Ranges (Up till 11.

50am HKT)
Currency

Currency

EURUSD

1.1310-53

EURJPY

135.88-136.415

USDJPY

119.82-120.37

EURGBP

0.73025-275

GBPUSD

1.5459-1.5508

USDSGD

1.4001-74

USDCHF
AUDUSD

0.9513-46
0.7110-53

USDTHB
USDKRW

35.60-68
1181.9-1188.3

NZDUSD

0.6440-71

USDTWD

32.332-775

USDCAD

1.3266-1.3305

USDCNH

6.4715-6.4924

AUDNZD

1.1029-65

XAU

1123.7-1129.1

Key Headlines
Asian equity indices are up Happy Days! Shanghai
ended the morning positive, China Bashing bloggers
silenced.
In NY Q&A, BOJ Governor Kuroda said he has no
plans for further easing. This disappointed those early
birds and UsdJpy slipped to 119.85.
Australian data doesnt look that bad. Capex is weak
but estimates of how much to be spent, increased from
Aud104bn to Aud114.8bn.
Our trader Sam recommends sell UsdCad here (1.3275)
stop loss at 1.3355, target 1.3075-1.3100.

FX Flows
In early part, UsdJpy took out some stops above 120.10
and got to 120.26 at first. Ahead of BOJ Kurodas speech
at Japan Society in NY, Japanese bought Usd again and
brought it up to 120.37. As the BOJ Governor address
the audience, UsdJpy pared gains. Over Q&A, Kuroda
said he has no plans for further easing and UsdJpy
returned to 119-handle. Most of the buy orders are
scattered in the 118s while I hear intraday at 119.65 and
sellers 120.40-50. Again, I am reminded of stops above
120.75 and the 200-day SMA is at 120.73.
Australia third quarter capital expenditure fell 4% versus
estimates of -2.5% but an improvement from last
quarters -4.4%. Revision was weak at -4.7% and this
instigated the AudUsd move to 0.7112. However, capex
numbers werent that bad. Estimates for 2015/2016 Q3
capex expanded to Aud114.8bn vs prev. Aud104bn.
AudUsd printed high 0.7153. Renewed chatter of buying
from exporters below 0.7100 to 0.7050.
UsdCad was sold from 1.3325 to 1.3290 into the closing
minutes of New York, and we suspect it was weak stop
loss triggered. Oil is still weak but rates space telling us
UsdCad could return to 1.3200-10 area. We have
corporate bids from 1.3260s down to 30s. Offers atop
1.3350. Our trader Sam recommends sell UsdCad here
(1.3275) stop loss at 1.3355, target 1.3075-1.3100.

Unexciting day for EurUsd but I will try to make it sound

good. Late New York saw interbank trading the pair
towards 1.1300 felt like EurCad was sold because the
UsdCad went from 1.3330 to 1.3290. As Japanese picked
up UsdJpy, they took some EurJpy as well and EurUsd
went bid. Since Asia opened, EurUsd stayed above the
200-day SMA 1.1316.

Asians
Asian equity indices are up Happy Days! Shanghai
ended the morning positive, China Bashing bloggers
silenced.
In the Asian EM space, Usd is mixed this morning.
Although most pairs were largely lower, UsdMyr stood
out as pair that is defying gravity.
Some FX bloggers are linking the weak Malaysian
Ringgit to reports that red shirts are planning an
aggression against the yellow shirts Bersih 4 over the
weekends protests. I dont think thats the case. Real
money is still touted. In the positioning index, short Myr
is being reduced and suspect they will be added on
UsdMyr dips.
UsdThb unchanged this morning. Local newspapers
reported that Deputy Prime Minister Somkid
Jatusripitak will fast-track Cabinet approval for a series
of urgent fiscal measures. This should be positive for
Thailand. Interbank traders still want to long UsdThb on
dips especially with 1-month swap points eased to 20/23
from 35. Thai July custom trade numbers looked
positive, trade balance up at $770mio versus $150mio.
NY ended with UsdSgd close to 1.4067, the pair drifted
lower to 1.4001 where macro and model funds appeared
to reload long Usd positions.

