083 Peter Tavner Reliability I

An Introduction to Reliability from the Point
of View of Onshore & Offshore Wind Farms

Peter Tavner
Emeritus Professor, Durham University, UK
Past President, European Academy of Wind Energy
One has to learn to consider causes rather than symptoms of

undesirable events and avoid uncritical attitudes
Alessandro Birolini
NTNU, EU FR7 MARE WINT Project

September 2013
Keynotes
Reliability definitions;
Random & continuous variables;
Reliability probability distributions;
Reliability theory;
Wind Farm example;
Difference between machinery and structural
reliability;
Reliability block diagrams & wind turbine taxonomy.

September 2013
Definitions
Reliability: probability that a part can perform its intended function for
a specified interval under stated conditions.
Definition breaks into four essential elements:

Probability;
Adequate performance;
Time or the random variable;
Operating conditions.
Definition experiences difficulties as a measure for continuously operated

systems that can tolerate failures, the measure for these systems is:
Availability, probability of finding a system in the operating state at

some time into the future.
Probability of failure p(x) for continuous probability or P(X) for probability of a

discrete failure;
Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) of failure probabilities;
Probability distribution function (PDF) of failures f(x or X);
Failure intensity or hazard rate, l(t), the frequency of failures, which varies
with time, failures/unit/hr;
NTNU,
EUwhen
FR7 MARE
Project hr-1;
Failure rate, l, the special
case
l(t) WINT
= constant,
September 2013
Other Definitions
Mean Time Between Failures, MTBF or q=1/ l, hr, Under
hypothesis of minimal repair, which brings machine back
to condition before failure, TBF, is time measured from
instant of installation of machine to instant after first
failure, when machine available again for operation.
Average of that and successive TBFs is MTBF and can be
averaged over a number of machines in a population.
MTBF is the sum of the MTTF and MTTR;
Mean Time To Repair, MTTR or 1/m, hr, Time To Repair
measured from instant of first failure to instant when the
machine is available for operation again. MTTR is average
of that and successive TTRs and can be averaged over a
number of machines in a population;
Mean Time To Failure, MTTF or 1/ l, hr, expected value
of that and successive TTFs. Does not include TTR as a
result of a failure;
September 2013
MTBF, MTTF, MTTR

Availability, A=MTTF/MTBF, Inherent
Operability
100%
MTBF
MTTF
0%
MTTR
Time
5
September 2013
MTBF, MTTF, MTTR

Availability, A=MTTF/MTBF, Operational
Operability
100%
MTBF
Logistic delay
time
MTTF or MTBM
0%
MTTR
Time
6
September 2013
Availability & Reliability of a

Whole Wind Turbine
Mean Time To Failure,
MTTF
Mean Time to Repair, or downtime
MTTR
Mean Time Between Failures
MTBF
MTBFMTTF
MTBFMTTF+MTTR=1/l +1/ m
MTBF=MTTF+MTTR+LogisticDelay Time
Failure rate, l
l = 1/MTBF
Repair rate, m
m=1/MTTR
Manufacturers or Inherent Availability,
A=(MTBF-MTTR)/MTBF=1-(l/m)
Operators or Technical Availability,
A=MTTF/MTBF < 1-(l/m)
Note that these are all expressed in terms of the variable time.
September 2013
Cost of Energy, COE

COE, /kWh=
(ICCFCR + O&M)/AEP
ICC=Initial Capital Cost,
FCR=Fixed Charge Rate, interest, %
O&M=Annual Cost of Operations & Maintenance,
AEP=Annualised Energy Production, kWh
COE , /kWh =
(ICCFCR + O&M(l, 1/m))/AEP(A(1/l, m)}
Reduce failure rate l, Reliability MTBF ,1/l , & Availability, A, improve,

O&M cost reduces;
Reduce Downtime MTTR, Maintainability, m, & Availability, A, improve,
O&M cost reduces;
Therefore COE, reduces
September 2013
Capacity Factor, Availability, Cost of

Energy, COE
Energy generated in a year = C x Turbine rating x 8760
Capacity Factor, C
8760: number of hours in a year
Therefore C = Energy generated in a year / Turbine rating x 8760
C incorporates the Availability, A
Availability, A=1-MTTR/MTBF, where MTBF, q=1/l & MTTR=1/m
Capacity Factor, C
Availability, A
Onshore
27.3%
97%
Early offshore
29.5%
80%
Typical UK values
Typical EU values
Vattenfall onshore
target
Offshore
Vattenfall offshore
target
98%
36%
90%
95%
COE:
Onshore 30-40/MWh
Offshore 69-120/MWh
Mission Oriented or
Repairable
Mission oriented
Repairable

