstrate that Internet
users from countries with a higher per capita gross
domestic product (GDP) are more likely to search
for information about the future than information
about the past. The ndings, published in the journal Scientic Reports, suggest there may be a link
between online behaviour and real-world economic
indicators.[40][41][42] The authors of the study examined Google search queries made by Internet users
in 45 dierent countries in 2010 and calculated the
ratio of the volume of searches for the coming year
('2011') to the volume of searches for the previous
year ('2009'), which they call the 'future orientation index'.[43] They compared the future orientation index to the per capita GDP of each country
and found a strong tendency for countries in which
Google users enquire more about the future to exhibit a higher GDP. The results hint that there may
potentially be a relationship between the economic
success of a country and the information-seeking behaviour of its citizens online.
World Governance Index - Basing their work on the
United Nations Millennium Declaration, which was
the subject of unprecedented U.N. consensus among
the heads of state and government who adopted it
in 2000, a team of researchers of the Forum for
a new World Governance (FnWG) focused its research on the ve main concepts dening the application framework of world governance and constituting key goals to be reached by 2015: Peace
and Security; Democracy and Rule of Law; Human
Rights and Participation; Sustainable Development
and Human Development
Social Progress Index - measures the extent to which
countries provide for the social and environmental
11
needs of their citizens. Fifty-two indicators in the
areas of basic human needs, foundations of wellbeing, and opportunity show the relative performance
of nations. The index uses outcome measures when
there is sucient data available or the closest possible proxies.
11
See also
12
13 FURTHER READING
[33] How Real GDP per Capita Aects the Standard of Living. Study.com.
[34] Simon Kuznets. How To Judge Quality. The New Republic, October 20, 1962
[16] This and the following statement on entitlement to compensation are from Australian National Accounts: Concepts, Sources and Methods, 2000, section 4.6.
[17] Concepts and Methods of the United States National Income and Product Accounts, page 2-2.
[18] Concepts and Methods of the United States National Income and Product Accounts, page 2-2.
[20] Concepts and Methods of the United States National Income and Product Accounts, page 2-2; and Australian National Accounts: Concepts, Sources and Methods, 2000,
section 4.4.
[21] Concepts and Methods of the United States National Income and Product Accounts, page 2-4.
[22] Concepts and Methods of the United States National Income and Product Accounts, page 2-5.
[23] Lequiller, Franois; Derek Blades (2006). Understanding
National Accounts. OECD. p. 18. ISBN 978-92-6402566-0. To convert GDP into GNI, it is necessary to
add the income received by resident units from abroad and
deduct the income created by production in the country
but transferred to units residing abroad.
[24] United States, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Glossary,
GDP. Retrieved November 2009.
[25] U.S. Department of Commerce. Bureau of Economic
Analysis. Bea.gov. 2009-10-21. Retrieved 2010-07-31.
Nytimes.com.
August
13 Further reading
Coyle, Diane (2014). GDP: A Brief but Aectionate
History. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
ISBN 978-0-691-15679-8.
Australian Bureau for Statistics, Australian National
Accounts: Concepts, Sources and Methods, 2000.
Retrieved November 2009. In depth explanations
of how GDP and other national accounts items are
determined.
United States Department of Commerce, Bureau of
Economic Analysis, Concepts and Methods of the
United States National Income and Product Accounts
PDF. Retrieved November 2009. In depth explanations of how GDP and other national accounts items
are determined.
14.3
14
External links
14.1
13
Whether output and CPI ination are mismeasured,
by Nouriel Roubini and David Backus, in Lectures
in Macroeconomics
Global
GDP-indexed bonds
UN Statistical Databases
14.2
Data
Ocial United
14.3
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