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Residential Mortgage
UK
Default Drivers Among UK
Special Report Residential Mortgage Loans
Analysts Summary
Atanasios Mitropoulos Fitch Ratings has carried out an extensive analysis of the key drivers of default risk
+44 20 7417 4317
atanasios.mitropoulos@fitchratings.com
among UK mortgage loans. The agency has assembled a unique loan‐level
performance dataset for mortgages originated in the UK to study the differences in
Alastair Bigley default likelihood between loans of varying characteristics such as borrower type
+44 20 7417 6278
alastair.bigley@fitchratings.com (eg self‐employment, adverse credit information, etc) and various different product
types (eg self‐certification, loan‐to‐value ratio, interest rate, buy‐to‐let, etc).
Gregg Kohansky
+44 20 7862 4091 This report provides a useful insight into the relative drivers of default among UK
gregg.kohansky@fitchratings.com
mortgages in a distressed economic environment. This information is useful for
practitioners involved in credit risk management within retail banking and investors
Related Research in retail assets as well as central banks and financial regulators. While being most
· EMEA Residential Mortgage Loss Criteria relevant for the UK, the insights gained also provide a benchmark for mortgage
(February 2010)
assets in other countries for which data histories are not yet available to the same
· EMEA Residential Mortgage Loss Criteria
Addendum ‐ UK Prime and degree. The key findings can be summarised as follows:
UK Non‐Conforming (February 2010)
1. Most drivers of default for prime mortgages are also relevant for non‐
conforming mortgages (eg original loan‐to‐value ratio, debt‐to‐income ratio,
interest‐only loans and self‐employment).
2. An exception is the status of income documentation, as fast‐track mortgages in
the prime sector do not appear generically more risky than income‐verified
loans, while self‐certification mortgages in the non‐conforming sector invariably
turn out to be more risky than those originated with certified income. On these
grounds, it looks doubtful that fast‐track processing in UK prime lending is
generically comparable to self‐certification in the non‐conforming sector.
3. Drivers of repossessions are largely similar to drivers of arrears. However, some
variables (such as the debt‐to‐income ratio) have lower explanatory power on
repossessions while others have higher explanatory power (buy‐to‐let and right‐
to‐buy).
4. Adverse borrower information dominates any other risk factor. This is
consistent with the market convention to separate prime from non‐conforming
originations.
5. Despite the limited time span of the data history, some trends of risk indicators
over time can also be identified. For example, there is evidence of clear
problems with new‐build properties for the 2006 and 2007 vintages (which can
be attributed to a loosening of underwriting procedures) and an increasing
impact of self‐employment on defaults (which can be attributed to self‐
employed individuals being more vulnerable to general economic deterioration
compared to employees).
The results from this analysis have been taken into consideration in the update of
the UK residential mortgage default criteria, ie in particular, the foreclosure
frequency adjustments (please refer to the report “EMEA Residential Mortgage Loss
Criteria Addendum – UK Prime and UK Non‐Conforming”, 23 February 2010, for
more details). The analysis was used to assess the key drivers of foreclosure
frequency on a loan‐by‐loan basis and the size of their impact within Fitch’s
residential mortgage loss criteria. Both sources of information were then used to
determine the adjustments for loan and borrower characteristics that are applied
to the loan‐level base foreclosure frequency. Please note, however, that the overall
level of foreclosure frequencies is not addressed by this study.
Implications for UK Residential Mortgage Loss Criteria
Fitch uses a combination of both quantitative modelling and qualitative analysis
· Fitch combines when deriving foreclosure frequency criteria in its default analysis. The results from
quantitative modelling and the analysis described in this study have been used in the recent update of the UK
qualitative analysis when residential mortgage loss criteria. They form an important element in the
deriving foreclosure identification of the key drivers of foreclosure frequency among mortgage loans.
frequency criteria The results also help to size the impact of various loan and borrower characteristics
on the foreclosure frequency. The results from this analysis are not directly
translated into Fitch’s criteria assumptions as they only provide insight into
historical dependencies between foreclosure frequency and certain risk
characteristics. These insights are interpreted in light of the agency’s experience
and understanding of the UK mortgage market and influence Fitch’s view of the
likelihood of foreclosure in an expected scenario and under stress scenarios.
