August 17, 2015

Weekly Technical

Research Analysts
Dharmesh Shah
Nitin Kunte, CMT
Dipesh Dagha
Pabitro Mukherjee
Vinayak Parmar

dharmesh.shah@icicisecurities.com
nitin.kunte@icicisecurities.com
dipesh.dagha@icicisecurities.com
pabitro.mukherjee@icicisecurities.com
vinayak parmar@icicisecurities com
vinayak.parmar@icicisecurities.com

Current consolidation augurs well for next up move towards 8850

Benchmark indices settled marginally lower after an extremely volatile trading week amid global equity rout after China devalued its currency. The Sensex closed
at 28067, down 173 points or 0.6% while the Nifty settled at 8518, down 46 points. Broader markets underperformed benchmarks as the BSE midcap and small
cap indices
i di
ended
d d in
i red
d by
b 0.9%
0 9% and
d 2.8%,
2 8% respectively.
ti l It reflects
fl t profit
fit booking
b ki after
ft three
th
weeks
k off outperformance
t
f
The weekly price action formed a long legged Doji with larger lower shadow indicating buying support near 8300 even as consolidation continues for a fourth
week in a range of 8654 - 8300. The four week consolidation post July highs of 8654 has retraced preceding five week rally (7940-8654) only by 50% highlighting
a robust price structure. The ongoing consolidation is expected to act as the launch pad for the next up leg. Post conclusion of current healthy consolidation, we
expect the index to take out July highs of 8654 and head for 8850 in coming weeks.
Our contention of a range bound index based on lack of faster retracement
on either sides held true last week. Despite sharp declines in the first three
days of the week, the Nifty held above lower range of consolidation at 8300
despite highly volatile global equity markets

NSE Nifty Weekly Candlestick Chart

9119

Support: 8500, 8430

8844

Resistance: 8654, 8730

Since June lows of 7940, the index has not corrected for more than three to
four sessions in a row. It maintained this tendency and made a sharp u-turn
on Friday retracing four day decline by over 61.8% in a single session

8654

Corrective consolidation over the last four weeks is seen as a higher base
building process, which has also helped markets to work off the highly
overbought conditions developed after the 9% rally (7940 to 8654)
Another significant observation is that last weeks correction (284 points)
was lower in magnitude compared to preceding one (333 points) which
describes contracting price action and inherent strength. Going forward,
y off last weeks lows of 8338 extending
g beyond
y
8638 ((making
g it
current rally
bigger than the preceding one (8321-8621=300 points)) will conclude end of
contraction since last one month and break out from consolidation since
May 2015 opening upsides towards 8850 levels

7961

52 week EMA

7997

7940
Short term support shifted
Sh
hif d
upwards to 8300

The confluence of 80% retracement of the entire correction from March to

June 2015 (9119 to 7940) near 8850 makes this a key short-term hurdle for
the index, going forward
F
From a short-term
h tt
perspective,
ti
we believe
b li
th base
the
b
f the
for
th index
i d has
h shifted
hift d
upwards to the 8300 region, which is the confluence of the 50% retracement
of the entire up move from June 2015 bottom of 7940 to July 2015 high of
8654 at 8300, the rising 200 day EMA currently placed at 8285 and lows of
past six weeks placed at 8315

Weekly RSI sustained above its 9 period average despite

recent cool off highlighting the underlying strength

Among oscillators, the weekly RSI is seen consolidating in positive territory

in a narrow band of 50-55 readings indicating range bound markets
Sectors of the week: We expect auto, capital goods and IT space to
outperform in the coming week, while metal continues to underperform

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

Bank Nifty (18791): Bias remains positive above 18000 mark

Deal Team At Your Service

CNX Bank Nifty Weekly Candlestick Chart

20934
Bank
Nifty
continued
its
consolidation above 18000 levels

Bank Nifty futures ended marginally lower after a volatile trading week.
Near month futures settled at 18791, down 188 points or 0.99% week on
week
The weekly price action formed a long legged Doji with a longer lower
shadow indicating buying support near 18000. Going forward, the bias
remains positive above 18000

19280

The index is seen trading in a range of 18000-19200 over past four weeks
as it
i retraced
d a five
fi weekk rally
ll by
b just
j
50% From
50%.
F
a structurall perspective
i
this consolidation is seen constructive. A faster retracement above 19200
would signal end of consolidation and resumption of up trend
The index held 18000 despite volatile global market conditions and made a
sharp u turn on Friday. It retraced four days of decline by over 61.8% in a
single day. It needs to break decisively above 19200 to reignite bullish
momentum. Such a break-out would create room for a further upward
p
move in the coming months.

