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Abstract
Global warming has received much attention, but evidence from the past shows that sudden global cooling has occurred with
severe failures of agriculture. Extrapolating from dendrochronological evidence, one can predict the following: Approximately
once per century there will be a drop of about 0.51 C in mean temperature worldwide. In some of these cases, perhaps once
every 200 or 300 years this might endanger agricultural production globally. About once per millenium there will be periods of
520 years where the temperature is seriously below normal. The last major one year temperature drop was 1816, the year without a summer, probably caused by the cooling effect of the eruption of the volcano Tambora, Indonesia. The last decade-long
cooling event was a.d. 536545 where dust veil, cold, famine, and plague was recorded in Byzantium and China. Very large
volcanic eruptions or a comet/asteroid impact have been suggested as cause. Nuclear winter after large-scale nuclear war is a
well-known scenario, but climate instabilities may also be caused by changes in the sun, Milankovitch cycles, changes in ocean
currents, volcanoes, asteroid impacts, dusting from comets passing close, methane released from its hydrate, and pollution. The
risks associated with sudden global cooling are rather smaller than the risks of global warming, but they are real. A dangerous
sudden cooling event will happen sooner or later. Ability to change to cold-resistant crops rapidly in large parts of the world
may be necessary to avoid major famines. With some important exceptions, fundamental research in abrupt climate change
is in place, but agricultural or economic research on volcanic/comet-dusting/nuclear winters and their mitigation is lacking.
2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Dust veil; Dry fog; Haze; Global change; Nuclear winter; Volcanic winter
1. Unstable climate
Normally people believe that climate is quite stable. Many recognize that the recent global warming is
probably due to increases in greenhouse gases, such
as methane and carbon dioxide. Many people also recognize that there has been a little ice age from about
13501850 where Londoners skated on the Thames,
the Dutch painted vivid winter scenery from their
canals and armies crossed the straits of the Baltic sea
Tel.: +45-46-77-41-44; fax: +45-46-77-42-02.
E-mail address: kjeld.engvild@risoe.dk (K.C. Engvild).
0168-1923/03/$ see front matter 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/S0168-1923(02)00253-8
128
Table 1
The mean summer temperatures on the northern hemisphere after very large volcano eruptions, deduced from low tree ring density
Year
Mean summer
temperature fall ( C)
Volcano eruption
Volcanic explosivity
index
1453
1601
1641
1695
0.5
0.8
0.5
0.4
6
6?
6
1816
1817
0.5
0.4
1912
1991
0.4
(0.5)a
6
6
Data according to Briffa et al. (1998) and Briffa, 2000. The Volcano explosivity index goes from 0 (no change) to 7 (super colossal).
a Global mean temperature fall (McCormick et al., 1995).
129
Table 2
Decade-long episodes of very narrow tree rings and frost ring anomalies, spanning most of the northern hemisphere
Year
Volcano
536545 a.d.
4441 b.c.
208204 b.c.
11591141 b.c.
16341627 b.c.
23542345 b.c.
About 3190 b.c.
About 4370 b.c.
Data taken from Baillie (1995, 1999). Also compare LaMarche and Hirschboeck (1984), Baillie and Munro (1988), Briffa (2000).
2. Possible causes
Many causes for the temperature variations have
been proposed (Crowley, 2000; Zachos et al., 2001):
(1) changes in the solar constant, that is changes in
the energy output of the sun; (2) Milankovitch cycles,
changes in the earths orbit altering the irradiation
close to the poles; (3) changes in ocean currents
Fig. 1. The very large variations in Greenland temperature during the last ice age. Courtesy: Johnsen and Dansgaard (unpublished), compare
Dansgaard et al. (1993).
130
131
132
133
the projected doubling of the modest resources is realized. This means that we can predict asteroid/comet
impacts centuries in advance and may be able to deflect dangerous objects. Only long period comets will
remain unforeseen until a few months before impact.
The >300 short-period comets and centaurs (asteroids
in orbits between Jupiter and Neptune) may change to
earth crossing orbits after close passages to Jupiter or
Saturn. Significant orbit changes occurred more than
50 times during the last century (Kronk, 2001). The
most famous examples are the comets HaleBopp
and ShoemakerLevy 9 (Levy, 1998). Both long- and
short-period comets can dust the earth when passing
close, but the risks of short-period comets are larger,
because they return frequently and most of them move
in the same plane as the planets.
