Beatrix Morath, Alex Stckl

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Roland Berger Strategy Consultants

03/2013, all rights reserved
www.rolandberger.com

Continued attractive business

opportunities in Asia for market
expansion services
Report on the markets of Southeast Asia, Greater China and
Northeast Asia 2013 update

Study

Published by:
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Holbeinstrrasse 22
8008 Zrich, Switzerland
Tel. +41-1-38481-11
Fax +41-1-38481-19
www.rolandberger.ch

Beatrix Morath, Alex Stckl

Continued attractive business

opportunities in Asia for market
expansion services
Report on the markets of Southeast Asia, Greater China and
Northeast Asia 2013 update

Study

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Contents
1. Summary

2. M
 arket expansion services in Asia
A. Introduction
B. Definition, scope and key industries
C. Market structure and size

5
5
6
8

3. O
 utlook and trends in the market expansion services industry
A. Growth perspectives in market expansion services
B. Competitive dynamics

10
10
12

4. M
 arket expansion services in different industries
A. Fast moving consumer goods
B. Healthcare
C. Specialty chemicals
D. Engineered products

14
14
18
23
25

Appendix Detailed tables at country level

29
Fast moving consumer goods
29
Healthcare
33
Specialty chemicals
38
Engineered products
40

Methodology 42
Authors

45

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Continued attractive business opportunities in Asia for market expansion services

1. Summary
With stagnating markets at home, Western manufacturers are increasingly
looking to Asia for growth opportunities. At the same time, Asian
manufacturers who previously targeted Western markets are now turning
their attention back home in the quest for sales. Yet whatever their origins,
companies operating in Asia encounter certain challenges, including high
risks, market entry costs and a lack of local expertise and infrastructure
when interacting with customers, especially in areas such as marketing,
sales, distribution, logistics and customer support.
This is where market expansion services providers come in: They offer
companies help in these areas. This enables the companies in question to
access new and develop existing markets more efficiently and effectively
than if they had to rely on their own resources.
Our first report on the market expansion services industry in Asia was
published in 2011. Now, two years on, we look back on the predictions
we made then and examine the current situation for the industry. As before,
we look at four key industries for the market expansion services industry:
fast moving consumer goods (FMCG), healthcare products, engineered
products and specialty chemicals. Our geographic focus is on Greater China,
Northeast Asia (including Japan) and Southeast Asia.
Overall, our forecasts remain positive. All four industries show excellent
growth prospects for market expansion services, with the total market in
Asia expected to grow at 8.3% annually over the next five years (our forecast
in 2011 was 8%). The main drivers of growth include a generally healthy
economic outlook in Asia, increasing consumption levels (largely due to an
expanding middle class), an ongoing trend toward urbanization, increasing
intra-Asian trade, and growing levels of outsourcing.
In general, the environment is positive. However, the market outlook differs
between industries, segments and regions. While in the FMCG segment the
Asian consumption market becomes increasingly important among global
manufacturers, the healthcare market, for example, is strongly influenced
by the regulatory environment in different countries. In specialty chemicals,
companies are keen to raise the efficiency of their distribution processes
and are increasingly turning to regional market expansion services providers
for help. In engineered products, by contrast, companies are still generally
rather relying on exclusive sales agencies, while there is a clear trend of
distribution professionalization, leading to increasing demand for integrated
market expansion services.

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Different geographic regions are also subject to different developments. In

China, for example, the government plans to shift the country toward more
spending-driven growth, as outlined in its 12th five-year plan. This has a
specifically positive impact on consumer markets such as the FMCG and
OTC segments. Japan is meanwhile showing signs of economic recovery.
And the opening up of the highly populous country of Myanmar for trade
will spur further investment and growth across Southeast Asia.
Our study concludes with detailed tables for market size and growth
projections through 2017 for 14 Asian countries in each of the four
industries, as well as specific sub-segments. The figures, based on data
and reports from leading institutes for the industries covered, offer
valuable insights for both market expansion services providers operating
in Asia and their clients.

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Continued attractive business opportunities in Asia for market expansion services

2. Market expansion services in Asia

A. Introduction
Two years have passed since we published our first report on the market
expansion services industry in Asia. It is now time to review the predictions
and trends we made in that report. It is also an apt moment to analyze
the impact of two years of steady global economic recovery on the market
expansion services industry, and take a fresh look at what the future holds
for the industry in Asia.
Asia is firmly establishing itself as one of the most attractive markets in
the world. Initially, companies shifted parts of their production to Asia due
to the lower factor costs found there. Now, with most Western markets
stagnant despite the global economic recovery, the trend is different. Asia
is no longer the "extended workbench of the West", but increasingly a
crucial sales market for both Western and Asian manufacturers. Combined
with decreasing intra-Asian trade barriers and growing regional economic
integration, this means that the market expansion services industry in
Asia has a bright future.
Like its predecessor, this report focuses on Southeast Asia, Greater China and
Northeast Asia (see Figure 1). Together, these regions account for more than
USD 16.8 trillion in nominal GDP. This report does not cover Australia, New
Zealand, India, North Korea or Southeast Asian countries that are very small
in terms of their GDP or population, such as Brunei and East Timor.

