THE SUPER FAVOURITE FOOTBALL SYSTEM

A Quantum Gain Trading product

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Table of Contents
Section

Page

1) 10,000 ft Summary

2) What is a Super Favourite?

3) What is this System?

5 5

3.1) Question 1- Why does the price of a draw often rise pre kick off?

3.2) Question 2- Why is the Draw price slow to move during the opening
minutes?

4) The Ideal Scenario Before Kick Off

5) Entering a Trade

6) Exiting a Trade

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6.1) Scenario 1-The Super Favourite scores first

10

6.2) Scenario 2- Game remains 0-0

10

6.3) Scenario 3- The Underdog scores first

10

7) Other Points

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Lay the Draw Early

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Strike Rate

11

The Draw Price

11

How Long to Stay in the Market?

12

The Stop Loss

12

Bank Size

12

Trading Out and Greening Up

13

Results to Date

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8) Appendix - Illustrative Examples

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Section 1) 10,000 ft Summary

The Super Favourite Football System seeks to enter into a trade with very little risk,
but can provide huge rewards if the super favourite scores a goal in the opening minutes.

It is recommended that you read through this entire ebook, along with the Illustrative
Examples, and test the method before putting actual cash on a trade. The successful
traders put time into their trades.
A quick summary of the method is as follows:
Find a game involving a super favourite
Lay the Draw pre kick off - ideally a few hours before kick off
Once the game kicks off - leave the trade open for 10 - 20 minutes, depending
on how volatile the price movement is on the Draw price and the amount you are
willing to lose on each trade as a result of decreasing price movement.
When the trade is open:
1) If the super favourite scores

Green out for a good profit

2) If nothing happens - stays 0-0

Trade out for a small loss at whatever

stop loss level you have set

3) If the underdog scores

Trade out for a loss - usually around

20% - 30% of your initial stake

Section 2) What is a Super Favourite?

A super favourite is a team that is considered an overwhelming favourite. They are usually
playing against a struggling underdog and their price to win is usually below 1.60.
Some current examples of teams that are considered consistent super favourites in a
number of leagues include:
Germany - Bayern Munich

England - Manchester City, Chelsea

Spain - Real Madrid, Barcelona

Italy - Juventus

France - Paris SG

Scotland - Rangers (in League 1), Celtic

Portugal - Benfica, Porto

Dutch - Ajax

These teams usually dominate lower table opposition, and when at home, can be priced
very low.

Super favourites can be spotted in any world wide league. Cup competitions also throw up
several super favourites, given the possibility for lower league teams to meet teams from
higher divisions (although I tend to avoid cup competitions for this strategy).
I am often discouraged from placing bets on super favourites to win. As football markets
are generally efficiently priced, this can lead to little value being gained from such bets.
This method does not seek to place bets on super favourites to win, but rather, seeks
to trade on price movements that are unique due to their involvement.

Section 3) What is this System?

Some background.Ive been a Betfair regular for many years, and I enjoy backing, laying
and trading. I feel the key to earning a good income on Betfair is not over using any one
system, but rather a portfolio of sound strategies.
As part of my trading, I have noticed various trends on Betfair, and this system discusses
one such trend which is nicely profitable.
My goal in trading is to minimise risk in every trade (stating the obvious!!)
This system aims to stay in a trade as long as possible, benefitting from the large upside
(the potential of a goal), while minimising the effects for the down side (low price
movements).
I notice two important things when super favourites play:
1. The price of the Draw can rise in the hours leading up to kick off
2. Once the game starts, the price movement of the Draw is very slow to move
downwards when the score remains at 0-0.
Why causes both of these?
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I have my own explanations.

3.1) Question 1- Why does the price of a draw often rise pre kick off?
Football tends to be an exceptionally efficient market on Betfair. After horse racing, it
is the most traded sport. As a result, there is often little opportunity to exploit a price
that is potentially under or overvalued, as inefficient pricing is not a common occurrence.
Games involving super favourites can allow for a rare exception.
When you take a price several hours before kick off, you are often entering an already
efficient market and one that generally mirrors the price of bookmakers. Several hours
before kick off, only a fraction of money is traded, but this is still classified as an
efficient market.
As kick off comes closer, more money enters, generally on the super favourite to win.
Casual punters are looking to add a super favourite to boost an accumulator. Bookmakers
can often use Betfair to reduce their liability on a super favourite.

