In the wake of recent Southern front offensives and territory gains there is one

question that remains and that is how far can they actually go before they are
forced to stop. The Southern front maybe has massive Western and Gulf support
but they are definitely not in the best place for expansion.

First let's look at the east, we saw numerous successful Southern front military
operations in the east of Daraa governorate, they took Bosra, they took Nasib
crossing and the SAA/NDF Jordanian border salient, they took Brigade 52 and the
surrounding villages but once they were to enter Suwaida governorate and take
the Tha'lah air base they got repelled by the Druze. There was a lot of talk about
Druze being against the regime and some even went as far to suggest that there
are a lot of pro-SF Druze but all of this meant nothing because a significant part
of the Druze went to defend the air base, the SF didn't even try a bigger attack
because they knew that if they went with full force on Suwaida they would be
met with a huge Druze force and that they would just push them closer to the
SAA/NDF block. The Southern front has no hope for expanding farther to the east
and they know it, it's better to leave things as they are and leave Druze alone
instead of giving a lot of menpower to the SAA/NDF with which they could even
go into Daraa later on eventually if the Druze wanted to. A full force attack into
Suwaida governorate would be like shooting themselves in the foot for the SF.

Next on the line is the Quneitra governorate, we recently saw an offensive in the
north of the governorate towards Hadar and the western Ghouta rebel pocket,
this offensive was also unsuccessful due to the anti-rebel sentiment of the Druze
Hadar population and extensive help of the SAA/NDF, Hadar was besieged for
some time but the siege was broken and the offensive failed to achieve a bigger
territorial gain. While the offensive in the north was largely unsuccessful it's not
the only SAA/NDF position in the Quneitra governorate, the SAA/NDF managed to
keep control over Madinat al Baath, Khan Arnabah, Tal Krum and the surrounding
areas, all of which could be potential targets for an offensive, while attacking
these positions would be hard because of the terrain and the SAA/NDF
fortifications it would certainly be worth because with that they would secure
pretty much the entire Quneitra governorate and it would be easier to push
towards the Western Ghouta and to Damascus. The position of the SAA/NDF
positions in Madinaat al Baath and the surrounding areas enable the rebels to
attack from multiple directions and I see this area as the biggest possibility for an
offensive in the future.

The SF also has the option of moving towards Damascus and Western Ghouta
over Kanakir and Sasa, but I consider this as very unlikely because they have not
invested a lot into that front. The SAA/NDF launched counteroffensives in that
area, they recaptured Sasa and some surrounding areas in Western Ghouta, while
they also launched a counteroffensive against Deir al Adas and Tal al Fatimah, Tal

Sultaniyah in the north of the Daraa governorate which means that the SAA/NDF
won't allow any advances in the area without a fight, that area is also close to the
Damascus-Daraa road which is vital for the supply of all SAA/NDF troops in the
Daraa salient, and the proximity of that area to Damascus, the capital of Syria is
also important. Pushing towards Damascus without first destroying the Daraa
salient would be extremely risky for the SF.

The obvious choice for the offensive would be (and is) the Daraa salient and the
Daraa city itself. Even though the Daraa salient seems like a weak point of the
regime in Daraa it may not be so, in the recent rebel Daraa offensive we have
seen that Daraa will be nothing like Idlib, if the SF wants to go at it it has to get
more men, it has to include the Islamist groups (Jaish al Fatah) and it has to be
ready to take the blow. People who were predicting that regime troops will
collapse in Daraa like they did in Idlib didn't take a couple of things into
consideration. The first one is that the length of the salient itself, the salient that
led to Idlib and Kafraya and Fua was extremely long and narrow, while the Daraa
salient is much shorter. The second thing is that if the SAA/NDF retreated from
Daraa city to Izra it would mean losing the Daraa governorate for a very long
time, it would also be a big propaganda defeat for the regime since it would be a
yet another provincial capital lose to the rebels. The third thing is that the
strategic position of the Daraa governorate is much more important to both the
regime and their Iranian and Hezbollah allies, to the regime because of it's
proximity to Damascus and the possibility of an offensive of the SF towards
Damascus, to Iran and Hezbollah because of Quneitra and the possibility of
another front against Israel. All these reasons have resulted in the SAA/NDF
heavily reinforceing Daraa city and making a stand in it, and as we saw the SF
couldn't handle the SAA/NDF defense, they barely gained anything and suffered
massive casulties.

In the end it seems like the SF is going to have to radically change something if
they plan to take Daraa city. One of the possibilites is that they will have to work
with the Islamist groups from Jaysh al Fatah and cooperating closely with them
and that would porbably mean giving them new turf in the city, something that
the SF doesn't want because they might get too popular. The Jaysh al Fatah units
with their full units could be just the thing that is needed to push the battle into
the rebel hands, but cooperating with them would mean a political defeat for the
SF since they are not able to fight their battles themselves. The second possibility
is that the SF would just need to bring more men but I don't see a reason why
didn't they do that in the first place, the only real answer to that is that they just
don't have enough men to spare.

The other possibility for the SF is to just keep up with small scale offensives in
places like Quneitra, Northern Daraa and maybe even Suwaida (even though this

one would be risky as hell), and just forget about Daraa city for a while now until
something happens that plays into their hands. The fact is that the SF just can't
go for a push deep into Northern Daraa and Damascus governorates until they
get Daraa city, and if they couldn't defeat the SAA/NDF in the Daraa salient how
could they even hope to defeat them on a large scale in northern Daraa and
Damascus.