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In most developing countries, such as India, there exists a large amount of hydropower potential. This is especially true in the small hydro plant capacity range of
up to 25 MW. Only a small fraction of this potential has been tapped so far, perhaps
due to higher per kilowatt installation cost as compared to large hydro. Small
hydropower sites can be classified as i run-of-river; ii canal based, and iii
dam-toe schemes, depending on their location. Dam-toe schemes need low investment and can be developed in a shorter period of time. In the present study, an
attempt has been made to estimate the cost of the low-head, dam-toe, small hydropower schemes. A methodology for cost optimization of such schemes has been
developed considering the quantities of various items for each component of the
scheme and prevailing prices. Further, to determine financial viability of the
scheme at different load factors, sensitivity analysis has also been carried out. It has
been found that low-head, dam-toe, small hydropower schemes are financially
viable. 2010 American Institute of Physics. doi:10.1063/1.3464755
I. INTRODUCTION
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed. Tel.: 91 1332 285167. FAX: 91 1332 273517. Electronic
addresses: sunilfah@iitr.ernet.in and sunilksingal@gmail.com.
1941-7012/2010/24/043109/13/$30.00
2, 043109-1
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043109-2
total capacity. Technical, economic, and environmental benefits of small hydropower make it an
important future contributor particularly in developing countries such as India, Turkey, Brazil, and
China.4 Hydropower is described as a renewable and sustainable energy resource, meeting global
energy challenges in a reasonable way. Hydropower on a small scale is one of the most cost
effective energy technologies.5,6 In India, plant capacity of up to 25 MW is considered as small
hydropower scheme. The environmental impacts of small hydropower plants are at the lowest
levels compared to other alternative resources.7,8 In India, it has been estimated that a potential of
15 000 MW exists in small hydropower range, out of which only 2045 MW has been installed so
far.9
Large potential of untapped hydroenergy is available in flowing streams, river slopes, canal
falls, drainage works, and irrigation and water supply dams. Most of these hydropower sites come
under low head range, i.e., from 3 to 20 m. Small hydropower schemes are categorized into three
types of schemes, i.e., canal based, run of river, and dam toe. Based on head, these schemes are
defined as high head, medium head, and low head schemes. Low head schemes could be canal
based, run of river, and dam toe, while high and medium head schemes are run of river and dam
based schemes. In the case of high head schemes, there are uncertainties about the geology and
hydrology. Due to these uncertainties, medium and high head schemes are considered site specific.
The low head schemes have to handle large quantities of water. Thus, the size of the civil
structures as well as the generating equipment is large. Dam toe low head schemes being planned
on the existing low height dams mainly meant for irrigation systems have established hydrology
and are free from geological and discharge uncertainties. Water availability in rivers is not the
same throughout the year and the maximum availability of water is in the rainy season, which lasts
for 34 months a year. Dams are constructed to store this seasonal water for flood mitigation,
irrigation, and drinking needs. When water flows from dam outlets under pressure, due to the
water level difference between upstream and downstream of the dam, there is a possibility of
power generation. These schemes are known as dam toe hydropower schemes.
It is difficult to estimate the realistic project cost at the preliminary stage to make an investment decision. A number of investigators tried to establish the methodology for cost estimation of
hydropower schemes based on the existing project data. In low head small hydropower plants, the
cost of the power house in civil works and the cost of the turbine in electromechanical works has
been found to be significant. Percentagewise bifurcation of the cost of various components has
been presented and technological aspects were also discussed in the study.10 Gordon11 developed
a simple methodology for checking first order cost of hydropower projects. This methodology was
based on a satisfied analysis of the cost data of 170 projects. In the feasibility stage, accurate
topographical maps, final hydrological studies, detailed geological studies, and sufficient engineering designs to define the project quantities were suggested to be available. Accuracy of estimates
at this stage is within 15%25%. Gordon11 has developed correlation of the cost of hydropower
projects with respect to head and capacity based on the data available. These correlations are
largely applicable to large hydropower schemes having medium and high heads.