While this late money can often reduce the super favourites price (e.g. the back price
for the super favourite might move from 1.45 to 1.42), this reduction is minimal and there
is not a huge profit opportunity.
We are more interested in the effect on the Draw price.
With this late money coming in, the price movement on the super favourite amplifies the
price movement on the Draw price as well as the price for the underdog to win. A 0.03
price movement on the super favourite to win has a larger effect on the Draw market.
By taking a price several hours before kick off, we can potentially get a far better price
for laying the Draw. As the price of the Draw often increases, by kick off, we have a
good safety cushion in place for our trade (e.g. the difference between the price of the
Draw on our early trade and the price at kick off).

3.2) Question 2- Why is the Draw price slow to move during the opening minutes?

The game kicks off, and for the opening minutes, the price movement on the Draw is slow.
This occurs for several reasons.
The following 3 scenarios look at various possible trends which can occur in the opening
minutes:
Scenario 1 - the Super Favourite starts strong
This is the most likely scenario. The super favourite looks to get in early shots and put
their stamp of authority over the perceived weaker opposition.
The opening minutes confirm the markets expectations, and as a result, it is likely that
the pre match prices will stay very stable.
Similar to scenario 3 discussed below, there is also money on the sidelines, waiting to
enter the marketplace, most likely to back the super favourite. When more money backs
the super favourite, it is effectively laying (on a staggered basis) the Draw and the
underdog, keeping both markets propped up.
In this scenario, the Draw price is kept afloat, with little price movement in the opening
minutes.

Scenario 2 - the Underdog starts strong

In games involving super favourites, the underdog can be expected to keep their
formation tight in the opening minutes and not give away cheap possession. The underdog
looks to match their opponent in the opening minutes.
The market prices all these factors in.
Football is an exceptionally efficient market, and this efficiency brings stability.
Just because a super favourite has not scored in the opening 15 minutes, this should not
significantly affect prices given there is another 75 minutes plus added time to go.
A strong start by the underdog will impact the Draw price, but only minimally, as
markets are priced very efficiently. Participants in these markets also understand
that a football game is played over a long period, and the opening 15 minutes are by
no way reflective of what will happen over the full 90 minutes.

Scenario 3 - money on the sidelines

Expanding on scenario 1, another reason for the Draw price stability is due to the money
waiting on the sidelines. A lot of traders and outright punters wait for the opening 10
minutes or so of a game, before making a bet. They prefer to judge how the game is going
before entering the market.
This bet could be on the super favourite, on a Draw or on the underdog. It doesnt matter,
it still provides for price stability on the Draw price.
The vast majority of in play trading systems I have read over the years recommend
waiting until the opening minutes of a game before entering a trade.
This is a perfectly reasonable principle, but for this system, this type of advice works to
our advantage as we are doing the opposite. The opening minutes are important, but for
many, they are a preview of how the game will fair. Expect another huge volume of trading
in the early minutes. This keeps pre match odds relatively stable, when the game remains
0-0.

Section 4) The Ideal Scenario Before Kick Off

We ideally want to enter a trade several hours before kick off by laying the Draw early.
At the time of kick off, with the majority of the money entering the market, we would
hope that the Draw price would have increased, due to the reasons outlined on pages 5
and 6.
I have an number of real life examples in the Illustrative Examples section to this ebook.
One such example was the Real Madrid and Villarreal game on February 8th 2014.
With a 7.00pm kick off, I entered the market at around 10.00am, laying the Draw at a
price of 5.8.
By kick off, the Draw price was 6.8.
We will find out how this trade ended later in Illustrative Example 3..
This is an ideal example of having a safety cushion in place for your trade.

Section 5) Entering a Trade

1)
Find a game involving a super favourite
As previously highlighted, these are generally games involving teams with odds of 1.60 or
below to win.
2)
Seek to enter a market that is deemed efficient. A rule I always follow is that the
back and lay spread must be minimal (e.g. 0.01 for the favourite, 0.2 for the Draw, and
0.2 or 0.5 for the underdog). This generally is not a problem for most football games.