50%

17138

After ongoing consolidation, we expect the index to resume its rising

trajectory and gradually head towards 20000 over the coming few months.
The 80% retracement of the March-June decline from 20740 to 17138 is
around 20000. This also coincides with the overhead trend line joining the
highs of January 2015 (20934) and March (20740) placed around 20000
levels

52 week EMA

Among oscillators, the 14 week RSI took support at its nine period average
during recent decline and has rebounded from thereon highlighting
underlying strength in the trend and indicates continuation of the upward
momentum in the coming weeks.

RSI took support at is 9 period average

highlighting underlying strength in the trend

The key barriers for Bank Nifty May future in the coming week are placed
at 19050,
19050 19300 whereas 18200,
18200 17950 are key supports

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

Trend Scanner

Deal Team At Your Service

Positive Trends

Candlestick Pattern

Scrip Name

Close

100 days EMA

Delivery % 5 days Averge

Bullish Candlestick Formations

Bearish Candlestick Formations

165.0

166.0

41.00

Scrip Name

1,301.8

1,230.0

1,163.0

38.00

JB Chemical

Engulfing Bull

263.8

BPCL

Engulfing Bear

873.8

2,703.2

2,560.0

2,556.0

71.00

Sonata Software

Engulfing Bull

160.6

Cox & Kings

Evening Star

259.0

2,183.0

1,938.0

1,872.0

43.00

Reliance Inds

Hammer

967.0

Hindalco

Continuous

93.2

20 600 0
20,600.0

19 629 0
19,629.0

18 516 0
18,516.0

37 00
37.00

Divis Lab

Continuous

2183.0

Just Dial

Continuous

1018.9

Infosys

Continuous

1149.3

Tata Steel

Continuous

237.6

PNB

Continuous

166.3

UBL

Continuous

961.8

Voltas

Hammer

315.3

TCS

Continuous

Bank of Baroda

184.4

Strides Arcolab
TCS
Divis Lab
Eicher Motors

50 days EMA

Negative Trends
Scrip Name

Close

Just Dial

1,018.9

Hindalco

93 2
93.2

50 days EMA

100 days EMA

Delivery % 5 days Averge

1,112.1

1,168.0

36.00

110 0
110.0

119 0
119.0

35 00
35.00

Pattern name

LTP

Scrip Name

Pattern name

LTP

2703.2

Legend
Positive and Negative Trends:
The stocks listed in the positive and negative trends section above have been identified after running multiple technical queries based on combination of
various technical parameters applied on a group of NSE cash stocks. The query modules are designed to recognise stocks, which are either at attractive
technical entry levels based on overall price structure or resolving out of medium term consolidation. Consequently the query modules are also aimed at
identifying the stocks which are under performers or in established down trends and therefore may not be good bets from short to medium term perspective.
Candlestick patterns:
Candlestick formations on weekly time interval charts typically point towards the prevailing sentiment comprising the entire trading week and could prove as
an important tool for short term traders. By themselves, the patterns do not carry any price target but only an indication of change in market behaviour. More
importance needs to be given to the placement of the pattern within larger trend. A more detailed description of Candlestick patterns and the way to
understand them is listed at the end of the report

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

Market Activity
Domestic Sectoral Indices Performance

Gl b l Markets
Global
M k ts
China

3,965.3
5.9%

US

2,091.5
0.7%

Japan

20,519.5
-1.0%

Brazil

47,508.4
-2.2%

Hong Kong

23,991.0
-2.3%

UK

6,550.7
-2.5%

France

4,956.5
-3.8%

Germany

10,985.1
-4.4%

Global Currencies, Commodities & Bond Yields

0.4%
7.75
-6.5 bps
0.66
-0.1 bps

Silver (ounce)

US 10 Year
JPY 10 Year

11.0
2.3
7.7
9.2
-22.3
2.1
-2.0
-14.1
2.6
7.2
6.4

-0.5%
5,157.25

Nifty Gainers / Losers for the week (%)