Fitch makes use of qualitative considerations, particularly when the number of
observations or the quality of data appears insufficient to describe the actual risk
factors that are driving borrower behaviour. For example, the agency’s multivariate
analysis set out below shows loans extended for the purpose of remortgaging to be
more risky than loans extended for the purchase of a house. The reason for
remortgaging was unavailable in the data to specifically ascertain the driving factor
behind the results (for example, whether the borrower remortgaged to get a more
favourable interest rate or whether it was done to consolidate debt from several
loan obligations, such as an auto loan or outstanding amounts on credit cards).
A further investigation of the results in light of background information on
marketing and underwriting practices across lenders suggested that the remortgage
activity is not directly related to higher default risk. In fact, remortgaging is a
common phenomenon in the UK prime mortgage market, with borrowers shopping
for a better rate. Instead, it is remortgaging activity particularly related to debt
consolidation that is associated with higher risk. Fitch further reasons that equity
withdrawal via cash extraction is a viable product only in a rising housing market. In
future, remortgages are more likely to be for better financing options than for
lifestyle funding via equity withdrawal. Therefore, the agency does not generically
raise the foreclosure frequency of all remortgage loans. If there is a concern
regarding a lender’s treatment in relation to equity withdrawal, Fitch will consider
this on a transaction‐by‐transaction basis and size potential adjustments based on
the bespoke information received.
There are also cases where Fitch is aware of risks associated with particular loan
types but sufficient evidence has not yet been collected to confirm or refute
concerns with these loan types. Long‐term interest‐only loans are a relevant case in
point. Such loans are considered to have a greater likelihood of default due to the
risk that the borrower may be unable to make the large principal payment upon
Data and Summary Statistics
Fitch has collected a unique dataset on over 700,000 mortgage loans drawn from UK
· The database consists of residential mortgage‐backed securities (RMBS) rated by the agency. Most of the
700,000 mortgage loans dataset relates to originations between 2004 and 2007 by a variety of UK lenders in
drawn from Fitch‐rated UK the prime and non‐conforming sectors. The data is representative of the overall
RMBS market, as it covers a wide spectrum of originators and shows a typical regional
distribution across the UK.
Coverage of Dataset
Tables 1A and 1B show the number of loans in the dataset by transaction for non‐
conforming and prime, respectively. For the non‐conforming sector, two separate
datasets are shown: first, where performance information was recorded in terms of
repossessions (repossession information) and, second, where performance
information was recorded by number of months in arrears (arrears information).
Most of the repossession information relates to loans that were repossessed in 2007
and 2008 (see Table 2). For the prime sector, only information on arrears was
considered.
16 60
(Loans 90ever (prime)/
14 50
(non‐conforming))
12
(Loans 90ever
10 40
8 30
6 20
4
2 10
0 0
Missing Pre 2000 2000‐2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Source: Fitch
Descriptive Statistics on Key Risk Factors
The key risk factors that are analysed in this study are set out below.
Non‐conforming Prime
Source: Fitch
Recent literature on mortgage default drivers usually associates the OLTV with the
willingness to pay since the leverage of the borrower indicates the degree of
commitment to the investment. Between 2005 and 2007, UK lenders relaxed
Non‐conforming Prime
Source: Fitch
1
Weighted‐average LTVs are higher by 3‐5% but the overall trends are preserved. Fitch does not
report weighted‐average LTVs because the multivariate regressions are numbers‐based and
weight each observation equally
Multivariate Results
Both a univariate analysis and a multivariate regression were carried out, using the
default indicators and loan and borrower characteristics as introduced in the previous
sub‐section. The univariate analysis helps to gauge the potential predictive power of
single risk factors, but does not control for the influence of other factors
simultaneously. The multivariate regression is a more sophisticated technique as it
allows one to consider the simultaneous interaction of the risk factors. For these
reasons, only the multivariate analysis results are reported here. For details on the
univariate analysis, please refer to the technical study by Zaidi and Mitropoulos (2009).
Methodological Remarks
The following logistic model is estimated to predict the factors driving probability
· A logistic regression was of default of a mortgage loan:
applied
Pr(Default)= 1/(1+exp(‐bx)) (1)
Whereby b is the vector of coefficients to be estimated and x is the vector of risk
factors, ie borrower characteristics, loan characteristics and control variables such
as dummy variables for the originators. The disturbance term follows a logistic
distribution with a fixed variance.
Regressions have been performed on both the 90ever indicator and the indicator for
repossession. All key variables listed in the section entitled Loan and Borrower
Characteristics were used in a series of regressions, taking into account the limited
availability of some factors for certain transactions.