3)

Lay the Draw several hours before kick off

4)
As kick off approaches, if the price of the Draw has increased, you have built a
great safety cushion. If not, you can still rely on the price of the Draw remaining stable
for the opening minutes.

5)
At kick off, using your maximum loss tolerance, calculate your exit price for the
trade, assuming the game stays at 0-0. This is referred to as a stop loss and is a very
important calculation to plan in advance.
Putting a stop loss in place before every trade allows you to set a clear objective and
enforces discipline. I usually set a stop loss of 12% on every trade.
How long does it take for the Draw price to move 12% in play? That depends on the
match and circumstances. Historically I found I could stay in the Draw market for 12
minutes, before the Draw price moved against me by more than 12%.
Over time, I found if I could build a safety cushion getting pre kick off prices, this could
extend me well beyond the 12 minutes, sometimes for as long as 25 minutes, before my
12% threshold was met. Having a trade open for this period of time, but for a relatively
small risk is a huge advantage of this system.
The Illustrative Examples will provide clear details in these areas later.

Section 6) Exiting a Trade

The below scenarios detail the three ways to close a trade and depend on the outcome of
the opening minutes of a game. These scenarios are ranked in order of preference, with
Scenario 1 providing a healthy profit, Scenario 2 providing a small loss and Scenario 3
also providing a loss.
Scenario 1) The Super Favourite scores first This
is the ideal scenario.
We have placed a lay bet on the Draw before kick off. In the opening minutes, the super
favourite lives up to expectations and scores first.
This drastically increases the in play price of the Draw, meaning that we can back the
Draw at a far higher price compared to what we laid at, allowing us to green out with a
good profit.
Illustrative Examples 1 to 4 show details of real trades involving this scenario.
Scenario 2) Game remains 0-0
This is a scenario that is most common when using this strategy.
We have laid the Draw pre kick off and hope that the price of the Draw increases
during the hours leading up to kick off. If this is the case, it will allow us to have a
safety cushion, and keep the trade open for longer until the stop loss is reached.
If the price has not increased, there is no change to the strategy.
The price movement on the Draw is slow in the opening minutes. Let the trade open until
your stop loss is reached, and then trade out.
Illustrative Examples 5 and 6 show details of real trades involving this scenario.
Scenario 3) The Underdog scores first
This is the worst case scenario and you should expect approximately a 20%-25% loss
should the underdog score first. It can happen, albeit, not too often.
If the underdog scores first, trade out immediately and take the loss.

The underdog scoring first is a rare occurrence when playing against a super favourite
and should be seen as a cost of using this strategy. In 56 trades to date, the underdog
has scored first in only 4 such trades.
Illustrative Examples 7 and 8 show details of real trades involving this scenario.
Section 7) Other Points
Lay the Draw Early
If you can lay the Draw at a price reasonably comparable to the bookmakers price, it is
very likely that you will end up building up the safety cushion (e.g. the price of the Draw
at kick off will be higher than the price you laid at). Betfair very often offers superior
prices compared to bookmakers.
Where a game has a 3pm kick off on a Saturday - why not look to get a price matched on
Betfair on Friday evening at a price that is the equivalent to the bookmakers? Should it
remain unmatched, you have all night for the opportunity to get matched, and you can
reassess the following morning. Should it be matched overnight (or partially matched),
you have a far better chance of building up a safety cushion that will keep you in the game
for longer.
Strike Rate
What strike rate can you expect with this strategy?
You cannot expect a high strike rate with this strategy. This is a strategy I have been
using for a number of years, but have only kept detailed records since January 2014. In
this timeframe, I have entered 56 trades, with 23 winning trades, which equates to a
41% strike rate.
You pay a small price for being in the market (unless the underdog scores first) and if a
super favourite scores first, the wins are big, and easily make up for several losses. The
Draw Price
What price range should you lay the Draw at?
As low as possible is the obvious answer! The majority of my trades have a price range of
between 3.5 and 7
The lower the price of the Draw, the slower the market tends to move.

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If a draw price is at 11.0, the price tends to move downwards quicker than, say, a price
of 4.2. In my experience, the optimum price is between 3.5 and 6.0.

How Long to Stay in the Market?

