Aug 03, 2015

Indian Currency Market A Weekly Perspective

RETAIL RESEARCH

USD/INR

ST Trend of US$

64.11

Up

Target

Reversal

Prev. Close

Supports

Resistances

64.32

63.24

64.068

63.82-63.75

64.17-64.32

24/07

31/07

% chg

64.068
70.352
99.337
1.929
1.098
123.790

64.110
70.441
100.130
1.929
1.098
123.850

0.07
0.13
0.80
0.00
0.00
0.05

28112.31 28114.56
8521.55 8532.85

0.01
0.13

Currencies
Dollar (USD-INR)
Euro (EUR-INR)
Pound (GBP-INR)
Yen (INR JPY)
EUR-USD
USD JPY

Equities
Sensex
Nifty

Debt
3 mth T - Bill (%)
GS 8.4 2024

7.48
7.83

7.48
7.81

0.00
-0.26

Source: Bloomberg & SEBI

The week gone by

The Indian Rupee lost last week. W-o-W, the USDINR gained 0.07%.

Foreign Markets
The dollar fell against a basket of currencies on Friday, ending a decent month on a sour note as a record-low rise
in U.S. employment costs in the second quarter dialled back bets the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates later
this year.
The euro rebounded strongly against the greenback following Thursday's losses in the wake of encouraging inflation
data in the euro zone.
A near 1 percent drop in Brent crude oil prices hurt the Norwegian crown, Australian dollar and other commoditylinked currencies, but they turned higher as the greenback stumbled on the disappointing 0.2 percent gain in labor
costs in the second quarter.

RETAIL RESEARCH

Outlook
Some analysts had reckoned a rise of at least 0.5 percent in the employment cost index would seal the deal for the
Fed to hike rates, perhaps as early as September.
Fed policy-makers have been concerned about the absence of wage pressure even as the jobless rate hit its lowest
in over seven years in June. The latest ECI reading also tempered the optimism from Thursday's report on secondquarter U.S. growth. A stronger-than-forecast report on U.S. Midwest factory activity removed some of the sting
from the ECI report.
The next big moment for the greenback will be the July U.S. jobs report. The trend of dollar strength will probably
continue heading into the U.S. jobs data this week.
Coming to the Indian Rupee, foreign flows will remain a key factor in the near-term for markets. Technically, the
USDINR pair remains in uptrend and could target the 64.32 levels in the coming week.

Upcoming Major Macro Events

Date

Country

Event

Bloomberg
Estimate

04-Aug-2015

India

RBI Third Bi-monthly Monetary Policy Statement

06-Aug-2015

USA

Jobless Claims

12-Aug-2015

India

CPI Inflation - Combined (YoY Chg)

Previous Level

273k

267k

5.4%

Top Traded USDINR Currency Options for the previous trading session (31-07-2015)
Option

No of Contracts traded

USDINR Call 65.0 Strike Price

84,566

USDINR Put 64.0 Strike Price

69,768

RBI Reference Rate:

Lst Close (31-07)

Daily % Chg
Weekly % Chg
Monthly % Chg

RETAIL RESEARCH

USD/INR

GBP/INR

EUR/INR

Yen/INR

64.005

99.836

70.163

51.550

0.00

0.01

0.13

0.04

0.18

0.74

0.06

-0.02

0.39

-0.28

-1.46

-1.00

The EUR/INR pair (Daily chart) Technical View

The week gone by saw the EURINR in correction mode after rallying higher in the previous week. Technical
indicators are nevertheless giving positive signals as the pair trades above the 13-day SMA. Momentum readings too
are in rising mode and are not yet overbought. Further upsides for the EURINR pair are likely once the immediate
resistances of 71.4 are taken out.
Analyst: Subash Gangadharan (subash.gangadharan@hdfcsec.com)

HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building B, Alpha, Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opposite Crompton
Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400042, Fax: (022) 30753435
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information contained herein is from sources believed reliable. We do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. We
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This report has been prepared by the Retail Research team of HDFC Securities Ltd. The views, opinions, estimates, ratings, target price, entry prices and/or
other parameters mentioned in this document may or may not match or may be contrary with those of the other Research teams (Institutional, PCG) of HDFC
Securities Ltd.

RETAIL RESEARCH