Gordon and Noel12 developed a simple methodology for estimating the likely minimum cost
of small hydropower sites. The study was based on the data of 141 sites. The cost of small
hydropower sites was divided into three components: site costs, equipment cost, and engineering
administration. The relationships developed were based on the generalized conditions and the
specific and unusual circumstances were not considered. These relationships did not account for
specific physical, economic, or business environment of the sites. The methodology can be useful
to discard those sites where cost is higher than the affordable cost of alternative energy.
Literature survey reveals that a number of studies have been carried out in the area of small
hydropower. However, no study was reported so far for cost optimization of low head dam toe
small hydropower installations. Keeping this in mind, the present study was carried out to develop
a methodology for assessment of the cost of such projects.
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043109-3
A schematic of dam toe SHP scheme is shown in Fig. 1.13 In dam toe schemes, the power
house building is located at the toe of the dam and penstock is taken through the body of the dam.
Basic components of such schemes are categorized into two parts: i civil works and ii electromechanical equipment. The major components of civil works consist of intake, penstock, power
house building, and tail race channel. The electromechanical components are turbines with governing system, generator with excitation system, electrical and mechanical auxiliary, and transformer and switchyard equipment. Out of these, hydroturbines play an important role that can be
considered as the heart of a small hydropower station. The selection, type, and specification of
other equipment in the SHP station are dependent on the hydroturbine. The selection of turbine is
governed by head, discharge, capacity, speed, part load efficiency, number of units, and cavitation
characteristics. The size of turbine is defined by its runner diameter. The various turbines considered for analysis and their part load efficiency are presented in Table I.14
III. COST ANALYSIS
During the investigations, it was observed that the cost of components of civil works as well
as that of electromechanical equipment mainly depends on the installed capacity and head of the
scheme. In order to estimate the cost of various components of low head SHP scheme, correlations
for the cost as a function of installed capacity and head are developed from the determined values
of cost. Saini and Saini15 and Singal and Saini16 found that the statistical approach can be adopted
for the development of correlations by regression analysis from the determined values.
A. Civil works
For a range of capacity, head, and other related parameters considered under the present study,
cost values are determined for each component based on actual quantities of different items and
prevailing item rates. Correlations for the cost of components of civil works are developed by
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043109-4
TABLE I. Value of part load efficiency of different turbines considered for the analysis.
Efficiency at part load/discharge ratio
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
Maximum
efficiency
Serial no.
Type of turbines
Tubular semi-Kaplan
0.90
0.90
0.90
0.88
0.85
0.82
0.90
2
3
Vertical semi-Kaplan
Bulb semi-Kaplan
0.89
0.91
0.89
0.91
0.89
0.91
0.87
0.89
0.84
0.86
0.81
0.83
0.89
0.91
Tubular propeller
0.89
0.88
0.85
0.80
0.75
0.70
0.89
5
6
Vertical propeller
Bulb propeller
0.88
0.90
0.87
0.89
0.84
0.86
0.79
0.81
0.74
0.76
0.69
0.71
0.88
0.90
Tubular Kaplan
0.92
0.92
0.92
0.91
0.90
0.89
0.92
Vertical Kaplan
0.91
0.91
0.91
0.90
0.89
0.88
0.91
Bulb Kaplan
0.93
0.93
0.93
0.92
0.91
0.90
0.93
using the methodology adopted earlier by Singal and Saini.16 It is revealed from the determined
values that the cost is the strong function of capacity P and head H of a scheme. Therefore, the
functional relationship for cost per kilowatt C can be written as
1
C = fP,H.
The steps involved for the development of correlation for cost per kilowatt of intake C1 are
shown in Figs. 2 and 3. The developed correlation is represented by
2
C 1 = a 1P x1H y1 .
Along similar lines, correlations for the cost of other components of civil works such as
penstock C2, power house building C3, and tail race channel C4 are also developed, as shown
below.
C 2 = a 2P x2H y2 ,
C 3 = a 3P x3H y3 ,
3000
2800
2600
2400
2200
2000
1800
1600
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
Capacity, kW
FIG. 2. Plot of cost per kilowatt of intake with capacity.
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043109-5
17500
17000
16500
16000
15500
15000
14500
2
10
12
14
16
18
20
Head, m
C 4 = a 4P x4H y4 .