September 2013
10
Continuous & Random

Variables in Reliability Theory
Examples of useful Continuous or Discrete Variables
(x or X):
Elapsed time in service , t;
Calendar time, tc;
Time on Test, tT;
Energy produced, E;
Examples of useful Random Variables:
Continuous failure intensity or hazard rate, l(t);
Censored failure rate, lt, , lE;
MTBF, q;
MTTF, m;
September 2013
11
Issues About the Variables

The random variable in this context are the failures
recorded against a Continuous or Discrete variable x or X.
Is it always appropriate to use Calendar Time, tc, as x?
Calendar Time is convenient but not necessarily best;
Time on Test, tT, or cycles may seem more appropriate;
Turbine rotations may also be more appropriate
especially for the aerodynamic and transmission failures;
Or GWh, E, of the turbine may also be more appropriate,
especially for electrical failures.
Usually operators cannot measure the Time on Test, they
measure the number of failures in an interval of time
That is censored, discrete data
September 2013
12
Reliability of a Component:
Occurrence of Failures, Non-repairable
Example, a Gearbox High Speed Bearing
Failures
Calendar Time,
Meaningless,
start times not
controlled
Calendar Time, tc
Failures
Total Time on Test,
Meaningful
Failures
Time on Test, tT
Meaningful,
But different
Continuous
Variable
Revolutions, N
13
Discrete Variable, Tc
Random Variable, lt or lE
Censored Data, same in both graphs

September 2013
14
Continuous Variable, tT
Random Variable, l(t),

September 2013
15
What Does This Show Us?

That the method of collecting data is important
The choice of Continuous or Discrete variable, x or X, against
which the Random Variable to be collected is important
Should it be Calendar Time, Time of Test, GWh or rotations
Plotting failures against different x or X reveals different
information
Whether the component on which the data is being collected is
repairable or non-repairable
If data collection method is good and variable chosen
appropriately then the statistical data collected should yield robust
reliability information
If not the reliability information may be faulty
Now we can consider the mathematics of the data distribution.

September 2013
16
Discrete Random Variables:

Probability Distribution
Function
There is a probability that a wind turbine will experience failures during

its life cycle.
Failures are the Discrete Random Variable being counted against X the
intervals, months, of the life.
The probability of each failure during the first 5 months of operation
could be determined experimentally from the field. Suppose that these
probabilities are:
P(X= 1) = 0.6561
P(X= 2) = 0.2916
P(X= 3) = 0.0486
P(X= 4) = 0.0036
P(X= 5) = 0.0001
Note that the data is censored into 5 equal monthly periods, starting
from 1st month.
This gives the Probability Distribution Function (PDF)
September 2013
17
Graphical Representation of
Failure: Probability Distribution
Function
A graphical representation of
the Probability Distribution
Function (PDF) of failures f(X)
is shown in the Figure against
x.
Probability of
failure
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1
Month
Definition:
The Probability Distribution Function of the Discrete Random
Variable is the probability of failure in each specified censored
interval of the variable X.
For a discrete random variable f with n possible values at

x1, x2,xn, therefore the Probability Mass Function, f(xi), is
expressed as:
f(xi) = P(X= xi)
September 2013
18
It is useful to be able to
express the cumulative
probability such as P(X x) in
terms of a formula.
The formula for an
accumulation of probabilities is
called a Cumulative
Distribution Function (CDF).
Cumulative Probability
of Failure
Cumulative Distribution
Function
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1
Month
Definition:
The Cumulative Distribution Function is an analytical method
for describing the Probability Distribution Function of a
Discrete Random Variable.
Therefore the Cumulative Distribution Function F(x) is

expressed as:
F(x) = P(X x) = f(xi)
where xi x
September 2013
19
Binomial Discrete
Distribution
Consider carrying out a random experiment consisting of n
repeated and independent trials:
Each trial results in only two outcomes, success or failure;
The probability of a success in each trial, p, remains constant.
An example of such a random experiment could be the

monitoring of failures (i.e. operation or non-operation) at
predefined intervals of a critical component such as a bearing
in a gearbox.
Definition:
The random variable X that equals the number of trials that
result in a success has a binomial distribution with parameters
p and n= 1, 2, 3,
The probability mass function of X is:
RELIAWIND Training Course,

LM Wind Power Blades, Kolding Denmark
20 of 36
Graphical Representation of a
Binomial Distribution
Binomial distribution for selected values of n and p