-0.1%

5.9

15.3

4.50

2.8%

5.8

5.4

4.9
-9.3

-9.7

-15.0

-17.2

VEDL

48.60

Copper (tonne)

1.4
-2.9
3.9
4.4
-11.2
-4.8
-3.9
-4.3
-0.6
-0.7
-2.2

HINDALCO

2.1%

0.98

-1.3
-2.7
3.1
4.1
-10.0
-4.6
-2.5
-0.6
-1.1
-0.9
-2.8

TATAMOTORS

EURO 10 Year

1,116.60

1.0%

11264.44
7923.25
18058.72
11621.55
7806.25
9507.63
2012.31
1429.03
11236.11
11453.78
11766.78

TATASTEEL

India 10 year

0.0%

Swiss Franc

1.56

Cons durables
FMCG
Healthcare
IT
Metal
Oil & gas
Power
Realty
BSE 500
BSE midcap
BSE small cap

-3.50

2.19

-11.50

1 bps

-19.50

0.39
-1.4 bps

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

INFY

Brent Crude/barrel

1.2%
124.35

British Pound

-1.0%

3M
1.1
1.5
1.1
0.4
91
9.1

SUNPHARMA

Gold/ounce

1.11

96 66
96.66

1M
-2.0
-2.1
-0.5
-3.0
-22.55

LUPIN

Japanese Yen

-1.9%

Dollar Index

1Wk
-0.6
-0.5
-1.5
-1.0
-22.44

TCS

Euro

65 01
65.01

Current
28067.31
8518.55
19461.68
21488.24
17955 01
17955.01

% Change

Rupee (|)

INDICES
Sensex
Nifty
Auto
Banking
Capital goods

Market Activity
Deal Team At Your Service
Institutional flow trends of last 12 months
Series2

Series1

30000

Series3

9244

5442

-1175 217

5319

10326

28000
27000

-3344

-5768 4177

12078

29000

117211

3940

4309

880
12919

-1172

-1000

11476

5103

4000

5940

4172

9000

2132 7037

14000

13753

1677

19000

Aug'15

July'15

June'15

May'15

Apr'15

Mar'15

Feb'15

Jan'15

Dec'14

Oct'14

Nov'14

25000

Sep'14

6000
-6000

Weekly market breadth trends

Advance %

Decline %

Sensex

80%
60%

27316

27812

28093

28463

27661

28112

28115

28236

28067

44%
%
56%
%

10-Jul-15

56%
%
44%
%

3-Jul-15

%
54%
46%
%

26-Jun-15

51%
%
49%

19-Jun-15

57%
43%

%
54%
%
46%

0%

55%
45%

20%

53%
%
47%

40%

58%
42%

Perccentage

26000

17-Jul-15

24-Jul-15

31-Jul-15

7-Aug-15

14-Aug-15

Week Ended

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

29500
28000
26500
25000
23500

Team near
AtDecember
Your Service
Dow Jones (17477): Index Deal
taking support
2014 and February 2015 Lows
The DJIA ended up 0.6% after an extremely volatile
trading week. The index recovered after mid-week
decline as China devalued its currency resulted in a
sharp sell off in global equity. DJIA ended at 17477,
up by 104 points or 0.6% for the week
The weekly price formed a High wave candle with a
small
ll reall body
b d and
d a long
l
shadows
h d
i either
in
ith
direction indicating intra week volatility. The index
during the week bounced back taking support near
the lows of December 2014 and February 2015
placed near 17000 levels

Dow Jones Industrials

Weekly Bar Chart

17037

16588

The DJIA for the last eight months is seen

g in the broad range
g of 17000-18300
consolidating
levels. A decisive breach of the range will indicate
weaken the price structure in the short term. Long
term uptrend remain intact as the index continues
to form higher high and high low in long term charts
and continue to trade in a rising channel as can be
seen in the adjacent chart
The index has witnessed consistent buying support
near ~ 17000 over the past eight months. Key
support is marked by confluence of the lower band
of rising trend channel and 100-week EMA (16910).
The Index sustaining above 17000 levels bias
remain positive and current consolidation is seen as
a base formation for the next up move

18351

Index is seen trading in the broad range of 1700018300 for the last eight months. The Index sustaining
above 17000 levels bias remain positive and current
consolidation is seen as a base formation