The values of the coefficients in Eqs. 2, 3, and 5 are given below. The values of the
coefficients in Eq. 4 for the cost of power house building are different, corresponding to layouts
with different types of turbines and generators, as given in Table II,
a1 = 17 940,
x1 = 0.2366,
y1 = 0.0596,
a2 = 7875,
x2 = 0.3806,
y2 = 0.3804,
a4 = 28 164,
x4 = 0.376,
y4 = 0.6240.
B. Electromechanical equipment
A similar methodology used for the development of the correlations for the cost of civil works
has been used to develop the correlations for the cost of different components of electromechanical equipment. The developed correlations for the cost per kilowatt of turbines with governing
system C5, generator with excitation system C6, electrical and mechanical auxiliary C7, and
transformer and switchyard equipment C8 as a function of head and capacity are represented as
follows:
TABLE II. Coefficients in cost correlation of power house.
Coefficients in cost correlation
Serial no.
Type of turbine
a3
x3
y3
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Tubular semi-Kaplan
Vertical semi-Kaplan
Bulb semi-Kaplan
Tubular propeller
Vertical propeller
Bulb propeller
Tubular Kaplan
Vertical Kaplan
Bulb Kaplan
92 615
83 406
76 103
91 231
89 664
72 076
97 764
88 631
79 962
0.2351
0.2353
0.2353
0.2356
0.2359
0.2355
0.2356
0.2357
0.2355
0.0585
0.0588
0.0586
0.0588
0.0591
0.0588
0.0589
0.0590
0.0588
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043109-6
TABLE III. Coefficients in cost correlation for electromechanical equipment having two generating units.
Coefficients for cost of electromechanical equipment
Turbine
Generator
Auxiliary
Serial
no.
Type of
turbine
Type of
generator
a5
x5
y5
a6
x6
y6
a7
x7
y7
Tubular
semi-Kaplan
Synchronous
63 346
0.1913
0.2171
78 661
0.1855
0.2083
40 860
0.1892
0.2118
Tubular
semi-Kaplan
Induction
63 346
0.1913
0.2171
66 268
0.1882
0.207
35 930
0.1831
0.2098
Vertical
semi-Kaplan
Synchronous
62 902
0.1835
0.2092
83 091
0.1827
0.2097
42 332
0.1859
0.2084
Vertical
semi-Kaplan
Induction
62 902
0.1835
0.2092
70 299
0.1826
0.2125
37 171
0.1848
0.2094
Bulb
semi-Kaplan
Synchronous
67 015
0.1824
0.2092
91 696
0.1893
0.2137
44 044
0.1858
0.2141
Bulb
semi-Kaplan
Induction
67 015
0.1824
0.2092
78 258
0.1833
0.2091
39 223
0.18
0.1986
Tubular
propeller
Synchronous
61 153
0.1961
0.2111
78 661
0.1855
0.2083
38 328
0.1902
0.2134
Tubular
propeller
Induction
61 153
0.1961
0.2111
66 268
0.1882
0.207
34 124
0.1897
0.2196
Vertical
propeller
Synchronous
59 264
0.1817
0.2106
83 091
0.1827
0.2097
39 665
0.1863
0.2082
10
Vertical
propeller
Induction
59 264
0.1817
0.2106
70 299
0.1826
0.2125
34 852
01865
0.212
11
Bulb
propeller
Synchronous
64 017
0.185
0.2031
91 696
0.1893
0.2137
42 641
0.1929
0.2048
12
Bulb
propeller
Induction
64 017
0.185
0.2031
78 258
0.1833
0.2091
37 513
0.1831
0.2119
13
Tubular
Kaplan
Synchronous
70 170
0.1853
0.2053
81 881
0.1858
0.2095
41 982
0.187
0.2099
14
Tubular
Kaplan
Induction
70 170
0.1853
0.2053
72 121
0.1868
0.2082
37 168
0.184
0.2156
15
Vertical
Kaplan
Synchronous
73 624
0.1872
0.2105
85 377
0.1816
0.2082
44 729
0.1924
0.2166
16
Vertical
Kaplan
Induction
73 624
0.1872
0.2105
77 693
0.184
0.2096
39 199
0.1805
0.2072
17
Bulb
Kaplan
Synchronous
75 048
0.1873
0.2086
99 401
0.1886
0.209
45 326
0.1912
0.2072
18
Bulb
Kaplan
Induction
75 048
0.1873
0.2086
85 417
0.188
0.2096
40 096
0.1847
0.2156
C 5 = a 5P x5H y5 ,
C 6 = a 6P x6H y6 ,
C 7 = a 7P x7H y7 ,
C 8 = a 8P x8H y8 .
x8 = 0.1803,
y8 = 0.2075.