September 2013
21
Poisson Discrete
Distribution
Consider the operation of a wind turbine over a period of one year:

The number of failures of that turbine per increment of interval X is
the probability of failure in successive intervals.
If that probability of failure, P, is constant, then the turbine operation
over each interval is independent of operation in previous intervals.
Then probability P has a Binomial Distribution with respect to the
discrete random variable X.
Suppose that a constant, l, equals the average value of failures in that
month. If the variance of the failures also equal l, then the random
experiment is called a Poisson Process.
Definition:
A Poisson Distribution can be used as an approximation of the
Binomial Distribution when the number of observations is large and
the probability of failure is low.
It can be represented by the equation below where x=0,1,2,3, is
the number of failures.
e- l l x
limn P( X = x) =
, x = 0,1, 2,...
x!
September 2013
22
Graphical Representation of
Poisson Distributions

September 2013
23
Examples of Poisson
Distributions
Average monthly Failure Rate and Wind Energy Index

for each of the 12 months over the Survey period
(1994~2004)
This Figure, shows the

variation, for a large
population of Danish wind
turbines averaged over the
year for 10 years of:
Wind Energy Index
Turbine failures
The histogram suggests that
they could both be
approximated by a Poisson
Distribution.
Poisson Distributions play a special role in Reliability Theory since

under broad conditions they describe the phenomenon of catastrophic
failure in complex systems.
September 2013
24
Observation on Poisson
Distributions
Poisson Distribution defines a random variable to be a certain

interval during which a number of failures occurred.
The continuous variable is of interest, because it could be for
example Calendar Time, Time on Test , GWh produced or turbine
rotations.
If the continuous variable is Calendar Time, it could be a month or
quarter or year.
Let the continuous variable, x ,denote the duration from any starting
point until a failure is detected or in general denote the duration
between successive failures in a Poisson Process.
The starting point for measuring x doesnt matter because the
probability of the number of failures in a Poisson Process depends
only on the length of the interval not on the value of x.
If the mean number of failures is l per interval, then x has an
Exponential Distribution with parameter l
September 2013
25
Exponential Continuous Distribution

Definition:
The random variable X that equals the distance between successive
counts of a Poisson Process with mean l > 0 has an exponential
distribution with parameter l.
Therefore the probability density function of X is:
Exponential Distributions play a key role

in practical computations;
In many cases the interval between two
successive failures in a complex system,
such as a wind turbine, obeys an
Exponential Distribution.

September 2013
26
Weibull Continuous Distribution

Definition:
The random variable X with probability density function
has a Weibull distribution with scale parameter > 0 and shape parameter
> 0.
The Weibull Distribution can be used to model the
time until failure of many different physical
systems.
The parameters in the distribution provide a great
deal of flexibility to model systems in which:
Number of failures increases with time, for
example bearing wear or thermal aging;
Number of failures decreases with time, for
example early failures;
Number of failures remains constant with time,
for example random failures at the bottom of the
bath tub, caused for example by random external
shocks to the system.
September 2013
27
Use of the Weibull Distribution

Customer Returns to an Inverter Manufacturer

September 2013
28
Use of the Weibull Distribution

Customer Returns to an Inverter Manufacturer
Date of production
move to China
The graphical calculation

of shape and scale
parameters
Example of Bi-Weibull: two

interpolating lines fit better the Weibull
chart

September 2013
29
What are the Uses of Distributions
Distributions can model different failure mechanisms.

Failure mechanisms are the essential physics of failure linkage between
cause and effect and in wind turbines include:
Mechanical mechanisms:
o Fatigue due to aeroelastic behaviour;
o Fatigue due to gear meshing;
o Failure due to random shock.
Electrical mechanisms:
o Thermal aging;
o Thermo-mechanical cycling fatigue in electromechanical
components;
o Thermo-mechanical fatigue stress in power electronic
components.
Operational Factors
o Elimination of early teething problems;
o Change of component.
Each represented by different failure probability distributions.
The ability to distinguish between them allows faults to be detected.
September 2013
30
General Reliability Functions
The following equations and mathematical relationships between the

various reliability functions do not assume any specific failure
distribution and are equally applicable to all probability distributions
used in reliability evaluation.
Consider N0 identical components are tested:
Ns(t) = number surviving at time t
Nf(t) = number failed at time t
Therefore Ns(t) + Nf(t) = No
At any time t the survivor or reliability function, R(t), is given by

R(t)=Ns(t)/No
Similarly the probability of failure or Cumulative Distribution Function or

unreliability function , Q(t), is given by
Q(t)=Nf(t)/No
Where R(t)=1-Q(t)