This depends on your stop loss - see below.
With my normal stop loss, I find I can stay in a trade for 10-15 minutes before the prices
move beyond my comfort zone.
With a good pre match safety cushion, the trade can be kept open a lot longer - sometimes
for an additional 10 minutes depending on the size of the safety cushion.
The Stop Loss
What % should you set your stop loss at?
The stop loss is the maximum amount you are willing to lose as a result of no goal being
scored in the opening minutes.
The larger the stop loss, the longer your trade stays open, and vice versa.
I usually keep mine at 12%.
Should you let a trade go beyond your stop loss?
I rarely allow this, however, if I am watching a game, and see the super favourite well on
top, and sense a goal, I might let the trade open for another couple of minutes. This is a
rarity, and I find once the 25 minute mark is exceeded, the Draw price tends to drop
more drastically.
Bank Size
I enter each trade with a 100 lay stake. You may notice from the Illustrative Examples
that this leads to a large liability when the trade is open.
However, remember you are trading out, so this is not your true liability.
My liability is based on the 100.
If I have a winning trade, where the super favourite scores first, I can expect around
50+ profit, which gives me a 50% return on my investment.

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If the game remains at 0-0 and I need to trade out, my loss is around 12% of the 100.
If the underdog scores first, I can expect a loss is the region of 20% to 30% on my 100.
I keep a bank size sufficiently large enough to cover my liability for a 100 lay stake on
odds of usually between 3.5 and 8.0.
Trading Out and Greening Up
If you do not know how to trade out of a position, and green up, then I suggest you Google
search these terms and become familiar. This system requires a foundation knowledge of
very basic trading and Betfair. Software is not mandatory for this system.
Results to Date
I have entered 56 trades since Jan 2014.
-

23 have been winning trades, giving me a profit of 1,104

29 trades have seen no goal which has forced me to trade out with a loss of 372

4 trades have seen the underdog score first, leading to a loss of 124 This has

given me a total profit to date of 608

Section 8) Illustrative Examples

The Illustrative Examples are detailed in the following pages. Below is a summary of the
outcome of each.
Number

Outcome

Profit (Before
Commission)

Super favourite scored early. Traded out for

51.41

a profit
2

Super favourite scored early. Traded out for

a profit

52.00

Super favourite scored early. Traded out for

a profit

53.60

12

Super favourite scored early. Traded out for

a profit

58.75

Game remained 0-0. Stop loss reached.

11.62

Traded out for a small loss

6

Game remained 0-0. Stop loss reached.

Traded out for a small loss

12.00

Underdog scored first. Traded out for a loss

26.83

Underdog scored first. Traded out for a loss

39.86

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jackbarronuk@gmail.com

Illustrative Example Game 1

Manchester City v West Brom
Date and Kick Off Time - 21 April 2014/ 8pm
Pre-match Trade - Laid the Draw at 6.80 for 100 at 10.24am
Price of the Draw at Kick Off - 7.40
Stop Loss Price - 6.10 - rounded down to 6.00 - once this price is hit, I trade out
With Manchester City opening with a 1.22 super favourite price, the bookmakers set a
price of 6.50 for the Draw, and I was happy to get a price matched slightly above it. As
expected, the price of the draw rose on the build up to kick off.
Below is a screenshot from the Betfair market minutes before kick off.

Outcome - After 3 minutes Zabaleta scored, giving an instant profit. The Draw price
rose to 14.0, which I happily traded out for a 51.41 profit (before commission)
regardless of the outcome.

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jackbarronuk@gmail.com

Illustrative Example Game Chelsea v Sunderland

Date and Kick Off Time - 20 April 2014/ 5.30pm
Pre-match Trade - Laid the Draw at 7.20 for 100 at 6.54am
Price of the Draw at Kick Off - 7.80
Stop Loss Price - 6.46 - rounded down to 6.40 - once this price is hit, I trade out
Chelsea opened with a 1.24 super favourite price and the bookmakers set a price of 7.00
for the Draw. As I got a price matched so early, I thought the Draw price would rise
more before kick off. However, I was still glad of the increase.

Outcome - 12 minutes in and Etoo scores, probably a minute or two before I trade out.
The Draw price rose to 15.0, which I happily traded out for a 52 profit (before
commission) regardless of the outcome.

