Jim Duncan's Market Report

market update
EARLYSVILLE

Current prices for homes on the market

Trends in pricing
Current levels of supply and demand
Value metrics

Report for the week of

Sunday February 28, 2010

Presented by Jim Duncan

434-242-7140
RealCentralVA.com/Nest Realty Group
www.RealCentralVA.com - jim@realcentralva.com

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www.altosresearch.com
 Jim Duncan | www.RealCentralVA.com | 434.242.7140

City Overview EARLYSVILLE

Real-Time Market Profile Trend THIS WEEK
Median List Price $ 609,900 The median single family home price
Average List Price $ 648,698 in EARLYSVILLE this week is
Least Expensive Listing $ 199,990 $609,900. The 47 homes have been on
Most Expensive Listing $ 2,495,000 the market for an average of 120 days.
Asking Price per Square Foot $ 187
Average Days on Market 120
Total Inventory 47
Absorbed This Week* 2
Percent of Properties with Price Decrease 17 %
Percent Relisted (reset DOM) 4%
Percent Flip (price increased) 0%
Median House Size (sq ft) 2,990 Inventory has been decreasing lately
Median Lot Size 2.5 - 5.0 acres
but the Market Action Index is falling
Median Number of Bedrooms 4.0
also. With days-on-market climbing,
Median Number of Bathrooms 4.0
Median Age these are relatively negative
11
Altos Research Value Statistics implications for the market.
Market Action Index Cool. Buyer's Market 22
Altos Research calculates the Market Action Index which measures available supply
relative to the current level of demand. Index value above 30 indicates conditions favor
the seller. See the section below for full details.

Trend Key QUARTILES

Last Month's Trend Last Quarter's Trend No Clear Monthly/Quarterly Trend To get a tightly targeted understanding
*Metric "Absorbed this Week" covers properties sold and those taken off the market for other reasons. of homes in the market, we break each
Since sales sometimes take months to close, it is impossible to discern in real-time exactly which properties
sold.
locale into quartiles. Each quartile is
25% of the homes listed.
Characteristics per Quartile
Med. Med. Ab- Avg.
Quart Median Price Sqft. Med. Lot Size Bed Bath Age Inven. New sorbed DoM

1 $ 1,149,000 4,333 2.5 - 5.0 acres 4.0 5.0 4 11 0 0 106 Most expensive 25% of homes

2 $ 649,450 3,314 2.5 - 5.0 acres 4.0 4.0 1 12 0 0 160 Upper-middle 25% of homes

3 $ 544,950 3,127 2.5 - 5.0 acres 4.0 3.0 24 12 1 1 114 Lower-middle 25% of homes

4 $ 256,950 1,980 1.0 - 2.5 acres 4.0 3.0 28 12 0 1 99 Least expensive 25% of homes

We'll refer to the quartiles in the trend

graphs below.

Jim Duncan's Market Report Market Update for EARLYSVILLE 2

Jim Duncan | www.RealCentralVA.com | 434.242.7140

PRICE
The market seems to have paused
around its high point. The Market
Action Index is a good leading indicator
for the durability of this trend.

QUARTILE PRICES
Often, we find insights by watching
pricing trends within the quartile
segments.
Prices in most of the market trending
higher in recent weeks. However the
upper-middle section of the market
(Quartile 2) is showing some weakness
lately. Major trend changes typically
start from the top or the bottom of the
market, so watch the high end of the
market for persistent weakness before
projecting this narrow downtrend onto
the market as a whole.

Jim Duncan's Market Report Market Update for EARLYSVILLE 3

Jim Duncan | www.RealCentralVA.com | 434.242.7140

PRICE AND VALUE

In a market where prices are rising
fairly consistently, price per square foot
is essentially flat. This often implies
that new homes coming on the market
are pricier, and also larger than older
homes. As a result the value one can
buy stays the same.

INVENTORY
Inventory has been falling in recent
weeks. Note that declining inventory
alone does not signal a strengthening
market. Look to the Market Action
Index and Days on Market trends to
gauge whether buyer interest is
changing with the available supply.

Jim Duncan's Market Report Market Update for EARLYSVILLE 4

 Jim Duncan | www.RealCentralVA.com | 434.242.7140

Residential house prices are a function of supply and demand, and market conditions can be MARKET ACTION INDEX
characterized by analyzing those factors. Watch this index for sustained changes: if the index
falls into the Buyer’s Market zone for a long period, prices are likely in for a downward The EARLYSVILLE market is currently
correction. in the Buyer's Market zone (below 30),
though not strongly so. The 90-day
Market Action Index stands this week at
22 so buyers should expect find
reasonable levels of selection.

In terms of supply and demand, the

market is getting cooler - more supply is
coming on the market relative to the
The Market Action Index (MAI) illustrates the balance between supply and demand using a sales demand. However, in recent weeks
statistical function of the current rate of sale versus current inventory. prices have been moving higher. Since
it is technically a Buyer's market, this
An MAI value greater than 30 typically indicates a “Seller's Market” (a.k.a. "Hot Market")
because demand is high enough to quickly gobble up available supply. A hot market will price trend may be a result of improved
typically cause prices to rise. MAI values below 30 indicate a "Buyer's Market" (a.k.a. "Cold quality (newer, larger homes) of the
Market") where the inventory of already-listed homes is sufficient to last several months at
the current rate of sales. A cold market will typically cause prices to fall. homes being listed. Look at the
descriptive statistics where you may
notice the homes being listed are larger
and younger than they have been in the
past.
MARKET ACTION QUARTILES
Not surprisingly given the overall
Market Action Index, all quartiles are in
the Buyer's Market zone with several
months of inventory given the current
rate of demand for homes in the
quartile. Watch the quartile for changes
before the overall market shifts. Often
one end of the market (e.g. the low end)
will improve and signal a strengthening
market before the whole group changes.