Who said what

S&P: Confirms Quebec outlook stable
South Korea Finance Minister Choi: To increase
defence spending
BOJ Kuroda: Japan inflation around 0% this year
BOJ Kuroda: Crude oil drop has downward impact on
inflation
BOJ Kuroda: Abenomics has corrected excessive Jpy
appreciation
BOJ Kuroda: 2% CPI can concur with lower real
inflation
BOJ Kuroda: Central banks need rom for monetary
easing so to get 2% inflation
BOJ Kuroda: Not targeting exchange rates; not
concerned about currency war
BOJ Kuroda: Central banks are targeting price stability
BOJ Kuroda: No plans for further easing

These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.

 BOJ Kuroda: Has many options available if QQE does

not achieve 2% goal
BOJ Kuroda: Changes to be made if necessary
BOJ Kuroda: China is likely to achieve 6-7% real GDP
growth
BOJ Kuroda: Also expects 6-7% growth in China next
year
Thai DPM Somkid: To accelerate injection of cash into
villages

News
Australia Q2 Private Capital Expenditure fell 4% from
-4.4% (est. -2.5%, revised -4.7%)
Australia Q2 Building Capital Expenditure fell 5.6%
Australia Estimated 2015/2016 Capital Expenditure
for Q3 at Aud114.8bn vs prev. Aud104bn (Bloomberg est.
Aud111bn)
Thailand July Customs Exports Y/Y fell 3.56% from
-7.87%
Thailand July Customs Imports Y/Y fell 12.73% from
-0.21%
Thailand July Customs Trade Balance US$770mio
from US$150mio
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in Telegraph: China is
in a serious bind but this is not yet a 'Lehman'
moment
My own view - with low conviction, as they say in the
hedge fund world - is that China will weather this
immediate storm, though with difficulty. Fiscal spending
is growing at 13pc again. There is already enough juice in
the pipeline to flatter growth for a few more months. The
housing market is coming back from the dead. Services
are growing at a 10pc pace. Another stop-go cycle is
picking up. Each time it is weaker, but it is still enough to
delay the denouement until next year, and next year is an
epoch away in market time.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/chinabusiness/11825998/China-is-in-a-serious-bind-but-thisis-not-yet-a-Lehman-moment.html
WSJ: Inflation Dynamics With the Fed as
Ringmaster
At the Feds conferencethe theme is Inflation
Dynamicsone speaker will be the Feds vice chairman,
Stanley Fischer. Earlier this month, in an interview with
Bloomberg News, he seemed to suggest that the dollar
wasnt losing value fast enough for the Feds taste.
MarketWatch headlined the interview as suggesting that
a rate hike in September is not a done deal. The
collapse of stock markets around the world in recent
days, says USA Today, gives the Fed a new excuse not
to raise interest rates.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/inflation-dynamics-withthe-fed-as-ringmaster-1440628441?
mod=wsj_nview_latest