15855

100 Weeks EMA

RSI is seen trending down and is placed at its support

zone of 40-45 reading

12472

A
Among oscillators,
ill
the
h weekly
kl RSI is
i seen sustaining
i i
above the bull market support level of 40 and urges
well for the uptrend
For the coming week, the DJIA has support at
17300, 17125 while resistance is placed at 17630,
17780

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

Deal
TeaminaAt
Your Service
German Dax (10985): Index
trending
downward
sloping channel
The German equity ended sharply lower after
Chinas move to devalue the currency triggered
fears of a currency war and a resultant sell off in
equities across the globe. The Dax closed the week
at 10985, down by 505 points or 4.4% for the week
The price action for the week formed a bearish
Engulfing candle at the upper band of the falling
channel indicating corrective bias in the short-term.
In the process, the index breached its immediate
support area near 11000 indicating extended profit
booking towards 10500 levels

German Dax
Weekly Candlestick Chart

12390

The index formed a bearish engulfing candle at the upper

band of the falling channel indicating indicating
extended profit booking towards 10500 levels

We expect the current decline to hold this support

levels of 10500 and result in a base formation for
the next leg of the rally to pan out. Key support of
10500 is marked by the confluence of following
technical parameters:

11802

10653

61.8% retracement at 10540 of preceding

rally(9383-12390)

52 Weeks EMA
9383

Bullish gap of 23rd January 2015 placed at

10502 10434
10502-10434
We expect the index to resolve higher after a base
formation near 10500 mark and head towards 11800
being the high of July 2015

Weekly 14 periods RSI has breached its recent trading range

indicates corrective bias in the coming sessions

Among momentum oscillators, the 14-week RSI has

breached its recent trading range indicates
corrective bias in the coming sessions
For the coming week, the Dax has support at 10800,
10650 while resistance is placed at 11280, 11400

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

Team
At Your
US$-INR (65.00): Rupee Deal
remains
weakbelow
64Service
The rupee slipped to lowest level since September
2013 as the dollar demand from banks and
importers and devaluation of Chinese Yuan early
this week weighed on sentiments. The domestic
currency unit closed at 63.81, up 0.5% for the week
The US$INR pair resolved above 14 weeks trading
range (64.30-63.30)
(64 30 63 30) early during the week after
China devalued its currency triggering fears of
currency war. Rupee continued to slide for seven
successive sessions to test intra week lows of 65.34

US$INR

The Rupee remains under pressure below 64 and

expected to head towards 66.50

Weekly Bar Chart

68.8450

Equality @
66.50

Gap @ 65.2450 - 64.5250

The channelled up trend for US dollar continues as

it breaks out of three month consolidation. Going
forward, the immediate support for US dollar is
placed at break out area of 64 levels

63.7600

As detailed earlier, medium-term bias for the US

dollar remains positive as long as lower band of the
channel placed at 63 is held
61.0700

US dollar has hit our target of 65 levels in last week.

After sharp declines rupee may enter some
b
breather.
h
H
However,
we expect rupee to head
h d
towards 66.50 levels in the medium term being
confluence of higher band of rising channel and
equality of current up leg with preceding rally

58.3350

Among oscillators, the 14 week RSI is seen

resuming up trend supporting strength for US dollar
For the coming week,
week the US$INR support is placed
at 64.50, 64.20 whereas resistances are placed at
65.30, 65.80

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

Dealfirmly
Team
At
Your
Service
Gold ($1116): Trend remains
down
below
$ 1160
Gold prices snapped seven weeks of decline after
Chinese yuan depreciation raised doubts about the
pace of expected interest rates hikes by US Federal
Reserve. Gold settled at three week highs despite
retreating off weekly high on Thursday
The weekly price action formed a sizeable bull
candle with higher high and higher lows in response
to last two weeks Doji candles. It signals a pullback
after seven weeks of decline led prices to over sold
territory

GOLD

Gold prices posed pull back after seven week decline.