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043109-7
The values of constants and exponents in Eqs. 68 are different for different types of
turbines and generators, as given in Table III.
C. Total installation cost
The total project cost includes cost of civil works, cost of electromechanical equipment, cost
of other miscellaneous items, and other indirect costs. 13% of the cost of civil works and electromechanical equipment has been considered on account of these costs.17
The total installation costs are represented as follows.
i
=C1 + C2 + C3 + C4 .
ii
iii
iv
11
=0.13Ccd+Ce&m.
12
13
Based on the correlations developed for components of dam toe SHP schemes, installation
cost has been determined for such schemes having different types of turbines and generators.
IV. COST OPTIMIZATION
Prior to 1991, small hydropower projects in India were only developed in the government
sector as government departments were the licensee to generate, transmit, and distribute electrical
energy. From 1991 onward, power generation was opened to the private sector as well and
government departments were streamlined as companies. Since then it has become the commercial
sector and repayment of investments is of prime concern; therefore, financial analysis has been
attempted to evaluate the schemes for evolving an optimum solution. In this context, financial
analysis has been carried out to evaluate various layouts. An important part of establishing financial feasibility is the anticipated borrowing cost. The cost of capital is the return expected by
potential investors and other market and economic costs. The costs are the sum of the real interest
rate that compensates the lender for surrendering the use of funds, the purchasing power, the risk
premium that compensates for expected inflation, the business and financial risk, and the marketTABLE IV. Values of parameters considered for financial analysis Refs. 1921.
Serial no.
Parameters
Value
1
2
3
4
11%
3.4%
1.5%
Rs 2.50/kW h
5
6
7
8
9
10
4%
25 yr
2 yr
77%
23%
70:30
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043109-8
80000
70000
60000
Head 3 m
50000
Head 10 m
Head 20 m
40000
30000
25000
23000
21000
19000
17000
15000
13000
11000
9000
7000
5000
3000
1000
20000
Capacity (kW)
FIG. 4. Dam toe SHP scheme with two units.
ability risk associated with low liquidity of long-term debt. A financially feasible SHP project,
where necessary funds are available to pay for it through sale of electricity generated, does not
mean that the project is the best of all the available alternatives or that the proposed execution is
appropriate. Besides, an economically feasible project cannot be financed. Also, the debt limit of
an agency or organizations jurisdiction can prohibit borrowing of additional funds to finance a
project.
Financial analysis includes cost of operation and maintenance, administration, and replacement. Each cost included in the annual cost analysis is regarded to be either a constant value for
the life of the project or treated as an equivalent uniform annual cost by using a uniform series of
annual payments reflecting the life of the project and the cost of money. If the owner finances the
project from internal funds, then the annual cost is based on a required rate of return rather than
the interest rate of the borrowed money.
The layouts of SHP schemes have been evaluated for cost optimization, considering type of
turbine, type of generator, and plant load factor. The efficiencies of different turbines and generators are different, as given in Table I, which affect the energy generation. To arrive at consistent
values for both benefits and costs so that they can be compared, the present value criterion is
FIG. 5. Comparison of the total cost per kilowatt as analyzed with the cost data collected for the existing dam toe schemes.
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043109-9
20
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
18
16
FIRR (%)
FIRR
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
.
.
.
.
.
.
d.
d.
d.
d.
d.
d. n.
n.
d.
n.
n.
n.
