2015

Module 6
Introduction to Flood
estimation and modelling
Ir Dr Kelvin Kuok
Faculty of Engineering, Computing & Science
Room E613
kkuok@swinburne.edu.my

CVE30001 Urban Water Resources

Flood Modelling Estimation

Main Focus for Civil Engineers

Modelling Rainfall Runoff Processes

Complex Computer Models
Spatial and Temporal Variation in Characteristics
Event Model vs Continuous Simulation
Model Whole Hydrograph
Simple Analysis Methods
Peak Runoff Estimation rational method
- Probabilistic or Statistical Estimate
Statistical Analysis from Observed Floods

Peak Runoff

Runoff Generation

Flood Modelling Process

Estimation of Specific Floods also Important

Input data - Actual Rainfall Events
Calibration of Models etc.

Requires Deterministic Approach

Model Describes a Mechanism
Initial and Boundary Conditions include catchment area, landuse, hydraulic

structures, river length, river cross section, riverbed slope etc.

Must Model all Conditions

Why Estimate Runoff from Rainfall?

Often no streamflow data available at site

Analysis of other data not warranted

Cost for estimation small

Important for nation flood prevention

Need best possible design methods

Methods widely accepted for urban drainage design

Analysis of Rainfall Data

Predicting Runoff from Rainfall

Require Statistical Rainfall Distribution

Flood Frequency Analysis

Discharge vs Frequency Only

Rainfall Frequency Analysis

Duration Also Important
Short Duration High Average Intensity
Long Duration Low Average Intensity

Definition of Failure

Hydraulic Structures are Designed for a Specific Frequency of

Exceedence

Risk Based Approach

Failure Occurs when a Larger Event Occurs

NOT Collapse or Destruction of Structure
Should Consider Structural Failure as Part of Design Process

Failure !!!!!!
Building Vs Drainage System

Risk and Failure

Level of Acceptable Risk

Depends on Service Level Expected by Community

Minor Structures
Small Cost for Failure ($ and Life)
Frequent Failure Acceptable
eg: Kerb and Gutter Flooding Once every Year

Major Structures
Large Cost for Failure ($ and Life)
Infrequent Failure Acceptable
eg: Flooding of House Once every 100 Years

Risk and Failure acceptable?

Risk and Failure acceptable?

Designing for Failure

Design for a Reduction of the Effects of Surcharging

Provide for Passage of Floods that Exceed the Design
Flood
Minimum Social, Physical and Environmental Damage

eg: Smart Tunnel, Storage pond.

Smart Tunnel KL

Smart Tunnel KL

Storage Pond

Storage Pond

Probability in Flood Estimation

Flood Estimation Process

Risk Based Approach

Exceedance Probability
Probability that a Magnitude is Exceeded for Specific Flood Value

Generally Adopt Year as Time Period

Annual Exceedance Probability, AEP

The Probability that an Event Magnitude is Exceeded Once,

or More than Once in a Year

AEP = 0

Never Occurs

AEP = 1

Always Occurs

0 < AEP < 1

Often Defined as a Percentage

Average Recurrence Interval, ARI

The Average Period Between Years in which an Event

Magnitude is Exceeded Once, or More than Once
Avoid Use of Return Period
Implies Specific Period of Recurrence
Average Implies Statistical Estimate
An Average Based on Many Observations

ARI = 1/AEP

Hydrological Data

Rainfall
Daily Volumes (mm/day)
Instantaneous Intensity (mm/hr)
Hyetograph (Intensity vs Time)

Evaporation

Stream Flow Data

Time Period Depends on Use
Daily or Monthly Volumes for Water Resource Management

Stream Gauging / Rating Curve

Reliability of Data

Accuracy May be an Issue

Failure of Automatic Equipment etc

Extrapolation of Rating Curves

50% of NSW Gauging Stations are Gauged for Floods that are

Less than 20% of the Maximum Recorded Event

Reliability of Extreme Event Prediction

Selection of Design Flood

Risk Based Approach

Urban Drainage Systems

Major and Minor Drainage System
Minor System
High Design AEP (1 to 5 year ARI)
Low Cost
Includes Underground Pipes and Some Open Channels

Major System
Low Design AEP (50 to 100 year ARI)
High Cost
Includes Major Drainage Reserves and Floodways

Selection of Design Flood

Maintenance or Low Flow

1 year ARI

Non Surcharging
1 year to 100 years ARI

Controlled Surcharge (Little to No Damage)

20 years to 200 years ARI

Surcharging with Appreciable Damage

50 years to 500 years ARI

Catastrophic Failure- a sudden and total failure of a system where recovery is impossible

ARI > > 100 years

Flood Frequency Analysis

Statistical Analysis of Observed Floods

Determine AEP vs Flood Magnitude

A Valid Analysis of the Data

Data Should Constitute a Random Sample of Independent Values

from Homogeneous Population.