September 2013
31
General Reliability Functions

Failure Density Function f(t) is given
by:
f(t)=1/N0(dNf(t)/dt)
Failure Intensity or Hazard Rate, (t),
is the Failure Density Function, f(t),
normalised to the number of survivors:
l(t)= (dNf(t)/dt)/Ns(t)
l(t)= (dR(t)/dt)/R(t)

September 2013
32
Failure Density Function
Terminology of Distributions
R(t) = 1-Q(t)
Hypothetical failure Probability Mass Function:
Q(t), Cumulative Failure Distribution in time t,

unreliability
R(t), Survivor Function in time t,
reliability
Hazard rate / Failure rate

number of failures per unit time
l (t ) =
number of components exposed to failure
The total area under the failure

density function must be unity.

September 2013
33
Wind Farm Example

Time
interval,
years
Totals
Number of
failures in each
interval, N
Failure
Number of
density
survivors, Ns function, f(t)
Cumulative
failures, Nf
Unreliability
function or
cumulative
failure
distribution,
Q(t)
Reliability or Failure intensity

survivor
or hazard rate,
function, R(t)
l (t)
240
1000
0.240
0.000
1.000
0.240
140
240
760
0.140
0.240
0.760
0.184
90
380
620
0.090
0.380
0.620
0.145
58
470
530
0.058
0.470
0.530
0.109
40
528
472
0.040
0.528
0.472
0.085
23
568
432
0.023
0.568
0.432
0.053
18
591
409
0.018
0.591
0.409
0.044
13
609
391
0.013
0.609
0.391
0.033
13
622
378
0.013
0.622
0.378
0.034
13
635
365
0.013
0.635
0.365
0.036
10
16
648
352
0.016
0.648
0.352
0.045
11
18
664
336
0.018
0.664
0.336
0.054
12
20
682
318
0.020
0.682
0.318
0.063
13
30
702
298
0.030
0.702
0.298
0.101
14
60
732
268
0.060
0.732
0.268
0.224
15
63
792
208
0.063
0.792
0.208
0.303
16
65
855
145
0.065
0.855
0.145
0.448
17
70
920
80
0.070
0.920
0.080
0.875
18
10
990
10
0.010
0.990
0.010
1.000
19
1000
0.000
1000

September 2013
34
Wind Farm Example

September 2013
35
Bathtub Curve
Failure
Intensity,
Total number of failures
Turbine Population
la =
Operating Period (years)
Most turbines
lie here
l( t ) = e
- t
Time, t
Early Life
( < 1)
Useful Life
( = 1)
Wear-out Period
( > 1)

September 2013
36
Bathtub Curve
Failure
Select more reliable components
Intensity, More rigorous
Preventive maintenance
pre-testing
l
Reliability Centred Maintenance
Condition Based Maintenance
Major sub-assembly
changeout
Time, t
Early Life
( < 1)
Useful Life
( = 1)
Wear-out Period
( > 1)

September 2013
37
To Summarise
The Regions I, II & III can be identified in both
Failure Density Function & Hazard Rate or Failure
Intensity Function.
Region II can be represented by an Exponential
Distribution.
Region III can be represented by a Weibull
Distribution.
The Hazard Rate is in the shape of the Bath Tub
Curve.

September 2013
38
Root Causes and Failure Modes

Example: Main Shaft Failure
Failure mode
Main shaft failure
How?
Why?
Root
cause
analysis
Fracture
High cycle fatigue
Deformation
Corrosion
Low cycle fatigue

or overload
Misalignment
SCADA
analysis
CM and
diagnosis
Root Causes
39
Series Systems
Consider a System consisting of two independent components A and B
connected in series, for example a gear train.
Let Ra and Rb be the probability of successful operation of components A and
B respectively.
Let Qa and Qb be the probability of failure of components A and B
respectively.
n
R s=
R
i =1
Rs=Ra*Rb if generalised
This equation is referred as the Product Rule of reliability.
Example:
A gearbox consists of 6 successive identical gear wheels, all of which
must work for system success. What is the system reliability if each
gearwheel has a reliability of 0.95?
From the Product Rule: Rs=0.956=0.7350
September 2013
40
Parallel Systems
Consider a system consisting of two independent components A and B,
connected in parallel, for example to lubrication oil pumps for a gearbox
connected in parallel.
From a reliability point of view the requirement is
that only one component has to be working for
system success.
Example:
A system consists of four pumps in parallel each having reliabilities of
0.99, 0.95, 0.98 and 0.97. What is the reliability and unreliability of the
system?
Qp=(1-0.99)(1-0.95)(1-0.98)(1-0.97)=3x10-7
Rp = 1- Qp =0.9999997
September 2013
41
Network Modelling and

Evaluation of Simple
Systems
Series systems:
Components are said to be in series, from a
reliability point of view, if they must all work for
system success and only one needs to fail for
system failure.
Parallel systems:
The components in a set are said to be in
parallel, from reliability point of view, if only
one needs to be working for system success
or all must fail for system failure.

