Thayer Consultancy

Background Briefing:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

ASEANs Holy Grail the South

China Sea Code of Conduct
Carlyle A. Thayer
August 4, 2015
We request your assessment of the following issues:
Q1. What is your assessment of the possibility ASEAN and China will agree on the
Code of Conduct in the South China Sea this week?
ANSWER: ASEAN and China will not reach agreement on the Code of Conduct at this
years ASEAN meeting with China. The issue was discussed at the recent Ninth
ASEAN-China Senior Officials Meeting. Both sides approved a second list of
commonalities of what should be included in the COC. No details have been
announced. Japanese news sources are reporting that the chairmans statement to
follow the AMM (ASEAN Ministerial Meeting of Foreign Ministers) will include an
announcement that the two sides have agreed to set up a hot line to deal with South
China Sea incidents [the AMM statement took note of Indonesias proposal on ahot
line].
China insists that the COC consultations must be part of the consultations to
implement the 2002 Declaration on Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC),
and the DOC must be fully implemented before agreeing on a COC. While a number
of small working groups under the ASEAN-China Joint Working Group to Implement
the DOC are discussing how to implement cooperative activities, not one
cooperative project has been started.
ASEAN is pressing for further clarification of paragraphs 4 and 5 in the DOC about the
non-use or threat of force and self-restraint, respectively. It has not gotten
anywhere. In other words, when a Chinese Coast Guard ship rams another countrys
maritime law enforcement vessel (or fishing boat), is this an example of the use of
force? On self-restraint, the DOC states among other things parties to the DOC
should not occupy unoccupied features etc. Does among other things include
constructing artificial islands?
Concern in ASEAN about Chinas construction of artificial islands has become more
palpable and some ASEAN members are increasingly frustrated by the slow progress
on COC consultations. ASEAN will once again urge the expeditious conclusions of
talks on the COC.
Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, ASEANs Holy Grail the South China Sea
Code of Conduct, Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, August 4, 2015. All

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