Different Events Due to Same Weather Pattern

Extract Discrete Values (Continuous Record)

Maximum Event Runoff (m3/s)

Fit Distribution
No Theoretically Correct Distribution

Flood Frequency Analysis

Partial Series Analysis

Analyse All Floods Whose Magnitude Exceeds a Defined Value
Should Have At Least as Many Floods as Years of Record
Must be Independent Events

Annual Series Analysis

Analyse Maximum Discharge in Each Year of Record
Must be Independent Events

Rainfall IFD Data

Use with Rational Method

Converts Rainfall Frequency to Flood Frequency

Define Frequency of Event

ARI or AEP

Need to Know Appropriate Rainfall Duration

Depends on Catchment Size

Runoff Coefficient
Based on Catchment Characteristics

Intensity Duration Frequency (IFD) Curves

Values can be read-off from the curve to obtain rainfall

intensity (rate) for different durations and return period
Determine rainfall intensity in Australia

Reference for Australian Practice

Australian Rainfall and Runoff, (1987)

Republished in 2000.
Engineers Australia (Various Authors)
Chapter 5, (Book 4)
Pages 95 to 99 and Pages 103 to 104

IFD Generation Procedure

Select Standard Parameters from Maps

Data Derived from Statistical Analysis
Isopleth Curves Covering Australia

Substitute Parameters Into Standard Equations

AUSIFD Software
MS Windows Based Software

Generate Rainfall Intensity versus Duration for Specific ARIs

1 year to 100 years ARI

Standard Parameters

Maps 1 to 6

1 hr Duration, 2 year ARI Intensity, I1h,2y

12 hr Duration, 2 year ARI Intensity, I12h,2y
72 hr Duration, 2 year ARI Intensity, I72h,2y
1 hr Duration, 50 year ARI Intensity, I1h,50y
12 hr Duration, 50 year ARI Intensity, I12h,50y
72 hr Duration, 50 year ARI Intensity, I72h,50y

Map 7
Average Regional Skewness, G

Map 8
Geographic Factor, F2

Map 9
Geographic Factor, F50

Definitions

IDF Intensity duration frequency

ARI Average recurrence interval

YiD - Log-normal rainfall intensity for ARI of years (Y) and

duration (D)
YID Log Pearson Type 3 (LP3) rainfall intensity for ARI of
years (Y) and duration (D)

Basic durations 6 min, 1, 12 and 72 hours

Basic ARIs 2 and 50 years

Determination of IDF curve should begin with basic

durations and ARIs.
Other durations and ARIs (standard) can then obtain
Best demonstrated though an example of an area such as
Melbourne

Melbourne Example

To determine intensity (mm/hr ) for the following storms in

Melbourne
100 I 6m ; 1 I 2 ; 50 I 30m

Seven major steps are required

Solution:

Step 1- Read-off 6 basic values from ARR(87).

14 regions have been divided for Australia

Melbourne is on maps 1.8-6.8 (region 8)

2i 1 = 18.9mm/hr; 2i 12 = 3.81mm/hr; (38.1)

2i 72 = 1.13

mm/hr (11.3)

50i 1= 38.7 mm/hr; 50i 12 = 7.09mm/hr; (70.9)

50i 72 = 2.21 mm/hr (22.1)

N.B. 12 and 72 hr must be scaled by a
factor of 10

Step 2 obtain short duration factor for 6 minutes intensities

F2 and F50 are shown as contour lines and are read from ARR
(87) (maps 8 and 9)

F2 = 4.29; F50 = 14.95 for Melbourne

Obtain 2i 6m and 50i 6m from the following relationship:

2i 6m =

F2 (2i 1 )0.9 4.29 (18.9) 0.9 = 60.43mm/hr

50i 6m=F50(50i 1)0.6 14.95 (38.7) 0.6 =134.05 mm/hr

Step 3 Obtain skewness value (G)

To convert LN2 values (obtain from step 1) to LP3

G = 0.36 for Melbourne (obtain from Map 7c of ARR (87)

So far, 8 values of basic ARI have been obtained, and are

required to plot on the ARI interpolation/extrapolation
diagram

Step 5 Convert LN2 to LP3 value

Draw a horizontal line through G value

Read the Basic ARI and durations (through G line)

Y/D

6m

12*

72*

58.5

18.2

3.71

1.1

50

146

42

7.55

2.38

Scale
down by
10

Step 6 Read standard ARI and evaluate 1 year ARI.

Standard ARIs are 1, 2, 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 years.

ARI, 2 and 50

ARI, 5, 10, and 20 read value from plot

ARI, 1 from
1ID = 0.885x2ID / [1+0.4046 log10 (1.13x50ID / 2ID)]

(Eq - 1.1)

Summary of Melbourne ARI intensities

Y/D

6m

12*

72*

43.8

13.8

2.86

0.84

58.5

18.2

3.71

1.1

80

24.3

4.71

1.44

10

96

28.6

5.4

1.66

20

116

34

6.3

1.96

50

146

42

7.55

2.38

100

170

48.3

8.55

2.72

* scale down by 10

Obtain from
equation 1.1

Step 7 Plot all ARI values on duration interpolation

diagram (IFD curve)

Join points with straight line

Straight line can be extended to D=5min.

Read off required intensities for Melbourne

100 I 6m ; 1 I 2 ; 50 I 30m

170
mm/hr

9 mm/hr 65 mm/hr

Map 1.8 (1 hr duration- 2 yr ARI)

Map 2.8 (12 hr duration-2 yr ARI)

Map 3.8 (72 hr duration 2yr ARI)

Map 4.8 (1 hr duration- 50yr ARI)

Map 5.8 (12 hr duration- 50yr ARI)

Map 6.8 (72 hr duration-50yr ARI)

Map 8 (F2)

Map 9 (F50)

Skewness, G

Question?