Professional Documents
Culture Documents
RETAIL RESEARCH
USD/INR
ST Trend of US$
65.950
Up
Target
Reversal
Prev. Close
Supports
Resistances
66.50
65.10
65.019
65.46-65.10
66.50-67.10
14/08
21/08
% chg
65.019
72.255
101.697
1.909
1.111
124.276
65.950
75.164
103.464
1.847
1.138
122.000
1.43
4.03
1.74
-3.25
2.43
-1.83
28067.31 27366.07
8518.55 8299.95
-2.50
-2.57
Currencies
Dollar (USD-INR)
Euro (EUR-INR)
Pound (GBP-INR)
Yen (INR JPY)
EUR-USD
USD JPY
Equities
Sensex
Nifty
Debt
3 mth T - Bill (%)
GS 7.72.2025
7.27
7.75
7.44
7.78
2.34
0.39
Foreign Markets
The dollar fell broadly on Friday, dropping to a two-month low against the euro, as weak factory data from
economic giant China added to doubts the Federal Reserve will raise U.S. interest rates next month.
Chinese manufacturing activity shrank at its fastest pace in 6-1/2 years in August, compounding investor concerns
over slowing growth in the world's No. 2 economy and its potential impact on global growth.
Markets had been reckoning that a solid U.S. economy could prompt the Fed to raise rates for the first time in
nearly ten years as soon as September.
However, weak Chinese data, sliding commodity prices and unconvincing U.S. inflation data have poured cold water
on expectations of a near-term U.S. rate hike. Higher rates would raise borrowing costs for consumers and
companies, possibly hurting spending and economic growth.
RETAIL RESEARCH
The euro, which is used as a "funding" currency borrowed to buy riskier but higher-yielding emerging market
currencies, topped $1.13 as investors reversed such trades and bought it back. That level for euro, last trading
against the dollar at $1.1282, was last seen in late June.
Against the yen, which is also used as a funding currency and is a more traditional safe haven, the dollar fell to its
weakest in six weeks.
Outlook
Receding expectations for the Fed to raise rates at its coming meeting on Sept. 16-17 wields the potential to
weaken the dollar further over the short run.
Data showing euro zone business growth unexpectedly accelerating this month gave the euro a brief boost, but
most investors reckon external factors are more important drivers at the moment.
Coming to the Indian Rupee, foreign flows will remain a key factor in the near-term for markets. Technically, the
USDINR pair remains in uptrend and could target the 66.5 levels in the coming week.
Country
Event
Bloomberg
Estimate
Previous Level
27-Aug-2015
USA
Jobless Claims
270k
277k
27-Aug-2015
USA
3.2%
2.3%
28-Aug-2015
India
31-Aug-2015
India
3%
Top Traded USDINR Currency Options for the previous trading session (21-08-2015)
Option
No of Contracts traded
3,30,340
2,92,148
RETAIL RESEARCH
USD/INR
GBP/INR
EUR/INR
Yen/INR
65.830
103.386
74.269
53.550
0.91
1.15
2.34
1.83
1.09
1.74
2.36
2.29
3.42
4.29
7.78
4.65
The week gone by saw the EURINR rallying sharply after consolidating in the early part of the week. In the process,
the pair remains in a short term uptrend.
Technical indicators continue to give positive signals as the pair trades above the 13-day SMA. Momentum readings
too are in rising mode and are not yet overbought. While the short term trend of the pair remains up, the pair could
move higher in the near term once the immediate resistances of 75.5 are crossed.
RETAIL RESEARCH
RETAIL RESEARCH