The quartiles can help you answer the question, "How hot is the market for homes in my price
range?"

Jim Duncan's Market Report Market Update for EARLYSVILLE 5

Jim Duncan | www.RealCentralVA.com | 434.242.7140

DAYS ON MARKET (DOM)

The properties have been on the
market for an average of 120 days. Half
of the listings have come newly on the
market in the past 98 or so days.

DOM PER QUARTILE

It is not uncommon for the higher
priced homes in an area to take longer
to sell than those in the lower
quartiles.

Jim Duncan's Market Report Market Update for EARLYSVILLE 6

Jim Duncan | www.RealCentralVA.com | 434.242.7140

EARLYSVILLE
Neighborhood Detail 22936

Real-Time Market Profile Trend

Median List Price $ 609,900 THIS WEEK
Average List Price $ 648,698 The median single family home price
Least Expensive Listing $ 199,990 in EARLYSVILLE 22936 this week is
Most Expensive Listing $ 2,495,000 $609,900.
Asking Price per Square Foot $ 187
Average Days on Market 120
Total Inventory 47
Absorbed This Week 2
Median House Size (sq ft) 2,990 Inventory has been decreasing lately
Median Lot Size 2.5 - 5.0 acres
but the Market Action Index is falling
Median Number of Bedrooms 4.0
also. With days-on-market climbing,
Median Number of Bathrooms 4.0
Median Age these are relatively negative
11
Altos Research Value Statistics implications for the market.
Market Action Index Cool. Buyer's Market 22

PRICE
We continue to see prices in this zip
code hovering around their high point.
Look for a persistent down-shift in the
Market Action Index before we see
prices deviate from these levels.

Jim Duncan's Market Report Market Update for EARLYSVILLE 7

Jim Duncan | www.RealCentralVA.com | 434.242.7140

PRICE PER QUARTILE

In the quartile market segments, we see
prices in most of this zip code trending
higher in recent weeks. However the
upper-middle section of the market
(Quartile 2) is showing some weakness
lately. Major trend changes typically
start from the top or the bottom of the
market, so it is difficult to identify this
as a significant indicator. Watch the
Market Action Index Quartile
breakdown for Quartiles 1 and 2 for
persistent weakness before projecting
this narrow downtrend onto the market
as a whole.
Characteristics per Quartile QUARTILES
Med. Ab- Avg.
Quart Median Price Med. Sqft Med. Lot Size Bed Bath Age Inven. New sorbed DoM

1 $ 1,149,000 4,333 2.5 - 5.0 acres 4.0 5.0 4 11 0 0 106 Most expensive 25% of homes

2 $ 649,450 3,314 2.5 - 5.0 acres 4.0 4.0 1 12 0 0 160 Upper-middle 25% of homes

3 $ 544,950 3,127 2.5 - 5.0 acres 4.0 3.0 23 12 1 1 114 Lower-middle 25% of homes

4 $ 256,950 1,980 1.0 - 2.5 acres 4.0 3.0 28 12 0 1 99 Least expensive 25% of homes
PRICE AND VALUE
The value placed on homes continues to
increase, despite the fact that prices in
general have been basically flat
recently. These conditions can arise
when inventory is light and more,
smaller homes have more influence on
overall prices.

Jim Duncan's Market Report Market Update for EARLYSVILLE 8

Jim Duncan | www.RealCentralVA.com | 434.242.7140

INVENTORY
Inventory has been falling in recent
weeks with 47 properties available this
week. Note that declining inventory
alone does not signal a strengthening
market. Look to the Market Action
Index to gauge whether buyer interest
is falling with the available supply.

MARKET ACTION INDEX

The EARLYSVILLE 22936 market is
currently in the 'Buyer's Market' zone
(below 30), though not strongly so. The
90-day Market Action Index stands this
week at 22 so buyers should expect find
reasonable levels of selection.

MARKET ACTION QUARTILES

Not surprisingly, all quartiles are in the
Buyer's Market zone with several
months of inventory given the current
levels of demand. Watch the quartiles
for changes before the overall market
shifts.

Jim Duncan's Market Report Market Update for EARLYSVILLE 9

 Jim Duncan | www.RealCentralVA.com | 434.242.7140

DAYS ON MARKET
The properties have been on the market
for an average of 120 days. Half of the
listings have come newly on the market
in the past 98 or so days. Watch the 90-
day DOM trend for signals of a changing
market.

DAYS ON MARKET

It is not uncommon for

the higher priced homes in an area
(Quartiles 1 and 2) to take longer to
sell than those in the lower quartiles.

About Altos Research Corporation

Altos Research Corp. reports real-time analysis of the residential real estate market in local markets across
the country. All information contained herein is based on properties currently listed for sale and available
publicly. When evaluating a particular property, make sure you use comparable sales data in addition to
the market trend information available in this report. The data presented in this report is accurate to the
best of our knowledge, but cannot be guaranteed as such. Use this report as one input in the real estate
decision making process, but do not rely on it for accuracy. Nothing in this report or any other Altos
Research publication is a recommendation to buy or to sell real estate. We recommend you work with a
licensed real estate agent or broker.

Altos Research LLC Copyright 2005-2009. All Rights Reserved www.altosresearch.com

Jim Duncan's Market Report Market Update for EARLYSVILLE 10