Interaction effects were also introduced to determine any risk‐layering in different
product and borrower types. A number of interactions were tested, including
various combinations between high OLTVs, self‐certified, self‐employed, adverse
credit, remortgaging and interest‐only loans.
Most Drivers of Default for Prime are Also Relevant for Non‐Conforming
The regression results suggest that — aside from adverse credit information (such as
· Most Drivers of Default for CCJs, bankruptcy orders, IVAs or prior arrears) that characterise the subprime
Prime are Also Relevant segment — there are very similar drivers of default in both sectors. High‐OLTV loans,
for Non‐Conforming interest‐only loans and remortgages are defaulting significantly more often than
average for both prime and non‐conforming.
Fast‐Track Loans
The evidence from Fitch’s regression analysis also shows that, in most cases, UK
· Fast‐track loans and loans fast‐track loans have a lower probability of default compared to fully income‐
to first‐time buyers do not verified loans. As this evidence is not consistent across all lenders and the economic
appear more risky than magnitude of this effect is small, Fitch will consider the treatment of fast‐track
average after controlling loans on a transaction‐by‐transaction basis and based on the lenders’ origination
for other characteristics and servicing practices.
Interest‐Only Loans
The effect on a relative basis of interest‐only loans varies across prime and non‐
conforming regressions but is in the order of between 7% and 30%. There are two
types of risk associated with interest‐only loans: (i) borrowers select interest‐only
mortgages due to affordability constraints and hence have a higher likelihood of
default; (ii) the borrower is unable to make the large principal payment upon
maturity. The regression only accounts for the former effect because the dataset
does not span a long enough time to allow for observations of interest‐only loans
that have reached maturity.
However, Fitch accounts for both these effects when deriving its assumptions for
the foreclosure frequency adjustment of interest‐only loans. Based on the
regression results, the agency assigns a new product hit of 10% to interest‐only
loans and retains the additional 10%‐30% balloon payment hit based on the
remaining term to maturity of the loan.
First‐Time Buyers
Finally, first‐time buyers do not have significantly different probabilities of default
when all other factors are controlled for. Any difference in overall default
probability between first‐time buyers and those who are moving house can be
explained by other factors, eg differences in the OLTV.
Remortgaging
Fitch’s regressions show that remortgage loans have a higher probability of default
than loans extended for property purchase. This was explored in more detail in the
technical paper by Zaidi and Mitropoulos (2009). The analysis suggests that the
significant coefficient is actually functioning not only as an indicator for ordinary
remortgaging but also as a proxy for debt consolidation. Borrowers may withdraw
equity from their home to consolidate (and repay) debts that they have built up.
But since debt consolidation is rarely recorded as the motivation for remortgaging,
it is difficult to clearly distinguish between debt consolidation and standard
remortgaging. There was also some evidence of risk layering between those
borrowers remortgaging and adverse credit history. While this coefficient was not
robust across all vintages, it does suggest that remortgaging may have been used
during these periods of house price rises (by all borrowers, but particularly adverse
Summary of Findings and Concluding Remarks
Fitch’s study broadly confirms many conventional assumptions on the relative
indicators of default risk of UK mortgage loans. In particular, the agency find’s that
some risk factors commonly viewed as most important for the risk assessment are
indeed reliable predictors of relative risk for both the prime and the non‐
conforming sectors, in particular, the original loan‐to‐value ratio and to some
degree the debt‐to‐income ratio. Fitch also finds that the separation into prime and
subprime lending can be justified on the grounds that adverse credit information is
a major predictor of default. Otherwise, standard indicators of relative risk, such as
interest‐only loans, self‐certification and self‐employment, can be confirmed in this
study. The report does not confirm that waiving the income verification as done for
fast‐track mortgages in the prime sector is similarly detrimental as the option of
self‐certification in the non‐conforming sector.
In addition, this report is able to show that most risk factors are robust to the
default definition, ie there is no significant difference between the results on
90ever delinquencies and repossessions. This is helpful for future research as
delinquency data are more abundant and useful as leading indicators compared to
repossessions, which are recorded only with several months delay. A few exceptions
to this are the limited explanatory power of the debt‐to‐income ratio and the
strong positive significance of the indicators for buy‐to‐let and right‐to‐buy
mortgages in the repossession data.
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