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B. Definition, scope and key industries

Definition of market expansion services
Market expansion services providers play an important role in helping
businesses expand into new geographic areas. They also assist companies
who already operate in these areas to develop their operations there further.
Typically, they provide a range of market entry and development services,
often focusing on primary business processes in other words, procedures
involving close interaction with customers. This focus on primary business
processes is also what sets market expansion services apart from traditional
forms of outsourcing. These processes include areas such as marketing, sales,
logistics and distribution, and customer service and support (see Figure 2).

Market expansion services providers come in different shapes and sizes.

In some cases, they offer a standard range of services; in others, they offer
highly customized solutions, supporting businesses right along the value
chain. The advantage of the latter type of provider is that they also channel
valuable information from customers back to the company, allowing the
company to optimize its business operations.
Market expansion services providers versus single-service contractors
The focus of this study is on market expansion services providers. These
are companies that develop end-to-end solutions for their clients, covering
different parts of the value chain and also managing the interfaces between
them, resulting in less complexity and coordination costs. The study does
not consider single-service contractors companies that focus on specific
services or parts of the value chain, leaving control of the value chain
and management of its interfaces to the client.

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Continued attractive business opportunities in Asia for market expansion services

Key industries for market expansion services

Two main factors drive demand for market expansion services: (i)
the need for companies to have a local sales/marketing platform and
a capillary network, and (ii) the level of product customization and
technical knowledge companies require along the value chain.
(i) Need for a local sales/marketing platform and capillary network
The key driver of demand for market expansion services is the need
for companies to have a local sales and marketing platform. Frequently,
manufacturers not only find it too expensive and risky to build such a
network on their own, they also lack the local knowledge, resources and
internal skills needed to do so. Single-service contractors (e.g. pure-play
logistics providers) do not offer the range of value-added services required
by companies hoping to penetrate markets. Consequently, these companies
turn to market expansion services providers, who offer both value-added
services and effective sales and logistics networks. The greater the need felt
by companies in this area, the more likely they are to work with market
expansion services providers.
Industries that deal with manufactured goods need a local sales and
marketing platform the most. These industries include consumer goods,
healthcare and certain engineered products. Other industries do not
require such help industries such as fresh food that is not distributed
nationwide, say, or tobacco, where distribution is frequently controlled
by the government.
We do not look at basic chemicals in this study as they are something of
a special case: They are usually sold bulk and without additional services,
and have dedicated distribution networks (pipelines, vessels, trains).
However, we do look at specialty chemicals such as pesticides, surfactants
and food additives. As a rule, these products are sold in low volumes
and at high prices. They also require a capillary network and specialized
services, including formulation, testing, product innovation and compliance
management making them an interesting target for market expansion
services providers.
(ii) Level of product customization and technical knowledge
Another key driver of demand for market expansion services is the level
of product customization and the technical knowledge required along the
value chain. Some fields are highly technical or require a high degree of
customization plant engineering, for instance. Companies specializing
in these fields must work closely with their customers, so having good
customer interfaces is vital.

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In practice, most companies manage the relevant processes in-house,

however, resulting in little demand for market expansion services.
Accordingly, we do not discuss these industries further in this study.
Standard products are different. It is here that market expansion services
providers come into their own. Indeed, the more standardized the product,
the greater the demand for market expansion services.

C. Market structure and size

The industries discussed in this report vary considerably in terms of both
their overall market size and their relevance for market expansion services.
We look at four specific industries, outlined below.
Fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) continues to represent the largest
overall source of demand for market services, accounting for sales of around
USD1,144 billion. Demand in this industry varies more between regions
than in other industries.
Engineered products represent the second largest source of demand for
market expansion services. This industry generated sales of more than
USD1,100 billion in 2012 (imported goods only; see Section 4.D).
In third place comes the healthcare market (prescription drugs, over-thecounter products and medical devices). Sales in this industry amount to
more than USD300 billion.
Finally, we have specialty chemicals. This industry accounts for sales
of some USD177 billion (see Figure 4).

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Continued attractive business opportunities in Asia for market expansion services

Market sizes vary by region as well as industry. In general, the more

strategically relevant a market in terms of its size and growth rate for a
manufacturer, the lower the penetration of market expansion services.
This is because in large, fast-growing markets, manufacturers tend to
invest directly in their own distribution.
In terms of total market size, the Greater China region has further
strengthened its leading position in Asia since our last report, and now
accounts for sales of USD1,306 billion. Northeast Asia comes a clear second,
with sales of USD1,024 billion. The dominance of these two regions reflects
the fact that China and Japan are the two largest single economies among
the countries analyzed.
Southeast Asia is today the smallest region, mirroring the diverse and
fragmented markets in its different countries. Total demand is around
USD420 billion. However as expected from our comments further above
this is also the region with the highest penetration rate for market expansion
services. In terms of penetration rates, it is followed by Greater China and
finally Northeast Asia, where many manufacturers prefer to maintain control
over much of their value chain. This is especially true for conglomerates,
which tend to keep marketing and key account management in-house.