Overall trend remains firmly down below $ 1160

Weekly Bar Chart

1434
1392

The bullion witnessed a pull back after seven weeks

of decline which is seen as counter trend corrective.
However, the overall trend remains weak. We
believe any pullbacks from current oversold state
will be short-lived and would not last beyond
$1160. We believe the recent break down area and
multiple lows formed in 2014-15 around $1140 will
reverse its role and act as resistance
As highlighted in the earlier edition, the violation of
yearly low of 2014 has signalled a weakening price
structure and has the portents of further downslide
over the coming months. Structurally, the last two
major falling segments in 2013 and 2014 measured
average $257 points. We expect the current fall
from January 2015 high of $1307 to equal the
magnitude of the 2013 and 2014 falling segments
thereby
yp
projecting
j
g downsides towards $1050 levels
over the coming months

1307

$253 fall

1181
$262 fall

2014 low
@ 1130

The 14 week RSI seen bouncing off oversold readings, however overall trend remains down

Among oscillators, the 14 week RSI remains in

downward trajectory after registering a breakdown
below its long term rising trendline connecting
major troughs of 2013 and 2014 indicating
continued downward bias

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

10

Deal Team
At
Your
Service
Brent Crude ($49.5): Consolidation
likely
after
seven
week decline
Brent crude snapped six weeks of losing streak
amid US dollar weakness. For the week, crude oil
ended 2% positive

Brent Crude Weekly Bar Chart

The crude prices may attempt a pull back after steep declines,
however short term trend remains down

The weekly price action formed a Harami candle as

prices traded within prior weeks high-low range ($
52-48.5) indicating indecision after steep declines
As detailed in earlier edition, the decisive break and
close below the previous higher bottom of $52.50 is
indicative of weakening price structure and opens
the door for a retest of the January 2015 bottom of
$45 levels in the current months
After already correcting over 30% from June highs
of $69,
$69 prices may witness some range bound
consolidation owing to oversold state of short term
indicators. However, the overall trend remains
weak. We believe the short-term upsides will remain
capped till 60 levels being the recent gap down area
and 50% retracement of the decline from $69 to
$48.24 levels

69
63

Among oscillators,
ill
the
h weekly
kl MACD (E-12/26/9)
(E 12/26/9)
A
has generated a bearish crossover below its nine
period average signalling a weakening trend and
indicates continuation of downward momentum in
the near term