FT: Funds scramble to assess computer glitch

Bank of New York Mellon, whose computer systems are
used to calculate the net asset values, or NAVs, of many
funds, has been suffering problems since the start of the
week because of a failed software upgrade by one of its
suppliers. The resulting confusion could take many days
to clear up, according to people at several of the
companies affected, and it was unclear whether investors
may have ended up buying or selling funds at inaccurate
prices during the high-volume trading of the past few
days.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/bf195a58-4c3c-11e5b558-8a9722977189.html?ftcamp=published_links
%2Frss%2Fcompanies%2Ffeed%2F
%2Fproduct#axzz3jmLbou9a
WSJ: Port of Hamburg Shows Germany Is
Vulnerable on China Trade
China is by far the biggest trading partner for Hamburg,
the largest port in the worlds fourth-biggest economy.
Last year, one of every three containers in Hamburg
harbor was coming from or heading to China. This year
through June that flow dropped 11%, to 1.3 million
containers to and from China, the port authority said last
week, blaming it on Chinas economic slowdown as well
as a collapse in trade with Russia. Hamburgs worldwide volume of containers could fall more than 7% this
year, the agency said. Now economic weakness in China
and a slowdown in other emerging markets threaten to
crimp demand for German products. If Chinas woes
dent resurgent American consumptionwhich includes
strong demand for German productsGermany could
find itself exposed.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/port-of-hamburg-showsgermany-is-vulnerable-on-china-trade-1440601584?
mod=wsj_nview_latest
Telegraph: China cracks down on 'rogue' traders
after Black Monday fears come back to spook
investors
China has embarked on a criminal pursuit of rogue
banks and brokerages in a crackdown designed to stop
money fleeing the country as it struggles to stave off a
stock market collapse. Authorities are investigating five
of the country's biggest brokers and have launched a
probe against "underground banks" for financial
malpractice, which they claim has helped trigger record
levels of capital flight.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/11824478
/Black-Monday-fears-come-back-to-spook-panickedinvestors.html
SCMP: More
economic zone

reforms

called

for

Qianhai

These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.

Qianhai,
the special economic zone in Shenzhen
intended as a test bed for China's yuan liberalisation and
financial reforms, should step up efforts to unshackle
financial and trade restrictions, with cross-border
interbank yuan lending and customs integration the key
areas in need of further reforms, say business leaders.
http://www.scmp.com/business/chinabusiness/article/1852908/more-reforms-called-qianhaieconomic-zone
Xinhua News: China to step up financial leasing
to bolster economy
The State Council, China's Cabinet, on Wednesday
mapped out measures to accelerate development of
financial leasing and make it better serve the real
economy. Accelerating development of financial leasing
could ease financing difficulty and financing cost, spur
investment on equipment and promote industrial
upgrade, said a statement released after a State Council
executive meeting presided over by Premier Li Keqiang.
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/201508/26/c_134558245.htm

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/governmenteconomy/risk-of-technical-recession-looms-with-sharpdrop-in-july-manufacturing
Nation: Thailand DPM Somkid to speed up
stimulus measures
Thai Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak will
fast-track Cabinet approval for a series of urgent
measures, including topping up the Village Fund
scheme, offering soft loans to small and medium
enterprises, and small-scale rural development projects.
According to Finance Minister Apisak Tantivorawong,
the new economic stimulus package is aimed at helping
the grassroots population who have been hit hard by the
sluggish economy and low farm prices.
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/business/Somkidto-speed-up-stimulus-measures-30267547.html

WSJ:
Schlumberger
to
Buy
Cameron
International for $12.7 Billion
Schlumberger Ltd., the worlds largest oil-field service
company, said Wednesday it would buy smaller rival
Cameron International Corp. for $12.7 billion in cash
and stock.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/schlumberger-to-buycameron-international-for-12-7-billion-1440584852?
mod=wsj_nview_latest
Kathimerini: Election preamble coming to an
end
President Prokopis Pavlopoulos is expected on Thursday
to begin the process for Greece to hold its second set of
snap elections this year.
http://www.ekathimerini.com/200935/article/ekathime
rini/news/election-preamble-coming-to-an-end
Business Times: Risk of technical recession in
Singapore looms with sharp drop in July
manufacturing
The odds of Singapore entering a technical recession in
the third quarter have risen significantly after July's
industrial production contracted far more than expected.
What this will mean for monetary policy, though,
remains unclear - economists have mixed views on
whether the central bank will ease its stance come
October. Factory output performed dismally last month;
it declined 6.1 per cent year-on-year - marking the sixth
straight month of contraction - with all clusters save
chemicals posting a drop in production.

These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.