Sy & In Sy n & Ind & S y & In & Sy & In Sy n & In & Sy & In K Sy & In Sy n & Ind Sy n & In
&
& P P
&
P
S
S S
P T TK K & K K & BK
S
P
S
P
T
S
V
B
T
B
V B
V B
T
T
B
V
V
V
P - Propellor
S - Semikaplan
K - Kaplan
Syn. - Synchronous
FIG. 6. FIRR for dam toe scheme of 2000 kW capacity at 3 m head having different turbines and generators at different
load factors.
adopted. The present value has been determined at the time of first expenditure of the future
stream of benefits based on a fixed value of discount rate, considered as 11% in the present study.
The present value PV of the project has been computed by adopting the formula given below,18
n
PV =
i=1
CFi
Sn
,
i +
1 + d
1 + dn
14
where PV is the present value, CFi is the cash flow in year i starting with the initial investment, Sn
is the salvage value, D is the discount rate, and n is the number of years of the projects.
The financial feasibility with emphasis on internal financial rate of return has been attempted.
Financial internal rate of return FIRR is the discount rate at which the present value of benefits
becomes equal to the present value of cost, i.e., expenditure. FIRR has been determined based on
the annual expenditure and annual return from sale of electricity generated from the power plant
for 25 years after the plant is put into operation by using an iterative technique. The project having
a maximum FIRR value is the optimum. The financial parameters used for the calculation of FIRR
are given in Table IV. The procedure adopted for the computation of FIRR is discussed as follows:
i
ii
Determine the installation cost using correlations Eq. 13 for known values of head and
installed capacity.
Determine the annual energy by using the equation
E = P 8760 T g PL ,
15
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043109-10
38
36
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
34
30
28
FIRR
FIRR (%)
32
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
yn. Ind y n. Ind S yn. Ind Syn Ind Sy n Ind Sy n & Ind Sy n. Ind Sy n. Ind Sy n
Ind
K
& S S& &S S &
& S & P&
K& K &
P& P &
P & P & BP
K & K & BK &
T
S
S
T
T
T
S
V
B
V
V
T
V
B
B
T
V
V
B
P - Propellor
S - Semikaplan
K - Kaplan
Syn. - Synchronous
FIG. 7. FIRR for dam toe scheme of 10 000 kW capacities at 20 m head having different turbines and generators at
different load factors.
iii
iv
Determine the annual cost and generation cost by using Eqs. 16 and 17, considering
operation and maintenance O&M cost including insurance, depreciation, and interest on
the capital borrowed based on the values of these parameters as given in Table IV.
Annual cost, Ca = Co&m + Cd + Ci ,
16
17
where Co&m is the operation and maintenance cost, Cd is the depreciation cost, Ci is the
annual interest, and E is the annual energy.
Determine FIRR values based on installation cost, annual cost, annual energy, and selling
price of electricity by an iterative technique.
V. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
In hydropower projects, there are uncertainties on account of water availability that affect the
availability of energy. Thus, there is an uncertainty in projection of the benefits from the project
and the other uncertainty factor is the cost estimation. The cost of the project depends on location,
construction period and variation in cost of materials, availability of construction equipment, and
variation in labor cost. The project cost estimates are subject to a considerable degree of variation
and fluctuation. The benefits also have a high degree of uncertainty. Therefore, projects are tested
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043109-11
TABLE V. Financial internal rate of return % at different load factors under different conditions.
Load factor
Serial no.
Conditions
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Normal condition
Installation cost increased by 10%
3.80
2.03
7.50
5.78
11.00
9.20
14.00
12.11
16.60
14.60
1.84
5.60
9.02
11.92
14.39
0.06
3.86
7.29
10.13
12.52
32.34
15.50
19.70
24.30
28.50
13.62
17.56
21.89
25.87
29.46
13.43
17.34
21.64
25.60
29.16
11.59
15.34
19.41
23.13
26.48
for sensitivity to determine the effect of changes in the levels of the most critical variables. In
order to evaluate the optimum installation, sensitivity analysis has been carried out by taking the
following into considerations:18
i
ii
iii
Considering these conditions, FIRR has been computed using the methodology discussed
earlier in Sec. IV to compare the results under different conditions.
VI. RESULT AND DISCUSSION
In the present study, low head dam toe SHP schemes having two generating units have been
considered for analysis. As discussed above, the cost for different components of low head dam
toe SHP scheme has been computed based on the actual quantities of various items and their
prevailing prices. The computed cost data were used to develop the correlations based on the
available method.15,16 The process for developing correlation has been shown in Figs. 2 and 3.