52.5
45

Bearish crossover on weekly MACD highlights the weakening structure

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

11

Previous Weeks Performance

Deal Team At Your Service

Date
17-Jul

Scrip
p
Strides Arcolab

Product
Cash

Strategy
gy
Buy

RP
1310.00

Target
g
1550.00

SL
1160.00

Gain/Loss % Comment
Open

Nifty Stocks Pivot points for the Week (August 17 21,

21 2015)
COMPANY

CMP

PIVOT

S1

S2

R1

R2

NIFTY

8518.55

8492.68

8363.82

8209.08

8647.42

8776.28

SENSEX

28067.31

27988.11

27558.63

27049.95

28496.79

28926.27

ACC

1372.05

1378.68

1348.42

1324.78

1402.32

1432.58

AMBUJACEM

226 30
226.30

220 57
220.57

210 73
210.73

195 17
195.17

236 13
236.13

245 97
245.97

ASIANPAINT

895.25

891.28

866.32

837.38

920.22

945.18

AXISBANK

570.00

569.85

555.00

540.00

584.85

599.70

BAJAJ-AUTO

2558.60

2518.08

2462.52

2366.43

2614.17

2669.73

BANKBARODA

184.40

182.15

177.60

170.80

188.95

193.50

BHARTIARTL

395.10

395.90

376.35

357.60

414.65

434.20

BHEL

261 50
261.50

262 90
262.90

251 00
251.00

240 50
240.50

273 40
273.40

285 30
285.30

BOSCHLTD

25387.35

25619.07

24518.18

23649.02

26488.23

27589.12

BPCL

873.75

903.70

827.85

781.95

949.60

1025.45

CAIRN

155.70

157.20

146.10

136.50

166.80

177.90

CIPLA

739.60

722.20

714.15

688.70

747.65

755.70

COALINDIA

377.55

385.93

353.82

330.08

409.67

441.78

DRREDDY

4257 75
4257.75

4253 67
4253.67

4189 03
4189.03

4120 32
4120.32

4322 38
4322.38

4387 02
4387.02

GAIL

337.15

336.82

327.33

317.52

346.63

356.12

GRASIM

3703.75

3704.67

3573.08

3442.42

3835.33

3966.92

HCLTECH

973.70

964.23

939.57

905.43

998.37

1023.03

HDFC

1299.95

1294.48

1255.57

1211.18

1338.87

1377.78

HDFCBANK

1101.80

1091.45

1076.95

1052.10

1116.30

1130.80

Source: NSE India, ICICIdirect.com Research

12

Nifty Stocks Pivot points for the Week (August 17 - 21, 2015)
COMPANY
HEROMOTOCO

CMP

PIVOT

S1

S2

R1

R2

2712.45

2687.18

2644.47

2576.48

2755.17

2797.88

HINDALCO

93.15

98.13

84.52

75.88

106.77

120.38

HINDUNILVR

870.55

876.52

844.03

817.52

903.03

935.52

ICICIBANK

302.60

302.23

290.47

278.33

314.37

326.13

IDEA

161.25

161.63

155.27

149.28

167.62

173.98

INDUSINDBK

959.00

941.08

924.17

889.33

975.92

992.83

INFY

1149.25

1123.88

1080.92

1012.58

1192.22

1235.18

ITC

318.15

316.13

305.02

291.88

329.27

340.38

KOTAKBANK

717.70

705.58

694.67

671.63

728.62

739.53

LT

1799.50

1797.23

1750.27

1701.03

1846.47

1893.43

LUPIN

1793.45

1749.23

1724.67

1655.88

1818.02

1842.58

M&M

1378.15

1356.03

1317.12

1256.08

1417.07

1455.98

MARUTI

4572 50
4572.50

4507 50
4507.50

4481 00
4481.00

4389 50
4389.50

4599 00
4599.00

4625 50
4625.50

NMDC

97.25

98.75

92.50

87.75

103.50

109.75

NTPC

129.65

130.28

125.97

122.28

133.97

138.28

ONGC

270.40

273.57

262.43

254.47

281.53

292.67

PNB

166.25

160.00

157.70

149.15

168.55

170.85

POWERGRID

138.35

135.28

129.07

119.78

144.57

150.78

RELIANCE

966.95

961.72

934.63

902.32

994.03

1021.12

SBIN

268.50

271.00

252.55

236.60

286.95

305.40

SUNPHARMA

897.70

872.23

856.47

815.23

913.47

929.23

TATAMOTORS

355.25

365.22

335.13

315.02

385.33

415.42

TATAPOWER

69.70

69.23

67.72

65.73

71.22

72.73

TATASTEEL

237.60

243.87

222.73

207.87

258.73

279.87
2785.00

TCS

2703.20

2643.10

2602.20

2501.20

2744.10

TECHM

555.05

549.80

532.10

509.15

572.75

590.45

ULTRACEMCO

3103.90

3121.07

3013.28

2922.67

3211.68

3319.47

VEDL

107.10

112.48

93.87

80.63

125.72

144.33

WIPRO

575.25

570.53

559.77

544.28

586.02

596.78

YESBANK

796.80

796.10

757.90

719.00

835.00

873.20

ZEEL

419.80

412.18

405.62

391.43

426.37

432.93

Source: NSE India, ICICIdirect.com Research

13

Forthcoming Economic Events Calendar

Deal Team At Your Service

Date

Event

US

17-Aug
17-Aug
18-Aug
18-Aug
18-Aug
g
19-Aug
19-Aug
19-Aug
20-Aug
20-Aug
20-Aug
20-Aug
20-Aug

Empire Manufacturing
NAHB Housing Market Index
Net Long-term TIC Flows
Total Net TIC Flows
Housing Starts
CPI MoM
CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM
U.S. Fed Releases Minutes from July 28-29 FOMC Meeting
Initial Jobless Claims/Continuing claims
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort
Bloomberg Economic Expectations
Existing Home Sales
Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook

India

25-Aug
31-Aug
31-Aug

Eight Infrastructure Industries

Fiscal Deficit INR Crore
GDP YoY

China

18-Aug
20-Aug

China July Property Prices

MNI August Business Indicator

UK

17-Aug
18-Aug
18-Aug
19-Aug
19-Aug
20-Aug
21-Aug
21-Aug

Rightmove House Prices MoM/YoY

CPI MoM/YoY
RPI MoM/YoY
CBI Trends Total Orders
CBI Trends Selling Prices
Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel MoM/YoY
Public Finances (PSNCR)
Central Government NCR