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3. Outlook and trends in the market expansion services

industry
A. Growth perspectives in market expansion services
Our forecast for the market remains positive, as in our previous report. Good
growth prospects are seen across all the industries analyzed. With forecast
growth rates of 7.5% FMCG and healthcare in particular even outperform
our previous expectations.
On a regional level, Greater China retains its status as the most attractive
growth region, with market expansion services growing more than 11%
across all industries. Southeast Asia is still in second place, with growth
expectations of almost 10% annually in the FMCG market and more than
10% in other industries. The most mature market region, Northeast Asia,
has varying growth expectations: just over 1% for FMCG, 3% for healthcare,
over 5% for specialty chemicals, and over 8% for engineered products
(see Figure 5).

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Continued attractive business opportunities in Asia for market expansion services

The total compound annual growth rates (CAGR) presented here are
based on the two components of growth in the market expansion services
industry: (i) expected growth in consumption, and (ii) expected increase in
penetration rates for market expansion services. We look at each of these
components in turn below.
(i) Growth in consumption
The general economic outlook in Asia remains positive. This will lead to
a continuing rise in consumption across all regions. In Southeast Asia,
countries such as Indonesia and the Philippines have potential to become the
next "Tiger economies" of the region. At the same time, in Northeast Asia,
Japan is showing signs of economic recovery following the 2011 earthquake
and tsunami.
The slight slowdown in China's expected economic growth does not affect
forecast consumption in Asia, as it is countered by China's goal, outlined in
the 12th five-year plan, of shifting the country toward more spending-driven
growth. The government is supporting this effort with a stimulus package
to incentivize consumer spending and boost domestic consumer markets.
Although the economic outlook varies from country to country, growth in
consumption across Asia continues to be primarily driven by the expanding
middle class. Over the past few years, average disposable incomes have been
steadily rising a trend that looks set to continue. Increasing disposable
incomes lead to a two-fold change in consumption patterns: away from
necessities and low-cost products, and toward optional and high-quality
products. This has a major impact not only on consumer-oriented markets
such as FMCG and healthcare products, but also on industrial verticals
such as specialty chemicals and engineered products in other words,
the ingredients and machinery needed to produce these products.
Ongoing urbanization in Greater China and Southeast Asia and the aging
population particularly in Northeast Asia also continue to drive consumption.
These two factors will lead to increased consumption in Asia as a whole.
(ii) Increase in penetration rates
Asia's growing importance as a market for both Western and Asian products
will lead to strong additional demand for market expansion services in
the various regions. In addition, Asian manufacturers are expected to
increasingly expand their regional footprint, leading to a steady rise in
intra-Asian trade and thus demand for market expansion services.

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Equally important still, however, is the ongoing pressure faced by Western

manufacturers due to stagnation in their home markets. This pressure
is driving them to enter new markets, raise efficiency and focus on core
competencies. As a result, they are outsourcing their non-core activities
along the value chain, rather than keeping them in-house. The result is
increased demand for market expansion services providers the logic being
that it is less complex and consequently more efficient for manufacturers to
outsource to one full-service partner than to coordinate various single-service
contractors for each step along the value chain.
This trend is supported by the increased number of innovative services
offered by market expansion services providers, such as market insights and
customer relationship services. This extended service portfolio makes market
expansion services providers more attractive to clients, as they are now
able to cover even more steps along the value chain.
B. Competitive dynamics
The competitive landscape in the market expansion services industry
remains highly fragmented. However, a number of factors are driving
consolidation. One such factor is that the distribution industry for market
expansion services is becoming increasingly professional in most countries.
Manufacturers are striving to become more efficient and effective all the
time. This is leading to a greater demand for full-service providers on a
regional level. Managing various local partners for different steps along the
value chain is simply too complex. This tendency toward regionalization,
coupled with general consolidation across all industries in Asian markets,
leads us to believe that the market expansion industry will see further
consolidation in the coming five years.
Generally, the market expansion services industry can be divided into four
different types of service providers:
Pan-Asian cross-industry market expansion services providers:
These providers have operations in several countries and also offer their
services to companies in several industries. Their value proposition is rooted
in their regional coverage and the ability to realize synergies. In this market,
they are the only providers that can benefit significantly from economies of
scale (e.g. investment possibilities and relationship networking) and offer
their clients solutions for an entire region. Since these attributes are difficult
to replicate entry barriers are relatively high.

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Continued attractive business opportunities in Asia for market expansion services

Pan-Asian single-industry market expansion services providers:

These providers operate in several geographic markets but only in one
specific industry. Their value proposition is their industry specialization
coupled with cross-border activities. Especially for industry-focused
providers, however, it is very important to achieve a critical mass in each
country. Otherwise, an inability to exploit economies of scale will hinder
their efficiency.
Local cross-industry market expansion services providers:
These providers operate in only one country but cover several industries.
They are much smaller than broad-based pan-Asian market expansion
services providers and are usually family-run. Their focus is geographically
limited due to a lack of regional market knowledge and insufficient financial
resources to build up additional infrastructure abroad. Their distinctive value
proposition is a strong local foothold and access to local customers.
Local single-industry market expansion services providers:
Local niche players act in a single country and provide services in one
specific industry. Similar to local cross-industry players they lack regional
market knowledge to build up additional infrastructure abroad. Though
negligible on an international scale, niche market expansion services
providers can still grow to a respectable size in large countries such
as China and Japan.
Since our last report, the competitive landscape has not changed
dramatically. Among pan-Asian cross-industry market expansion services
providers, DKSH continues to be the leading player in terms of transaction
value and the sophistication level of services. Other market participants
includes Li & Fung Distribution (formerly known as IDS, also appears as LF
Asia in some markets), Jebsen & Jessen and the Getz Group. Major pan-Asian
market expansion services providers with a single-industry focus remain
Zuellig Pharma and Connell Brothers.
As the market expansion services industry is highly diverse, the current
trend toward consolidation is expected to pick up further speed. In this
context, pan-Asian cross-industry market expansion services providers are
best positioned to profit from this development. They have the necessary
resources, the capacity to manage bolt-on acquisitions and the ability to
take business and people from competing companies. They are also best
positioned to benefit from M&A transactions, due to their network and
client/customer interfaces.

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4. Market expansion services in different industries

A. Fast moving consumer goods
The FMCG industry produces affordable finished goods that are consumed
by the majority of the population. This includes food, drinks, tobacco, as
well as non-food products such as household care items, disposable paper
products, cosmetics and pet food. Food products account for approximately
45% of the FMCG market.
Despite its global brands, the FMCG market is highly fragmented. For many
products, it is largely locally driven. Indeed, the ten largest producers of
FMCG products which include giants such as Nestl, Philip Morris and
Procter & Gamble only make up just over 10% of the global market.
Market structure and size
Retail in the Asia Pacific region differs fundamentally from the West in terms
of its structure. Traditional retail forms such as wet markets and mom-andpop stores play an important role in the day-to-day purchasing behavior of
the region's more than 2.2 billion consumers. Modern retail forms such
as supermarkets, hypermarkets and convenience stores are slowly gaining
ground, but in most countries the more traditional retail forms continue
to dominate. Regional differences are also apparent: In Hong Kong and
Singapore, modern retail forms are well established, while in China and
most other Southeast Asian markets, traditional retail retains its strong
hold on the market.
Consumer goods manufacturers have to be able to simultaneously address
the requirements of both traditional and modern retail channels. They must
cater to modern retailers demanding distribution networks close to Western
standards, while still supplying traditional outlets through store-by-store
procurement, with specialized marketing and point-of-sale (POS) support.
This two-fold market approach increases the need for intermediaries in the
distribution of consumer goods. Local adaptation is required for the entire
marketing, sales, distribution, logistics and customer service value chain.
Distribution structures must be able to cater to both modern and traditional
retail outlets, while achieving the necessary economies of scale. Market
expansion services providers in Asia must therefore offer a top-notch local
sales and distribution network.

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Continued attractive business opportunities in Asia for market expansion services

According to our estimates, the current market for market expansion

services in the FMCG industry in Asia is around USD255 billion,
representing 22% of the total consumption market. In FMCG, the
outsourcing market and thus the market for market expansion services
is limited by the large share of locally produced and consumed products,
such as in the area of bakery foods. It is also restricted by the fact that some
products are subject to explicit governmental control in their distribution,
such as tobacco and alcohol. Overall, the demand for market expansion
services is lower for food products than for non-food products, such as
cosmetics and toiletries, the latter tending to be produced and distributed
on an international scale (see Figure 6).

The market expansion services landscape in the Asian FMCG segment

remains fragmented. There are only very few international players who offer
a broad service portfolio across almost the entire geographic region, such as
DKSH and Li & Fung Distribution. Most providers still selectively focus on
a limited range of standardized services while covering only a smaller subregion or a single country. As such limited scopes reduce potential efficiency
gains for manufacturers, a tendency toward regional, full-service market
expansion services providers can be expected.
Market outlook and trends
The outlook for market expansion services in the FMCG industry over
the next five years remains very positive, driven by the continuing rise
of the Asian middle class. We therefore reconfirm the prediction made
in our previous report that growth will continue. Indeed, growth is likely
to outperform our initial expectations, at 7.5% across all regions.

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The strongest growth market is still Greater China, with projected growth
rates of 11.4% per annum. We expect Southeast Asia to grow at almost 10%.
Northeast Asia is projected to grow at a more stable 1.2%, as Japan shows
signs of economic recovery from the 2011 natural disasters.
These growth rates are largely driven by the rise in overall consumption.
However, they are also driven by the fact that market expansion services are
growing faster than the market itself. This is due to the increasing number
of manufacturers seeking growth outside the currently sluggish Western
economies not only Western players, but also Asian companies looking to
grow in other Asian regions and markets. Companies entering new markets
or developing existing ones in Asia face the same problems, whatever their
origins. They turn to market expansion services providers to ramp up their
market potential while maintaining an efficient cost base.
Forecast changes in the penetration rate of market expansion services range
from 0.4% to 1.1% (see Figure 7).

The growth prospects for Greater China and Southeast Asia are particularly
good. Key factors here include the rise of the middle class leading to a
higher average disposable income, population growth, the trend toward
urbanization, and current political developments. For example, the Chinese
government's most recent five-year plan foresees stimulus packages with a
stronger emphasis on the development of the domestic consumer market.
Similarly, the opening up of the Myanmar economy for trade is expected
to spur further investment and growth in Southeast Asia.