3
Real Madrid v Villarreal
Date and Kick Off Time - 8 February 2014/ 8.00pm

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jackbarronuk@gmail.com

Illustrative Example Game Pre-match Trade - Laid the Draw at 5.80 for 100 at 10.11am
Price of the Draw at Kick Off - 6.80
Stop Loss Price - 6.11 - rounded up to 6.20 - once this price is hit, I trade out
This was one of the earlier trades and one where I built up an excellent safety cushion
of
1.0.

Outcome - With Bale scoring after 6 minutes, the trade is an instant winner. The Draw
price barely fluctuated in this time frame. At 1-0, the Draw price rose to 12.5, and I
traded out for a 53.60 profit (before commission).

4
Hertha Berlin v Bayern Munich
Date and Kick Off Time - 25 March 2014/ 7.00pm
Pre-match Trade - Laid the Draw at 6.60 for 100 at 8.50am
Price of the Draw at Kick Off - 7.40

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Illustrative Example Game Stop Loss Price - 5.88 - rounded up to 5.90 - once this price is hit, I trade out
This was a game I was expecting Munich to attack right from the start and got an early
lay for a good safety cushion.

Outcome - Kroos scored after 6 minutes, making no need for the safety cushion.
Interestingly, as the market reopened at 1-0, I looked to get a price matched at 14.0,
but saw 16.0 available as the market was starting to resettle. Getting this matched, I
traded out for a 58.75 profit (before commission).

5
Juventus v Parma
Date and Kick Off Time - 26 March 2014/ 7.45pm
Pre-match Trade - Laid the Draw at 4.8 for 100 at 12.50pm
Price of the Draw at Kick Off - 5.00
Stop Loss Price - 4.34 - rounded down to 4.30 - once this price is hit, I trade out
I laid at a price relatively close to the bookmakers and expected the pre-match price to
increase higher than 5.00. Unfortunately it failed to do so.

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Illustrative Example Game -

Outcome - There was a quiet start to the game. I find the prices are always slow to
move in Italian games. However, by the 12th minute, my stop loss was reached and I
traded out for a 11.63 loss.

6
Kilmarnock v Celtic
Date and Kick Off Time - 14 March 2014/ 7.45pm
Pre-match Trade - Laid the Draw at 5.60 for 100 at 2.19pm
Price of the Draw at Kick Off - 6.40
Stop Loss Price - 5.05 - rounded down to 5.00 - once this price is hit, I trade out With
a great safety net in place, I was expecting a strong start from Celtic.

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jackbarronuk@gmail.com

Illustrative Example Game Outcome - A surprising quiet start to the game forced me to trade out with a 12.00
loss, once my stop loss was hit.

7
Cardiff v Liverpool
Date and Kick Off Time - 22 March 2014/ 3pm
Pre-match Trade - Laid the Draw at 5.20 for 100 at 6.50am
Price of the Draw at Kick Off - 5.70
Stop Loss Price - 4.69 - rounded up to 4.70 - once this price is hit, I trade out
I expected Liverpool to attack this game from the start and was very happy with my prematch safety cushion.

Outcome - Surprisingly after 9 minutes, Cardiff scored, which resulted in me having to

trade out for a loss. At 1-0, I traded out at 4.10 for a 26.83 loss.

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Illustrative Example Game -

8
Galatasaray v Kasimpasa
Date and Kick Off Time - 19 April 2014/ 6pm
Pre-match Trade - Laid the Draw at 4.00 for 100 at 12.50pm
Price of the Draw at Kick Off - 4.20
Stop Loss Price - 3.61 - rounded up to 3.60 - once this price is hit, I trade out.
My first venture into Turkish football. I noticed a sluggish price movement on the Draw
price in the build up to kick off and only achieved the minimal safety cushion.

Outcome - 7 minutes in, and Kasimpasa score, forcing me to trade out with a loss of
39.86 and experiencing a painful debut in Turkish football. This is an example of a
terrible trade and the trade out loss is larger than normal due to me not understanding
the market movements of the Turkish league. Larger leagues price movements are far
easier to predict and tend to be less volatile.

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Illustrative Example Game -

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