September 2013
42
Conclusions
Definitions in reliability are important;

Remember MTBF, MTTR & Availability
MTTR is as important as MTBF;
Availability definition standardisation is important;
Note difference between Inherent & Operational
Availability;
Definition of Cost of Energy, CoEoffshore> CoEonshore
Reliability modelling can make use of distributions;
Series & parallel arrangemennts and redundancy are
important;
Wind Turbine Taxonomy is important.
September 2013
43
References
P. J. Tavner, Offshore Wind Turbines, Reliability, Availability &
Maintenance, IET Renewables Series, 2012
D.C. Montgomery, G.C. Runger, Applied Statistics and Probability
for Engineers, J. Wiley & Sons, 1999, ISBN 0-471-17027-5.
S.E.Rigdon, A.P. Basu : Statistical Methods for the Reliability of
Repairable Systems, John Wiley & Sons, New York, 2000
R. Billinton and R.N. Allan, Reliability Evaluation of Engineering
Systems, Plenum publishing corporation,1992, ISBN 0-30644063-6.
A Birolini, Reliability Engineering, Theory & Practice, Springer,
New York, 2007, ISBN 978-3-540-49388-4
B.V. Gnedenko, Yu.K. Belyaev, and A.D. Solovyev Mathematical
Methods of Reliability Theory, Academic Press, 1969, ISBN 0-12287250-9.
F Spinato, Reliability of Wind Turbines, PhD, Durham University,
2008

September 2013
44

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083 Peter Tavner Reliability I

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An Introduction to Reliability from the Point

of View of Onshore & Offshore Wind Farms

One has to learn to consider causes rather than symptoms of

NTNU, EU FR7 MARE WINT Project

NTNU, EU FR7 MARE WINT Project

Definition breaks into four essential elements:

Definition experiences difficulties as a measure for continuously operated

Availability, probability of finding a system in the operating state at

Probability of failure p(x) for continuous probability or P(X) for probability of a

MTBF, MTTF, MTTR

MTBF, MTTF, MTTR

Availability & Reliability of a

Cost of Energy, COE

Reduce failure rate l, Reliability MTBF ,1/l , & Availability, A, improve,

Capacity Factor, Availability, Cost of

NTNU, EU FR7 MARE WINT Project

Continuous & Random

Issues About the Variables

NTNU, EU FR7 MARE WINT Project

NTNU, EU FR7 MARE WINT Project

What Does This Show Us?

Now we can consider the mathematics of the data distribution.

Discrete Random Variables:

There is a probability that a wind turbine will experience failures during

For a discrete random variable f with n possible values at

Therefore the Cumulative Distribution Function F(x) is

An example of such a random experiment could be the

The probability mass function of X is:

RELIAWIND Training Course,

Binomial distribution for selected values of n and p

Consider the operation of a wind turbine over a period of one year:

NTNU, EU FR7 MARE WINT Project

Average monthly Failure Rate and Wind Energy Index

This Figure, shows the

Poisson Distributions play a special role in Reliability Theory since

Poisson Distribution defines a random variable to be a certain

Exponential Continuous Distribution

Exponential Distributions play a key role

NTNU, EU FR7 MARE WINT Project

Weibull Continuous Distribution

Use of the Weibull Distribution

NTNU, EU FR7 MARE WINT Project

Use of the Weibull Distribution

The graphical calculation

Example of Bi-Weibull: two

NTNU, EU FR7 MARE WINT Project

What are the Uses of Distributions

Distributions can model different failure mechanisms.

General Reliability Functions

The following equations and mathematical relationships between the

Therefore Ns(t) + Nf(t) = No

At any time t the survivor or reliability function, R(t), is given by

Similarly the probability of failure or Cumulative Distribution Function or

NTNU, EU FR7 MARE WINT Project

General Reliability Functions

NTNU, EU FR7 MARE WINT Project

Failure Density Function

Hypothetical failure Probability Mass Function:

Q(t), Cumulative Failure Distribution in time t,

Hazard rate / Failure rate

The total area under the failure

NTNU, EU FR7 MARE WINT Project

Wind Farm Example