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Continued attractive business opportunities in Asia for market expansion services

Spotlight: Luxury timepieces


The market for luxury goods in Asia continues to prosper, particularly the
market for luxury timepieces. We estimate the total size of the relevant market
for market expansion services to be USD1.9 billion: USD1.4 billion in Greater
China, USD0.4 billion in Northeast Asia, and over USD0.1 billion in the
three major markets of Southeast Asia Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand
(see Figure 8).

The outlook for market expansion services in the luxury timepieces segments
is excellent. Growth in this market, which still offers great development
potential in volume terms, will be spurred on by the rise of the Asian middle
class and the increasing number of small and medium-sized luxury goods
manufacturers eager to gain market share in Asia.
Growth rates are particularly high in China; indeed, Chinese demand reaches
beyond the country's borders, with Chinese luxury shopping tourism boosting
growth across the entire region. Increased demand for value-added services
will lead to additional growth in market expansion services above the level
of expected growth in consumption (see Figure 9).

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B. Healthcare
The healthcare industry includes prescription drugs, over-the-counter (OTC)
products and medical devices.
Prescription drugs include all licensed pharmaceutical products that are only
available with a physician prescription, including both patent-protected and
generic drugs. OTC products, by contrast, are available without prescription,
and include analgesics, digestive remedies, eye-care products, nutritional
products, vitamins, dietary supplements, allergy care products and traditional
healthcare products.
Prescription drugs and OTC products are typically sold via the same
channels in Asia: mostly pharmacies and hospitals. However, the market
characteristics of these two segments differ in terms of the regulatory
requirements affecting them and their status with regard to government
reimbursement, which varies from country to country.
Medical devices include consumables (e.g. wound care products and
catheters), diagnostic devices (diagnostic instruments and X-ray apparatus),
dental products (drills and supplies) and orthopedic, implantable and
other devices.

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Continued attractive business opportunities in Asia for market expansion services

Market structure and size

The core competencies of pharmaceutical companies are research and
development (R&D), manufacturing, and global marketing and regional
market access. Sales competencies vary based on the portfolio size in a
country. The level of channel concentration (e.g. sales to a limited number
of hospitals) may allow some companies to achieve scale with a smaller
turnover. Distribution offers little or no potential for competitive advantage,
so pharmaceutical companies especially Western multinationals are
generally reluctant to invest in this business process. As well, due to the scale
issue mentioned above, age of products in the overall portfolio, general lack
of company expertise or risk appetite, more pharmaceutical companies are
outsourcing parts or all of their sales and marketing activities in addition
to their distribution.
The distribution of pharmaceutical and OTC products is complex, with
challenging standards in terms of lead times, strict requirements in terms of
corporate governance, pharmacovigilance (drug safety), the need for deep
capillary distribution for some widely used products, and product quality
(e.g. good manufacturing practices such as cold chains). Furthermore, Asian
markets vary with regard to their regulatory environment, healthcare system,
integrity of the healthcare value chain and attitudes toward the protection
of intellectual property. Healthcare companies usually lack the capabilities
and economies of scale to run an efficient and comprehensive distribution
network under such market conditions. Consequently, they look to market
expansion services providers who interface with the purchasing customers
and achieve economies of scale by bundling product distribution for multiple
manufacturers locally for Asia's highly fragmented markets.
Market expansion services providers offer an integrated range of services,
typically encompassing regulatory services, customized marketing, sales,
and a closed capillary distribution and logistics network with invoicing
and customer support. They thus represent a viable means for healthcare
companies to access and further grow in Asian markets.
Market expansion services are commonly used by multinational companies,
both small and medium-sized enterprises and large firms. Local manufacturers
of generic drugs currently make less use of them in terms of sales volume.
While local generics play a very important role in overall patient care,
accounting for a sizeable share of the total market, premium and transparent
capillary services that ensure the integrity of the value chain, offered by
market expansion services providers rather suit the high product quality and
legal compliance standards required of manufacturers of branded medicines.

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We estimate the overall market for market expansion services in the

prescription drugs and OTC products segment to be around USD138 billion.
The dominant region in the Asia Pacific market is Northeast Asia, at USD74
billion, with Greater China gradually catching up at around USD52 billion.
The market in Southeast Asia is roughly USD11 billion (see Figure 10).

The penetration rate for market expansion services is lower for medical
devices than for prescription drugs and OTC products. Medical devices
are technically complex, and manufacturers are less willing to outsource
vital steps in the value chain unless they can find a capable partner who
can provide these services at the high quality level required. In particular,
sales, after sales services and customer support provide valuable feedback
from customers, helping manufacturers with their product development.
Additionally, economies of scale in sales can be achieved with lower
personnel resources due to the channel concentration in the segment
namely larger, more developed hospitals. As a result, they prefer to keep
these activities in-house.
This being said, as competition grows with the market size, manufacturers
are required to differentiate on service, such as better product availability.
This demand increasingly leads to manufacturers evaluating aspects of
the customer service process being better served by a dedicated market
expansion services provider.
We estimate that the overall market for market expansion services in the
medical device segment in Asia is around USD12 billion. Northeast Asia
dominates the market by far, at USD7 billion, followed by Greater China
at around USD3 billion, and finally Southeast Asia at USD1 billion (see
Figure 11).