The risk of nuclear winter (Crutzen and Birks,
1982; Turco et al., 1990; Robock, 1996) has decreased
very much since the ending of the cold war. But
that situation may change very quickly, especially if
economic conditions deteriorate in any of the larger
countries with nuclear capability. Under such circumstances there are great risks that leaders with the evil
political genius of a Hitler or Stalin may emerge and
bring nuclear winter back to reality.
134
4. Possible mitigation
In general, it will be much easier to deal with the
consequences of cooling after dust veils from volcanoes or comet/asteroid impacts than after nuclear winter, because the general infrastructure and energy supply of society will remain intact.
The major risks (Smith, 2000) of global coolings are
the famines connected with crop failures. The world
cereal stock levels are about 30% of the yearly production (FAO, 2001). Difficulties in developing countries
will begin already a few months after the first crop failures. In case of a cooling event lasting more than a year
famines will also hit the developed countries (Harwell
and Cropper, 1985); in that case crop losses in the
northern hemisphere cannot be compensated with
imports from the southern hemisphere or vice versa.
A general awareness that there may be a problem
is an important beginning. For example, necessary
seed supplies of appropriate frost/cold-resistant crops
should be available. Sufficient knowledge among agricultural extension agents is necessary, and the necessary agricultural and economic research should be
in place. The warning times for the formation of volcanic dust veils are of the order of months. Asteroid
or comet dusting may happen instantaneously, if the
parent body has not been seen. With the current automated surveys (Stuart, 2001) more and more threatening objects are found and warning times may become
centuries. Warning time for nuclear war can be very
short, probably only weeks; nuclear war probabilities
wax and wane with the current political climate.
The developed countries with large meat production can to some degree extend their food resources by
slaughtering most of their animals early and change
to primarily eating plant products. This option is not
available in most of the developing countries, especially not where two or three crops are grown each
year.
The lessons of history have been that it is weather
extremes, rather than the means that result in crop
failure; frost in July had serious consequences in
USA in the year without summer 1816 (Stommel and
Stommel, 1979). In other areas of the world drought
or flooding might follow sudden global cooling.
There is a need for stress tolerant crops, and the ordinary definitions may have to be extended. It is not
enough that a wheat cultivar is cold tolerant during
winter, it must also be cold tolerant during growth, anthesis and grain filling. Finding such cultivars is difficult, perhaps impossible as frost resistance depends on
proper hardening. Probably the strongest detrimental
effects on crops will be where crops are grown under
marginal conditions, either on marginal land or under
marginal temperatures.
The change to frost/cold-resistant crops might be
fairly easy in some countries, such as growing hardy
potatoes or beets instead of cereal grain, or growing
wheat instead of maize. In some developing countries
hardy alternative crops have been known for centuries,
such as grass pea (Lathyrus sativus) in Bangladesh,
India, and China, and Cassava tubers (Manihot esculenta) in Africa and South America. Most research on
the effect of global cooling on agriculture was done
in relation to nuclear winter (Ehrlich et al., 1983;
Harwell and Cropper, 1985; Myers, 1989) and very
little has been done since then (Robock, 1996). The
large-scale research in the agricultural consequences
of global warming (Rtter and vandeGeijn, 1999) has
little relevance in the global cooling case. There is
a need to for agricultural and economic research addressing the issues of sudden global cooling and the
following famines.
Small cooling events are much more frequent than
catastrophic events. From observation of the smaller
events, we might learn what the large catastrophes
would be like. It is necessary that all possible causes
are investigated. Much of the relevant research effort
is already in place in climatology, space sciences,
volcanoes, and geology; but redirection is needed in
several areas. For example Hoyles comet dusting
hypothesis (Hoyle and Wickramasinghe, 1978; Clube
and Napier, 1990; Clube et al., 1996) needs serious
investigation. Also the dendrochronological evidence
for several decade-long coolings during the last milleniums needs confirmation and extension (Baillie and
Munro, 1988; Baillie, 1994, 1995, 1999).
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