Based on the correlation developed, installation cost has been determined for different heads and
capacities, as shown in Fig. 4. In order to verify the validity of the developed correlations, a
comparison was made between cost determined by using correlation and cost data collected for
similar plants installed recently. As shown in Fig. 5, it has been found that there is a maximum
deviation of 11%. This shows the accuracy of the developed correlation. The factors responsible
for this variation can be geological/soil conditions, type of turbine, type of generator, and location
of site.
Based on the determined installation cost and parameters given in Table IV, financial analysis
has been carried out to determine the financial internal rate of return for different layouts using
different types of turbines and generators at different load factors. FIRR values for different
layouts of dam toe schemes having capacity of 2000 kW at 3 m head and 10 000 kW at 20 m head
have been considered. It is seen from Figs. 6 and 7 that at 50% load factor, a bulb turbine with a
Kaplan runner is the optimum layout having maximum FIRR, i.e., 3.80% and 15.50%, respectively. At 60%, 70%, and 80% load factors, a tubular turbine having a semi-Kaplan runner is found
to be the optimum layout with maximum FIRR values. At 90% load factor, a tubular turbine with
a propeller runner is found as the optimum layout with maximum FIRR value. To account for
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043109-12
uncertainties, sensitivity analysis has been carried out by escalating installation cost and/or reducing energy generation benefits. The determined values of FIRR under these conditions are given
in Table V. It is seen that the layouts having higher capacities and head are financially viable at all
load factors in all conditions, while layouts having smaller capacities and lower heads are financially viable at load factors more than 70% in normal conditions and at 90% in extreme
conditions.
VII. CONCLUSIONS
Financial feasibility quantifies a projects ability to obtain funds for implementation and
repayment of funds on a self-liquidating basis. In the present study, methodology to determine the
optimum layout of dam toe SHP schemes has been evolved. It has been found that at a higher load
factor, i.e., 90%, a tubular turbine with a propeller runner is the optimum layout with maximum
FIRR value. At 60%, 70%, and 80% load factors, a tubular turbine having a semi-Kaplan runner
is the optimum layout, while a bulb turbine with a Kaplan runner is the optimum layout at 50%
load factor. Sensitivity analysis shows that the layouts having higher capacities have a financial
internal rate of return values higher than the interest rate. Therefore, these sites are considered to
be financially viable at all load factors under all conditions.
Nomenclature
Coefficients
a1 a8
Annual cost, Rs
Ca
Cd
Total cost per kilowatt, Rs
Generation cost, Rs
Cg
Interest cost, Rs
Ci
Cost per kilowatt of intake, Rs
C1
C2
Cost per kilowatt of penstock, Rs
Cost per kilowatt of power house building, Rs
C3
C4
Cost per kilowatt of tailrace channel, Rs
Cost per kilowatt of turbines with governing system, Rs
C5
C6
Cost per kilowatt of generator with excitation system, Rs
Cost per kilowatt of electrical and mechanical auxiliary, Rs
C7
C8
Cost per kilowatt of transformer and switchyard equipment, Rs.
Cost per kilowatt of civil works, Rs
Ccd
Ce&m
Cost per kilowatt of electromechanical equipment, Rs
Cost per kilowatt of miscellaneous items, Rs
Cmd
Cash flow in ith year
CFi
D
Discount rate
E
Annual energy generation in kW h
g
Efficiency of generator
T
Efficiency of turbine
FIRR
Financial internal rate of return, %
H
Rated net head in meter
kW
Kilowatt
MW
Megawatt
M
Meter
N
Last year of cash flow
P
Rated output power, kW
Load factor
PL
PV
Present value
Rs
Indian rupees 1 US $ = 45 Indian Rs
Salvage value
Sn
Downloaded 22 Jul 2011 to 182.16.241.33. Redistribution subject to AIP license or copyright; see http://jrse.aip.org/about/rights_and_permissions
043109-13
SHP
Small hydropower
x1 , . . . , x8 Coefficients
y1 , . . . , y8 Coefficients
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1
2
3
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