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Continued attractive business opportunities in Asia for market expansion services

The market expansion services landscape in the Asian healthcare industry

remains fragmented. The majority of providers continue to operate in
their often large domestic markets with varying scopes of services. Only
two market expansion services providers, DKSH and Zuellig, offer both a
comprehensive geographic reach in Asia and coverage of all three product
categories (prescription drugs, OTC products and medical devices). DKSH
is though the only provider to offer customized solutions in a wide range
of countries.
Today, the greater part of market expansion services providers in the
healthcare industry offer a somewhat standardized service portfolio.
However, the industry's dynamic regulatory environment and the increasing
level of competition in Asian healthcare markets are leading to rising
demand for customized service solutions.
Market outlook and trends
Overall, we expect Asia to continue to see very attractive growth rates
over the next five years. Steadily increasing government health expenditure
across the region (driving the whole market) and the growing middle class
(driving OTC and all privately funded healthcare products) ensure that Asia's
healthcare market remains the fastest-growing in the world.
Additional growth expected in the prescription drugs segment in coming
years will be counterbalanced by increased price pressure. In line with global
trends, Asian governments are driving overall therapeutic pricing standards
and generic drug usage, leading to stronger competition from generic drug
manufacturers. Hence, countries with highly reimbursed healthcare will see
a stronger impact on overall value growth, while volume growth will persist.

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Overall, the outlook for the next five years is positive, in line with the
forecast in our 2011 report (see Figure 12).

We expect to see further growth in the OTC product segment, driven by

the increase in disposable income in Asia and Chinese efforts to develop
domestic consumer markets. New segments such as traditional Chinese
medicine will further boost projected growth rates.

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Continued attractive business opportunities in Asia for market expansion services

In both the prescription drug and OTC product segments, we expect the
complex regulatory environment in Asia to drive demand for value-added
services along the value chain (e.g. regulatory support, repacking, relabeling
and customized inventory management). At the same time, the increase in
intra-Asian trade means a shift of demand toward regional market expansion
services providers, leading to further consolidation in the industry.
C. Specialty chemicals
The specialty chemicals industry supplies the manufacturers of consumer,
industrial and healthcare products with the ingredients they need. Specialty
chemicals differ from commodity chemicals: They are bought in lower
volumes, at higher prices and involve a higher level of customization. As
a result and unlike commodity chemicals they also need extra services
such as product innovation and formulation. These services are provided
by market expansion services providers.
A broad range of industries make use of specialty chemicals. The biggest
segments are electronic chemicals, surfactants, construction chemicals,
pesticides and specialty polymers, which together make up around 40% of
the market. Compared to commodity chemicals, specialty chemicals require
less capital expenditure and involve higher switching costs for customers.
These factors generally make it more attractive than the commodity
chemical segment, but at the same time they mean that manufacturers
have to target a highly diverse market.
The specialty chemicals industry has seen some consolidation in recent
years, but it remains fairly fragmented. Price pressure has risen, the result of
industry overcapacity and shifts of production to low-cost Asian countries.
These factors have led to manufacturers increasingly relying on market
expansion services providers for support.
Market structure and size
The manufacturers of specialty chemicals continue to face a challenging
environment in Asia. As in other parts of the world, specialty chemicals
companies make extensive use of third-party providers for sales, marketing
and distribution to small and medium-sized customer companies. However,
key accounts such as large multinationals are managed in-house in most
cases, due to the importance of these relationships.

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Demand for market expansion services in the specialty chemicals industry

is therefore largely based on the existence of a large number of small
customers. Most companies lack the critical mass to efficiently serve
these customers directly. This fact, together with the complex regulatory
environments in Asia and the often crucial role of market expansion services
providers in single sourcing on behalf of manufacturers and customers,
creates a high level of demand for market expansion services.
We estimate the current size of the market for market expansion services
in Asia to be almost USD19 billion, with Greater China accounting for
the largest share, at over USD10 billion. Northeast Asia represents a
market of USD6.5 billion, and Southeast Asia a market of USD1.8 billion
(see Figure 14).

The competitive environment in market expansion services in the specialty

chemicals industry is highly fragmented, with more than 1,500 distributors.
The only international players that operate across the entire region are DKSH
and Connell Brothers. While most providers currently focus their services
on selling individual products, cross-regional market expansion services
providers are increasingly centering their portfolios around solutions.
Market outlook and trends
The market for market expansion services is driven by two factors: a positive
outlook in terms of demand for the industry's products, and growing demand
for market expansion services by companies. Estimated annual growth in the
penetration of market expansion services will be 0.6% in Northeast Asia and
1.3% in Greater China and Southeast Asia (see Figure 15).