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

14

Notes

Deal Team At Your Service

Please
Pl
execute the
h recommendation
d i within
i hi the
h prescribed
ib d range provided
id d in
i the
h report
Once the recommendation is executed, it is advisable to keep strict stop loss as provided in the report on closing basis
We adapt a trading strategy of booking 50% profit when the position is in profit by 3-5% and trail stoploss on remaining position to the
entry point
In recommendations where it is advised to buy on declines, if the target price is hit before activation of the call in prescribed range then the
recommendation is considered not initiated
The recommendations are valid only for the week and are to be squared off by the end of the week. In case we intend to carry forward the
position, it will be communicated through separate mail
Trading Portfolio allocation
It is recommended to spread out the trading corpus in a proportionate manner between the various technical research products
Please avoid allocating the entire trading corpus to a single stock or a single product segment
Within
Withi each
h product
d t segmentt it is
i advisable
d i bl to
t allocate
ll
t equall amountt to
t each
h recommendation
d ti
For example: The Daily Calls product carries 3 to 4 intraday recommendations. It is advisable to allocate equal amount to each
recommendation

15

Recommended Product wise Trading Portfolio allocation

Deal Team At Your Service

16

Candlesticks Glossary:

Deal Team At Your Service

Candlestick patterns describe the market sentiment for the specified period.
period Some of the formations suggest reversal of sentiment (trend) and,
and therefore,
therefore are
important for a chart reader. By themselves, the patterns do not carry any price target but only an indication of change in market behaviour. More importance
needs to be given to the placement of the pattern within larger trend
Morning Star: Potential bottom reversal pattern made of three candle lines. The first sizeable black candle reflects a market in which the bears are in complete
charge. The next candle line--the small real body--shows a slight diminution of the bearish force. The white candle that makes up the last part of the morning
star visually displays the bulls are gaining the upper hand. Lowest low amongst three candles becomes technical support
Bullish Engulfing Line: A potential bottom reversal pattern.
pattern This pattern typically appears at the culmination of a decline or downtrend.
downtrend The market falls,
falls and a
black candle forms (ideally a small black candle). Next, a white real body wraps around the prior sessions black body. Low of the pattern becomes short term
support for prices
Piercing Line: Potential bottom reversal pattern. A black body forms in the downtrend. The market continues moving south on the next sessions open but that
session culminates in a white real body that closes (e.g. pierces) than half way or more into the prior black body. Lowest low between two candles is referred to
as technical support for prices
Hammer: A candlestick line which,
which during a downtrend,
downtrend has a very long lower shadow and small real body (black or white) at the top end of the session
sessionss
range. There should be no, or a very small, upper shadow. Pattern suggests buying support during declines and needs confirmation in terms of sustainability of
prices above head of the Hammer in following session
Evening Star: Potential Top reversal pattern made of three candle lines. Comparable with a traffic signal. First white candle reflects a market in bullish trend.
The next candle line--the small real bodywarns waning momentum. The black candle that completes the evening star visually exhibits that prior up trend has
stopped or reversed
Bearish Engulfing Line: Potential top reversal signal.
signal This two candlestick pattern emerges during a rally.
rally A black candle real body wraps around a white real
body (classically a small white candle) Highest high between two candles becomes resistance level for prices for future reference
Dark Cloud cover: A dark cloud cover forms a top reversal pattern. The first session should be a strong, white real body. The second sessions price opens over
the prior sessions high (or above the prior sessions close). By the end of the second session, it closes near the low of the session and should fall well into the
prior sessions white body. Pattern suggests that market has a poor chance of rising immediately
Shooting Star: A single candlestick line during a rally in which there is a small real body (white or black) at the bottom end of the session's range and a very
long upper shadow. The candle line should also have little or no lower shadow. Pattern suggest the trouble for prices overhead
Continuation Patterns: Other than widely known Candlestick reversal patterns discussed above, there are numerous patterns mentioned in literature on
Candlestick which describe the continuation of existing sentiments i.e. bullish or bearish. We have refrained from mentioning names of these patterns to avoid
confusion. However, the remark Continuation Pattern refers to bullish or bearish candlestick patterns which suggest continuation of existing trend

17

Pankaj Pandey

Head Research
ICICIdirect.com Research Desk,
ICICI Securities Limited,
1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,
Road No 7, MIDC
Andheri (East)
Mumbai 400 093
research@icicidirect.com

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

Disclaimer

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Shah Dipesh Dagha,
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Mukherjee Vinayak Parmar Research Analysts
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