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Continued attractive business opportunities in Asia for market expansion services

We can also observe a trend away from local single-service contractors

(e.g. pure-play logistics providers and traditional distribution providers) and
toward regional market expansion services providers. This development
is triggered by a desire for increased professionalization in the distribution
process on the part of specialty chemical manufacturers. Greater competition
and the resulting price and cost pressure mean that manufacturers have to
become more efficient. In response, they are turning more and more to
market expansion services providers who provide integrated services rather
than single-service contractors for each step along the value chain.
D. Engineered products
We define engineered products as long-lifecycle items used in the industrial
development and production of goods. These items include industrial
apparatus and equipment (e.g. photovoltaic equipment, analytical
instruments, life science instruments and environmental technology), power
generation machinery (engines, motors, small generators) and industrial
machinery (food processing machines, handling equipment, textile machines,
machine tools). We exclude plant engineering from our investigation,
as these products are highly customized and generally developed on a
project-by-project basis, leaving little scope for market expansion services.
The market for market expansion services in the engineered products
industry is highly granular. Most of the industry is highly specialized and
the technological requirements depend strongly on the client's industry and
the specific application. What all engineered products have in common,
however, is their long lifecycle, coupled with a very high level of product
customization and the need for after sales service support.

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The industry landscape is highly fragmented. Multinationals such as

General Electric, Siemens and ABB dominate certain segments. Even here,
however, they compete with many smaller companies specializing in specific
technologies or applications.
The core competencies of manufacturers lie in R&D and production.
However, with increasing competition and dwindling margins, companies
are increasingly looking to after sales services as a solution. These services
have gained considerably in importance over the last decade.
Market structure and size
As the world's manufacturing powerhouse, Asia enjoys great demand
for engineered products. This is reflected in its total market size: almost
USD1,122 billion in imports in 2012.
Nevertheless, the overall penetration rate for market expansion services
remains low, at just 9%. Most manufacturers facing the challenge of gaining
access to local customers still rely on single-service contractors, such as
exclusive sales agents. At the same time, the increased importance of after
sales services and the ongoing professionalization of distribution favoring
integrated service solutions imply a shift toward market expansion services
providers in the industry.
We expect the size of the market for market expansion services in 2012 to
be USD22 billion in Southeast Asia, approaching USD65 billion in Greater
China and USD18.5 billion in Northeast Asia. The total forecast market
size is based on import quotas for the individual countries, assuming that
only foreign companies make use of market expansion services providers.
We assume that local players generally use their own resources or local
companies to supply their domestic markets (see Figure 16).

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Continued attractive business opportunities in Asia for market expansion services

Engineered products show the lowest penetration rate for market expansion
services of the four industries examined in this study. Large companies do
not tend to use third parties for market-related functions (with the exception
of logistics), while highly specialized small and medium-sized manufacturers
tend to rely on an integrated market approach. Few market expansion
services providers actually offer specialized expertise in the industry. Added
to this is the fact that some companies prefer to carry out after sales support
in-house, as this is where much of the added value lies. Still, with companies
increasingly focusing on their core competences rather than market-based
activities for which they lack the necessary local knowledge, resources
and internal skills, we see major potential for market expansion services
providers in this industry.
The competitive landscape of market expansion services in the engineered
products industry in Asia remains very fragmented. Most local players
compete in selected niche markets, operating in only one or two countries.
Additionally, Japanese trading houses (keiretsu) provide market expansion
services to domestic manufacturers, while some providers focus on Chinese
products only. Finally, there are only few market expansion services
providers that operate in the entire region or at least in large sub-regions,
with DKSH playing the leading role in this peer group.

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Market outlook and trends

In the next five years, we expect to see an ongoing shift from singleservice contractors toward market expansion services providers. This will
be accompanied by further market consolidation among both single-service
contractors and market expansion services providers.
In terms of import growth, we expect to see a partial shift from Greater China
to Southeast Asia. This will be due to the slightly weaker increase in industrial
growth in China and the continued above-average economic growth of many
Southeast Asian countries. Thus, we expect imports to grow at an annual rate
of over 11% in Southeast Asia and Greater China, and around 8% in Northeast
Asia.
The improved growth rate in Northeast Asia is due to two main factors. On the
one hand, we have the expected recovery from the catastrophe that struck the
Japanese manufacturing industry and the high level of demand from rebuilding
activities. On the other, we will see a strong increase in demand due to the
high personnel costs for sales and services staff, making outsourcing a more
lucrative and effective solution for both Western and Asian manufacturers
keen to boost efficiency.
The penetration rate for market expansion services is set to grow by an
estimated 1.5%. This growth rate reflects the trends discussed above and is
well above the growth rates expected in the other three industries analyzed
in this study (see Figure 17).

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Continued attractive business opportunities in Asia for market expansion services

Appendix Detailed tables at country level

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Continued attractive business opportunities in Asia for market expansion services

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Methodology
For the purposes of this study, Roland Berger Strategy Consultants developed
a market model that covers four main industries (including over 70 subindustries and segments) in 14 Asian countries. The model provides
a market outlook through 2017.
1) Market sizing
The market model is based on industry-specific data and reports from
leading institutes in the industries covered. For each industry, we talked to
experts about which data source best fits our purposes. Wherever possible,
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants based its analysis on one source only
per industry. This was done to make the results across different countries
as reliably comparable as possible. For some industries (such as specialty
chemicals) and some countries (especially peripheral countries such as
Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar), however, the chosen data source did not
provide all the information required. In these cases, the missing data was
either retrieved from additional leading data sources or modeled from the
best available proxies, using regression analysis based on the available data
set (e.g. GDP for consumer goods, national health expenditure for medical
devices, etc.). Macroeconomic data such as GDP figures and national
health expenditure were retrieved from sources in the public domain
(e.g. UNCTAD, Worldbank, IMF, WHO and national offices of statistics).
Figure 18 provides a detailed overview of the most important sources:

2) Market breakdown
After calculating the size of each market based on the total consumption/
investment market, Roland Berger Strategy Consultants estimated the
size of the market for relevant market expansion services in a multi-stage
approach (see Figure 18). The input for this step-by-step market breakdown
conducted in the course of the preparation of the initial report in 2011 was a
combination of (quantitative) market data and (qualitative and quantitative)
expert opinions.

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Continued attractive business opportunities in Asia for market expansion services

3) Market projection
Our market projections distinguish between forecasts of market demand per
se and forecasts of how the penetration rate for market expansion services
will develop.
All our market projections are reported in current prices and based on fixed
exchange rates (base: 2012). Where available, future projections (for the
demand side) were taken directly from market databases published by the
relevant research institutes (e.g. Euromonitor).
Where these leading sources did not provide the data needed for specific
segments or industries, future data was modeled based on the best available
macroeconomic proxies.
4) Validation
To validate the assumptions underpinning the market model and the
company-specific data, Roland Berger Strategy Consultants originally
conducted more than 100 interviews with industry leaders, experts and
representatives of the academic community.
Further validation of the current update occurred by means of additional
interviews with various general experts on market expansion services and
the Asia Pacific markets.

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5) Restrictions
As with any model, forecasting methodology or competitive analysis, our
analysis tool is subject to certain limitations. For the methodology described
above, the most important restrictions are as follows:
> Market size:
The market sizes are based on market data from leading institutes.
As explained above, incomplete data was modeled on the basis of the
best available proxies. However, the market sizes modeled are only
approximations and may differ from actual market sizes.
> Market breakdown:
The market breakdown is the result of our analysis of quantitative and
qualitative information consolidated from market reports and interviews
with experts. Qualitative information is necessary for a realistic market
breakdown. By consequence, however, estimates are inherent in the
methodology, resulting in best approximations that may again differ
from actual market sizes.
> Market forecasts:
The market forecasts are projections of the future and can never fully
take account of all eventualities. They remain predictions nothing more,
nothing less. It follows that any unpredictable events that impact economic
developments cannot be mirrored in such forecasts. The forecasts made
in this report incorporate expected future market trends based on the
information available at the time of quantification. Certain deviations
are to be expected.
Despite these significant restrictions, we are convinced that our analysis
presents a true and fair picture of the markets analyzed.

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Continued attractive business opportunities in Asia for market expansion services

Authors

Beatrix Morath
Managing Partner Roland Berger Strategy Consultants in Switzerland

Alex Stckl
Senior Consultant at Roland Berger Strategy Consultants

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Disclaimer
To create transparency in an industry not yet researched by any independent
analysis, this report, commissioned by DKSH, has been prepared by Roland
Berger AG on a neutral, objective, and independent basis.
This present report is provided by Roland Berger AG for information
purposes only. Each recipient should conduct its own analysis of the
information contained in this report. No recipient is entitled to rely on the
work of Roland Berger AG in this report for any purpose. No representation
or warranty (express or implied) is given as to the accuracy or completeness
of the information contained in this report. To the extent permitted by
law, Roland Berger AG, its members, employees and agents accept no
liability, and disclaim all responsibility for the consequences of the recipient
or anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the information
contained in this report or for any decision based on it.
Any estimates or projections of future economic performance are influenced
by numerous factors that may impact the various components of the
estimates or projections. Although Roland Berger AG exercises reasonable
care when making forecasts or predictions, factors in the process, such
as market behavior, are inherently uncertain. As such, future events
may not unfold as expected and actual results achieved for the forecast
periods covered may vary from the information presented. Any estimates
or projections will only take into account information available to Roland
Berger AG up to the date of delivery of this report, hence, findings may be
affected by new developments. Accordingly, we do not guarantee that any
outcome presented in this report will be achieved. Further, events may have
occurred since we prepared this report which may affect it and its findings.
Roland Berger AG has indicated within this report the sources of the
information provided. We have not sought to independently verify those
sources unless otherwise noted within this report.
Roland Berger AG is under no obligation in any circumstances to update this
report, in either oral or written form, for events occurring after the report
has been issued in final form.
The recipient must not reproduce, disclose or distribute the information
herein without the express prior written consent of Roland Berger AG.

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Continued attractive business opportunities in Asia for market expansion services

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Continued attractive business opportunities in Asia for market expansion services

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Published by:
Roland Berger Strategy Consultants
Holbeinstrasse 22
8008 Zrich, Switzerland
Tel. +41-1-38481-11
Fax +41-1-38481-19
www.rolandberger.ch

Beatrix Morath, Alex Stckl

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03/2013, all rights reserved
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Continued attractive business

opportunities in Asia for market
expansion services
Report on the markets of Southeast Asia, Greater China and
Northeast Asia 2013 update

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